General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

Berrios is actually a lot like Bassitt. They have okay stuff but their best trait is probably just the durability and innings.

 

Last year only 25 SP threw 180+ innings.

 

Guys who take the ball 32 times and can throw 6 innings every night are rare!

[Omar]

A regular Berrios season does not rise to the level of legit Cy Young candidate. It just doesn't. Even a career year would have to be quite substantially better than his best. I don't think it's reasonable to expect at this point that there's going to be that kind of jump in his pitching, there's nothing to indicate that there will be. That's just objective honesty. That doesn't make him a bad pitcher, he's a pretty consistent, durable and reliable pitcher who helps stabilize the rotation. He's not an ace but guys like him still don't grow on trees, especially these days with all the injuries.

 

You think what we have seen thus far constitutes a "regular" Berrios season? He has been nothing short of stellar. No reason he shouldn't be considered an early CY candidate.

[Olerud363]

You think what we have seen thus far constitutes a "regular" Berrios season? He has been nothing short of stellar. No reason he shouldn't be considered an early CY candidate.

 

Unlikely that he will keep this up without improving advanced stats but if he did I have 0 doubt that he will be Cy Young if he leads by an obvious amount in old mans stats.

 

Like Manoah 2022 was third but the two guys in front him had better old man stats, he beat guys who beat him in advanced stats.

 

Formula is: IF Berrios leads by 5% or more in old man stats, Berrios wins Cy Young no matter what.

 

Berrios 22-3 1.98 188 ks 3.8 WARs

Grayson Rodriquez 17-10 2.54 287 Ks 6.5 WARs

 

Berrios wins

 

Berrios 19-7 2.49 188 ks 3.8 WARs

Grayson Rodriquez 17-10 2.54 287 Ks 6.5 WARs

 

Rodriquez wins because even though Berrios won the old man stats he just didn't do it by enough to sway the voters.

[Laika]

You think what we have seen thus far constitutes a "regular" Berrios season? He has been nothing short of stellar. No reason he shouldn't be considered an early CY candidate.

 

His stuff+ is the same as last year

 

He has a 99.4% LOB rate, .250 BABIP against, and has been a bit lucky on homers/FB. I don't actually see any changes vs 2023 other than....

 

- minor pitch mix changes (8% more two-seamers, mainly. a few less changeups. added a cutter as seldom used 5th pitch)

- GB% up 9% (career high)

[Brownie19]

You think what we have seen thus far constitutes a "regular" Berrios season? He has been nothing short of stellar. No reason he shouldn't be considered an early CY candidate.

 

I'm with Masterbather on this one. I think it's highly unlikely Berrios challenges for the Cy Young award this season. At best, we might be looking at 2021 Berrios - hopefully a little step up from that (4-5 WAR season). He's been really good/lucky so far this year and it's not sustainable...but that doesn't mean he won't be a huge contributor for the team and an anchor in the rotation moving forward.

[BTS]

Wow, Varsho's next HR will give him as many in 2024 as Moreno has hit since the trade.

[Brownie19]

Haven’t updated for yesterday’s games. Varsho should leave Trout in his dust

 

Updated. Varsho is 9th in MLB in offensive WAR.

[Jays24]

Varsho is playing amazing and I'm really happy for him. I've hated on him A LOT but his play really warranted that. He seems like a great teammate and always stayed positive throughout the whole process. Take notes Manoah.

[wilko]

(not sure if this has been posted already)

 

I like it, give JS some flexibility once Votto is ready

 

 

I heard EE's giving him throwing tips.

[Jays24]

Can someone find out what the hell happened to Kirk's power? Dude looked like he'd get 20 HRs with a .280 average in his sleep. I guess we can say the same thing about Vlad/Springer.

[wilko]

Wow, Varsho's next HR will give him as many in 2024 as Moreno has hit since the trade.

 

Close the books on that trade!

[Jays24]

(not sure if this has been posted already)

 

I like it, give JS some flexibility once Votto is ready

 

 

I said it before but I'd rather see Vlad at 3B than see Turner there at this stage of his career. It was understandable to leave Vlad at 1B when his bat was good but he's been horrible for his standards so why not see if he can provide positional flexibility. This team needs all the bats it can get into the lineup and that's obviously easier to do if Vlad was at 3B for some situations.

 

If this front office can allow Bo to suck balls for this long at SS, Vlad's thinking why can't I play 3B lol.

[Brownie19]

Varsho is playing amazing and I'm really happy for him. I've hated on him A LOT but his play really warranted that. He seems like a great teammate and always stayed positive throughout the whole process. Take notes Manoah.

 

Just a thought, but perhaps you could also take notes? Baseball players are humans. Baseball is hard. Trades can also be hard and it's not uncommon to see even great players struggle their first year on a new team. Varsho battled for this team last year and despite his offensive struggles, still gave us 2.1 WAR - yet fans s*** all over him and the FO. People called it one of the worst trades in franchise history, wanted Varsho released and wanted the FO and the coaching staff to all lose their jobs. People were doing the same thing in 2022 when Berrios had an awful year.

 

Maybe just relax a bit and understand there are a ton of factors that are outside of the players, coaches and FO's control? Perhaps fans can now see why they were willing to give up a guy like Moreno for Varsho?

 

Also - I don't think anyone here believes Varsho is a 150 wRC+, Top 10 offense player. He's just hot. Hopefully he's a 105-115 wRC+ player who is great on the bases and defensively who can give us 3-5 WAR value for the next 3 years.

[Laika]

Can someone find out what the hell happened to Kirk's power? Dude looked like he'd get 20 HRs with a .280 average in his sleep. I guess we can say the same thing about Vlad/Springer.

 

It's really disappointing. It must be a general athleticism thing. His maxEV and avgEV since the start of 2023 are both lower than the 2021/22 period.

 

Maybe he f***ed up trying to lose weight and ended up losing some muscle, then eating a bunch of churros and now he just has a higher bodyfat% than he used to?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Just a thought, but perhaps you could also take notes? Baseball players are humans. Baseball is hard. Trades can also be hard and it's not uncommon to see even great players struggle their first year on a new team. Varsho battled for this team last year and despite his offensive struggles, still gave us 2.1 WAR - yet fans s*** all over him and the FO. People called it one of the worst trades in franchise history, wanted Varsho released and wanted the FO and the coaching staff to all lose their jobs. People were doing the same thing in 2022 when Berrios had an awful year.

 

Maybe just relax a bit and understand there are a ton of factors that are outside of the players, coaches and FO's control? Perhaps fans can now see why they were willing to give up a guy like Moreno for Varsho?

 

Also - I don't think anyone here believes Varsho is a 150 wRC+, Top 10 offense player. He's just hot. Hopefully he's a 105-115 wRC+ player who is great on the bases and defensively who can give us 3-5 WAR value for the next 3 years.

 

There is one dumbass here that wanted to "shoot Varsho into the sun" every time he posted about him.

 

A 2.1 fWAR OFer (in a bad year) making like $2 million.

 

If Varsho keeps this up he's going to be the Jays WAR leader this year possibly. Good thing we didn't shoot him into the sun I guess.

[burlingtonbandit]

I said it before but I'd rather see Vlad at 3B than see Turner there at this stage of his career. It was understandable to leave Vlad at 1B when his bat was good but he's been horrible for his standards so why not see if he can provide positional flexibility. This team needs all the bats it can get into the lineup and that's obviously easier to do if Vlad was at 3B for some situations.

 

If this front office can allow Bo to suck balls for this long at SS, Vlad's thinking why can't I play 3B lol.

 

Outside of a strong arm, Vlad is terrible at everything else that constitutes being a 3B. His range is terrible at 1st, seems to have trouble picking balls in the dirt and on groundballs. He's not even a good 1st baseman and the team would probably be better off with more Turner starts at 1st and Vladdy at DH quite honestly.

[burlingtonbandit]

Looking at statcast numbers and Schneider up to a .361 xwOBA. He really should be playing at least 5x a week at this point. I think he's one of the 4 best hitters in the lineup right now.

 

Also looking at the pitching numbers so far and its not that pretty from a hard contact perspective. Jays pitchers have given up a ton of barrels/hard hits. Feels like the defense has masked a lot of the pitching mistakes so far. Luckily some of the scrubs like Parsons and White are off the roster and Gauseman looks to be getting healthier so have to think there is some positive regression there.

[Jays24]

Just a thought, but perhaps you could also take notes? Baseball players are humans. Baseball is hard. Trades can also be hard and it's not uncommon to see even great players struggle their first year on a new team. Varsho battled for this team last year and despite his offensive struggles, still gave us 2.1 WAR - yet fans s*** all over him and the FO. People called it one of the worst trades in franchise history, wanted Varsho released and wanted the FO and the coaching staff to all lose their jobs. People were doing the same thing in 2022 when Berrios had an awful year.

 

Maybe just relax a bit and understand there are a ton of factors that are outside of the players, coaches and FO's control? Perhaps fans can now see why they were willing to give up a guy like Moreno for Varsho?

 

Also - I don't think anyone here believes Varsho is a 150 wRC+, Top 10 offense player. He's just hot. Hopefully he's a 105-115 wRC+ player who is great on the bases and defensively who can give us 3-5 WAR value for the next 3 years.

 

I don't disagree with the Varsho part. I didn't watch much of Arizona play so most of what Varsho was doing was brand new to me so I was harsher on him. I also never liked the trade for a few reasons.

 

In regards to Berrios, I always held out hope for him in the long run simply because his body of work was too great.

[Terminator]

Also looking at the pitching numbers so far and its not that pretty from a hard contact perspective. Jays pitchers have given up a ton of barrels/hard hits. Feels like the defense has masked a lot of the pitching mistakes so far. Luckily some of the scrubs like Parsons and White are off the roster and Gauseman looks to be getting healthier so have to think there is some positive regression there.

 

Agree on all this.

 

The defense is so key and doesn't get enough credit. It's so easy for the losers and haters to sit in their mom's basement and tweet about how Atkins couldn't add any offense this offseason. But it never crosses their minds that Gausman remains an ace into his mid 30s, Kikuchi and Berrios had major bounce back seasons and that Bassitt threw 200 innings for the first time in his career at age 34.

 

If you start adding a bunch of Tommy Pham's to the lineup it's going to have an affect on the pitching and how you perceive it.

[Daniel Labude]

I said it before but I'd rather see Vlad at 3B than see Turner there at this stage of his career. It was understandable to leave Vlad at 1B when his bat was good but he's been horrible for his standards so why not see if he can provide positional flexibility. This team needs all the bats it can get into the lineup and that's obviously easier to do if Vlad was at 3B for some situations.

 

If this front office can allow Bo to suck balls for this long at SS, Vlad's thinking why can't I play 3B lol.

C: Jansen/Kirk

3B: Vlad

SS: Bo

2B: Orelvis

1B: Horwitz

LF: Schneider

CF: Varsho

RF: Barger

DH: Springer/Turner

 

YOLO

[Orgfiller]

Agree on all this.

 

The defense is so key and doesn't get enough credit. It's so easy for the losers and haters to sit in their mom's basement and tweet about how Atkins couldn't add any offense this offseason. But it never crosses their minds that Gausman remains an ace into his mid 30s, Kikuchi and Berrios had major bounce back seasons and that Bassitt threw 200 innings for the first time in his career at age 34.

 

If you start adding a bunch of Tommy Pham's to the lineup it's going to have an affect on the pitching and how you perceive it.

 

We have two top 5 CF/OF defenders in the game and another career CF playing a corner and people wonder how the pitching gets away with giving up strong contact lol.

[Laika]

We have two top 5 CF/OF defenders in the game and another career CF playing a corner and people wonder how the pitching gets away with giving up strong contact lol.

 

also gold glovers at 3B and 1B

good defensive C

handsome 2B most of the time

a SS with lots of hair

[Eat My Shatkins]

Agree on all this.

 

The defense is so key and doesn't get enough credit. It's so easy for the losers and haters to sit in their mom's basement and tweet about how Atkins couldn't add any offense this offseason. But it never crosses their minds that Gausman remains an ace into his mid 30s, Kikuchi and Berrios had major bounce back seasons and that Bassitt threw 200 innings for the first time in his career at age 34.

 

If you start adding a bunch of Tommy Pham's to the lineup it's going to have an affect on the pitching and how you perceive it.

 

"I can't believe they brought KK back"

"I can't believe they signed IKF"

 

Same f***s continue to piss and moan in every Jays game thread after WINS due in large part to pitching and defense lmao

[wilko]

also gold glovers at 3B and 1B

good defensive C

handsome 2B most of the time

a SS with lots of hair

 

Biggio?

[Eat My Shatkins]

C: Jansen/Kirk

3B: Vlad

SS: Bo

2B: Orelvis

1B: Horwitz

LF: Schneider

CF: Varsho

RF: Barger

DH: Springer/Turner

 

YOLO

 

I want to see Orelvis, Barger and Horwitz too, but you just pulled the Jays current #2, #4 and #5 fWAR earners out of the line up to do it. (1.6 fWAR to date for IKF, Biggio and Clement)

[burlingtonbandit]

Agree on all this.

 

The defense is so key and doesn't get enough credit. It's so easy for the losers and haters to sit in their mom's basement and tweet about how Atkins couldn't add any offense this offseason. But it never crosses their minds that Gausman remains an ace into his mid 30s, Kikuchi and Berrios had major bounce back seasons and that Bassitt threw 200 innings for the first time in his career at age 34.

 

If you start adding a bunch of Tommy Pham's to the lineup it's going to have an affect on the pitching and how you perceive it.

 

Yeah the broadcast/writers around the team will say "The pitching has been excellent" when really the defense has masked a bunch of it.

 

Also think the pitching has got away with a lot of flyballs that might be homers come later in the summer so hopefully there is some improvement on that end. Its going to be really interesting with how Rogers Centre plays because not sure if its the humidor or what but the ball hasn't been carrying at all so far this year, and even last year it played more as a pitcher's park. Maybe the FO was on to something lol.

[Orgfiller]

IKF is actually underperforming his xWOBA by 27 points (already has a 111 wRC+) while being 93rd percentile in fielding value lol. Ross goes into free agency with one hand behind his back and pulls out gems like it's nothing.

[Terminator]

Yeah the broadcast/writers around the team will say "The pitching has been excellent" when really the defense has masked a bunch of it.

 

Also think the pitching has got away with a lot of flyballs that might be homers come later in the summer so hopefully there is some improvement on that end. Its going to be really interesting with how Rogers Centre plays because not sure if its the humidor or what but the ball hasn't been carrying at all so far this year, and even last year it played more as a pitcher's park. Maybe the FO was on to something lol.

 

Offense is down across the board this year quite a bit. I think it usually is in April but it's even more so this year.

 

Take Vlad Jr., for example. Last year he hit .264/.345/.444 for a wRC+ of 118. He's slashing .230/.350/.368 this year and he's got the same wRC+.

 

Manfred is probably screwing with the balls again.

[Daniel Labude]

I want to see Orelvis, Barger and Horwitz too, but you just pulled the Jays current #2, #4 and #5 fWAR earners out of the line up to do it. (1.6 fWAR to date for IKF, Biggio and Clement)

 

Clement is a utility backup, Biggio's numbers last I looked are awful the deeper you dive. He is being propped up by huge luck, IKF is an overpaid backup. They are all stop gaps early in the season

[Daniel Labude]

Also that all isnt going to happen for a bit, but fun to dream