ST GDT March 22nd. Orioles vs Jays 1pm

[JaysAllMighty]

 

 

Looks like our regular lineup!

[Virgil_Hiltz]

If Berrios cant show something against this lineup.....................................

[wilko]

Bemboom!

[gruber92]

Berrios just struck out the side. Two seamer and change looking pretty good.

[The_DH]

First inning not bad. 3 K's. According to Buck: just have to work on his fastball location. That seems to be the case.

[JaysAllMighty]

Booooooooooooooooooooooooooo Home Run!

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by JaysAllMighty

[JaysAllMighty]

Just NO to Vladdy stealing.... NO NO NO

[The_DH]

that was out by a mile. Not a good attempt.

[JaysAllMighty]

That was a dp

[Spanky99]

Nice play Chapman.

[The_DH]

Nice play Chapman.

 

Plays like that are fantastic to watch.

[JaysAllMighty]

Nice play Chapman.

 

It would be nice to extend him but I don't think it's going to happen

[Spanky99]

Damn, nice turn, Vladito.

[JaysAllMighty]

Varshoooooooooooooooooooooooo Home Run!

 

[Carlos Danger]

The Var Show!

[Spanky99]

That looked really deep! 401'

[JaysAllMighty]

Espinal is the better 2nd. baseman

[John_Havok]

Espinal is the better 2nd. baseman

 

Espinal is probably the best defensive IF on the Jays entire roster, yes, even better than Chapman.

[Spanky99]

Nice work out of Berrios today, lots of whiffs, he did get hit hard though.

[John_Havok]

Varsho stung that one too, too bad it was right at the CF.

[JaysAllMighty]

Swanson wearing The Terminator's number. Hope he's just as good.

[Grant77]

Espinal is probably the best defensive IF on the Jays entire roster, yes, even better than Chapman.

 

I'll take Chapman every day and twice on Sunday. The guy is a platinum glove calibre fielder and has lost very little, if anything.

[John_Havok]

I'll take Chapman every day and twice on Sunday. The guy is a platinum glove calibre fielder and has lost very little, if anything.

 

Yeah, and certainly dont mean to say that Chappy isn't great. I just think Espy is probably his equal if not better, problem is... Espy doesn't have enough stick to play everyday.

 

in the 3 years that Espinal has played, he has been 89th, 90th and 96th percentile as a defender in OAA. That's about as legit as it gets.

 

 

Just sorted the OAA Leaderboard with minimum 250 attempts from 2020-2022 - the Blue Jays have 4 of the top 30 on their team this season.

 

Varsho(16th with 23), Chapman (21st with 19), Kiermaier(26th with 18) and Espinal (30th with 16).

 

The gap is not huge. Chappy had 1169 fielding attempts, Espinal just 745.

 

Merrifield is 40th on the list also.

Edited March 22, 2023 by John_Havok

[Laika]

It is probably one of those scenarios where Chapman is a better 3B due to reps and specific characteristics but Espinal is the better general defender, and the better MIF.

 

So... depends how you frame the question.

 

I can't imagine Espinal being a better 3B defender than Chapman. Hard to see it. I dunno.

[John_Havok]

It is probably one of those scenarios where Chapman is a better 3B due to reps and specific characteristics but Espinal is the better general defender, and the better MIF.

 

So... depends how you frame the question.

 

I can't imagine Espinal being a better 3B defender than Chapman. Hard to see it. I dunno.

 

Here's the numbers:

 

Chappy career at 3b for OAA - 2523 attempts, 74% success rate with 72% estimated success rate. 50 OAA

Espinal career at 3b for OAA - 275 attempts, 75% succes rate with 73% estimated success rate. 4 OAA

 

Sample size differences are large enough that a true comparison isnt really possible, especially without the breakdown of the 1 star to 5 star play ranges that could happen in those extra 2250 attempts

[Orgfiller]

Espinal is probably the best defensive IF on the Jays entire roster, yes, even better than Chapman.

 

It is probably one of those scenarios where Chapman is a better 3B due to reps and specific characteristics but Espinal is the better general defender, and the better MIF.

 

So... depends how you frame the question.

 

I can't imagine Espinal being a better 3B defender than Chapman. Hard to see it. I dunno.

 

Here's the numbers:

 

Chappy career at 3b for OAA - 2523 attempts, 74% success rate with 72% estimated success rate. 50 OAA

Espinal career at 3b for OAA - 275 attempts, 75% succes rate with 73% estimated success rate. 4 OAA

 

Sample size differences are large enough that a true comparison isnt really possible, especially without the breakdown of the 1 star to 5 star play ranges that could happen in those extra 2250 attempts

 

I don't think either of your arguments are poor, but I really don't think it's that close. Chapman's added reps is a huge boost for his case not because he accumulates the advanced stats, but rather because he's able to maintain his elite defensive performance over a longer sample. Chapman has some absolutely nutty defensive numbers from earlier in his career (66 DRS, 31 OAA his first 3 years, with 2017 only being half a season). He also has much better physical tools to go along with the instincts that make both such good defenders.

 

 

Chapman speed + defense + arm strength:

 

Espinal speed + defense + arm strength:

 

I feel like if we can agree both have similar defensive "chops" (instincts, footwork, hands, etc.) then it's safe to say Chapman with his superior physical tools would be just as good a defender at 2B with the ability to play SS quite adequately. We saw him play there plenty on some of the shifts employed and he fared just fine. Espinal's arm strength really pushes down his defense once you move him from 2B to SS/3B that needs longer throws IMO. Chapman's arm would be wasted at 2B so perhaps he would suffer in the opposite fashion.

[John_Havok]

I don't think either of your arguments are poor, but I really don't think it's that close. Chapman's added reps is a huge boost for his case not because he accumulates the advanced stats, but rather because he's able to maintain his elite defensive performance over a longer sample. Chapman has some absolutely nutty defensive numbers from earlier in his career (66 DRS, 31 OAA his first 3 years, with 2017 only being half a season). He also has much better physical tools to go along with the instincts that make both such good defenders.

 

 

Chapman speed + defense + arm strength:

 

Espinal speed + defense + arm strength:

 

I feel like if we can agree both have similar defensive "chops" (instincts, footwork, hands, etc.) then it's safe to say Chapman with his superior physical tools would be just as good a defender at 2B with the ability to play SS quite adequately. We saw him play there plenty on some of the shifts employed and he fared just fine. Espinal's arm strength really pushes down his defense once you move him from 2B to SS/3B that needs longer throws IMO. Chapman's arm would be wasted at 2B so perhaps he would suffer in the opposite fashion.

 

Oddly enough, SS is Espinals best position so far in limited sample size. 4 OAA in not even 100 attempts.

 

Yes yes i know... small sample, s*** could go either way.

 

Maybe when i said "best" defender, i should have clarified or used a different word. Espinal is above average at 3 different IF positions. He plays them all very well and his versatility makes him far more valuable than he is given credit for.

[G-Snarls]

The good news?

 

We have multiple excellent IF defenders

[G-Snarls]

That Varsho HR swing was a beaut

[Orgfiller]

Oddly enough, SS is Espinals best position so far in limited sample size. 4 OAA in not even 100 attempts.

 

Yes yes i know... small sample, s*** could go either way.

 

Maybe when i said "best" defender, i should have clarified or used a different word. Espinal is above average at 3 different IF positions. He plays them all very well and his versatility makes him far more valuable than he is given credit for.

 

I do think the sample size thing is actually quite important, like when Ryan Goins was the second coming of Phil Rizzuto in his first MLB experience, only to settle in as "merely" very good. Wasn't Bo Bichette an average ish defender at some point last season, before becoming a complete liability?

 

Obviously Espinal's versatility is a huge asset, no question he can play the 3 main infield positions quite well. I feel like it was unnecessary and a disservice to him to then go out on a limb and compare him to one of the best IF defenders in baseball, period. I'm sure if Chapman's bat was a lot scrubbier he probably could act as an elite utility guy all over the infield too lol.