General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[L54]

Every day that goes by with Bellinger and Chapman unsigned makes me think it is more likely they end up signing something like that.

 

3/$60M with an opt out after year 1 so he can have another shot at a big deal if he wants.

 

Ya I agree especially Chapman. Kinda looks like Boras overshot both of them. Chappy probably had 5/100 on the table as an extension

[Jimcanuck]

Ya I agree especially Chapman. Kinda looks like Boras overshot both of them. Chappy probably had 5/100 on the table as an extension

 

Bally Sports effect?

[Laika]

Ya I agree especially Chapman. Kinda looks like Boras overshot both of them. Chappy probably had 5/100 on the table as an extension

 

It's like the Edwin Encarnacion offseason, except this time Toronto didn't immediately pivot to a Kendry Morales (because there was no Kendry Morales)

[Sorrow]

I think the Bally Sports thing is a big hold up. My source who now works for a non Jays org was saying that they’re still not 100% sure what their operating budget for 2024 is.

[Jimcanuck]

it's like the edwin encarnacion offseason, except this time toronto didn't immediately pivot to a kendry morales (because there was no kendry morales)

 

ikf?

[Laika]

ikf?

 

don't do this

[Laika]

I basically do not even care who they sign at this point as long as they spend some more money and avoid any albatross deals, haha.

 

Chapman and done? awesome.

Bellinger and done? sweet.

Soler and some 3B bum like Brian Anderson? sure...

JDM and nothing else? I guess I'll take it.

Turner + Pham? cool.

Belt + Urshela? I hate you, Ross.

[glory]

It's definitely the Bally deal holding things up. Local TV revenue is huge for teams and not knowing how much of that they are going to see in 2024-beyond is going to impact how they spend. Unfortunately the top players are Boras guys, otherwise a team like the Jays might have been able to benefit like they did in 2020-21 when they signed Springer and Semien (who didn't become a Boras guy until after the 2021 season) when 90% of the teams sat out the off-season.

 

As far as who the Jays end up with, I think it will be one FA signing (Soler or JDM). Maybe there is a trade that becomes available to them but I think it's far more likely they add a DH and roll with IKF at 3B.

[Brownie19]

It's like the Edwin Encarnacion offseason, except this time Toronto didn't immediately pivot to a Kendry Morales (because there was no Kendry Morales)

 

Perhaps Candelario was the equivalent to Morales this offseason?

[Jays24]

Maybe what the hold up is that a team like the Jays prefer to sign Bellinger and if they do, they don't have the money to spend on a DH?

[Jimcanuck]

Maybe what the hold up is that a team like the Jays prefer to sign Bellinger and if they do, they don't have the money to spend on a DH?

 

Entirely possible. It may be primarily between the Jays and Yanks for Bellinger.

[BigCecil]

3/60M come on down Chappy

 

Feeling benevolent and willing to spend even more Rogers money on Chappy than 3/60.

 

I would give a kidney to avoid watching IKF play there and get Tapia level ABs next year.

[G-Snarls]

Would love that. Guy couldn't hit a thing most of the year and is still a 3.5 WAR player. A lot of his underlying numbers on O are tantalizing.

 

Crushing 400 foot flyball outs to CF was a significant "problem"

[Brownie19]

Varsho/KK/Belly in the OF with Springer at DH would be sublime to watch defensively.

[G-Snarls]

CF dead zone

 

Is it the park or the player or both?

 

-

 

[Jays24]

Varsho/KK/Belly in the OF with Springer at DH would be sublime to watch defensively.

 

We could also DH Vlad more and play Bellinger at 1B too. It's still my #1 hopeful outcome but don't see it happening.

[Jays24]

CF dead zone

 

Is it the park or the player or both?

 

-

 

 

If anyone would benefit from one cycle of roids, it would be Chappy. He'd legit become a hall of famer if he found a way to avoid detection lol.

[G-Snarls]

If anyone would benefit from one cycle of roids, it would be Chappy. He'd legit become a half of famer if he found a way to avoid detection lol.

 

Yeah

 

5 more feet on his average flyballs would prob get him 10 more homers/doubles a year

[deanmike]

Think he's just making a "sol" joke

 

Nope. To follow up on this, Scott Mitchell did a podcast appearance today and around the 17:30 mark he said Soler signing is imminent and wouldn't be surprised if he signs today.

 

Seems like a matter of when, not if, for Soler to the Blue Jays.

 

Also for anyone who prefers JDM or Turner over Soler, just know that Ross Atkins will NEVER choose an FA who projects for 0.7 (Turner) or 0.5 (JDM) fWAR over 1.9 fWAR (Soler). No one should be surprised that Soler is the preferred target here.

[Abomination]

Also for anyone who prefers JDM or Turner over Soler, just know that Ross Atkins will NEVER choose an FA who projects for 0.7 (Turner) or 0.5 (JDM) fWAR over 1.9 fWAR (Soler). No one should be surprised that Soler is the preferred target here.

 

We don't know what the Jays internal projections say about those players. It's not like the front offices just look at Fangraphs for their information. You can bet what they use is far more advanced.

[Jimcanuck]

We could also DH Vlad more and play Bellinger at 1B too. It's still my #1 hopeful outcome but don't see it happening.

 

Yeah, Springer in LF is much much less of a defensive hit than Vlad at 1B

[wamco]

Dean can we fit soler and grichuk in the budget? Grichuk had a 995 and 926 ops vs lefties the last 2 seasons

[deanmike]

Dean can we fit soler and grichuk in the budget? Grichuk had a 995 and 926 ops vs lefties the last 2 seasons

 

Depending on how cheap Grichuk signs for and if the Jays try to squeeze Vlad in arb, maybe. I'm assuming 14-15M AAV for Soler and the Jays have 18M or less left under the 2nd threshold. The reason why I say "or less" is because if the Jays and Vlad come to a pre arb settlement it will most likely be a Bo-type arb avoidance deal that covers his remaining arb years and walks him to FA, with an AAV that will obviously be higher than if the Jays were to push for a 1 year settlement.

 

However, all signs have been pointing to an Espinal trade all offseason so I almost want to assume the Jays have around 21M or less left, if Espinal is indeed shipped out.

[wamco]

So you are saying there’s a chance!!

[Stangstag]

Yeah

 

5 more feet on his average flyballs would prob get him 10 more homers/doubles a year

 

The difference of the juiced ball era vs current era. Dudes like Matt Chapman are perennial MVP candidates in the former era.

[Laika]

 

Nope. To follow up on this, Scott Mitchell did a podcast appearance today and around the 17:30 mark he said Soler signing is imminent and wouldn't be surprised if he signs today.

 

Seems like a matter of when, not if, for Soler to the Blue Jays.

 

Also for anyone who prefers JDM or Turner over Soler, just know that Ross Atkins will NEVER choose an FA who projects for 0.7 (Turner) or 0.5 (JDM) fWAR over 1.9 fWAR (Soler). No one should be surprised that Soler is the preferred target here.

 

He doesn't say Toronto is signing him, just that he expects him to sign soon

 

I dunno

[Jays24]

He doesn't say Toronto is signing him, just that he expects him to sign soon

 

I dunno

 

He mentioned yesterday that's Soler to the Jays is very real so its just natural to make rhe connection here. But until it's official, none this matters much to me.

[BCZ]

With the latest changes, here's the latest summary on the Blue jays 2023/2024 offseason:

[deanmike]

According to BNS and Arden Zwelling on their recent At the Letters pod, their understanding is the Blue Jays likely only have around 10-12M left to spend based on Shapiro's comments regarding 2024 budget being similar to 2023.

 

Relevant context, based on their discussion earlier in the pod about Vlad's arb case, they seem to think the Jays are fine with it going to a hearing because

1) Apparently they aren't incentivized to do a Bo-type arb avoidance deal with him, and

2) It's pretty obvious Vlad is going to win his case so the Jays probably aren't worried it could be a relationship-damaging hearing (this idiot's arb ask was 500k lower than what Fangraphs projected he would make, of course he's gonna win).

 

Guess what guys? Everyone s***ing on me for thinking I knew how much they had left to spend were right, and I was wrong...

 

I WAS BEING TOO GENEROUS AND THEY HAVE EVEN LESS THAN I THOUGHT LMFAOOOOOO

 

Some of the s***** offseason ideas on here were more unrealistic than even I imagined lol

[wamco]

Soler is going to be more than 12 I’d think so I’m not in agreement with them.