General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Krylian]

I think our hitting will end up better than our pitching. Schneider will end up playing everyday. Jansen is a big boost. Orelvis call up. And then inevitable regression from Bo Vlad George

 

Always love when your supposed best hitters, in their mid 20s, regress.

[Spanky99]

Always love when your supposed best hitters, in their mid 20s, regress.

 

I believe he's talking about positive regression.

[Spanky99]

TORONTO — Four players on the Toronto Blue Jays' injured list are making progress in their recovery.

 

Gold Glove-winning centre-fielder Kevin Kiermaier hit in the batting cage before Toronto hosted the Kansas City Royals on Monday.

 

Kiermaier, who is on the 10-day IL with left hip flexor inflammation, also did some running activities.

 

Relief pitcher Chad Green resumed throwing on Monday as he rehabilitates a teres major strain in his right shoulder.

 

Long reliever Bowden Francis is expected to resume throwing activities in the next couple of days as he recovers from right forearm extensor tendinitis.

 

Starting pitcher Alek Manoah will take the mound for the triple-A Buffalo Bisons on Tuesday as he deals with shoulder inflammation.

 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 29, 2024.

 

The Canadian Press

[Orgfiller]

Always love when your supposed best hitters, in their mid 20s, regress.

 

Regress to their mean, which is to say, you expect them to be better than they've been so far. Varsho on the other hand will regress in the opposite direction since he's likely been playing above his true talent mean.

[BigCecil]

I think our hitting will end up better than our pitching. Schneider will end up playing everyday. Jansen is a big boost. Orelvis call up. And then inevitable regression from Bo Vlad George

 

I agree with this. Although if you look at the some of the numbers so far (team ERA,FIP, xFIP) our pitching has been far from elite. Luck & D has helped them.

 

Kooch and Berrios over performing and Hound, Gausman under performing. Yariel has come down to earth but still positive.

 

Aside from Yimi so far, the pen has been like a box of chocolates. Never know what you're gonna get. Green health concerns me. Swanson had some V backlast night. Good sign to help set up his split.

 

Bo, Vlad and Springer will have positive regression, At the same time JT won't have a 165 wRC+ all season. Same for Varsho. Schneider is just an exciting player and fun to watch.

[L54]

I wanna see this tonight

 

Schneider

Turner

Varsho

Jansen

[glory]

I wanna see this tonight

 

Schneider

Turner

Varsho

Jansen

 

Jansen and DS in the lineup at the same time changes the dynamic significantly. Two guys who pull the ball and try to hit it in the air versus the alternative of a bunch of guys trying to hit hard singles the other way. Those two should be in the lineup as much as possible. Unfortunately you have to enjoy Jansen when you can because you don’t know how long he will hold up.

[Laika]

Jansen and DS in the lineup at the same time changes the dynamic significantly. Two guys who pull the ball and try to hit it in the air versus the alternative of a bunch of guys trying to hit hard singles the other way. Those two should be in the lineup as much as possible. Unfortunately you have to enjoy Jansen when you can because you don’t know how long he will hold up.

 

DS, Jansen, and Varsho have been good TV. They are having good PAs most of the time, not chasing too much, taking walks, and they are always dangerous.

 

The contrast in PA quality between them and Springer, Bo, Vlad has been wild.

 

The amount of 1st or 2nd pitch groundouts, or three pitch strikeouts, by Springer, Bo, and Vlad has been shockingly bad.

 

Funny but sad... Jansen, Schneider, and Varsho all have a better O-Swing% than Vlad. And they have a higher O-Contact% than him. So all three are chasing less than Vlad and making more contact outside of the zone when they do chase.

 

Vlad's SwStr% is the highest qualified on the team!

[Jimcanuck]

properly, the terminology is "regression to the mean" and "progression to the mean"

 

to say am underperformer will regress to the mean is nonsensical

 

thank you

[MikeM3]

properly, the terminology is "regression to the mean" and "progression to the mean"

 

to say am underperformer will regress to the mean is nonsensical

 

thank you

 

No one has time to type all that

[Krylian]

Regress to their mean, which is to say, you expect them to be better than they've been so far. Varsho on the other hand will regress in the opposite direction since he's likely been playing above his true talent mean.

 

 

I understand that. It just always sounds wrong uses the word 'regression' for something positive. Just a pet peeve. I prefer reversion to the mean, rather than regression to the mean.

[Laika]

properly, the terminology is "regression to the mean" and "progression to the mean"

 

to say am underperformer will regress to the mean is nonsensical

 

thank you

 

no. lmao

 

dumbest thing I have ever read

[Jimcanuck]

no. lmao

 

dumbest thing I have ever read

 

go back to school

[Jimcanuck]

no. lmao

 

dumbest thing I have ever read

 

this will help you:

 

 

REGRESSION

 

Synonyms & Similar Words

 

reversion

retrogression

relapse

decline

return

lapse

atavism

backslide

degeneration

nondevelopment

 

Antonyms & Near Antonyms

 

development

evolution

progression

advancement

growth

maturation

gestation

ripening

[Laika]

tell me you have a useless arts degree without telling me you have a useless arts degree

[Jimcanuck]

tell me you have a useless arts degree without telling me you have a useless arts degree

 

i don't have an arts degree. i have years of experience writing engineering specifications and legal briefs in conjunction with counsel

[Jimcanuck]

When Vlad and Bo progress to the mean, the team will be glorious!

[Laika]

i don't have an arts degree. i have years of experience writing engineering specifications and legal briefs in conjunction with counsel

 

so you're not a lawyer, not an engineer, not a statistician?

 

no credentials?

[Orgfiller]

It's fun seeing how legit of a hitter Davis Schneider actually is. Sitting at a modest 24% K-rate, 10% BB rate with a .213 ISO. BABIP at a reasonable .293 and he's actually underperforming his xWOBA slightly so the batted ball numbers are legit. He has an insane 97th percentile barrel rate to go with a 94th percentile chase rate. xWOBA in the 85th percentile of hitters, 80th percentile hard hit rate and 82nd percentile avg exit velo.

 

For all the cliches, the man legitimately just knows how to hit. He's not swinging at garbage, whiffs only on pitches in the zone and when he connects more often than not he's putting a very good swing on it. He could legitimately be our team's hitting coach, he's making the most out of his physical profile and then some.

[wilko]

It's fun seeing how legit of a hitter Davis Schneider actually is. Sitting at a modest 24% K-rate, 10% BB rate with a .213 ISO. BABIP at a reasonable .293 and he's actually underperforming his xWOBA slightly so the batted ball numbers are legit. He has an insane 97th percentile barrel rate to go with a 94th percentile chase rate. xWOBA in the 85th percentile of hitters, 80th percentile hard hit rate and 82nd percentile avg exit velo.

 

For all the cliches, the man legitimately just knows how to hit. He's not swinging at garbage, whiffs only on pitches in the zone and when he connects more often than not he's putting a very good swing on it. He could legitimately be our team's hitting coach, he's making the most out of his physical profile and then some.

 

He's a breath of fresh air for this team. Just sits on a good pitch and fires piss missile's into the outfield.

[Orgfiller]

properly, the terminology is "regression to the mean" and "progression to the mean"

 

to say am underperformer will regress to the mean is nonsensical

 

thank you

 

This is literally incorrect and a misunderstanding of statistics and what regression to the mean means. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

 

There is no concept of "underperformance" or "overperformance" when talking about regression to the mean. It's just random samples which may deviate from the mean by whichever measurement is being used for a particular sample, which are expected to be closer to the actual relative mean on future samples due to randomness.

[Jimcanuck]

so you're not a lawyer, not an engineer, not a statistician?

 

no credentials?

 

P.Eng. for > 30 yrs

[Laika]

P.Eng. for > 30 yrs

 

Time to retire for good I guess

 

clearly some brain rot

[Jimcanuck]

This is literally incorrect and a misunderstanding of statistics and what regression to the mean means. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

 

There is no concept of "underperformance" or "overperformance" when talking about regression to the mean. It's just random samples which may deviate from the mean by whichever measurement is being used for a particular sample, which are expected to be closer to the actual relative mean on future samples due to randomness.

 

Lies, damn lies, and statistics

[glory]

It's fun seeing how legit of a hitter Davis Schneider actually is. Sitting at a modest 24% K-rate, 10% BB rate with a .213 ISO. BABIP at a reasonable .293 and he's actually underperforming his xWOBA slightly so the batted ball numbers are legit. He has an insane 97th percentile barrel rate to go with a 94th percentile chase rate. xWOBA in the 85th percentile of hitters, 80th percentile hard hit rate and 82nd percentile avg exit velo.

 

For all the cliches, the man legitimately just knows how to hit. He's not swinging at garbage, whiffs only on pitches in the zone and when he connects more often than not he's putting a very good swing on it. He could legitimately be our team's hitting coach, he's making the most out of his physical profile and then some.

 

It's baffling that this team (especially this team given its weaknesses) didn't view him as an everyday player. Maybe now they do, or at least now they view him as someone who should be playing most of the time, but seeing him benched for Biggio, IKF, KK, etc, early in the season was just demoralizing.

 

Biggio hit a HR on opening day that would have only been a HR in 11 parks, and since then, he's hitting .221/.338/.279 with a 31% K% and .349 BABIP (5 HBP helping the OBP). The underlying numbers don't suggest anything positive for him. Once KK comes back, just start DS at 2B everyday against RHP, and then against LHP have DS in LF. Only way that works is if they concede that Biggio shouldn't be playing regularly, which from this front office and manager combination would be like telling them to sit their own son. Hopefully logic eventually prevails.

[Jimcanuck]

Time to retire for good I guess

 

clearly some brain rot

 

You could be right on the brain rot, but as long as I'm taking in $175/hr as a senior advisor, working to my own schedule and being able to select which assignments I will take on, I'm not retiring

[Laika]

It's baffling that this team (especially this team given its weaknesses) didn't view him as an everyday player. Maybe now they do, or at least now they view him as someone who should be playing most of the time, but seeing him benched for Biggio, IKF, KK, etc, early in the season was just demoralizing.

 

Biggio hit a HR on opening day that would have only been a HR in 11 parks, and since then, he's hitting .221/.338/.279 with a 31% K% and .349 BABIP (5 HBP helping the OBP). The underlying numbers don't suggest anything positive for him. Once KK comes back, just start DS at 2B everyday against RHP, and then against LHP have DS in LF. Only way that works is if they concede that Biggio shouldn't be playing regularly, which from this front office and manager combination would be like telling them to sit their own son. Hopefully logic eventually prevails.

 

Biggio has been brutal, defense aside, and it's time for him to lose playing time.

 

He has no power. Almost no barrels this year. Getting lucky on batted balls and and still only hitting .229. Passive to a fault and taking strike threes all the time. Frigging 26% called strike% against.

 

yuck, such a boring player ugh puke gross

 

just give Ernie 100% of his playing time he does more than Biggio all things considered

[Terminator]

Biggio hit a HR on opening day that would have only been a HR in 11 parks, and since then, he's hitting .221/.338/.279 with a 31% K% and .349 BABIP (5 HBP helping the OBP). The underlying numbers don't suggest anything positive for him. Once KK comes back, just start DS at 2B everyday against RHP, and then against LHP have DS in LF. Only way that works is if they concede that Biggio shouldn't be playing regularly, which from this front office and manager combination would be like telling them to sit their own son. Hopefully logic eventually prevails.

 

Going to print this out and frame it

[Eat My Shatkins]

I wish they'd give Biggio the Espinal treatment when KK is back. Trade him for a minor league arm or two if there are any takers.

 

When KK is back it should be either Biggio or Vogelbach getting punted, I don't see the point in sending Barger back down. Keep giving him MLB reps.

 

At some point BOTH Biggio and Vogelbach should be punted so we can get yet another Bison up here, unless Votto comes back and actually looks like he might be useful.

[Laika]

I wish they'd give Biggio the Espinal treatment when KK is back. Trade him for a minor league arm or two if there are any takers.

 

When KK is back it should be either Biggio or Vogelbach getting punted, I don't see the point in sending Barger back down. Keep giving him MLB reps.

 

At some point BOTH Biggio and Vogelbach should be punted so we can get yet another Bison up here, unless Votto comes back and actually looks like he might be useful.

 

Barger has lowkey been a disaster

 

He seems like a horrible outfielder right now