2024 MLB Draft Thread

[Spanky99]

f*** a 1st round catcher. How often do they work out. Find some international guy or later pick

 

Bag of hammers.

[Laika]

I'm hoping that's at 136, lol.

 

He's like the Jordan Walker starter package, except LHB

 

Would be fine in R2 and maybe even fine under slot in R1 depending on the rest of the draft

[Laika]

f*** a 1st round catcher. How often do they work out. Find some international guy or later pick

 

No you see we need our own Kevin Parada

[Carlos Danger]

I want to check out pics of their girlfriends and take the guy with the hottest one.

[connorp]

Bag of hammers.

 

The unscientific nature of the whole think is prettt hilarious. Like I’m sure you could see some guys drafting in fantasy leagues may outperform many GMs and their billion dollar companies, with guys with 30years of field experience. It’s kind of like horse racing handicapping, good to know the basics and after that, digest as much data as you want, some 7yo picking horses by colors will beat you

[Pendleton]

I want this guy but doubt he gets to us... BA made a mistake leaving him off that last listing...

 

 

 

Ahh, nevermind I see him now at 9, lol.

 

Kellon Lindsay is the other one who seems really interesting. 80 grade athlete with a feel for hitting

[Spanky99]

He's like the Jordan Walker starter package, except LHB

 

Would be fine in R2 and maybe even fine under slot in R1 depending on the rest of the draft

 

Meh...

[Spanky99]

ARTICLEDRAFT

Six Polarizing Prospects In The 2024 MLB Draft Class

July 12, 2024

July 12, 2024

Carlos Collazo

0 Comments

 

 

Image credit: Brody Brecht (Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)

 

 

It’s fun to disagree about players.

 

Every year some players seem to be more polarizing than others and this year is no different. Below we look into six players who have wide-ranging opinions from the scouting industry and try and examine the pro and con cases for each.

 

 

BA 500 Draft Rankings

Our final big board is here. See the top 500 prospects and updated scouting reports.

 

Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina

As we wrote earlier this season, Honeycutt has arguably the highest upside along with the biggest risk of any player in contention to go in the first round. He has almost every tool teams look for. Honeycutt has big power—he is North Carolina’s all-time home run leader (61)—and perhaps even greater speed. He is the first Division I player to hit more than 60 career homers and steal more than 70 bags. He’s also a two-time ACC defensive player of the year. Not to mention, the face of North Carolina’s run to the College World Series in 2024.

 

So what’s the catch?

 

Simply put: Some scouts and teams wonder whether Honeycutt’s hit tool will hold up. Interestingly, though Honeycutt hit a career-best .318 this season, his contact and strikeout rates actually regressed. Honeycutt made contact less than 70% of the time this year to go along with an 83-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

 

Those are concerning figures, though our piece also points out teams are showing more leniency in recent years when it comes to strikeout rates as they rise at all levels of the game. Based on tools and athleticism, Honeycutt is one of the elite choices in the draft. How teams feel about developing enough contact skills to maximize the rest of the game will determine how high his name is called Sunday night.

 

 

Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State

Much of Honeycutt’s writeup also applies to Jordan. Just read the first line of his BA 500 scouting report: Jordan was a high-profile prospect coming out of high school who stood out for his multi-sport athleticism, physicality and power-speed combination.

 

Jordan is less refined than Honeycutt, likely because he was also a star football player in high school, but he faces some of the same contact vs. power questions. Jordan is also a plus runner, but he’s less refined in the field as well, which is why he checks in at No. 35 in our final big board.

 

Still, Jordan hit .354/.459/.671 with 20 homers in the SEC at Mississippi State and he has 70-grade raw power and some of the best bat speed you’ll find in this class. Yet his contact rate and chase percentage were even a tick worse than Honeycutt’s.

 

A team bullish on its ability to coax more contact ability might fall in love with Jordan. Others might find such swing-and-miss disqualifying for a first-round pick. But in a down year overall, Jordan’s power and speed should become appealing to teams late in day one, and he just might end up making someone look very smart for taking a gamble.

 

Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, Jonesboro, Ark.

Teams seem to be lamenting the lack of exciting high school hitting profiles in the middle of this year’s first round, but what about Caldwell? He was a tremendous in-game performer throughout the 2023 showcase circuit and features an enticing blend of contact skills, double-plus speed and strong center field defense.

 

Additionally, he is one of the youngest players in the class, and will be only 18.1 on draft day, which is a significant piece for model-heavy teams that prioritize age—especially so for hitters. There are a few potential landing spots for him in the first round but perhaps less than you’d expect given his skill set and the relative weakness of the prep class.

 

Size is the question mark for Caldwell.

 

He’s listed at 5-foot-9, 182 pounds (and might actually be a bit shorter than that) and some teams wonder about how much power he’ll get to and whether he can hold up over the course of a major league season. There are teams who view him as more of a supplemental first or second-rounder because of his size which makes us think about 2023 shortstop Kevin McGonigle. McGonigle ranked No. 25 in the class a year ago but slid to the supplemental first with the Tigers where he signed for $2.8 million. That pick has looked pretty good so far.

 

Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa

Brecht is the peak example of a polarizing pitching profile for this year’s class.

 

His pure stuff is comparable to Chase Burns at the very top of the class that sits in the 96-97 mph range and has been up to 101 mph with cutting life. He has also earned double-plus projections on his wicked, upper-80s slider and is one of the most impressive pure athletes in the class. Before this season he also played for Iowa’s football team as a receiver.

 

The rub with Brecht is that he simply struggles to find the strike zone. His 17% career walk rate is higher than any college pitcher taken among the first 30 picks in the bonus pool era, and he carries significantly more reliever risk than teams typically associate with round one pitchers.

 

Because of that he’s simply not a first-round option for many teams, though others seem more willing to take a shot on his immense upside and/or believe their pitching development groups can help him throw more strikes moving forward.

 

 

PJ Morlando, 1B/OF, Summerville (S.C.) HS

 

Morlando entered this draft cycle as one of the top-ranked high school players in the class, consistently ranked right alongside Konnor Griffin—who currently stands as the top prep in the class and a potential top-10 pick.

 

Among prep hitters, he has perhaps the best combination of pure hitting ability and raw power, with a lengthy track record of performance against the best arms in the class. Morlando’s strength and bat speed allows him to generate easy plus raw power, and he also turned in perhaps the most impressive batting practice display a few weeks ago at the MLB Draft combine.

 

However, scouts wanted to see him hit for more power than he showed this spring (though he was pitched around plenty), and there are teams who are simply skeptical of a likely corner profile from the high school ranks who is also going to be 19 on draft day.

 

 

Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky

 

Waldschmidt was one of the most prominent helium college players in the class and finished an excellent 2024 season with a .333/.469/.610 slash line 14 home runs and 25 stolen bases. He also checks a lot of hitting data boxes with an 80% contact rate, 88% in-zone contact rate, 18% chase rate and 108.7-mph 90th percentile exit velocity.

 

Walking nearly as often as he struck out is a big boost to his profile as well.

 

More than maybe any other player in the class, Waldschmidt seems to divide the most analytically-inclined scouting departments and the teams who value their in-person scouting assessments above all else. Those scouts look at Waldschmidt and wonder about the steepness of his swing and how that will play at the next level, and also aren’t too excited about his defensive ability in left field or how his athleticism and speed works on the field despite his 25 stolen bases.

 

If he had played center field all season or looked better in left field he would perhaps be less polarizing. Those high on Waldschmidt see a well-rounded SEC college hitter with power and speed and those lower see a right-right corner outfielder who will need significant swing work and defensive refinement in pro ball.

[Spanky99]

ARTICLEDRAFT

Chase Burns’ Slider, Hagen Smith’s Fastball & The 9 Nastiest Pitches In The 2024 Draft

July 11, 2024

July 11, 2024

Peter Flaherty

0 Comments

 

 

Image credit: Kate Woolson/Texas Rangers/Getty Images

 

 

Readers scrolling through our final BA 500 big board will find pitch grades for the top 200 prospects. So we thought it’d be fun to examine the nastiest offerings in the 2024 MLB Draft class.

 

Some pitchers below, like Chase Burns and Hagen Smith, have multiple double-plus pitches, but for the sake of the exercise I’ll focus on one per player. All of the individual pitches discussed below all grade out as 70s. You can also find individual MLB pitch comps for the top five college players on our board here.

 

 

Chase Burns’ slider

Though he’s armed with a thunderous fastball that routinely eclipses triple-digits, Burns’ calling card has long been his hellacious, upper-80s-to-low-90s power slider. Not only is it a pitch he throws with conviction, but he also has an advanced feel for it. It takes what looks like a hard left turn—with some depth—as it approaches the plate, and this season it held opposing hitters to a .084/.141/.139 slash line with a gaudy 64% whiff rate.

 

 

Hagen Smith’s fastball

Like Burns, Smith’s slider is also a 70, but I opted to highlight his fastball here. It sits in the mid-to-upper-90s, and this season it was up to 100. Smith has some natural funk in his delivery which adds to the pitches’ effectiveness. It explodes out of his hand with both run and ride through the strike zone, and it especially lively when located in the top half of the strike zone and on his arm side. This spring, it held hitters to a .172 average with an impressive 42% whiff rate.

 

 

Cam Caminiti’s fastball

At the prep level, Caminiti’s heater is the best of its kind. An athletic lefthander with a loose, easy operation, Caminiti’s fastball sat in the 92-96 range this spring and topped out at 98. It’s most effective, and generates the most swing-and-miss, at the top of the zone. The fact that there’s some crossfire in his operation from the left side only adds to its effectiveness, and it figures to be the headliner weapon of his arsenal as he progresses through pro ball.

 

William Schmidt’s curveball

When focusing solely on secondary offerings, Schmidt’s bender is the most lethal at the prep level. It has big-time depth with 12-6 shape, and he consistently spins it in the 2,900 or higher range. He has an advanced feel for the offering and can not only land it for strikes, but uses it to generate plenty of whiffs in and out of the strike zone.

 

 

Brody Brecht’s slider

From a sheer stuff standpoint, Brecht might be the only other pitcher in this year’s draft class who can go toe-to-toe with the likes of Chase Burns and Hagen Smith. In addition to his high-90s riding fastball, Brecht features a demonic high-80s gyro slider that flashes sharp, two-plane break. He has a better feel for his slider than he does his fastball, and he has shown the ability to land the pitch for strikes. This year, Brecht’s slider garnered an eye-popping 56% whiff rate and held hitters to a measly .119/.272/.216 slash line.

 

 

Carson Wiggins’ fastball

The younger brother of Cubs prospect Jaxon Wiggins, Carson has big-time arm strength himself. The power righthander’s fastball sat in the 93-97 range this spring, topping out at 99 and overpowering high school hitters. He pairs his fastball with a slider that flashes above-average, making for a pretty deadly one-two punch. Like his brother, the key for Wiggins is being around the zone consistently, which will help his loud arsenal play up.

 

Chris Cortez’s fastball

One of the most effective college relievers, Cortez features a powerful one-two punch in his sinker and slider. Cortez’s slider is also a plus pitch, but his power sinker is the better of the two. It sits in the high-90s, routinely touching 100 and even 101. On top of run to the arm side, it flashes bowling-ball sinking life that bears in on the hands of righthanded hitters and down-and-away from lefthanded hitters. He dominates the bottom of the zone with it, which is also from where the vast majority of its whiffs come.

 

Carson Messina’s slider

The “little” brother of potential day one pick Cole Messina, Carson boasts a lethal, tight mid-80s slider. It has no shortage of sharpness or teeth, and it plays particularly well off a low-to-mid-90s fastball that flashes plenty of armside life. Messina’s east-west profile plays in his favor and enables him to generate plenty of swings and misses, especially with his slider.

 

LP Langevin’s fastball

Following a spotless summer in the Draft League in which he posted a 0.00 ERA with 22 strikeouts across 11.1 innings, Langevin became a household name this spring after pitching his way to a 3.73 ERA with 106 strikeouts in 62.2 innings. His fastball is one of the more fascinating pitches in this year’s draft class and is a comfortable 70 on the 20-80 scale. From a low release height, Langevin’s high-spin fastball sits 93-95 but has been up to 97 with no shortage of life through the strike zone. His VAA of -4.31 enhances the pitch even further, and this spring it generated a ridiculous 46% whiff rate.

[L54]

Curious why you say that. Because we have Kirk? Because 1st round catchers typically bust?

 

We need to go BPA, regardless of position IMO.

 

They bust, they take a long time to make an impact, their attrition rate is high

 

Taking a catcher in the first round when your farm system is bottom 5 sounds incredibly stupid unless the plan is to get him under slot

[Pendleton]

Callis and Mayo final predictions:

 

20. Blue Jays

Callis: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky

The Blue Jays are casting a wide net for college bats that includes Benge, Waldschmidt, Honeycutt, King, Sam Houston catcher Walker Janek and Louisiana State third baseman Tommy White.

 

Mayo: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest

Back to the college hitter bucket here, with King the choice over Waldschmidt, White or Janek.

[Daniel Labude]

Hoping Caminiti is there at 20 and the Jays take him

[Laika]

Oh s*** it's tonight

[connorp]

Reappeared for me.

 

Connor’s seal of approval on guys that likely will be in play

 

Brody Brecht

Theo Gillen

Tommy White

William Schmidt (extreme risk factor, not the safe play, but Jays never seem to go high ceiling and when has it worked in 20 years?

[connorp]

Hoping Caminiti is there at 20 and the Jays take him

 

He won’t be

[connorp]

They bust, they take a long time to make an impact, their attrition rate is high

 

Taking a catcher in the first round when your farm system is bottom 5 sounds incredibly stupid unless the plan is to get him under slot

 

Yeah, best strategy on a catcher is find someone with the defensive tools to be solid there and someone that will be league average bat. Jansen is a good comp for what you can look for. Don’t spend your 1st round pick chasing that. Jays seems to quite frequently take the safe approach with their 1st. Granted, except last year when they went out on a limb for sure, but maybe a bit too much.

[connorp]

I read it was regarded as weak draft but there seems to be a bunch of potential impact players through the 1st round. Even into Round 2. A lot of interesting players. I don’t know past that how deep.

[metafour]

Jays seems to quite frequently take the safe approach with their 1st. Granted, except last year when they went out on a limb for sure, but maybe a bit too much.

 

Their last 3 first round picks:

 

1) Extreme risk HS SS with massive tools.

2) High risk HS LHP with big stuff.

3) College RHP coming off TJ surgery and a Top 10 grade pre-injury.

 

Literally no "safe" picks among those three.

[Daniel Labude]

He won’t be

 

Its the MLB draft, I've seen crazier

 

I can probably bet on the Jays doing the wrong thing though

[Brownie19]

Their last 3 first round picks:

 

1) Extreme risk HS SS with massive tools.

2) High risk HS LHP with big stuff.

3) College RHP coming off TJ surgery and a Top 10 grade pre-injury.

 

Literally no "safe" picks among those three.

 

#facts

[L54]

How many rounds tonight? 1 + all the competitive balance and comp picks ?

[Laika]

How many rounds tonight? 1 + all the competitive balance and comp picks ?

 

I think round 2 as well

 

75 picks or something

[John_Havok]

MLB draft schedule 2024

Sunday, July 14 – 7 p.m. ET: Round 1, Competitive Balance Round A, Round 2, Competitive Balance Round B

 

Monday, July 15 – 2 p.m. ET: Rounds 3-10

 

Tuesday, July 16 – 2 p.m. ET: Rounds 11-20

[hanton]

How many rounds tonight? 1 + all the competitive balance and comp picks ?

 

20 rounds +

[L54]

20 rounds +

 

The boys better have the coffee on

[hanton]

plus the new prospect promotion incentive round right after round 1

 

ARI for Carrol

BAL for Gunnar

[John_Havok]

Bazzana goes 1-1

[Stangstag]

Picks 2 and 4 both from Wake Forest.

 

What a team eh

[John_Havok]

Well so far looks like MLB draft rankings are pretty solid. 6 picks made and they're all from the top 7 ranked MLB.com guys. Only #4 JJ Wetherholt hasnt gone yet.

[John_Havok]

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