General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[G-Snarls]

Heart says Bellinger, brain says Chapman.

 

Exactly!

[wamco]

Chap is gonna be back on a 1

Year guaranteed contract .

Maybe 2nd year player option

[wamco]

Then I assume espinal traded within seconds. Biggio could go in this scenario as well if money needed towards deadline.

[G-Snarls]

Chap is gonna be back on a 1

Year guaranteed contract .

Maybe 2nd year player option

 

I wish - but Cubs probably do better than that

[Jays24]

Also another case for Bellinger is that the Jays have a lot of IF depth on the roster already so one injury to the OF and we are totally screwed. I get Biggio and others can play there but that'd be less than ideal.

[glory]

Either sign Chapman to a 1+1 deal (that’s the type of pillow contracts Boras likes) or just sign some lefty mashing 4th OF like Grossman and take your chances with what you have. Bellinger, unless he’s also taking a pillow contract (doubtful) is just too risky.

[Brownie19]

Either sign Chapman to a 1+1 deal (that’s the type of pillow contracts Boras likes) or just sign some lefty mashing 4th OF like Grossman and take your chances with what you have. Bellinger, unless he’s also taking a pillow contract (doubtful) is just too risky.

 

Didn't realize Grossman is such a LHP masher. I wonder if he should consider scraping the switch hitting gig. He can't cost much at all at this point.

[wamco]

You must have missed the 1000 times it has been said

[The_DH]

Chapman still has some compensation attached to him. Don't know if that would have an impact on somebody else offering a pillow contract.

[glory]

Chapman still has some compensation attached to him. Don't know if that would have an impact on somebody else offering a pillow contract.

 

I would think the QO would make Chapman on a pillow contract unattractive to everyone other than the Jays but it depends on the team in question. The Jays were a CBT team last season so their penalties for signing a qualified FA are higher than a non-tax team (which I'm guessing the Cubs and Giants were last year though I haven't looked it up). My guess is if he signs elsewhere it will be a long(er) term deal. If he's looking for a 1 year deal (with a player option for 2025) to enter the market again next season without the QO, then the Jays are probably the most likely to take him up on that.

[deanmike]

There is a 0% chance the team is saying "well f***, it turns out we can get Chapman or Bellinger but unfortunately we're spending 3% of our budget on Isaiah Kiner-Falefa so we'll have to pass". It's absurd to even entertain the possibility that this is happening.

 

I definitely think they're prepping AAV clearing moves in the event they can snag one of them for what they feel is a reasonable cost. Putting themselves over the 2nd threshold before the season starts to land one of them, I would parrot you here and say 0% chance. And no one should be disappointed in anyone but penny pinching Ed Rogers when the Jays do not open the 2024 season as 2nd threshold spenders.

[The_DH]

I would think the QO would make Chapman on a pillow contract unattractive to everyone other than the Jays but it depends on the team in question. The Jays were a CBT team last season so their penalties for signing a qualified FA are higher than a non-tax team (which I'm guessing the Cubs and Giants were last year though I haven't looked it up). My guess is if he signs elsewhere it will be a long(er) term deal. If he's looking for a 1 year deal (with a player option for 2025) to enter the market again next season without the QO, then the Jays are probably the most likely to take him up on that.

 

Pretty much my thoughts too. So some type of 1+ opt outs makes a ton of sense if it's the Jays.

[Laika]

Pretty much my thoughts too. So some type of 1+ opt outs makes a ton of sense if it's the Jays.

 

Yeah maybe something like 3/$60M with an opt out after year 1

[L54]

Chapman still has some compensation attached to him. Don't know if that would have an impact on somebody else offering a pillow contract.

 

Good point hadn’t considered that tbh

[L54]

Makes a Chapman reunion even more likely probably

[L54]

Would kind of be hell if you were a player who liked baseball, to have your peers and friends reporting to spring while you are unemployed for purely financial reasons

 

I agree especially for a guy like Chapman who is probably a baseball junkie who listened to Scotty too Hottie and turned down a 5 year deal

 

Of course that’s the risk you run but both these players could land bigger long term deals next offseason with no pick attached and a good szn

[Jonn]

I guess there are two different complaints:

 

IKF likely being the primary 3B

IKF getting 7.5M a year

 

The first is a legitimate concern for a contending team, but there are a lot of 3B options to throw at the wall if he doesn't look good.

The second is silly. 7.5M on, say, a luxury bench piece the team thinks is highly likely to give them 1-2 WAR while playing multiple positions is not a problem. That's middle reliever money.

 

Attaching Otto Lopez to any of these complaints is just weird. You don't want Otto Lopez on your 40-man roster.

 

We don't want IKF on our 40-man roster either. If they were going to piss money down the drain I could think of better ways.

[Spanky99]

Pecota projections as of today, has Toronto @ 88.5 Wins...

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

Pitchers and catchers officially report today... Yay!

[G-Snarls]

Pecota projections as of today, has Toronto @ 88.5 Wins...

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

Pitchers and catchers officially report today... Yay!

 

Woohoo!

[Spanky99]

Hahahaha... uhmm yeah, everyone's fee fee's...

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

 

Blue Jays

2023: 89-73 (3rd place)

 

Key additions: RHP Yariel Rodriguez, 3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, DH Justin Turner, CF Kevin Kiermaier

 

Key departures: 3B Matt Chapman, DH Brandon Belt, UTIL Whit Merrifield, LHP Hyun Jin Ryu, RHP Jordan Hicks

 

Offseason focus: Toronto’s focus was more internal than external, which isn’t the most common approach to an offseason. The Blue Jays are betting big on their own players rebounding and improving, choosing to supplement them with several veteran pieces after their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani fell short in December. In short, they’re running back a similar roster with belief that it will function better than one year ago.

 

Biggest question: Where does the upside come from? There are easy candidates like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Alejandro Kirk, but the Blue Jays also need to consider the other side of this. What if their pitching regresses after a phenomenal 2023? Will the internal offensive improvements be enough to support that? As it stands, the Blue Jays need a couple of legitimate breakouts at the dish.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm convinced Jays will end up getting Bellinger. LH bat, middle order threat, 1b/of flexibility. He just ticks off the boxes of what the team needs. Assuming Springer goes back to leadoff, vlad/bellinger/turner is a nice middle of the order.

[BTS]

We don't want IKF on our 40-man roster either. If they were going to piss money down the drain I could think of better ways.

 

Well, that's silly. It makes sense to think he's overpaid by a few million, but he's a clear MLB caliber player.

[max silver]

Well, that's silly. It makes sense to think he's overpaid by a few million, but he's a clear MLB caliber player.

 

I was looking at Kiner Falefa's splits from 2023 and comparing to his previous seasons and he actually had the best 3 month stretch of his major league career up to this point.

 

May 119 wRC+

June 98 wRC+

July 127 wRC+

 

Digging into the game logs shows a sustained run of success where he produced better than league average offense. Over a nearly 4 month stretch from about April 20 until August 9 Kiner Falefa managed to produce a 111 wRC+ so he's not completely hopeless with the stick. His splits were perfectly acceptable at .271/.347/.404 .750 OPS 10.0% BB rate 16.9% K rate

 

In mid August the wheels completely fell off as Kiner Falefa went into a deep funk at the plate. The strikeout rate skyrocketed up to 29.1% for the rest of the season. From August 21 until the end of the season IFK only appeared in 15 games, and I'm not sure if he was completely benched with spot duty only or if he was dealing with some sort of physical ailment that limited his availability.

[burlingtonbandit]

I was looking at Kiner Falefa's splits from 2023 and comparing to his previous seasons and he actually had the best 3 month stretch of his major league career up to this point.

 

May 119 wRC+

June 98 wRC+

July 127 wRC+

 

Digging into the game logs shows a sustained run of success where he produced better than league average offense. Over a nearly 4 month stretch from about April 20 until August 9 Kiner Falefa managed to produce a 111 wRC+ so he's not completely hopeless with the stick. His splits were perfectly acceptable at .271/.347/.404 .750 OPS 10.0% BB rate 16.9% K rate

 

In mid August the wheels completely fell off as Kiner Falefa went into a deep funk at the plate. The strikeout rate skyrocketed up to 29.1% for the rest of the season. From August 21 until the end of the season IFK only appeared in 15 games, and I'm not sure if he was completely benched with spot duty only or if he was dealing with some sort of physical ailment that limited his availability.

 

You can put a bunch of flowers around a circle and look at it in different ways but if there is a pile of s*** in the middle, at the end of the day it’s a pile of s***.

 

IKF has been around the same high 80s low 90 wRC+ his entire career, a 4 month cherry picked sample isn’t making me believe any different.

[max silver]

You can put a bunch of flowers around a circle and look at it in different ways but if there is a pile of s*** in the middle, at the end of the day it’s a pile of s***.

 

IKF has been around the same high 80s low 90 wRC+ his entire career, a 4 month cherry picked sample isn’t making me believe any different.

 

He'll more than likely settle into the same offensive output as prior careers but he did manage to produce the best quality of contact metrics of his career. This includes an increase of 1.6 MPH over his previous best exit velocity, a career best hard hit rate, career best barrel rate, and career best xwOBACON. A lot of this was undone by the spike in his strikeout rate, but at least there is a bit of a silver lining in that he managed to produce at a pretty decent rate for much of the season vs simply being bad right throughout as has generally been the case.

[Jimcanuck]

IKF is 28 yrs old, typically the peak of a player's career. He should be better than his past performance, and Max is showing the data that backs it up.

 

Jays FO is much more rigorous in evaluation than we are, and they haven't given me a reason not to trust them.

 

Having said the above, I didn't and still don't like the IKF signing... but we will see.

[max silver]

IKF is 28 yrs old, typically the peak of a player's career. He should be better than his past performance, and Max is showing the data that backs it up.

 

Jays FO is much more rigorous in evaluation than we are, and they haven't given me a reason not to trust them.

 

Having said the above, I didn't and still don't like the IKF signing... but we will see.

 

I'm fine with IKF if he's more of a Merrifield replacement/Espinal upgrade, but as a primary starter I dislike this signing as much as everyone else. I surmise that other front offices were also intrigued by his offensive improvements as there actually seemed to be a bit of a bidding war for his services.

[Governator]

I would really prefer Bellinger. I'd like to have hope we can beat the dodgers for most of the season at least. Chapman not doing it for me.

 

This is the AL East... Dodgers mean nothing to us.

[burlingtonbandit]

He'll more than likely settle into the same offensive output as prior careers but he did manage to produce the best quality of contact metrics of his career. This includes an increase of 1.6 MPH over his previous best exit velocity, a career best hard hit rate, career best barrel rate, and career best xwOBACON. A lot of this was undone by the spike in his strikeout rate, but at least there is a bit of a silver lining in that he managed to produce at a pretty decent rate for much of the season vs simply being bad right throughout as has generally been the case.

 

Well he also struck out 19% last season compared to 13% the 2 years before so maybe he traded some contact for more power, but his 82 wRC+ is the same as it was in prior seasons so I wouldn't bet on those 4 months meaning anything for projecting his future. At 29 years old his defense is likely to decline if anything so he could even be a worse player, who knows.

 

Cavan Biggio had a 126 wRC+ in the second half last season, do I think he's primed for a breakout? No.

[Jays24]

I just feel it's likely we would be playing them in the World Series. Maybe the braves or Phillies I dont know.

 

If we get to the world series, we already had a great year. A team that hasn't won a damn playoff game can't be expecting much more.

 

Now hoping for it is a different case but you'd probably sound delusional to most right now lol.