General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

One thing that is funny about this year is the offense problems are a good part batting average related...

 

I think at the beginning of the year the eggheads did the math, and (correctly) figured out that a 'no power bro' team, with 150 homers (low total for this age) but a .265 team batting average would score enough runs, and they would have. A .265 .330 .420 team would score like 775 runs a great total these days.

 

Problem is the team is actually hitting .235 and most every player has a lower batting average then you would expect.

 

Don Mattingly's hitting tips, that the eggheads thought would result in a team with a good batting average, have instead led to the team under-performing their batting average.

 

Like Varsho should hit .240 but is .198. Schneider .250 but .210. Bo .300 but .240.

 

It's weird. Maybe Don Mattingly's hitting tips don't work in 2024. I don't think anyone expected Varsho to hit .300

 

But you think maybe, Varsho hit's .220 last year, but with a real focus on batting average and contact and Don Mattingly's hitting tips he can hit .240... but instead he hits .198.

 

So I think from a nerd perspective the idea that "if" a "no power bro" team could hit .265 it would work, is correct.

 

However something about the pitching, the defense, the scouting, the game prep, makes it hard to hit for average now and focusing on hitting for average makes it worse somehow.

 

Line Drive rate and BABIP are just so prone to random fluctuations

 

It's almost comical that the Toronto Blue Jays continue to (seemingly) chase hitters who build their offensive profile around AVG, Line Drives, and BABIP.

 

They have Bo in house who they curated as this kind of guy. Kirk who used to be a sweet swinger with an average LD rate.

Clement is like this. IKF is like this. Horwitz is like that.

 

Vlad is sort of like that, although not in the LD% category because he hits too many grounders. But definitely parts of his approach are about contact and BABIP (but at least it's more power-dependent which probably makes it more reliable).

 

They traded for Whit Merrifield who build a career on LD rate and BABIP. That sort of worked out for a bit but not overall.

 

Even Justin Turner is very much a LD%, BABIP guy. You always hear about him as a pulled FB dude but his game has also for a long time been about pulling soft liners, that's why his batting AVG has always been good.

 

It really seems like the front office is just too obsessed with f***ing line drives??? They even sort of encouraged Biggio to try to become a line drive dude I think. Maybe? Shouldn't Cavan Biggio have just been pulling more flyballs the whole time? Shouldn't he have just tried to hit .210/.340/.400 or something like that? Seems more in line with his actual tools. Rather than trying to slap every outside pitch the other way or whatever so he can hit .240

 

5th best LD% in baseball.

24th in runs.

 

But I thought Line Drives were good!!!! Everybody should try to hit line drives, right!?

 

Yeah, not if being 27th in average exit velo is the f***ing tradeoff. Way too one dimensional on offense. And that's DESPITE actually having a few flyball HR boppers like DS, DJ, and DV.

[Laika]

They also do this weird (stupid) thing where if one of the FB guys has a bad few weeks they cut their playing time.

 

It's like they don't understand that you need to just roll with those guys, then you get the hot streaks in full which counteract the slumps.

 

Jansen bad for 3 weeks? Kirk is 60% catcher again! Schneider bad in June? Platoon player now!!!

Varsho in another slump? KK, limber up!

[Jonn]

Varsho hitting less is good for my mental health. Atleast Kiermaier is attractive.

[Laika]

Varsho hitting less is good for my mental health. Atleast Kiermaier is attractive.

 

Until he steps to the plate

[glory]

Line Drive rate and BABIP are just so prone to random fluctuations

 

It's almost comical that the Toronto Blue Jays continue to (seemingly) chase hitters who build their offensive profile around AVG, Line Drives, and BABIP.

 

They have Bo in house who they curated as this kind of guy. Kirk who used to be a sweet swinger with an average LD rate.

Clement is like this. IKF is like this. Horwitz is like that.

 

Vlad is sort of like that, although not in the LD% category because he hits too many grounders. But definitely parts of his approach are about contact and BABIP (but at least it's more power-dependent which probably makes it more reliable).

 

They traded for Whit Merrifield who build a career on LD rate and BABIP. That sort of worked out for a bit but not overall.

 

Even Justin Turner is very much a LD%, BABIP guy. You always hear about him as a pulled FB dude but his game has also for a long time been about pulling soft liners, that's why his batting AVG has always been good.

 

It really seems like the front office is just too obsessed with f***ing line drives??? They even sort of encouraged Biggio to try to become a line drive dude I think. Maybe? Shouldn't Cavan Biggio have just been pulling more flyballs the whole time? Shouldn't he have just tried to hit .210/.340/.400 or something like that? Seems more in line with his actual tools. Rather than trying to slap every outside pitch the other way or whatever so he can hit .240

 

5th best LD% in baseball.

24th in runs.

 

But I thought Line Drives were good!!!! Everybody should try to hit line drives, right!?

 

Yeah, not if being 27th in average exit velo is the f***ing tradeoff. Way too one dimensional on offense. And that's DESPITE actually having a few flyball HR boppers like DS, DJ, and DV.

 

To add to this, from BA prior to the 2024 season:

 

"After showing a more aggressive approach and more in-game power in 2021 and 2022, Barger showed more patience in 2023 and a toned-down launch angle. This in turn produced a more consistent bat path, and he showed improvements in contact, in-zone contact and swing decisions. Barger traded some fly balls for line drives and ground balls, but he closed some of the holes in his swing."

 

It's definitely an organizational thing.

[Laika]

To add to this, from BA prior to the 2024 season:

 

"After showing a more aggressive approach and more in-game power in 2021 and 2022, Barger showed more patience in 2023 and a toned-down launch angle. This in turn produced a more consistent bat path, and he showed improvements in contact, in-zone contact and swing decisions. Barger traded some fly balls for line drives and ground balls, but he closed some of the holes in his swing."

 

It's definitely an organizational thing.

 

It's like the organization is literally just 3 years behind Cleveland

 

CLE has already moved on from this and this year, with great results, basically told Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan to f***ing swing harder

[Jimcanuck]

It's a Mattingly thing #EMTD

[Olerud363]

It's like the organization is literally just 3 years behind Cleveland

 

CLE has already moved on from this and this year, with great results, basically told Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan to f***ing swing harder

 

Steven Kwan has like the lowest bad speed in the world at 64 mph or something. I don't know maybe he was at 55 mph before.

 

Josh Naylor was in a slightly better configuration as a .300 .360 .470 last year then a .250 .310 .470 guy with more homers this year.

 

Not really convinced by those 2 examples. Though overall Cleveland is scoring more runs.

 

And they have a higher batting average than last year too (more power too of course).

 

I think people are just having trouble here with a multi-variate problem... If runs are a*hrs + b*avg there are many a and b that for which runs = 800

[Olerud363]

It's a Mattingly thing #EMTD

 

Mattingly hit .350 with 256 hits or something, and drove in 145 when the next best guy drove in 102. And he would hit 35 homers with 20 strike-outs.

 

And 50 doubles. And was Donny Baseball. And would have won many batting titles except for Wade Boggs. And hit 11 grand slams one summer (it was actually 6) and homered in 11 straight games (actually 8).

 

Probably Mattingly thought he could at least get Varsho to hit .250, and with Bo's talent get Bo putting up Mattingly 1980s style numbers...

 

But he can't.

[Olerud363]

It's a Mattingly thing #EMTD

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/1984.shtml

 

When Don Mattingly won the batting title in 84 his team hit .279 with 134 homers and scored 758 runs.

 

The nerds that run the blue jays probable have a spread sheet that showed what would happen under different offenses philosophies

 

IF team swing hard AND hit .237 with 241 homers TEAM run = 757

IF team swing soft AND hit .271 with 156 homers TEAM run = 761

 

OK. All these guys don't need to be swinging like maniacs. Teams historically can score 750, 800, 850 runs with 150 homers.

 

But... in 2024 most guys can't hit 280 with 10 homers I guess, so should try for .240 with 20?

 

Not really buying that line drive rate is that more variant than homerun per fly ball rate and stuff. Just that in 2024 can't build a team that hits .273 (but if you could it would score lots of runs).

[The_DH]

swinging harder and faster doesn't necessarily produce any better. I know I've had my golf swing analyzed and the more I tried to rush it the worse it got. I'm assuming that it would hold for baseball swings.

[Krylian]

swinging harder and faster doesn't necessarily produce any better. I know I've had my golf swing analyzed and the more I tried to rush it the worse it got. I'm assuming that it would hold for baseball swings.

 

I would assume that a slow entrance velocity (bat speed) would produce a suboptimal exit velocity.

[The_DH]

I think the best bat speed for a player is like a bell curve, you don't get batter because you're faster.

[Laika]

swinging harder and faster doesn't necessarily produce any better. I know I've had my golf swing analyzed and the more I tried to rush it the worse it got. I'm assuming that it would hold for baseball swings.

 

skill issue

 

you don't just "try to swing harder" I guess; you train with weighted bats and stuff to increase natural bat speed

 

the "try" part just means you train in a way to swing faster in games, and put the kinds of swings on the kinds of pitches that = homers

[Olerud363]

swinging harder and faster doesn't necessarily produce any better. I know I've had my golf swing analyzed and the more I tried to rush it the worse it got. I'm assuming that it would hold for baseball swings.

 

They have some bat speed stats that apparently correlate well with awesome hitting.

 

However Steven Kwan might suck at bat speed... not sure exactly what the explanation is there. He is only one data point.

 

Spencer Horwitz might also suck at bat speed but is so far a line drive machine. maybe once he goes on a popup streak he will be more like Biggio (who also sucks at bat speed).

[John_Havok]

I think the best bat speed for a player is like a bell curve, you don't get batter because you're faster.

 

There's multiple variables involved. If you're able to duplicate the correct contact point, then faster swing speed = better. but if your faster swing leads to suboptimal contact point, then it's not really better.

 

There's also the myth that you don't need to swing hard if the pitcher throws hard because the pitcher is supplying all the power. That's an incredibly simplistic view of a complex series of events, but it goes back to my previous statement. If all other variables are equal, it still holds that a harder swing = more distance. A guy swinging 75 mph at a 95mph pitch will not hit it as far as a guy who swings 80 mph at a 95mph pitch, if the contact points and other variables are equal.

[connorp]

There's multiple variables involved. If you're able to duplicate the correct contact point, then faster swing speed = better. but if your faster swing leads to suboptimal contact point, then it's not really better.

 

There's also the myth that you don't need to swing hard if the pitcher throws hard because the pitcher is supplying all the power. That's an incredibly simplistic view of a complex series of events, but it goes back to my previous statement. If all other variables are equal, it still holds that a harder swing = more distance. A guy swinging 75 mph at a 95mph pitch will not hit it as far as a guy who swings 80 mph at a 95mph pitch, if the contact points and other variables are equal.

 

If only they could play baseball in a giant vacuum, you’d be on to something

[John_Havok]

If only they could play baseball in a giant vacuum, you’d be on to something

 

If that's what you got from my post, then you didn't really understand it.

[connorp]

If that's what you got from my post, then you didn't really understand it.

 

I just felt like being a dick, actually. Been gone a week, wanted to go to the on deck circle and take a couple practice swings

[John_Havok]

I just felt like being a dick, actually. Been gone a week, wanted to go to the on deck circle and take a couple practice swings

 

Strike 1. Gonna have to dig in for the rest of your PA and battle.

[hanton]

They also do this weird (stupid) thing where if one of the FB guys has a bad few weeks they cut their playing time.

 

It's like they don't understand that you need to just roll with those guys, then you get the hot streaks in full which counteract the slumps.

 

Jansen bad for 3 weeks? Kirk is 60% catcher again! Schneider bad in June? Platoon player now!!!

Varsho in another slump? KK, limber up!

 

Yep, we've been saying this for how long now

[The_DH]

There's multiple variables involved. If you're able to duplicate the correct contact point, then faster swing speed = better. but if your faster swing leads to suboptimal contact point, then it's not really better.

 

There's also the myth that you don't need to swing hard if the pitcher throws hard because the pitcher is supplying all the power. That's an incredibly simplistic view of a complex series of events, but it goes back to my previous statement. If all other variables are equal, it still holds that a harder swing = more distance. A guy swinging 75 mph at a 95mph pitch will not hit it as far as a guy who swings 80 mph at a 95mph pitch, if the contact points and other variables are equal.

 

I'd still say there is an optimal bat speed for everyone, but with weighted bats and whatever it can be increased. But increasing your swing speed beyond your optimal swing speed can lessen your average output. Some swings may be better but many more will be worse. Similar to why you choke up on 2 strikes.

[John_Havok]

I'd still say there is an optimal bat speed for everyone, but with weighted bats and whatever it can be increased. But increasing your swing speed beyond your optimal swing speed can lessen your average output. Some swings may be better but many more will be worse. Similar to why you choke up on 2 strikes.

 

You're right, but ...it depends what the hitters goal is. There's a reason Arraez is a great contact hutter but is still barely tracking for a 2 war season. He has the slowest average bat speed in the majors last time I checked. He does literally no damage, practically ever.

 

Can't have his bat control and contact ability if you're swinging at 80 mph vs his laughably slow 62.9.

[Spanky99]

You should be so lucky that I offered you Correa in a deal for Bichette lol.

 

Yet you want him...

[hanton]

swinging harder and faster doesn't necessarily produce any better. I know I've had my golf swing analyzed and the more I tried to rush it the worse it got. I'm assuming that it would hold for baseball swings.

 

Yes.

 

There's an optimal bat path for every pitch (probably the same is true for golf), producing that bat path requires a hitter to take 10's of thousands of reps over many years - in the cages, soft toss, during bp, off the tee....etc A hitters bat speed is a by product of those reps.

[Spanky99]

Ben Rice is going to be something, isn't he?

[hanton]

Ben Rice is going to be something, isn't he?

 

Never heard of him until recently ...

[Spanky99]

Never heard of him until recently ...

 

Good bat, not much of a defensive profile.

[Spanky99]

Tucker reinstated, Barger optioned, Mayza cleared and is now a FA.

[Stangstag]

To add to this, from BA prior to the 2024 season:

 

"After showing a more aggressive approach and more in-game power in 2021 and 2022, Barger showed more patience in 2023 and a toned-down launch angle. This in turn produced a more consistent bat path, and he showed improvements in contact, in-zone contact and swing decisions. Barger traded some fly balls for line drives and ground balls, but he closed some of the holes in his swing."

 

It's definitely an organizational thing.

 

No no, Brownie will tell you you’re dumb for thinking this. Why would the front office pivot after the monster offenses of 2021/2022??

 

Yerdum