General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Terminator]

Extend Mattingly

 

Mattingly also seemingly fixed our RISP woes. Last year we hit worse with RISP. That carried into this year and I was assured that there was something wrong with our hitters and that it wasn't just statistical noise.

 

But lo and behold, not only did Mattingly fix Vlad, he has this team hitting better with RISP on the year. This sad sack of a lineup has an 99 wRC+ overall but a 110 wRC+ with runners in scoring position.

[Olerud363]

His swing has changed. Castro Bros did a good breakdown.

 

Castro Bros (@castro_bros) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

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3,903 likes, 45 comments - castro_bros on July 6, 2024: "He is in better situation with the hands now 🫡🔥 #softball #softballlife #softballdrills #softballstrong #fastpitch #softballlove #softballsisters #miami #florida #fastpitchsoftball #fastpitchlife #baseballmom #baseballlife #baseballisback #baseballseason #baseballboys #baseballplays #baseballlove #baseballfan #hitting #hittingdrills #hittingpost #hittingcoach #hittingmechanics #hittingbombs #hittinggoals #hittinginstructor #texasbaseball #californiabaseball".

 

What was his swing like in 2017/18 and 2021 ?

 

If swing fix by Jays coaching staff solved it, I don't think that is really a good thing for them. Like Vlad has been an all time great in the minors and in 2021, so are we saying that he performed way below talent level for for 4 calendar years (19/20/22 and 23) and all that was needed to fix it was a mechanics adjustment... but no one on Jays coaching staff could find if for years at a time?

 

So are there like coaching staffs who find this stuff in a few weeks instead of years? And if so should Jays be looking to form such a coaching staff?

[Laika]

Mattingly is doing work this year

 

Vlad is back

Varsho 100 wRC+ despite some of the worst peripherals in baseball

IKF was somehow 116 wRC+ pre trade

Clement hitting .268 and almost at 100 wRC+

Horwitz very good

Springer sucks but is probably close to the best version of his pathetic 34 year old self considering the loss in power (5 mph off his maxEV in one year)

Kirk was lost but has found himself

Wagner is a god rookie

Jimenez good so far as rookie

Justin Turner clung to relevancy with Toronto (110 wRC+) long enough to fetch something in a trade before cratering with Seattle as expected (77 wRC+)

 

The blemishes are:

- Barger, maybe he just sucks

- Schneider

- Bichette but blame Bo and his legs

- Biggio, you can't fix a guy like that

[Olerud363]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2007.shtml

 

2007 Angles scored 820 runs 4th in league while being almost last (124) in homeruns. Casey Kotchman, who was not a great player overall was a decent 'no power bro' first basemen that year.

 

In 2024 teams like this don't exist anymore. Even with lessons from the greats like Don Mattingly teams can't hit .280. Guys like Spencer Horwitz can't hit .290 even.

 

Spencer looks like his route to being a 3 WAR player is a .250 hitter with 20 homers, walks and good 1b/average 2b defense. That's kind of what he is on pace for.

 

The John Olerud (high end) latter day Joe Mauer (lower end) Kieth Hernandez, Moneyball Hatteburg (2002 only) type player no longer exists.

 

Mathematically they'd still work, but something about the pitching patterns and defense alignments have crushed this kind of player.

[Brownie19]

What was his swing like in 2017/18 and 2021 ?

 

If swing fix by Jays coaching staff solved it, I don't think that is really a good thing for them. Like Vlad has been an all time great in the minors and in 2021, so are we saying that he performed way below talent level for for 4 calendar years (19/20/22 and 23) and all that was needed to fix it was a mechanics adjustment... but no one on Jays coaching staff could find if for years at a time?

 

So are there like coaching staffs who find this stuff in a few weeks instead of years? And if so should Jays be looking to form such a coaching staff?

 

I believe the Castro Bros had another video that showed the adjustments Vlad made this year align with the mechanics he used in 2021 (I don't know or care about 2017 or 2018). We don't know who brought this to his attention and/or helped fix it. We don't know why it changed after 2021. I can't imagine that after 2021, Guillermo or any coach tried to change his swing and suggested he push his hands forward more - that's moronic. It probably just developed (maybe associated with an injury). We don't know who Vlad was listening to (or not listening to) in 2022/23. We also don't know how long it would taken to make mechanical changes like that. Breaking that muscle memory in game, in pressure situations can be difficult and I suspect the adjustment period is different for different players.

 

The good news is that he's back.

[Laika]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2007.shtml

 

2007 Angles scored 820 runs 4th in league while being almost last (124) in homeruns. Casey Kotchman, who was not a great player overall was a decent 'no power bro' first basemen that year.

 

In 2024 teams like this don't exist anymore. Even with lessons from the greats like Don Mattingly teams can't hit .280. Guys like Spencer Horwitz can't hit .290 even.

 

Spencer looks like his route to being a 3 WAR player is a .250 hitter with 20 homers, walks and good 1b/average 2b defense. That's kind of what he is on pace for.

 

The John Olerud (high end) latter day Joe Mauer (lower end) Kieth Hernandez, Moneyball Hatteburg (2002 only) type player no longer exists.

 

Mathematically they'd still work, but something about the pitching patterns and defense alignments have crushed this kind of player.

 

What are your parameters? These kinds of guys definitely aren't hitting .290 anymore but some of them still exist. Some of them are less prominent because they platoon. But if you scan for 11%+ BB%, ISO of .170 or less, 1B types you do find LaMonte Wade, Nate Lowe, certain Josh Bell seasons. Yandy Diaz before the power spike. Ryan Noda (RIP). Ji Man Choi. Nolan Schanuel might be one.

 

And if you just adjust their AVG for era, it might be the same. I dunno.

 

From 1999 to now the MLB wide batting average has gone from .271 to .244

[Orgfiller]

Interesting note about Kirk, he's actually not having all the bad of a hitting season if you look under the hood. His BABIP on the season sits at a lowly .257, which even with his poor foot speed is uncharacteristically low for a hitter with his all-fields, line drive approach. He has a .339 xwOBA, which is a 53 point underperformance from his actual wOBA. Sure, you can claim that Kirk will always lose a bit of expected output due to his pathetic baserunning ability costing him numerous infield singles and doubles, but never to this extent. His avg. exit velo and xwOBA sit comfortably in the 70th percentile, he doesn't swing and miss, draws a decent number of walks, and he's never been a barrel chaser but does connect hard.

 

If his underperformance was more in the ballpark of 10-15 wOBA points lost due to his legs, we'd be probably be looking at him with a ~110 wRC+ and comfortably providing 3-4 WAR of value.

Edited August 21, 2024 by Orgfiller

[Jays24]

Gregor Chisholm: The Blue Jays traded eight players at the deadline. Here’s what they’re doing with their new teams https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue-jays/the-blue-jays-traded-eight-players-at-the-deadline-heres-what-theyre-doing-with-their/article_8e373432-5ef2-11ef-a6b0-9b2b8e263283.html

[Jimcanuck]

Gregor Chisholm: The Blue Jays traded eight players at the deadline. Here’s what they’re doing with their new teams https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue-jays/the-blue-jays-traded-eight-players-at-the-deadline-heres-what-theyre-doing-with-their/article_8e373432-5ef2-11ef-a6b0-9b2b8e263283.html

 

Holy f*** he gets paid for that s***?

[Olerud363]

Guillermo or any coach tried to change his swing and suggested he push his hands forward more - that's moronic. It probably just developed (maybe associated with an injury). We don't know who Vlad was listening to (or not listening to) in 2022/23. We also don't know how long it would taken to make mechanical changes like that. Breaking that muscle memory in game, in pressure situations can be difficult and I suspect the adjustment period is different for different players.

 

The good news is that he's back.

 

I'm not suggesting that the coach's 'broke' Vlad. I said they could not quickly identify the problem and maybe another coaching staff could have.

[Jays24]

Holy f*** he gets paid for that s***?

 

Hey, it saved me the energy of having to check everyone out individually lol.

[Terminator]

Holy f*** he gets paid for that s***?

 

He should have just linked the Former Jays Thread and saved himself some time. The esteemed members of this board will no doubt give us daily updates on their success. Though if they struggle I suppose we don't get updates so maybe writing the article was necessary after all.

[wilko]

Holy f*** he gets paid for that s***?

 

He did the bare minimum in that article. He didn't even mention the prospects rankings in the Jays system and money transferred/saved. Lazy bastard.

[Olerud363]

What are your parameters? These kinds of guys definitely aren't hitting .290 anymore but some of them still exist. Some of them are less prominent because they platoon. But if you scan for 11%+ BB%, ISO of .170 or less, 1B types you do find LaMonte Wade, Nate Lowe, certain Josh Bell seasons. Yandy Diaz before the power spike. Ryan Noda (RIP). Ji Man Choi. Nolan Schanuel might be one.

 

And if you just adjust their AVG for era, it might be the same. I dunno.

 

From 1999 to now the MLB wide batting average has gone from .271 to .244

 

Is there a free api to get all that s*** into python?

 

All these guys pop like 28 homeruns in their power seasons. I don't know ... On a team level just can't imagine some team sacrificing power for average and scoring 800 with 125 homers anymore...

 

And kind of funny the way Spencer Horwitz's numbers are shaping up so far. Looks like a .260 hitter with 20 homers... I guess .260 is the new .290.

 

But like in other generations Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler would take a guy like Horwitz under their wing... you aren't a power hitter Spencer. Cut down the swing. Hit .290 with 11 homers. Can't do it anymore thought. So guys like Spencer hit .260 with 20+ homers instead, and then they hit

[jaysblue]

Vladdy benefits going into free agency if he can market himself as a third baseman as well.

 

Jays could benefit having Vladdy play 3B since then it's easier to find a 1B who could mash rather than someone at 3B.

[wilko]

Vladdy benefits going into free agency if he can market himself as a third baseman as well.

 

Jays could benefit having Vladdy play 3B since then it's easier to find a 1B who could mash rather than someone at 3B.

 

[Olerud363]

certain Josh Bell seasons

 

Josh Bell needed 37 homers to get up to 3.0 WAR

 

Old Joe Mauer, The 1b Joe Mauer, broken Joe Mauer got 2.8 WAR with 7 homers playing 1b

 

Old Joe Mauer, last of his kind.

 

These guys aren't old Joe Mauer or Keith Hernandez. They are 30 homer guys who sometimes have ground ball issues.

[Laika]

Josh Bell needed 37 homers to get up to 3.0 WAR

 

Old Joe Mauer, The 1b Joe Mauer, broken Joe Mauer got 2.8 WAR with 7 homers playing 1b

 

Old Joe Mauer, last of his kind.

 

These guys aren't old Joe Mauer or Keith Hernandez. They are 30 homer guys who sometimes have ground ball issues.

 

Joe Mauer was a 28 HR talent who had chronic groundball issues!

[Omar]

 

Soon to relocate to Japan next year

.

[Brownie19]

I'm not suggesting that the coach's 'broke' Vlad. I said they could not quickly identify the problem and maybe another coaching staff could have.

 

Maybe. Or maybe they did identify it, showed it to Vlad and he told them to pound salt and called Wilton. We won't know.

[L54]

Mattingly is doing work this year

 

Vlad is back

Varsho 100 wRC+ despite some of the worst peripherals in baseball

IKF was somehow 116 wRC+ pre trade

Clement hitting .268 and almost at 100 wRC+

Horwitz very good

Springer sucks but is probably close to the best version of his pathetic 34 year old self considering the loss in power (5 mph off his maxEV in one year)

Kirk was lost but has found himself

Wagner is a god rookie

Jimenez good so far as rookie

Justin Turner clung to relevancy with Toronto (110 wRC+) long enough to fetch something in a trade before cratering with Seattle as expected (77 wRC+)

 

The blemishes are:

- Barger, maybe he just sucks

- Schneider

- Bichette but blame Bo and his legs

- Biggio, you can't fix a guy like that

 

Everything wrong with the offense's collective approach this season smells like Don Mattingly.

 

Falling behind in the arms race so they hire a dinosaur? Makes no sense.

[Brownie19]

Everything wrong with the offense's collective approach this season smells like Don Mattingly.

 

Falling behind in the arms race so they hire a dinosaur? Makes no sense.

 

What's the collective approach?

[Terminator]

Mattingly is an old dog but he has learned some new tricks. Extend him.

[jaysblue]

 

Going to one-up you.

 

[Laika]

Everything wrong with the offense's collective approach this season smells like Don Mattingly.

 

Falling behind in the arms race so they hire a dinosaur? Makes no sense.

 

I feel like they hired him to be a veteran presence for John Schneider on the bench

 

And then Donny Baseball's dripping testosterone took over, Ross wilted into a corn cob and could not deny him, and Mattingly succeeded in taking over the entire offensive programming / game planning / coaching systems top to bottom

[wilko]

Going to one-up you.

 

 

lol... going overseas worked for him. Maybe Tellez will come back a monster for a year or so!

[wilko]

I feel like they hired him to be a veteran presence for John Schneider on the bench

 

And then Donny Baseball's dripping testosterone took over, Ross wilted into a corn cob and could not deny him, and Mattingly succeeded in taking over the entire offensive programming / game planning / coaching systems top to bottom

 

Ross Atkins eats corn on the cob the long way.

[Barrelsandbombs]

From Shi Davidi, seems to confirm that the front office wanted Bassitt to clarify his comments.

 

Blair: What's your sense of the message he wanted to get out there? And do you think there's any, I hesitate to use the word fallout. You think there's any reaction to this from the front office or from John Schneider?

 

Davidi: I'm sure that the front office raised it with him and said, what did you mean? And that was the question that Arden and I just approached him with was just, hey, what did you mean by this?

 

Also speaks of the Jays facing some hard truths internally as an organization.

 

Davidi: I think there was just a lot of truth in what he said and really just a lot of things that have been painfully obvious if you've been watching all season long.

 

Blair: And, of course, the beauty of that is that even if that wasn't the message he meant to send, that's how it kind of landed and in some ways that might... In some ways that might accomplish something to his benefit, if you know what I'm saying.

 

Davidi: Yeah, I mean, look, I think a lot of people, and I've heard this in private conversations, that a lot of people are sort of acknowledging a lot of hard truths about where the Blue Jays are as an organization this year, right? That a lot of this organization has come under the microscope, rightly so, based on where they were a few years ago and where they are now and what's happened with the window of opportunity.

 

This is what it is. This is what everybody's seeing. And so, you know, having it out there, having this discussion happen, having maybe some people in the organization have to face what other people see and how they perceive them, you know, that can only be healthy because that's what you're going to have to do in order to move forward. And as opposed to thinking everything's all right, I mean, it's not.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/blair-barker/little-league-vibes-bos-future-wheres-votto/

[L54]

Lmao

 

No can’t be true

[Omar]

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/blair-barker/little-league-vibes-bos-future-wheres-votto/

 

All of baseball knows that Votto is washed except for the Toronto Blue Jays apparently. Embarrassing.