General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Jimcanuck]

Spring training starts NEXT WEEK and Scott Boras still hasn't found a landing spot for Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell

 

I bet he has offers on the table for all 4

[G-Snarls]

I bet he has offers on the table for all 4

 

I'm sure he does

 

Just holding out for more dollars/years

[Jonn]

I wonder what kind of offers Bellinger is even getting at this point.

 

Jays have about $6 million left before they hit the next luxury threshold, and $26 million to the one after that.

 

Something like 5/$150 would be very palatable right now for Bellinger.

 

Pretty unlikely? Impossible?

 

If they give Cody Bellinger 150 million I’m gonna have a stroke.

[TheHurl]

I wonder what kind of offers Bellinger is even getting at this point.

 

None. Zero not one

[TheHurl]

I really think Snell holds out until May

[Jonn]

Spring training starts NEXT WEEK and Scott Boras still hasn't found a landing spot for Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell

 

Almost like he’s not a very good agent. You haven’t got the reigning NL CY Young award winner, an All-Star in Cody Bellinger, a Gold Glover in Matt Chapman, and an integral part of a World Series Rotation a job.

 

Seems to be that Bellinger will end up back with the Cubs. And Montgomery back with the Rangers. They are just waiting to see what other teams offer and match it.

[Jonn]

I really think Snell holds out until May

 

Orioles got money now. I think they make that splash even if its shorter term. Don’t think holding out for him makes sense. He just had his eyes on 7 or 8 years and that was never coming.

 

He will sign a big 3 year deal with opt outs.

[Sorrow]

If we didn't sign a DH I'd see Bellinger as an option but with Turner, Varsho, KK, Springer and Vladdy I just don't see a clear route to playing time allocation without a trade.

 

Bellinger on something like 6/150 or whatever bumping Vlad to DH would have been fine but I don't see a good fit with the roster now. Chapman is still a really good fit.

[connorp]

How many times has Boras went to the wire with a big client and how many times did they get paid as they should? I’d like to think way more than not, but it’s a not a rhetorical question.

[connorp]

I mean like a guy expecting a 5-6y + deal

[Jimcanuck]

If we didn't sign a DH I'd see Bellinger as an option but with Turner, Varsho, KK, Springer and Vladdy I just don't see a clear route to playing time allocation without a trade.

 

Bellinger on something like 6/150 or whatever bumping Vlad to DH would have been fine but I don't see a good fit with the roster now. Chapman is still a really good fit.

 

KK is a 4th OF on a good team

[John_Havok]

KK is a 4th OF on a good team

 

LOL... just .... no. Not yet.

 

4th OF don't consist of being the benchmark in CF defense for a decade, combined with a league average bat.

 

he might be in a few years though.

[Jimcanuck]

LOL... just .... no.

 

4th OF don't consist of being the benchmark in CF defense for a decade, combined with a league average bat.

 

No need for the stupid LOL.

 

KK's bat is projected to be 16% below average this year, and he's projected to deliver a grand total of 1.2 WAR over 378 PA (Steamer). He's also 34 yrs old and is not the defender he once was.

 

As I said, he's a 4th OF on a good team.

[TheHurl]

Orioles got money now. I think they make that splash even if its shorter term. Don’t think holding out for him makes sense. He just had his eyes on 7 or 8 years and that was never coming.

 

He will sign a big 3 year deal with opt outs.

 

It's also rumoured that he's got a specific list of types of teams he will sign with. I have to believe O's are one, but man he's painted himself potentially into a corner. Spring injuries will put the power back in his side.

[John_Havok]

No need for the stupid LOL.

 

KK's bat is projected to be 16% below average this year, and he's projected to deliver a grand total of 1.2 WAR over 378 PA (Steamer). He's also 34 yrs old and is not the defender he once was.

 

As I said, he's a 4th OF on a good team.

 

You have a weird definition of a good team when a 2 WAR CF is a 4th OF. That's an all star team.

[TheHurl]

KK is a 4th OF on a good team

 

Haven't looked it up, but are there more than 3 teams in baseball with 3 OF's projected with a 1.6 fWAR or better?

[Brownie19]

It's also rumoured that he's got a specific list of types of teams he will sign with. I have to believe O's are one, but man he's painted himself potentially into a corner. Spring injuries will put the power back in his side.

 

The guy can only pitch twice through the lineup and walks 5 per 9. Teams aren't paying for that type of pitcher.

[Sorrow]

Haven't looked it up, but are there more than 3 teams in baseball with 3 OF's projected with a 1.6 fWAR or better?

 

I did actually look at this earlier today. Baltimore, White Sox, Houston, Dodgers, Mets, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, St Louis (4), Texas.

[TheHurl]

The guy can only pitch twice through the lineup and walks 5 per 9. Teams aren't paying for that type of pitcher.

 

especially when his requirement is that they let him pitch a third time through. His case is okay as San Diego let him do that and his slash line against last year 3rd time facing the lineup was .121/.297/.205 (165 batters faced) . While it's contrary to his career numbers those are a solid argument for requesting it.

[Terminator]

How many times has Boras went to the wire with a big client and how many times did they get paid as they should? I’d like to think way more than not, but it’s a not a rhetorical question.

 

Yeah this happens every year.

 

Casual fans will scream "WTH is Boras doing???"

 

And then his clients make bank every single time.

[TheHurl]

I did actually look at this earlier today. Baltimore, White Sox, Houston, Dodgers, Mets, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, St Louis (4), Texas.

 

interesting thanks. I assume in calculating the Dodgers you counted Betts as an OF? Cause only Teo and Outman are by Depth Charts PA's. Also the White Sox must be wrong. They barely have four htters on their team projected for 1.6. And who is the Pirates third?

[Laika]

Didn't Boras blow it for a few guys in recent years.

 

Keuchel, maybe Moustakas? Greg Holland something something with the Rockies?

[Sorrow]

interesting thanks. I assume in calculating the Dodgers you counted Betts as an OF? Cause only Teo and Outman are by Depth Charts PA's. Also the White Sox must be wrong. They barely have four htters on their team projected for 1.6. And who is the Pirates third?

 

I was genuinely just looking at STEAMER projections filtered by OF. It likely did count Betts as an OF.

 

For the Pirates it's counting Davis as an OF as STEAMER seems to think he won't be behind the plate other wise its Suwinski or whatever his name is and Reynolds. White Sox is using Eloy as an OF and expecting Vaughn to be in the OF and putting up 1.8.

[Jimcanuck]

Haven't looked it up, but are there more than 3 teams in baseball with 3 OF's projected with a 1.6 fWAR or better?

 

I did a different approach, and looked at Steamer WAR projections for the 4th OF listed on good teams:

 

TEX, Langford - 1.3

NYY, Grisham - 1.1

NYM, Marte - 1.1

LAD, Taylor - 0.9

HOU, Meyers - 1.0

CHC, PCA - 1.1

ATL, Kelenic - 1.0

ARI, Gurriel Jr - 1.1

 

Top comparables for KK as a 4th OF would be Grisham and PCA.

 

In any event, KK's 1.2 WAR projection fits within the above group.

[TheHurl]

I did actually look at this earlier today. Baltimore, White Sox, Houston, Dodgers, Mets, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, St Louis (4), Texas.

 

The three I had in my head were O's, Astros and Rangers. Wasn't thinking Siri would be projected ahead of him, and Cards make sense as everyone on their team plays a little OF. Decided to look up the others. Mets only have Bader and Nimmo. White Sox only have Robert and Eloy (who won't see much or any time). Pirates it's just Reynolds and Suwinski. Dodgers I just wasn't thinking of Betts but would have included them.

[connorp]

Didn't Boras blow it for a few guys in recent years.

 

Keuchel, maybe Moustakas? Greg Holland something something with the Rockies?

 

Unless those names are from 7 years ago, they don’t count. Anyways, even if he doesn’t have 100% success rate with big names, it’s pretty darn high. Though Chapman is casual unsexy, so I’m not sure about him

[TheHurl]

I did a different approach, and looked at Steamer WAR projections for the 4th OF listed on good teams:

 

TEX, Langford - 1.3

NYY, Grisham - 1.1

NYM, Marte - 1.1

LAD, Taylor - 0.9

HOU, Meyers - 1.0

CHC, PCA - 1.1

ATL, Kelenic - 1.0

ARI, Gurriel Jr - 1.1

 

Top comparables for KK as a 4th OF would be Grisham and PCA.

 

In any event, KK's 1.2 WAR projection fits within the above group.

 

fair enough but Steamer doesn't really do a good job of projecting plate appearances. Not sure why Depth Charts hasn't calculated in Steamer yet. When that happens I expect KK to come down to 1.5. ZIPS is higher on him.

[Jimcanuck]

fair enough but Steamer doesn't really do a good job of projecting plate appearances. Not sure why Depth Charts hasn't calculated in Steamer yet. When that happens I expect KK to come down to 1.5. ZIPS is higher on him.

 

Where are you getting the 1.5?

 

Ah I see, so its based on KK being the starting CF, and generating 1.6 WAR in that role. While Steamer projects 4th OF usage, dropping the WAR to 1.2.

[Laika]

Unless those names are from 7 years ago, they don’t count. Anyways, even if he doesn’t have 100% success rate with big names, it’s pretty darn high. Though Chapman is casual unsexy, so I’m not sure about him

 

I'm not sure the risk reward is proportionate. You can't really measure it by saying most of the time it's a success, because the downsides are near catastrophic.

 

In 2019 Corbin and Keuchel were expected to get like $120M and $90M. Corbin signed for 6/$140M. Good thing he did. Keuchel held out and got like $13M. He had to get pretty lucky and perform highly again to make decent money after that.

 

A less aggressive agent probably advises their player to just take the offer that is 85% of what they want, at some point. The downside is not "catastrophy" like it is with Boras shenanigans. Keuchel was one elbow injury away from leaving something like $70M on the table for all we know

[connorp]

Seems really anecdotal. I don’t remember much specifics around Keuchel. Some will obviously be up to the client too. Like if Bellinger doesn’t want to take 5/125 or something, that was always on the table. and would rather prove it on the field, if he takes the short deal, it’s not a fail. Maybe he doesn’t want the underwhelming long term deal

 

Anyways, i feel like Boras should get the benefit of the doublt. Again, Chappy is kind of different. He’s not Bellinger or Kris Bryant. Not much sexy going except to Dinger