General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Terminator]

Yeah it's pretty tight from 3 to 24 to be honest

Tighter than some would think

The Nationals are assembling a really good young core after a long rebuild and have the potential to skyrocket

The Reds have a nice core and some developmental chops, they just need more resources

The Phillies competitive window might be closing soon. Long in the tooth.

The Padres have been on the brink of looking like a has-been but they went on a run this year and connorp got a little AJP chub because of it but who knows if it lasts.

The Red Sox have spiraled between big market behemoth and inept front office periods

The Rays will never again be more than a WC team

 

Yeah exactly. The difference between the Mariners/Nats and Orioles/Padres could flip over the course of a season or two.

 

I suppose there's a little more nuance to it than that. The Orioles, for example, should be good for the next few years because of a young core. But they can and probably will end up toward the bottom of the list again. Just a question of whether it's in 3 years or 6 or 7. Not exactly where you want to be even if you're a top franchise right now.

[AMS528]

To be fair - that's a pretty impressive list and nobody was complaining about our lack of development in 2022. But s*** does change quickly doesn't it? The lack of pitching has been painful. We were able to turn around a guy like Robbie Ray and make him a Cy Young winner, yet seemingly everyone else in the org has s*** the bed, including Manoah, who looked like a top of the rotation starter in 2022. I wonder how common it is for org's to go through lulls like this where nothing seems to go right. Even Cleveland right now. Bibee looks like their new stud, but Triston McKenzie fell off the face of the earth (after being great in 2022 like Manoah), Gavin Williams struggled this year, as did Logan Allen. The team who's been known for churning out great pitcher after great pitcher over the past decade is stuck starting the ghost of Alex Cobb in the ALCS (and Matt Boyd - but he's actually good). It happens to even the best (lucky for them, their pen is still incredible), as I do think things like injuries and some of the development side of things are somewhat out of their control, which can lead to peaks and valleys. The key is to avoid a long valley and unfortunately, the Jays are staring one right in the face. They are going to need to hit on some of the guys drafted over the past couple of years. Luckily, prospects/development can change pretty quickly.

 

I think the thing is, even compared to other teams that are low ranked now in terms of prospects (Braves, Padres, Angels, Giants, Astros etc.) have a few guys from recent drafts who wind up coming up and playing from a relatively recent draft. Helps the team reload quick when you can have that fast development.

 

The Jays have zero players drafted since 2020 that has taken a single AB or pitched a single pitch for the Major League team. The only player taken in any of those drafts that has played with any team is Austin Martin, the first of those picks from 2020, every single solitary player picked since Martin has not reached the majors yet.

 

That is damning I think. The Braves have had several (Strider, Schwellenbach etc.), the Padres have had Merril, a couple of other quick looks and James Wood in Washington, the Angels have had Neto along with a couple of others, the Giants have had Patrick Bailey and a few others and even the Astros who I included cause they were the absolute worst of the bunch had Spencer Arighetti this year along with everyone they traded to the Jays for Kikuchi.

 

The Jays should manage to end that run with Roden next year, but he is the only one that is particularly likely to get any ABs or innings from those years of drafts.

 

So what I wound up doing as I was writing this with too much time on my hands is look through every single team as well and the Jays are the only team in all of baseball to have zero players they have drafted since 2020 pitch or take a single AB with them. Every single other team has managed that. That's a particularly bad run even considering every other badly run team in the league.

 

Maybe some more firings were needed on the development and drafting side at a minimum.

[metafour]

You could argue that Toronto's developmental record has been the worst in baseball in recent years

 

The last good player Toronto graduate was who... Kirk? A 2021 rookie who has been a 2-4 WAR player? Not even really an impact player just an above average guy. Him or Manoah are the only candidates. Bowden Francis I guess as well if you want to be generous. And the AAAA bats like Horwitz if you want to still be generous.

 

The Angels have 2023 rookie Logan O'Hoppe, sneaky star Zach Neto also a 2023 rookie, and 2024 breakthrough arm Jose Soriano who looks like an actual SP but I suppose is in the "prove it" boat with Bowden Francis. But Neto is the best player mentioned by me so far, by MILES and miles. He's a rock solid franchise shortstop.

 

The Rockies have also developed an impact SS in Tovar. They also have an impact CF in Doyle. And a potential impact bounce back guy in Nolan Jones. And a closer who throws 100 in Vodnik, plus the sneaky good SP Ryan Feltner.

 

Why would including Horwitz be "generous"? This is why this s*** is always so melodramatic: you are by default hyper-critical of what you see yourself from your own team, but excessively complimentary to other teams.

 

Horwitz just put up 1.9 fWAR in under 100 games played. His 127 wRC+ was the 39th best in the entire damn league among players with 350 or more plate appearances. There is nothing in his hitting profile that screams "luck": he walks, doesn't strike out a lot, and the power is growing. His wOBA was only 7-points higher than his expected wOBA. He raked his entire time in the minors. But hey, he never made a Top 100 list so he is "AAAA".

 

Meanwhile you are giving credit to the Rockies for what? A 0.3 fWAR reliever in Vodnik LMAO? Wow what talent! He put up a 4.28 ERA and a 4.18 FIP. He throws hard though. Vodnik shouldn't even be a talking point at this stage. Feltner is barely any different from Francis on the surface; the only difference is that he got to start the entire season. Francis was a better pitcher than Feltner once they put him permanently into the starting rotation. Could Francis be a complete mirage? Sure, but Feltner wasn't anything even worth mentioning until this season - so its really not any different as he can just as easily go back to sucking. He was a near 6 ERA pitcher the previous two seasons my guy, but his fWAR last year was inflated to 0.9 because he had an obviously flukey 0.42 HR/9 (it was 1.11 this season).

 

Someone like Orelvis Martinez can very easily come up next year and pop off a 2-3 WAR season. The guy didn't disappear from the planet; he came back after his suspension and hit .304/.360/.522 in 11 games in September. Meanwhile, Nolan Jones is a "bounce back" impact guy? Sure, in the same sensed maybe Manoah comes back and re-enters the Cy Young race. Nolan Jones was atrocious this year, and his 2022 sample was pedestrian as well. Nolan Jones' wOBA was 30+ points higher than his xwOBA last season.

[metafour]

The Jays have zero players drafted since 2020 that has taken a single AB or pitched a single pitch for the Major League team. The only player taken in any of those drafts that has played with any team is Austin Martin, the first of those picks from 2020, every single solitary player picked since Martin has not reached the majors yet.

 

Development of draft picks has been a clear negative, but some of this is obviously just situational noise. Roden and Kasevich would absolutely have been brought up this year for at-bats, but they acquired Loperfido, Wagner, and Clase at the deadline. The only reason why Roden isn't up is because there was no reason to start his clock.

 

So yes, on paper it is "zero". But its not because there was absolutely nobody to warrant bringing up.

[Laika]

Why would including Horwitz be "generous"? This is why this s*** is always so melodramatic: you are by default hyper-critical of what you see yourself from your own team, but excessively complimentary to other teams.

 

Horwitz just put up 1.9 fWAR in under 100 games played. His 127 wRC+ was the 39th best in the entire damn league among players with 350 or more plate appearances. There is nothing in his hitting profile that screams "luck": he walks, doesn't strike out a lot, and the power is growing. His wOBA was only 7-points higher than his expected wOBA. He raked his entire time in the minors. But hey, he never made a Top 100 list so he is "AAAA".

 

Meanwhile you are giving credit to the Rockies for what? A 0.3 fWAR reliever in Vodnik LMAO? Wow what talent! He put up a 4.28 ERA and a 4.18 FIP. He throws hard though. Vodnik shouldn't even be a talking point at this stage. Feltner is barely any different from Francis on the surface; the only difference is that he got to start the entire season. Francis was a better pitcher than Feltner once they put him permanently into the starting rotation. Could Francis be a complete mirage? Sure, but Feltner wasn't anything even worth mentioning until this season - so its really not any different as he can just as easily go back to sucking. He was a near 6 ERA pitcher the previous two seasons my guy, but his fWAR last year was inflated to 0.9 because he had an obviously flukey 0.42 HR/9 (it was 1.11 this season).

 

Someone like Orelvis Martinez can very easily come up next year and pop off a 2-3 WAR season. The guy didn't disappear from the planet; he came back after his suspension and hit .304/.360/.522 in 11 games in September. Meanwhile, Nolan Jones is a "bounce back" impact guy? Sure, in the same sensed maybe Manoah comes back and re-enters the Cy Young race. Nolan Jones was atrocious this year, and his 2022 sample was pedestrian as well. Nolan Jones' wOBA was 30+ points higher than his xwOBA last season.

 

okay spencer

[John_Havok]

 

Could’ve had Teo for 3/50.

 

Too bad our front office thinks adding a power bat is “low-hanging fruit”

 

When literally every single team passes on what someone is looking for and they get a 1 year deal, that doesn't really indict the Jays FO specifically as being bad.

 

There are plenty of examples that are clear indicators of the failures of the FO, but that is not one of them.

[John_Havok]

okay spencer

 

being fair, he made some decent points.

[AMS528]

Development of draft picks has been a clear negative, but some of this is obviously just situational noise. Roden and Kasevich would absolutely have been brought up this year for at-bats, but they acquired Loperfido, Wagner, and Clase at the deadline. The only reason why Roden isn't up is because there was no reason to start his clock.

 

So yes, on paper it is "zero". But its not because there was absolutely nobody to warrant bringing up.

 

The same situations exist for other teams as well. They also have players who may have warranted being called up but didn't because of trades and what not. The broad point is that it is damning to have zero when no other teams did.

 

I mean otherwise some other teams with similar situations would have also had "zero" prospects appear. But they didn't.

[BatFlip]

The state of the french fries is not bottom 5 bad but it's definitely not top 15 good either

 

Resources: 8/10

Prospects: 2/10

2025 chances: 6/10

2025 to 2028 chances: 3/10

Front office talent: 5/10

Fanbase/support: 6/10

 

 

I like how you broke this down.

 

If the 10 rating is objectively against the other 29 teams, I would only mildly quibble with a couple things.

 

 

Resources: 8/10

Prospects: 1/10

2025 chances: 6/10

2025 to 2028 chances: 4/10 (upgraded if Vlad signs long-term)

Front office talent: 5/10

Fanbase/support: 7.5/10

 

 

I see Prospects (sadly) as potentially being as low as 1/10 right now and fanbase/support being a 7, but probably a 8/10 given the unique size of the GTA and Canadian market.

[Brownie19]

The same situations exist for other teams as well. They also have players who may have warranted being called up but didn't because of trades and what not. The broad point is that it is damning to have zero when no other teams did.

 

I mean otherwise some other teams with similar situations would have also had "zero" prospects appear. But they didn't.

 

How many had 1 player?

[BatFlip]

being fair, he made some decent points.

 

 

He does make some fair points and I agree that Horwitz looks like a genuine big leaguer. However, if it wasn't for Bowden Francis (at age 28) catching lightening in a bottle through the second half, this would have been a f***ing disastrous year for prospect development. Wagner and Bloss wouldn't even be here if the team hadn't collapsed.

 

It is beyond incriminating that there wasn't even a single RP prospect to effectively step up when we were throwing s*** against the wall in the second half of games through they end of the year.

[MikeM3]

Calling the Astros and Cardinals bottom tier franchises is certainly a take.

 

Astros are finished with Dana Brown. Cards will be on the way back up once Mo is gone.

[AMS528]

How many had 1 player?

 

It's 29 other teams so pardon me for not memorizing all of it but absolutely no doubt that the next worst teams overall were the Marlins and Royals. Marlins have had four players get a cup of tea with various teams but only one (Max Meyer) with them and he was bad this year but I suppose also a top 100 prospect regularly. I think the Royals were next worst overall, three in total, but without much impact.

 

Again not memorized but I don't recall any other team having just one, and I think every team had more than one if you're including debuts on other teams (again the Jays just had Austin Martin). And honestly usually most teams seemed to at least have one with some kind of positive impact.

[Laika]

being fair, he made some decent points.

 

critical error of not seeing the forest for the trees

 

if the difference between you and the Angels is Spencer Horwitz, or 6 Bowden Francis starts, then guess what - there is no significant difference between you and the Angels!

[Brownie19]

It's 29 other teams so pardon me for not memorizing all of it but absolutely no doubt that the next worst teams overall were the Marlins and Royals. Marlins have had four players get a cup of tea with various teams but only one (Max Meyer) with them and he was bad this year but I suppose also a top 100 prospect regularly. I think the Royals were next worst overall, three in total, but without much impact.

 

Again not memorized but I don't recall any other team having just one, and I think every team had more than one if you're including debuts on other teams (again the Jays just had Austin Martin). And honestly usually most teams seemed to at least have one with some kind of positive impact.

 

I was just curious and didn't expect you to memorize it.

 

My point was that if 14 teams only had 1 and the Jays had 0, then I'd suggest that's irrelevant. If there was only 2 teams with 1 and there were 14 teams with 5+, then that's obviously a different story. I just read an article from 2019 that says of the 1200 players drafted each year, less than 10% of them will ever accumulate 0.1 WAR in their career. That number looks worse because there are simply too many players drafted every year, but it's still really small. The # of players drafted who accumulate even 10 career WAR must be <3% - possibly less? Teams average 1 person per draft who has even 10 career WAR - which is considered what, an "OK MLB career"? That's someone who might be a "starter" for 2 seasons at their peak? It's not uncommon for teams to land 0 for a few years in a row, then land 3 in the next draft. That's unfortunately how random it can be. There are drafts that only produced 1 quality MLB player in the entire 1st round.

 

The reality is teams ALL generally suck at scouting, drafting and developing. It's a f***ton of throwing s*** against the wall and hoping it sticks isn't it? Some are just slightly better than others.

[metafour]

Complete org rankings:

 

10. Twins

19. Blue Jays

 

But yes, Toronto has no argument for being top 10 or even top 15.

 

Here is how razor-thin these "rankings" are:

 

2022:

Blue Jays: 92-70

Twins: 78-84

 

2023:

Blue Jays: 89-73

Twins: 87-75

 

2024:

Twins: 82-80

Blue Jays: 74-88

 

2024 record post trade deadline (ie: after we SOLD):

Twins: 23-32

Blue Jays: 23-29

 

So in your mind's eye, the Twins are ~10 spots ahead of the Blue Jays because they won 8 more games in 2024?

 

Pointless rankings are pointless. Apart from ~4-5 teams, everyone else can wildly swing 10+ spots overnight.

[Laika]

Here is how razor-thin these "rankings" are:

 

2022:

Blue Jays: 92-70

Twins: 78-84

 

2023:

Blue Jays: 89-73

Twins: 87-75

 

2024:

Twins: 82-80

Blue Jays: 74-88

 

2024 record post trade deadline (ie: after we SOLD):

Twins: 23-32

Blue Jays: 23-29

 

So in your mind's eye, the Twins are ~10 spots ahead of the Blue Jays because they won 8 more games in 2024?

 

Pointless rankings are pointless. Apart from ~4-5 teams, everyone else can wildly swing 10+ spots overnight.

 

The Twins are a better organization because they can make baseball players

 

They have actual, tangible developmental strategies that work and several years to prove it

 

They were out front of certain pitching trends (high fastballs, sweepers) and hitting trends (pulled fly balls) and they do smart things like cash the novelty player Luis Arraez for the sneaky Ace Pablo Lopez, and trade Jose Berrios at the perfect time (Simeon Woods Richardson outperformed him this year lol). They also have a fully functional player development system, just look at their bullpen and really their entire roster.

 

You are right that the margins are thin though. As has been stated already in this thread. The Twins don't spend enough money.

 

The Jays can overcome a lot of mediocrity by just spending $230M+ annually

[L54]

I was just curious and didn't expect you to memorize it.

 

My point was that if 14 teams only had 1 and the Jays had 0, then I'd suggest that's irrelevant. If there was only 2 teams with 1 and there were 14 teams with 5+, then that's obviously a different story. I just read an article from 2019 that says of the 1200 players drafted each year, less than 10% of them will ever accumulate 0.1 WAR in their career. That number looks worse because there are simply too many players drafted every year, but it's still really small. The # of players drafted who accumulate even 10 career WAR must be <3% - possibly less? Teams average 1 person per draft who has even 10 career WAR - which is considered what, an "OK MLB career"? That's someone who might be a "starter" for 2 seasons at their peak? It's not uncommon for teams to land 0 for a few years in a row, then land 3 in the next draft. That's unfortunately how random it can be. There are drafts that only produced 1 quality MLB player in the entire 1st round.

 

The reality is teams ALL generally suck at scouting, drafting and developing. It's a f***ton of throwing s*** against the wall and hoping it sticks isn't it? Some are just slightly better than others.

 

The everything is random argument is the most overused and tiresome rebuttal on this board

 

Playoffs are random!

Drafting is random!

Babip is random!

[L54]

How can anyone look at this org and be like ya they’re actually doing a pretty decent job

 

They are surviving on burning through cash. Not a great long term model to just stay afloat. The only good thing they’ve done is not hand out an albatross. I guess you can consider the stadium renos and player development complex too but waiting to see returns on that

[Brownie19]

The everything is random argument is the most overused and tiresome rebuttal on this board

 

Playoffs are random!

Drafting is random!

Babip is random!

 

Man, I know you hate this idea, but randomness does play a huge component. Just because you may not understand it, or want to believe it, doesn't mean it's wrong.

 

Here's a good one. Over the last 10 years, the A's have the 7th highest total WAR from 1st round draft picks with 29.6. Their "top" 1st round pick over the span is Matt Chapman, who has a combined 31.2 WAR. Only 5 of their 15 1st round picks in the last 10 years have reached the majors. The other 4 have combined for -1.6 WAR. The Giants combined WAR from their 1st round picks over the last 10 years is -0.1.

 

Teams invest millions and millions of dollars in scouting annually and year after year it's proven how inconsistent the results are. Billy told us this in Moneyball. Scouts don't know - they say they know, but they don't. 24 teams passed on the best talent of our generation.

 

Now some organizations or individuals might have a slight edge over their competitors, but that takes them from "really s*****" to "s*****".

[Terminator]

Everyone is getting way too hung up on 2024, prospect lists and who the current front office is. There are built-in advantages to the different teams that should probably weigh pretty heavy.

 

You could just use this list as your starting point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_list_of_the_most_valuable_MLB_clubs

 

And then massage the rankings from there, starting with ownership (doesn't change very often) and then front offices (changes quite often) and then whatever other criteria you want.

 

For example, Angels (#7) and Rockies (#20) getting moved to the bottom because of ownership. And then the Rays #(26) getting moved up because of the front office.

[L54]

Man, I know you hate this idea, but randomness does play a huge component. Just because you may not understand it, or want to believe it, doesn't mean it's wrong.

 

Here's a good one. Over the last 10 years, the A's have the 7th highest total WAR from 1st round draft picks with 29.6. Their "top" 1st round pick over the span is Matt Chapman, who has a combined 31.2 WAR. Only 5 of their 15 1st round picks in the last 10 years have reached the majors. The other 4 have combined for -1.6 WAR. The Giants combined WAR from their 1st round picks over the last 10 years is -0.1.

 

Teams invest millions and millions of dollars in scouting annually and year after year it's proven how inconsistent the results are. Billy told us this in Moneyball. Scouts don't know - they say they know, but they don't. 24 teams passed on the best talent of our generation.

 

Now some organizations or individuals might have a slight edge over their competitors, but that takes them from "really s*****" to "s*****".

 

Why do teams invest money in scouting if it’s random?

[L54]

Like how would Brownie be the authority figure on scouting vs even the NE regional scout for the Braves?

[jaysblue]

The everything is random argument is the most overused and tiresome rebuttal on this board

 

Playoffs are random!

Drafting is random!

Babip is random!

 

At the end of the day, can't use those excuses in the corporate world. If a company doesn't have a strong quarter or year, the people at the top are held accountable.

[Spanky99]

How can anyone look at this org and be like ya they’re actually doing a pretty decent job

 

They are surviving on burning through cash. Not a great long term model to just stay afloat. The only good thing they’ve done is not hand out an albatross. I guess you can consider the stadium renos and player development complex too but waiting to see returns on that

 

Name 1 person that thinks that, c'mon man.

[L54]

Name 1 person that thinks that, c'mon man.

 

You don’t think Atkins has done a decent job?

 

Welcome to the dark side 🤝

[L54]

At the end of the day, can't use those excuses in the corporate world. If a company doesn't have a strong quarter or year, the people at the top are held accountable.

 

Furthest thing from a corporate guy here

[Stangstag]

At the end of the day, can't use those excuses in the corporate world. If a company doesn't have a strong quarter or year, the people at the top are held accountable.

 

Except in this case, we don’t actually know how “well” the company did. You’re talking about money/revenue, which isn’t the same as the success of the team itself.

 

For example, a box office success is not an indication of a GOOD movie, and a GOOD film being a box office loss doesn’t make share-holders very happy.

 

On-field results and corporate/shareholder results are 2 different things.

[Brownie19]

At the end of the day, can't use those excuses in the corporate world. If a company doesn't have a strong quarter or year, the people at the top are held accountable.

 

You absolutely can. Land Development in Ontario has TANKED this year due to several factors - most of which are outside of the developers hands. You think CEO's are getting fired because they didn't hit targets this year? Like f*** they are. Are agricultural CEO's fired when it's a dry summer, or a really wet fall and they get s***** yields? In every industry, you have to understand the factors that are in your control, which ones aren't and which ones have a ton of variance in them. Some jobs have ton, some less.

 

I'm not saying "everything is just totally random" - but there is a f***ton of randomness in sports. Teams spend millions of dollars to try and gain small advantages. They are always trying to increase the probability of success. Sometimes they can do a ton of things right and get s*** results - that's baseball, but over time, you will see good/bad trends develop.

 

I accept that it's easy for fans to just look at results and form judgement...But I do believe:

 

- The playoffs has a f***ton more randomness than the 162 game season. Just get there as often as you can.

- The draft has always been full of luck. Everyone sucks at it. Some may suck a hair less than others, but nobody is good at it consistently, year after year.

- Being "clutch" and a hitters BA with RISP is often quite random. Very few do it well consistently.

[Jimcanuck]

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-mlb-wins-since-2020

 

Since 2020, we have the 10th best winning percentage in MLB and only 6 teams have made the playoffs more often.

 

bOTtOM 5 FRanChIsE

 

And how does the franchise look going into 2025?

 

Last in ALE again is a good bet. Finishing bottom 5 in MLB is a reasonably good proposition.

 

And the farm sucks.