Who Is the Blue Jays’ Biggest X-Factor for the Rest of 2026?

The Blue Jays are 34-38. That's one game worse than they were through 72 games in 2024. In case anyone needs reminding, they went on to sell at the deadline that year and finish with the worst record in the AL East.  

Thankfully, this year's team doesn't need to start thinking about throwing in the towel. Despite their losing record and -22 run differential, the 2026 Blue Jays are only 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.

They haven't felt like a real contender all season. They've never been more than three games above .500, and they've yet to win more than four in a row. The thing is, that's true of lots of their American League opponents too. Only five teams in the AL have a record above .500.

Before the season started, FanGraphs gave the Blue Jays 52.8% odds to make the playoffs. Seventy-two games later, those odds have fallen, but not by nearly as much as they could have. As of June 15, their odds sit at 39.6%:

Courtesy of FanGraphs

PECOTA, the projection system from Baseball Prospectus, is even higher on Toronto's postseason chances. PECOTA still thinks the Jays have a near 50% shot to reach October. 

This is good news. Despite all the injuries and slumps, the Blue Jays are still in this thing. Eventually, however, something is going to have to change. The reason their odds are still so high isn't that the projection systems think a 77-win team is going to make the playoffs. It's because the projection systems think they have the talent to turn things around. 

But it's the players who have to make that turnaround happen. That means certain guys will have to play significantly better baseball than they have to this point. Who could that be?

Blue Jays X-Factors: Honourable Mentions

Alejandro Kirk is back, and he's quickly reminding us why he's one of the best catchers in baseball. Yet, Brandon Valenzuela did such a terrific job in Kirk's absence that Kirk's return isn't what's going to turn this ship around.

Similarly, Addison Barger could be a spark for the lineup when he comes back from his second IL stint, but Toronto's other three lefty-batting corner outfielders have combined for a .776 OPS and 116 wRC+. Any playing time for Barger would just be taken away from one of Jesús Sánchez, Nathan Lukes, and Yohendrick Piñango.

Finally, I need to acknowledge the bullpen. It's hard to fathom where the Jays would be without the innings they've gotten from their four best relievers: Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers, Mason Fluharty, and Braydon Fisher.

I considered making this one of the official X-factors: "Varland, Rogers, Fluharty, and Fisher Keep Their Arms Attached to Their Bodies." However, I decided against it because this isn't something that needs to change in order for the Blue Jays to improve; it's a strength that needs to stay a strength to prevent a collapse. Don't get me wrong, it's every bit as important as the X-factors I'm about to discuss, it just belongs in a different category.

Blue Jays X-Factor: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Turns It On

This one has to happen eventually, right? Presuming the back issues that bothered Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over the weekend aren't serious, I refuse to worry about the Blue Jays' franchise player.

Yes, his prolonged slumps can be frustrating. And yes, he's currently in one of his longest slumps since his breakout in 2021. But I'm not going to ignore the fact that from 2024-25, including the playoffs, Guerrero's .390 wOBA was the fourth-highest among qualified hitters, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto.

If you're reading this, I'm sure I don't need to tell you what Guerrero can do for this team when he's hot. This Blue Jays lineup desperately needs a superstar, and Vladdy is the one who needs to fill that role.

Blue Jays X-Factor: A Healthy Shane Bieber Returns

At his very best, Shane Bieber is a top-of-the-rotation arm. Even if you write off his Cy Young-winning 2020 season as a COVID-year fluke, he pitched to a 3.22 ERA and 9.4 fWAR over the next three seasons. Last year, he gave the Blue Jays 59 innings with a 3.66 ERA between the regular season and the playoffs. The difference between a healthy Bieber and the alternative could be massive, whether that alternative is Patrick Corbin, Max Scherzer, or a bullpen game.

There's no guarantee Bieber pitches well upon his return. I'm still bracing myself to hear he's suffered a setback, or for him to come back, make one start, and wind up on the injured list again. However, there's also the very real possibility that Bieber is a multi-win upgrade for the rotation. A postseason starting four of Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and Bieber could take the Jays far. 

Blue Jays X-Factor: George Springer Bounces Back

This is the one I'm the least confident in, but it might be the most transformative. As I've written about before, George Springer was the single most important player on the 2025 Blue Jays. Not only did he lead the team in fWAR and bWAR, but his performance relative to expectations was what took the Jays from Wild Card contenders to World Series contenders. 

Right now, he's playing like 2025 never happened. His numbers to this point are exactly what I would have guessed Springer to look like in 2026... if I was guessing in 2024. 

I can't expect Springer to flip a switch and start hitting as well as he did last year. But I know it's possible, because I saw that version of him just last fall. And if he can flip that switch, a mediocre Blue Jays lineup could suddenly become much more dangerous. 

Which of these X-factors is the most important? Are there any you think I missed? Please share your thoughts in the comments underneath!