General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[glory]

From an entertainment standpoint I thought 2022 was fine aside from the 3000 plate appearances that Raimel Tapia was given. Yes some pitchers struggled but that happens year to year.

 

The 2023 team was torture to watch from beginning to end.

[Spanky99]

From an entertainment standpoint I thought 2022 was fine aside from the 3000 plate appearances that Raimel Tapia was given. Yes some pitchers struggled but that happens year to year.

 

The 2023 team was torture to watch from beginning to end.

 

Pitching wasn't torture...

[Brownie19]

I don't think that is completely true

 

Last year the regular season was a disappointing experience start to finish. Yes, a playoff run would have turned the whole thing around but it wasn't like the team was fun to watch and exciting and they just happened to lose in R1.

 

2022 was a similar experience, just not as bad. Berrios and Kikuchi were nightmares every fifth day. Vlad treaded water, Gurriel did nothing but punch singles, Tapia got 400+ PA, it was a hit or miss regular season.

 

2021 might have been the best fan experience start to finish. Vlad beasted, Ray won the Cy Young. They didn't even make the playoffs but in 2022 and 2023 they might as well have not made the playoffs, haha.

 

2020 was the Covid year so any baseball was gravy. I would say it was fun because there were no expectations.

 

So I agree with Connor Pee Pee. Each season has been a disappointment to some extent because the front office has failed to put together a complete team that clicks on all cylinders at any point. It just hasn't happened. At best they have looked like a B contender.

 

Not disappointing would mean serious division contention, or least a couple of months in there where they look like an elite team.

 

I think it's ridiculous to suggest the success of the GM is primarily based on the results v. the expectations of the fans. Did the Rangers exceed fan expectations last year? After a hot start, they were 55-51 from June-Sept and limped into the playoffs with no DeGrom and a useless/injured Scherzer. They weren't favored to win ANY round until the WS. If they bowed out in the 1st round, they'd be bitching about their GM, just like Jays fans are. But, they won the coin flips, they won the WS.

 

For my perspective, I think in 2020 we exceeded expectations - I didn't expect them to make the playoffs that year (shortened season or not). 2021 was exciting, but we came up a bit short and that momentum set some high expectations for 2022/2023. I think we met those expectations in 2022, but lost the coin flip in excruciating fashion. In 2023 our stars decided to take a massive cleveland steamer on the fans/team - yet we still managed to make it into the playoffs (where we were favorites to win the 1st round). So while I agree that I felt the disappointment - I don't think that's a great reason to hate on the GM (then again, I don't expect most fans to understand why they feel the way they do and make rational opinions). Good news is Ownership/Shapiro probably look at thing is a much more rational way than fans and seem to be giving Atkins full support.

[L54]

Only a disappointment based on playoff success. If we win a few coin flips, your perception changes.

 

Not sure what you were watching last year but that regular season was the most underwhelming Jays season many have witnessed in a long time

[Laika]

I think it's ridiculous to suggest the success of the GM is primarily based on the results v. the expectations of the fans. Did the Rangers exceed fan expectations last year? After a hot start, they were 55-51 from June-Sept and limped into the playoffs with no DeGrom and a useless/injured Scherzer. They weren't favored to win ANY round until the WS. If they bowed out in the 1st round, they'd be bitching about their GM, just like Jays fans are. But, they won the coin flips, they won the WS.

 

For my perspective, I think in 2020 we exceeded expectations - I didn't expect them to make the playoffs that year (shortened season or not). 2021 was exciting, but we came up a bit short and that momentum set some high expectations for 2022/2023. I think we met those expectations in 2022, but lost the coin flip in excruciating fashion. In 2023 our stars decided to take a massive cleveland steamer on the fans/team - yet we still managed to make it into the playoffs (where we were favorites to win the 1st round). So while I agree that I felt the disappointment - I don't think that's a great reason to hate on the GM (then again, I don't expect most fans to understand why they feel the way they do and make rational opinions). Good news is Ownership/Shapiro probably look at thing is a much more rational way than fans and seem to be giving Atkins full support.

 

I don't disagree with you

 

Atkins has my continuing support

 

BUT if 2024 and 2025 play out much the same as 2023 and 2022, then massive changes are needed because it some point you would start to question his ability to put the final touches on a roster or spearhead a good development organization. Too early for that though.

 

Process over results, sure, but it's not like the Jays processes are clearly great. Some evidence on the prospect and player development side of things point to the contrary.

[Brownie19]

I don't disagree with you

 

Atkins has my continuing support

 

BUT if 2024 and 2025 play out much the same as 2023 and 2022, then massive changes are needed because it some point you would start to question his ability to put the final touches on a roster or spearhead a good development organization. Too early for that though.

 

Process over results, sure, but it's not like the Jays processes are clearly great. Some evidence on the prospect and player development side of things point to the contrary.

 

I think that's fair. But there's a solid chance we make the playoffs again in 2024 and 2025. If that happens, Atkins will have taken this team to the playoffs in every season you could reasonably expect him to (2016, 2020, 2022-2025) - EXCEPT for 1 season (2021) where we missed out by 1-2 games. All GM's have a shelf life and either way, we're probably nearing the end of the Atkins era. I'm not sure how many would find a way to complain about those results.

 

I'm not sure I buy that GM's putting the "final touches" on a roster is even a thing. In 2021, AA added a bunch of BUMS (Soler, Roserio, Pederson) who all magically turned it around and carried the Braves to the title. Last year, the Rangers trade for Scherzer and Chapman - and they both sucked massive dongs in the playoffs. AA threw s*** against the wall and it stuck. Rangers trade for some legit players and both are injured/useless. We've seen a few GM's who actually sold at the deadline and ended up winning playoff rounds. The playoffs are all about hitting hot streaks and avoiding injuries at the right time.

[Brownie19]

Not sure what you were watching last year but that regular season was the most underwhelming Jays season many have witnessed in a long time

 

Oh I 100% agree. The results were there in the end, but the fan experience sucked. If the Jays won a couple playoff series last year, or went to the WS - we'd probably all be talking how Ross was so smart to balance the team out with more pitching and defense (after having the 2nd best offense in baseball in 2022, but failing in the playoffs because we couldn't pitch or play defense). But we lost the coin flips and now some just want more offense back because it's more exciting to watch.

[justafan]

Maybe Alonso is over-paid!

[burlingtonbandit]

A big part of this as well has been the garbage offseason to date. You combine last year's failure with a lackluster offseason of overpaying marginal talents and the projected win total of 84-87 games with a 50% chance of the postseason based on projections and here we are.

 

If the Jays had a top 10 or even top 15 farm system with a 5 or 6 prospects above 50FV knocking on the door the perception of Atkins would be different as well. Its when you combine the expectations that the Jays would be competing for division titles as well as the lack of playoff success, the large payroll and the below average farm system that you realize well maybe Atkins isn't that good of a GM.

 

The offseason isn't done but when you hear that the Blue Jays are "done their heavy lifting" you're left with a sour taste in your mouth given the holes that still remain on the roster.

[John_Havok]

A big part of this as well has been the garbage offseason to date. You combine last year's failure with a lackluster offseason of overpaying marginal talents and the projected win total of 84-87 games with a 50% chance of the postseason based on projections and here we are.

 

If the Jays had a top 10 or even top 15 farm system with a 5 or 6 prospects above 50FV knocking on the door the perception of Atkins would be different as well. Its when you combine the expectations that the Jays would be competing for division titles as well as the lack of playoff success, the large payroll and the below average farm system that you realize well maybe Atkins isn't that good of a GM.

 

The offseason isn't done but when you hear that the Blue Jays are "done their heavy lifting" you're left with a sour taste in your mouth given the holes that still remain on the roster.

 

I understand this POV, but .... there's nothing out there to lift that really "heavy" amongst free agents. I don't buy Bellinger as a consistent 5+ win guy. It's clear MLB clubs don't either. There's some "would be cool to have" guys, but nothing that screams "add him and you're all but guaranteed playoffs"

 

The heavy lifting needs to come from the guys already in house. Vlad for sure has to be at least a 4WAR guy minimum (ideally 5.5+). Varsho needs to be 3 minimum (ideally 4+). Springer needs to bounce back to 3+. Kirk needs to find that consistency. Those 4 guys alone trending up is the real heavy lifting.

 

a breakout or random career season from someone else would be nice too from a guy like Schneider, Biggio, a healthy Jansen, or even a reliever not named Mayza, Green or Romano.

[L54]

Oh I 100% agree. The results were there in the end, but the fan experience sucked. If the Jays won a couple playoff series last year, or went to the WS - we'd probably all be talking how Ross was so smart to balance the team out with more pitching and defense (after having the 2nd best offense in baseball in 2022, but failing in the playoffs because we couldn't pitch or play defense). But we lost the coin flips and now some just want more offense back because it's more exciting to watch.

 

I mean part of the reason they didn’t win a couple playoff series last year is because the team wasn’t that great

 

People want offense back because the team was middle of the pack in runs scored. More runs scored equals greater chance of success. I don’t blame anybody who wants to see their team score more runs, or goals, or touchdowns

[Jimcanuck]

I understand this POV, but .... there's nothing out there to lift that really "heavy" amongst free agents. I don't buy Bellinger as a consistent 5+ win guy. It's clear MLB clubs don't either. There's some "would be cool to have" guys, but nothing that screams "add him and you're all but guaranteed playoffs"

 

The heavy lifting needs to come from the guys already in house. Vlad for sure has to be at least a 4WAR guy minimum (ideally 5.5+). Varsho needs to be 3 minimum (ideally 4+). Springer needs to bounce back to 3+. Kirk needs to find that consistency. Those 4 guys alone trending up is the real heavy lifting.

 

a breakout or random career season from someone else would be nice too from a guy like Schneider, Biggio, a healthy Jansen, or even a reliever not named Mayza, Green or Romano.

 

I don't think anyone has Belly as a 5+ WAR guy. But average 3 WAR over the life of the contract? That's not unreasonable, and a valuable player.

[wilko]

I don't think anyone has Belly as a 5+ WAR guy. But average 3 WAR over the life of the contract? That's not unreasonable, and a valuable player.

 

200M + valuable?

[Jimcanuck]

200M + valuable?

 

Over what term? Over 6 years, of course not.

 

We are just talking WAR expectation. $/WAR is a separate discussion.

[Laika]

I think that's fair. But there's a solid chance we make the playoffs again in 2024 and 2025. If that happens, Atkins will have taken this team to the playoffs in every season you could reasonably expect him to (2016, 2020, 2022-2025) - EXCEPT for 1 season (2021) where we missed out by 1-2 games. All GM's have a shelf life and either way, we're probably nearing the end of the Atkins era. I'm not sure how many would find a way to complain about those results.

 

I'm not sure I buy that GM's putting the "final touches" on a roster is even a thing. In 2021, AA added a bunch of BUMS (Soler, Roserio, Pederson) who all magically turned it around and carried the Braves to the title. Last year, the Rangers trade for Scherzer and Chapman - and they both sucked massive dongs in the playoffs. AA threw s*** against the wall and it stuck. Rangers trade for some legit players and both are injured/useless. We've seen a few GM's who actually sold at the deadline and ended up winning playoff rounds. The playoffs are all about hitting hot streaks and avoiding injuries at the right time.

 

Final touches was meant to mean something more like... turn the team from good to great.

[Laika]

I don't think anyone has Belly as a 5+ WAR guy. But average 3 WAR over the life of the contract? That's not unreasonable, and a valuable player.

 

Sounds good. He should sign for the George Springer deal at the most, then.

[Jimcanuck]

Sounds good. He should sign for the George Springer deal at the most, then.

 

6/180 would be acceptable

[Brownie19]

I mean part of the reason they didn’t win a couple playoff series last year is because the team wasn’t that great

 

People want offense back because the team was middle of the pack in runs scored. More runs scored equals greater chance of success. I don’t blame anybody who wants to see their team score more runs, or goals, or touchdowns

 

Runs prevented also equals greater chance of success. A run prevented is a run scored.

 

The Jays probability of beating Minnesota last year was 55.6%. The Rays were a 99 win team and their probability of beating the Rangers was only 56.7%. Even the best teams in baseball are only expected to win their series like 60-63% of the time. If the best teams were expected to win their series like 80+%, then I'd agree that pushing and "going for it" more often would yield much better playoff success. But it really doesn't move needle a lot.

[Brownie19]

Final touches was meant to mean something more like... turn the team from good to great.

 

Like the Mets and Braves did last offseason?

[burlingtonbandit]

I understand this POV, but .... there's nothing out there to lift that really "heavy" amongst free agents. I don't buy Bellinger as a consistent 5+ win guy. It's clear MLB clubs don't either. There's some "would be cool to have" guys, but nothing that screams "add him and you're all but guaranteed playoffs"

 

The heavy lifting needs to come from the guys already in house. Vlad for sure has to be at least a 4WAR guy minimum (ideally 5.5+). Varsho needs to be 3 minimum (ideally 4+). Springer needs to bounce back to 3+. Kirk needs to find that consistency. Those 4 guys alone trending up is the real heavy lifting.

 

a breakout or random career season from someone else would be nice too from a guy like Schneider, Biggio, a healthy Jansen, or even a reliever not named Mayza, Green or Romano.

 

I know what you are saying that it takes 2 to tango but even the KK plus IKF signings weren't ideal/bad. There's an element of reading the market and if we see guys like Bellinger/Chapman sign shorter term deals it's going to sting.

 

I'm more hopeful on Vladdy and Varsho, Springer at this age might just be more of a 2 Win guy. He looked a lot older last season and the bat speed just didn't quite seem the same.

 

Agreed, a young player breaking out would be really help on a lot of fronts.

[burlingtonbandit]

Runs prevented also equals greater chance of success. A run prevented is a run scored.

 

The Jays probability of beating Minnesota last year was 55.6%. The Rays were a 99 win team and their probability of beating the Rangers was only 56.7%. Even the best teams in baseball are only expected to win their series like 60-63% of the time. If the best teams were expected to win their series like 80+%, then I'd agree that pushing and "going for it" more often would yield much better playoff success. But it really doesn't move needle a lot.

 

You can't just keep pointing to "randomness and luck" and throw your hands up in the air and say well better luck next year. Sure luck is a big factor, but Power and more specifically home runs is a huge driver of success in the postseason and the Jays were terrible all year in that department. So part of it is roster construction. the Phillies hit a ton of homers and look how much success they've had the last 2 postseasons. Its been 6 consecutive losses, not just 2 or 3.

[Laika]

Like the Mets and Braves did last offseason?

 

Braves? Absolutely.

 

No, like what the Astros accomplished a decade ago. I don't mean push short term chips onto the table. Finishing touches on the organization would be a better phrase.

 

It's mostly boring procedural stuff, or personnel stuff; having the correct employees, coaches, systems, and processes to allow you to be a great organization rather than a merely good organization.

 

There are a few great organizations in baseball. Dodgers, Astros, Rays (have to be great to succeed for so long with so little resources). And then there are, like FIFTEEN or more solid organizations that jockey for positioning but have certain flaws and varying strengths. Many of these organizations cut off their own heads every once in a while because sometimes being merely good just isn't good enough. The Jays are just somewhere in this big glut of second tier teams, not obviously a better organization than certain front offices that may not have even finished .500 last year.

[Brownie19]

Braves? Absolutely.

 

No, like what the Astros accomplished a decade ago. I don't mean push short term chips onto the table. Finishing touches on the organization would be a better phrase.

 

It's mostly boring procedural stuff, or personnel stuff; having the correct employees, coaches, systems, and processes to allow you to be a great organization rather than a merely good organization.

 

There are a few great organizations in baseball. Dodgers, Astros, Rays (have to be great to succeed for so long with so little resources). And then there are, like FIFTEEN or more solid organizations that jockey for positioning but have certain flaws and varying strengths. Many of these organizations cut off their own heads every once in a while because sometimes being merely good just isn't good enough. The Jays are just somewhere in this big glut of second tier teams, not obviously a better organization than certain front offices that may not have even finished .500 last year.

 

OK - I can buy that.

[max silver]

You can't just keep pointing to "randomness and luck" and throw your hands up in the air and say well better luck next year. Sure luck is a big factor, but Power and more specifically home runs is a huge driver of success in the postseason and the Jays were terrible all year in that department. So part of it is roster construction. the Phillies hit a ton of homers and look how much success they've had the last 2 postseasons. Its been 6 consecutive losses, not just 2 or 3.

 

With performances in line with expectations with the power on the 2023 roster I think the Blue Jays should have hit 15-20 more home runs than they did if not more. I have suspicions the team approach was off last season which led to some of the power outage compared to projections.

 

The 6 consecutive post season losses are comprised on 3 completely different teams which lost due to different reasons. I'd view these as more of the 3 separate series losses in 2 games a piece vs viewing this as a singular entity. For instance the 2020 likely wouldn't have made the playoffs in the first place over a full 162 game season so it really shouldn't be lumped in with the losses in later seasons.

[Brownie19]

You can't just keep pointing to "randomness and luck" and throw your hands up in the air and say well better luck next year. Sure luck is a big factor, but Power and more specifically home runs is a huge driver of success in the postseason and the Jays were terrible all year in that department. So part of it is roster construction. the Phillies hit a ton of homers and look how much success they've had the last 2 postseasons. Its been 6 consecutive losses, not just 2 or 3.

 

Yes I can, because far too many fans understand the randomness and luck of it all. The Dodgers have "won the offseason" this year - all while increasing the likelihood of winning a playoff series by 2%.

 

As for hitting home runs - that's just the new narrative. in 2015/2016, the Jays were s*** on for "relying on the long ball too much" and "you can't wait for the HR in the playoffs - the pitching is too good - you need to manufacture runs". Teams started looking for high contact rates and few K%'s as you needed to put the ball in play in the playoffs to win. Arizona was 22nd in HR's last year and they went to the world series. Did they benefit from a few hitters (like Moreno) hitting home runs WELL above their typical rate, in key games? Of course they did - but that's all random s***. The Twins were 3rd in the majors in HR's last year - did that make them a serious WS contender in your mind? Me neither. They weren't even favored v. the Jays, who couldn't hit s***.

 

This talk that you need to hit HRs to win in the playoffs is just another copycat situation. A few teams have success with it and then everyone thinks that's answer. You see this s*** all the time. KC started the "you can't wait for the HR in the playoffs - the pitching is too good - you need to manufacture runs" narrative in 2015/2016 - when they really just ran into a f***ton of BABIP luck.

 

KC also started the "lockdown bullpens win championships" - until Washington won in 2019 when it became "great starting pitching is what it takes to win in the playoffs". This s*** changes regularly because there is no formula to win in the playoffs - just as there's no formula to win at the casino regularly. So much randomness in both.

[Jimcanuck]

A good rule of thumb - playoff success is 50% team quality and 50% luck. As Jays fans everywhere know, having the best team does not mean winning the WS

[RustyTrombone]

Anyone else think Atkins isnt committing long term salary this winter so he can go all out for Soto next year?

[Spanky99]

Anyone else think Atkins isnt committing long term salary this winter so he can go all out for Soto next year?

 

I'm hoping that's it. Soto's a game changer.

[Krylian]

Anyone else think Atkins isnt committing long term salary this winter so he can go all out for Soto next year?

 

Atkins won't be GM next year

[Stangstag]

Anyone else think Atkins isnt committing long term salary this winter so he can go all out for Soto next year?

 

I want to believe