Ohtani Thread - Special Sheriff's Edition (Update: confirmed going to the Dodgers)

[Terminator]

Bo seems hellbent on testing FA and getting top dollar. I think a team friendly extension for Vlad could be doable. Show him the Olson deal and tell him that’s as high as he’s getting and he might consider it.

 

But neither is a must have. We can find 4 WAR guys in FA for 150 mil.

[Olerud363]

Money for what Ohtani brings as a unicorn is one thing for Rogers. Nobody else comes close from a marketing/keep Corp money flowing into newly renovated stadium perspective to justify ticket prices increases.

 

I wonder what the "Frank Thomas/Young Albert Pujols" version of Vlad would have been worth.

[Olerud363]

Bo seems hellbent on testing FA and getting top dollar. I think a team friendly extension for Vlad could be doable. Show him the Olson deal and tell him that’s as high as he’s getting and he might consider it.

 

But neither is a must have. We can find 4 WAR guys in FA for 150 mil.

 

That's the bright spot. Bo and Vlad got 4.8 fWAR combined last year. Hell it's like we already lost them. I think the last 3 years Vlad/Bo went 11 - 8 - 5 in terms of WAR. And it made 0 significant difference in the win total (about 90 each year). Now it did hit the run differential a bit.

 

Team is built around some 2-3 WAR homegrowns (Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Kirk, Jansen) and savy free agent signings. The current crop of prospects (Barger, Schneider, Orelivis, Roden, Howritz, etc.) may be able to play the 2-3 WAR role.

 

So why exactly is this a 2 year window? Just develop some 3 WAR players and keep making 3-5 year free agent signings.

[Terminator]

Will be interesting to see how the market for all these mid guys develops. The rich teams seem to be spending but there are a lot of small market and mid tier teams losing their regional TV deals which could prevent them from spending.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think the Padres are done unloading salary. ChiSox same? If Jays have big dollars available, then given the FA market now and in the future, as suggested on here before gotta explore taking on bad contracts to get someone like a Robert. Edited December 11, 2023 by Jimcanuck

[wilko]

Imagine paying $700 million for a DH lol

[max silver]

Imagine paying $700 million for a DH lol

 

It's most likely DH only for 1 season and this DH was baseball's best hitter last season. Still absolutely crazy money for sure though.

[BigCecil]

I wonder what the "Frank Thomas/Young Albert Pujols" version of Vlad would have been worth.

 

Bo is going to Free Agency unless we massively overpay 100%, and Vlad is an enigma. I'm ready to move on from either or both for the right opportunity (s).

 

4.8 combined WAR in 2023, most of that from Bo, doesn't scream superstar giant contract(s). 2024 is a big year for them and our org.

[wilko]

Bo is going to Free Agency unless we massively overpay 100%, and Vlad is an enigma. I'm ready to move on from either or both for the right opportunity (s).

 

4.8 combined WAR in 2023, most of that from Bo, doesn't scream superstar giant contract(s). 2024 is a big year for them and our org.

 

I'd be scared to lock up Bo long term.. Soon as his hit tool fades he's Javier Baez.

[glory]

I'd be scared to lock up Bo long term.. Soon as his hit tool fades he's Javier Baez.

 

Yeah Bo on a long term expensive FA deal is scary due to his profile. Use him for the 6 years of control in his prime and then let someone else deal with the overpay. I still think Vlad will get extended at some point, especially now with the Ohtani thing not panning out. When it happens and for how long/much is still TBD.

 

I think trying to take advantage of the teams dumping salary due to the RSN issues might be the Jays best bet for 2024. Take on as much (reasonable) salary as possible to lessen the return going the other way. I don’t think they should buy high on Cody or bring back Chapman just because they have money to spend in a weak FA class. Although I can see why they’d prefer free agency as the Jays do need to get more help from the farm so it would be better to avoid trading anyone of significance.

[Laika]

Yeah Bo on a long term expensive FA deal is scary due to his profile. Use him for the 6 years of control in his prime and then let someone else deal with the overpay. I still think Vlad will get extended at some point, especially now with the Ohtani thing not panning out. When it happens and for how long/much is still TBD.

 

I think trying to take advantage of the teams dumping salary due to the RSN issues might be the Jays best bet for 2024. Take on as much (reasonable) salary as possible to lessen the return going the other way. I don’t think they should buy high on Cody or bring back Chapman just because they have money to spend in a weak FA class. Although I can see why they’d prefer free agency as the Jays do need to get more help from the farm so it would be better to avoid trading anyone of significance.

 

Which teams are affected by the TV contract thing? I know of the Padres and Twins. Who else?

[glory]

Which teams are affected by the TV contract thing? I know of the Padres and Twins. Who else?

 

I think Cleveland, Texas (not likely to dump salary though), and Milwaukee are among the others but not exactly sure of the entire list.

[Laika]

I think Cleveland, Texas (not likely to dump salary though), and Milwaukee are among the others but not exactly sure of the entire list.

 

Not many candidates to take on from those 5 teams. I can't see taking Correa, Bogaerts, Machado, Cronenworth, or Yelich as reasonable decisions. Can't see Cleveland trading Ramirez or Gimenez, or SDP trading Tatis.

 

Actually, Yelich vs. Bellinger is funny. Yelich has 5/$130M left and is 32. Bellinger probably wants 8/$200 or so and is 28. Both coming off a 4.1 fWAR year.

[Terminator]

it’s almost half the league, potentially.

 

“When the season ended, the Minnesota Twins’ deal with DSG expired, putting them in the same boat as the Padres and Diamondbacks. That leaves 11 teams still in contract with DSG: the Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers. Reportedly, the Guardians and Rangers are most in danger of being dropped next.”

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/how-the-collapse-of-the-regional-sports-network-is-affecting-mlb-economics-now-and-in-the-future-155227283.html

[Terminator]

Not many candidates to take on from those 5 teams. I can't see taking Correa, Bogaerts, Machado, Cronenworth, or Yelich as reasonable decisions. Can't see Cleveland trading Ramirez or Gimenez, or SDP trading Tatis.

 

Actually, Yelich vs. Bellinger is funny. Yelich has 5/$130M left and is 32. Bellinger probably wants 8/$200 or so and is 28. Both coming off a 4.1 fWAR year.

 

One small thing about Bellinger is that the Giants are similar to us in that they want to spend money but have had a little trouble doing so. But they are a horrible fit for Bellinger. Both sides would be stupid to have him go there. So perhaps that’s one less suitor.

[Laika]

One small thing about Bellinger is that the Giants are similar to us in that they want to spend money but have had a little trouble doing so. But they are a horrible fit for Bellinger. Both sides would be stupid to have him go there. So perhaps that’s one less suitor.

 

SFG is horrible for every hitter.

 

I was listening to a podcast the other day and they were talking about Chapman and SFG. Apparently Marco Luciano is going to be their SS so having a GG 3B would be huge for them. But think about Chapman's battel ball profile in that park...

[Laika]

7/$259M or so remaining for Mike Trout. I guess he's just retiring as an Angel

[Dick_Pole]

it’s almost half the league, potentially.

 

“When the season ended, the Minnesota Twins’ deal with DSG expired, putting them in the same boat as the Padres and Diamondbacks. That leaves 11 teams still in contract with DSG: the Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers. Reportedly, the Guardians and Rangers are most in danger of being dropped next.”

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/how-the-collapse-of-the-regional-sports-network-is-affecting-mlb-economics-now-and-in-the-future-155227283.html

 

As someone who is experienced in day trading bankrupt garbage, this could get real ugly, real fast. I wonder if MLB will experience contagion similar to what the regional banks in the U.S. did a while ago. Meaning the haves will be able to pick off assets cheaply from the have nots who are all busy cutting payroll. Mark Shapiro could be the new Jamie Dimon.

[Omar]

Perhaps some idiots are mad because we didn't get him. However the majority are mad because of the way it was reported, which is totally justifiable. A cardinal rule of life is that you do not give big news, good or bad, that is not true. No excuse at all. Imagine you are going in for a cancer test, and the doc says all clear, you celebrate for an hour, then they call you back. Sorry you got 6 months to live. Imagine you make a pitch for life changing venture capitol for your company, and your banking partner tells you they got a couple of million from an Angel investor... then 10 hours later calls you back, no they invested in another company. In baseball terms this is a franchise changing signing, and the reporting was unacepteble and immoral.

 

Probably no reason to be mad at the Blue Jays management for this one. But mad at reporters? Mad at Ohtani's agents (if they had a role in letting the 'confirmed to Blue Jays' narrative get out of hand). Mad at Dodgers Nation? Hell yes. Who the hell really knows how intentional all this was by these parties. Even the reasonable posters like Laika seem to be implying there was a little nefarious actions on their part. Not acceptable at all in anyway.

 

Multiple people should be fired and told they have to go live in van down by the river. Biggest flaw in our society is there is no intermediate punishment between jail and getting off scott-free. When you mis-behave you should be fined a total equal to your net-worth, then have to go live in a van by the river. This is what should happen to Ohtani's agent and several reporters.

 

Yeah, I don't see the reaction on this board that DP is referring to. Most are just disappointed with the outcome but happy we were in the running. Were we played? Possibly, but all is fair in love and war....and free agency it seems.

[BigCecil]

Interesting just listened to Jim Bowden Ohtani signing analysis FWIW:

 

- Said he "knows" for certain LAD upped their offer last Friday.

 

- Jays would have landed him if LAD didn't step up. So it was real but the LAD were always going to step up.

 

- Said Jays were used in negotiation to drive up $ in the deal, but not in a pejorative manner. Its just business. (Agree with that take)

 

- Said we should get Chappy, Belly and Hoskins and just go for it. Guesses 7/181 for Belly (Covid and shoulder injury really hurt him as LAD)

 

- Said our Farms too weak to deal into enough improvement. "Have to play checkbook baseball". And don't trade Manoah - value too low.

[Abomination]

Interesting just listened to Jim Bowden Ohtani signing analysis FWIW:

 

- Said he "knows" for certain LAD upped their offer last Friday.

 

- Jays would have landed him if LAD didn't step up. So it was real but the LAD were always going to step up.

 

- Said Jays were used in negotiation to drive up $ in the deal, but not in a pejorative manner. Its just business. (Agree with that take)

 

- Said we should get Chappy, Belly and Hoskins and just go for it. Guesses 7/181 for Belly (Covid and shoulder injury really hurt him as LAD)

 

- Said our Farms too weak to deal into enough improvement. "Have to play checkbook baseball". And don't trade Manoah - value too low.

 

Can't really argue with any of that.

[BTS]

Interesting just listened to Jim Bowden Ohtani signing analysis FWIW:

 

- Said he "knows" for certain LAD upped their offer last Friday.

 

- Jays would have landed him if LAD didn't step up. So it was real but the LAD were always going to step up.

 

- Said Jays were used in negotiation to drive up $ in the deal, but not in a pejorative manner. Its just business. (Agree with that take)

 

- Said we should get Chappy, Belly and Hoskins and just go for it. Guesses 7/181 for Belly (Covid and shoulder injury really hurt him as LAD)

 

- Said our Farms too weak to deal into enough improvement. "Have to play checkbook baseball". And don't trade Manoah - value too low.

 

350M or whatever for Chapman and Bellinger would be so gross.

[Eat My Shatkins]

350M or whatever for Chapman and Bellinger would be so gross.

 

Would be scary as hell haha

[hanton]

Interesting just listened to Jim Bowden Ohtani signing analysis FWIW:

 

- Said he "knows" for certain LAD upped their offer last Friday.

 

- Jays would have landed him if LAD didn't step up. So it was real but the LAD were always going to step up.

 

- Said Jays were used in negotiation to drive up $ in the deal, but not in a pejorative manner. Its just business. (Agree with that take)

 

- Said we should get Chappy, Belly and Hoskins and just go for it. Guesses 7/181 for Belly (Covid and shoulder injury really hurt him as LAD)

 

- Said our Farms too weak to deal into enough improvement. "Have to play checkbook baseball". And don't trade Manoah - value too low.

 

Fianlly, someone actually mentioned this, rarely ever talked about esspecially the part of the lockdowns/pandemic and the impact to his rehab

[BTS]

- Manoah for Ha-Seong Kim or Jorge Polanco

- Sign JD Martinez for 2/40

- Blow their load on Yamamoto for like 10/270 or whatever if they think he's an ace

- Bring Gurriel back for like 3/50

 

C - Kirk

1B - Vlad

2B - Kim or Polanco

3B - Schneider

SS - Bo

CF - Varsho

LF - Gurriel

RF - Springer

DH - Martinez

 

Jansen/Horwitz/Biggio/Lukes on the bench

 

Gausman

Yamamoto

Berrios

Bassitt

Kikuchi

 

Playoffs will be easy to make

[Jimcanuck]

- Manoah for Ha-Seong Kim or Jorge Polanco

- Sign JD Martinez for 2/40

- Blow their load on Yamamoto for like 10/270 or whatever if they think he's an ace

- Bring Gurriel back for like 3/50

 

C - Kirk

1B - Vlad

2B - Kim or Polanco

3B - Schneider

SS - Bo

CF - Varsho

LF - Gurriel

RF - Springer

DH - Martinez

 

Jansen/Horwitz/Biggio/Lukes on the bench

 

Gausman

Yamamoto

Berrios

Bassitt

Kikuchi

 

Playoffs will be easy to make

 

You lost me at Jorge Polanco

[Frenchsoup]

Polanco is a really good player buddddddd

[Abomination]

- Manoah for Ha-Seong Kim or Jorge Polanco

- Sign JD Martinez for 2/40

- Blow their load on Yamamoto for like 10/270 or whatever if they think he's an ace

- Bring Gurriel back for like 3/50

 

C - Kirk

1B - Vlad

2B - Kim or Polanco

3B - Schneider

SS - Bo

CF - Varsho

LF - Gurriel

RF - Springer

DH - Martinez

 

Jansen/Horwitz/Biggio/Lukes on the bench

 

Gausman

Yamamoto

Berrios

Bassitt

Kikuchi

 

Playoffs will be easy to make

 

I'm not sure I like the idea of Schneider full time at 3rd. I think ideally he slots in as a guy who is more of a super utility and maybe plays 4-5 times a week between 2nd, 3rd, lf, dh, etc. I don't like selling low on Manoah either. I think we need to slot him into the #5 spot and give him the rope to work through it (assuming he hasn't already this offseason).

 

I kinda feel like we have to go after Bellinger, as scary as that is.

[Laika]

- Manoah for Ha-Seong Kim or Jorge Polanco

- Sign JD Martinez for 2/40

- Blow their load on Yamamoto for like 10/270 or whatever if they think he's an ace

- Bring Gurriel back for like 3/50

 

C - Kirk

1B - Vlad

2B - Kim or Polanco

3B - Schneider

SS - Bo

CF - Varsho

LF - Gurriel

RF - Springer

DH - Martinez

 

Jansen/Horwitz/Biggio/Lukes on the bench

 

Gausman

Yamamoto

Berrios

Bassitt

Kikuchi

 

Playoffs will be easy to make

 

I hate all of this

 

except for Yamamoto

 

I am signing:

OF --- Jung-Hoo Lee (4/$60) or Brantley (1/$10)

DH/1B --- Belt (1/$8) or JDM (1/$12) or Pederson (1/$12)

SP --- Paxton (1/$10) or Montas (1/$8)

IF --- some 1 year geezer like Longoria or Urshela or Tim Anderson

 

Schneider is my 2B.

 

I'd sign someone like Tony Kemp to be the 2B/OF guy on the bench. 1 WAR projection.

 

Basically, just patch all the holes with the best 1 year commitment you can find.

 

Work the trade table hard all offseason for better players.

[Frenchsoup]

Your not getting Jung Hoo lee for that, guarenteed over 100 million or theres something wrong with 30 gms out there