General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[G-Snarls]

RIGHT I FORGOT

 

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds

 

So a 10% chance to pick 1st overall if they are 5th worst.

 

That would be f'n awesome - anything in the top 3 really would rock

[Brownie19]

That would be f'n awesome - anything in the top 3 really would rock

 

100%

[G-Snarls]

RIGHT I FORGOT

 

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds

 

So a 10% chance to pick 1st overall if they are 5th worst.

 

I re-read read some of the new draft rules. If you are in the world series you can't pick any better than 29 or 30 no matter what your regular season record was. IDK...

[G-Snarls]

100%

 

If we finish 5th worst there's a 10% chance of picking first overall, a 30.9% chance of getting a top 3 pick, and almost no chance of picking worse than 9th. Not bad!

 

(even the worst team only has a 16.5% chance of picking 1st overall)

[Brownie19]

If we finish 5th worst there's a 10% chance of picking first overall, a 30.9% chance of getting a top 3 pick, and almost no chance of picking worse than 9th. Not bad!

 

(even the worst team only has a 16.5% chance of picking 1st overall)

 

Fingers crossed.

 

It would be pretty awesome to have the Holliday brothers playing against each other in the AL East one day. And of course we all know younger brothers are typically better.

[G-Snarls]

We need the FO to get this year's pick right. Hopefully they don't get to pick this high again any time soon, so want to make the most of it...

[Brownie19]

We need the FO to get this year's pick right. Hopefully they don't get to pick this high again any time soon, so want to make the most of it...

 

I think that's an understatement. Anyone know when the lottery draft is?

[G-Snarls]

I think that's an understatement. Anyone know when the lottery draft is?

 

During winter meetings

[Brownie19]

During winter meetings

 

Blah - that's a ways off.

[max silver]

If we finish 5th worst there's a 10% chance of picking first overall, a 30.9% chance of getting a top 3 pick, and almost no chance of picking worse than 9th. Not bad!

 

(even the worst team only has a 16.5% chance of picking 1st overall)

 

The way this season has unfolded it would feel like the ultimate nut punch for the Blue Jays to completely lose the lottery and drop to 10th overall.

[Stangstag]

The way this season has unfolded it would feel like the ultimate nut punch for the Blue Jays to completely lose the lottery and drop to 10th overall.

 

Sounds about right

[Brownie19]

I just saw Green's stats this year are a 3.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. I know every advanced statistic suggests he's been bad this year, but those old skoo numbers are way better than I thought they'd be.

[max silver]

I just saw Green's stats this year are a 3.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. I know every advanced statistic suggests he's been bad this year, but those old skoo numbers are way better than I thought they'd be.

 

He's been awfully fortunate in terms of batted ball luck but I can't get on board with the idea that he's been some sort of disaster. He had a rough week and a half where he allowed 11 of the 19 earned runs he allowed all season, but aside from that the Blue Jays can be very happy with the on field results he's produced this season.

[jaysblue]

He's been awfully fortunate in terms of batted ball luck but I can't get on board with the idea that he's been some sort of disaster. He had a rough week and a half where he allowed 11 of the 19 earned runs he allowed all season, but aside from that the Blue Jays can be very happy with the on field results he's produced this season.

 

Of course you can't lol. And nice cherry picking as usual. Take away that rough week and a half where he allowed 11 earned runs, and it makes things all better! Can forget he's going to be 34 and about the career worst K/9 of 7.74, 4.35 FIP along with 0 WAR this season!

[jaysblue]

I just saw Green's stats this year are a 3.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. I know every advanced statistic suggests he's been bad this year, but those old skoo numbers are way better than I thought they'd be.

 

So by your accounts, has Green been a solid arm this year or has he been somewhat of a disappointment and are there concerns with him moving forward?

[max silver]

Of course you can't lol. And nice cherry picking as usual. Take away that rough week and a half where he allowed 11 earned runs, and it makes things all better! Can forget he's going to be 34 and about the career worst K/9 of 7.74, 4.35 FIP along with 0 WAR this season!

 

That's not really the overall point I was making but nice job taking a small snippet of my post out of context as the entire basis of your usual ******** level of post. Even with the bad week and a half Green has still produced a very solid season and the Blue Jays can be pretty happy with the overall results when Green took the mound this season. People are cherrypicking his FIP and associated FWAR as a primary if not only reason in certain cases to declare that he's been awful this season, yet he's largely kept the opposition off the board which is the primary job of a pitcher as games are won and lost based on actual runs that cross the plate. Given the wild variances in relief performances year over year and the fact that Green is still showing very solid stuff and command metrics there's a very good chance he's going to see his strikeouts tick back up next season

[Brownie19]

So by your accounts, has Green been a solid arm this year or has he been somewhat of a disappointment and are there concerns with him moving forward?

 

Based on actual results this year - he's been a very solid pitcher for the Blue Jays.

 

However, by all indications, he's been very lucky to achieve those results this year. All the advanced metrics suggest it's not sustainable, which is why no one was overly surprised by his recent struggles. Am I concerned with what he'll be moving forward? Obviously I am. The good news is pitchers are volatile from year to year and his Stuff + is still good. With a few tweaks this offseason, there's a possibility he'll be more effective next year. There's also a possibility his struggles will continue and he won't be as lucky next year. Time will tell.

[Laika]

Based on actual results this year - he's been a very solid pitcher for the Blue Jays.

 

However, by all indications, he's been very lucky to achieve those results this year. All the advanced metrics suggest it's not sustainable, which is why no one was overly surprised by his recent struggles. Am I concerned with what he'll be moving forward? Obviously I am. The good news is pitchers are volatile from year to year and his Stuff + is still good. With a few tweaks this offseason, there's a possibility he'll be more effective next year. There's also a possibility his struggles will continue and he won't be as lucky next year. Time will tell.

 

Except for the pitching model which likes him

 

120 stuff+ with 104 location+ (good and good)

3.27 ERA (good)

4.40 FIP and xFIP (bad)

21.8% K rate (bad)

SwStr% 10.9% (bad)

 

He's a mystery, wrapped up in an enigma, smothered in questions.

[The_DH]

Let's face it, with the results of the draft order selection process being hidden, there's no chance at all of us getting the first overall choice. If I remember correctly, the selection is done off-camera.

[BatFlip]

Let's face it, with the results of the draft order selection process being hidden, there's no chance at all of us getting the first overall choice. If I remember correctly, the selection is done off-camera.

 

You're really throwing out some conspiracies this week.

[204Jays]

Not a stathead at all - to the naked eye, Clement looks replacement level. He's on pace for 3.7-3.9 WAR season. Has he earned an everyday spot next year?

[jaysblue]

Not a stathead at all - to the naked eye, Clement looks replacement level. He's on pace for 3.7-3.9 WAR season. Has he earned an everyday spot next year?

 

Depends if the Jays bring in another 3B this offseason, but I doubt they spend the money it takes to sign Bregman and there aren't really any great trade candidates out there. Better to spend money elsewhere on the roster in order to bring in two big bats and another SP. I think Clement can hold his own at 3B over a full season and would be fine as long as he's hitting at the bottom of the order and the Jays add thump to the lineup elsewhere.

[BatFlip]

Depends if the Jays bring in another 3B this offseason, but I doubt they spend the money it takes to sign Bregman and there aren't really any great trade candidates out there. Better to spend money elsewhere on the roster in order to bring in two big bats and another SP. I think Clement can hold his own at 3B over a full season and would be fine as long as he's hitting at the bottom of the order and the Jays add thump to the lineup elsewhere.

 

I think that's right - you're going to get way more offensive bang for your buck adding a LF bat and a 1B/DH type in free agency and trades.

 

I would guess Clement will be projected as a 2 WARish player in 2025 based on the defense and the slightly below average bat. That plays when you have all these easier holes to fill and still leaves some flexibility to experiment with Vladdy at that corner.

[Brownie19]

I think that's right - you're going to get way more offensive bang for your buck adding a LF bat and a 1B/DH type in free agency and trades.

 

I would guess Clement will be projected as a 2 WARish player in 2025 based on the defense and the slightly below average bat. That plays when you have all these easier holes to fill and still leaves some flexibility to experiment with Vladdy at that corner.

 

Vlad and/or Barger. I don't think the team should give up on Barger yet.

[glory]

Not a stathead at all - to the naked eye, Clement looks replacement level. He's on pace for 3.7-3.9 WAR season. Has he earned an everyday spot next year?

 

He grades out very well defensively at SS and 3B so he has value as a utility IF, but offensive profile looks awful. He's basically what IKF typically is from a value standpoint. If they sign Soto, then sure start Clement everyday, but given the amount of improvement they need from the offense, they should aim a lot higher. Vlad at 3B continues to feel like the best option for next season.

[Brownie19]

He grades out very well defensively at SS and 3B so he has value as a utility IF, but offensive profile looks awful. He's basically what IKF typically is from a value standpoint. If they sign Soto, then sure start Clement everyday, but given the amount of improvement they need from the offense, they should aim a lot higher. Vlad at 3B continues to feel like the best option for next season.

 

Vlad, Bo, Wagner, Horwitz would be one of the worst defensive infields in the MLB and in Blue Jays history. Just sayin' (not that I really want Clement to be our starting 3rd baseman).

[max silver]

Vlad, Bo, Wagner, Horwitz would be one of the worst defensive infields in the MLB and in Blue Jays history. Just sayin'

 

Small sample size alert to be certain but all of Vlad (3B), Bo (SS), Wagner (2B) and Horwitz (1B) are +1 by OAA at the listed positions.

[BatFlip]

Small sample size alert to be certain but all of Vlad (3B), Bo (SS), Wagner (2B) and Horwitz (1B) are +1 by OAA at the listed positions.

 

Alexa, play Circus Theme Song.

[glory]

Vlad, Bo, Wagner, Horwitz would be one of the worst defensive infields in the MLB and in Blue Jays history. Just sayin' (not that I really want Clement to be our starting 3rd baseman).

 

Yeah it would certainly hurt the defense, but this set up has far more potential to help the offense with the right moves. The question is whether the offensive improvement would be worth the defensive downgrade. Depends on what's out there and what's realistic for the team to acquire, I guess. I just don't see a realistic avenue to add a legit starting 3B unless you want to give Alex Bregman more money than Chapman just got.

[Brownie19]

Yeah it would certainly hurt the defense, but this set up has far more potential to help the offense with the right moves. The question is whether the offensive improvement would be worth the defensive downgrade. Depends on what's out there and what's realistic for the team to acquire, I guess. I just don't see a realistic avenue to add a legit starting 3B unless you want to give Alex Bregman more money than Chapman just got.

 

Yeah - I agree with that. Hopefully they can get creative. Trade for Brett Baty.