Trevor Bauer and Moustakas became FA

[Carlos Danger]

There's no definition of ace out there. I've never considered Bauer to be an ace. A #1 pitcher sure, but not on the ace level of guys like Verlander, Scherzer, Burnes, DeGrom, Cole.

 

There might not be Sabre definition. However, there is a definition of an ACE from inside baseball. It is the pitcher that will stop your losing streak or put you in the best position to win every five days at a higher and more consistent level then the average pitcher and the one most likely to on a staff.

[connorp]

Jim is just being his old crusty d-bag self. Bauer was a no doubt 1A pitcher. If you want to rank the 1As, you can. But he was a 1A at the time of suspension.

 

It’s interesting the Luba chick stuck with him. She was like the next hottest thing in sports and then he destroyed it all

[max silver]

Gausman might be a pumpkin in 2023. Who knows

 

Seems pretty damn unlikely as Gausman has been really good dating back to the 2020 season.

[L54]

Seems pretty damn unlikely as Gausman has been really good dating back to the 2020 season.

 

Ya but who knows? It’s possible

[Deadpool]

Everyone seems to forget that Bauer was very loudly flouting the sticky stuff rule (about the time he got actually good), and we haven't really seen what he'll do now that it's being actually enforced. And it'll be enforced even harder on Bauer simply because he dunked on Manfried the Flaccid.

 

He's now older, and can't use the thing that basically made him a good pitcher...

[Jimcanuck]

Jim is just being his old crusty d-bag self. Bauer was a no doubt 1A pitcher. If you want to rank the 1As, you can. But he was a 1A at the time of suspension.

 

It’s interesting the Luba chick stuck with him. She was like the next hottest thing in sports and then he destroyed it all

 

I don't disagree. A 1A is different from an ace, from my interpretation of the term. An ace calibre pitcher would be a HOF candidate, and Bauer never has been considered a HOF candidate (he's currently at 21.7 WAR - without the suspension he'd be around 25 WAR).

 

My point is he hasn't pitched in MLB since June 2021 and is about to turn 32. When you combine performance uncertainty with the PR hit a team that signs him takes, the business calculus gets a little dicey. Someone likely signs him, though.

[Stangstag]

Everyone seems to forget that Bauer was very loudly flouting the sticky stuff rule (about the time he got actually good), and we haven't really seen what he'll do now that it's being actually enforced. And it'll be enforced even harder on Bauer simply because he dunked on Manfried the Flaccid.

 

He's now older, and can't use the thing that basically made him a good pitcher...

 

True good point

[Stangstag]

Jim is just being his old crusty d-bag self. Bauer was a no doubt 1A pitcher. If you want to rank the 1As, you can. But he was a 1A at the time of suspension.

 

It’s interesting the Luba chick stuck with him. She was like the next hottest thing in sports and then he destroyed it all

 

Wasn’t Puig her other client too?? Lol she knows how to pick em

[Laika]

Everyone seems to forget that Bauer was very loudly flouting the sticky stuff rule (about the time he got actually good), and we haven't really seen what he'll do now that it's being actually enforced. And it'll be enforced even harder on Bauer simply because he dunked on Manfried the Flaccid.

 

He's now older, and can't use the thing that basically made him a good pitcher...

 

pitchers have new stuff at this point

 

https://theathletic.com/3591261/2022/09/14/spin-rates-rise-sticky-stuff/

[Laika]

Everyone will agree that an Ace has to have these characteristics:

 

- skill

- durability / reliability

 

At points in 2018 to 2020 Bauer pitched "like an Ace" but if someone only qualifies within a brief time period then they are really only satisfying one half of the test.

 

So, no Ace for me. Never was one.

 

Would you call late 30s Charlie Morton an Ace?

How about Luis Severino?

Carlos Carrasco?

 

fWAR tells the whole story IMO, for Bauer

 

2012 to 2015 = below average

2016 to 2017 = above average

2018 = pitches "like an Ace" for 175 innings

2019 = above average

2020 = pitches "like an Ace" for 73 innings

2021 = above average

[Brownie19]

pitchers have new stuff at this point

 

https://theathletic.com/3591261/2022/09/14/spin-rates-rise-sticky-stuff/

 

I didn't know this....very interesting. Anyone with a subscription want to post the full story?

[Laika]

I didn't know this....very interesting. Anyone with a subscription want to post the full story?

 

The tldr is that spin rates are back up near where they were before the crackdown

 

Seems like pitchers are using something clear and not very sticky that wipes off easily. Hiding it in their hair etc. very hard for umps to notice even if they touch it because it’s not coloured or sticky to the touch

[L54]

The ace debate is a dumb one, always has been. There are only a handful of guys who are true aces, but everyone understands what you mean when you describe an acquisition as a potential ace - a guy who comes in and makes 30 starts with an era in the low threes.

 

Manoah pitched like an ace last year. Bauer has the potential to pitch like an ace this year.

[Brownie19]

The ace debate is a dumb one, always has been. There are only a handful of guys who are true aces, but everyone understands what you mean when you describe an acquisition as a potential ace - a guy who comes in and makes 30 starts with an era in the low threes.

 

Manoah pitched like an ace last year. Bauer has the potential to pitch like an ace this year.

 

This - I'm firmly with L54 here.

[Brownie19]

The tldr is that spin rates are back up near where they were before the crackdown

 

Seems like pitchers are using something clear and not very sticky that wipes off easily. Hiding it in their hair etc. very hard for umps to notice even if they touch it because it’s not coloured or sticky to the touch

 

Interesting - I'm not surprised. I said it before (back in the bullfrog/spider tack days) that I fully expect teams were working with suppliers to try and develop the 'best' substance they could to increase spin rates and that some teams were probably a lot more advanced than others.

 

That said - I suspect we're also just a lot more advanced in teaching spin rates and learning how to maximize them now that it's so evident how much they improve performance (when utilized correctly).

[The Iceman]

Teams have gotten smarter/tougher on players who have crossed the line with domestic violence.

 

How about if I told you we could sign a 27 year old pitcher who is 100% healthy.

In 315 MLB innings he has 155 saves, 348 Ks, and a .905 WHIP.

In Japan last year he was 4-1 with 10 saves, and a 0.91 ERA and .607 WHIP

 

He goes by the name Roberto and used to pitch for the Jays.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Everyone will agree that an Ace has to have these characteristics:

 

- skill

- durability / reliability

 

At points in 2018 to 2020 Bauer pitched "like an Ace" but if someone only qualifies within a brief time period then they are really only satisfying one half of the test.

 

So, no Ace for me. Never was one.

 

Would you call late 30s Charlie Morton an Ace?

How about Luis Severino?

Carlos Carrasco?

 

fWAR tells the whole story IMO, for Bauer

 

2012 to 2015 = below average

2016 to 2017 = above average

2018 = pitches "like an Ace" for 175 innings

2019 = above average

2020 = pitches "like an Ace" for 73 innings

2021 = above average

 

Yeah, so if a team signs Bauer they could potentially get a pitcher who pitches like an ace for league minimum.

 

I mean if the Jays signed him (they won't) he could potentially lead their rotation in fWAR,. But either way, he's probably going to be very good value for league minimum.

 

That's all I was saying before Jim came along and decided to argue semantics haha

[L54]

Yeah, so if a team signs Bauer they could potentially get a pitcher who pitches like an ace for league minimum.

 

I mean if the Jays signed him (they won't) he could potentially lead their rotation in fWAR,. But either way, he's probably going to be very good value for league minimum.

 

That's all I was saying before Jim came along and decided to argue semantics haha

 

Everyone knew what you meant. Jim just had to let everyone know of his disdain for Bauer.

[L54]

Teams have gotten smarter/tougher on players who have crossed the line with domestic violence.

 

How about if I told you we could sign a 27 year old pitcher who is 100% healthy.

In 315 MLB innings he has 155 saves, 348 Ks, and a .905 WHIP.

In Japan last year he was 4-1 with 10 saves, and a 0.91 ERA and .607 WHIP

 

He goes by the name Roberto and used to pitch for the Jays.

 

Julio Urias still pitches for the team that released Bauer. They really haven't gotten smarter/tougher, it’s just that nobody outside of baseball knows or cares who Urias is.

[Jimcanuck]

Everyone knew what you meant. Jim just had to let everyone know of his disdain for Bauer.

 

Nah, my argument is not semantics but the performance uncertainty (2 years out of MLB, and 32 yrs old). Bauer is a bad human, but I personally would not care if he pitches for the Jays.

[L54]

Nah, my argument is not semantics but the performance uncertainty (2 years out of MLB, and 32 yrs old). Bauer is a bad human, but I personally would not care if he pitches for the Jays.

 

Teams sign guys like Shelby Miller or random KBO guys all the time and pay them millions of dollars. Bauer will cost virtually nothing and he can probably provide you with the throwing he’s done every day since his suspension.

 

If he was 36 you might have a point. But you’re worried about him being 32? Nah

[Jimcanuck]

Teams sign guys like Shelby Miller or random KBO guys all the time and pay them millions of dollars. Bauer will cost virtually nothing and he can probably provide you with the throwing he’s done every day since his suspension.

 

If he was 36 you might have a point. But you’re worried about him being 32? Nah

 

Oh he will be fine. But highly unlikely to the level Eat My Shatkins has suggested.

[Brownie19]

Julio Urias still pitches for the team that released Bauer. They really haven't gotten smarter/tougher, it’s just that nobody outside of baseball knows or cares who Urias is.

 

Nobody cared who Roberto Osuna was either...

[Jimcanuck]

Like all things, transgressions occur to varying degrees.

 

Urias got 20 games. Bauer got 190 or something. One is not like the other.

[wilko]

I refuse to respond to a thread started by dogg. Edited January 9, 2023 by wilko

[Jimcanuck]

I refuse to respond to a threat started by dogg.

 

petekim is the dogg? I thanked his post, trying to encourage him to post more.

[connorp]

Like all things, transgressions occur to varying degrees.

 

Urias got 20 games. Bauer got 190 or something. One is not like the other.

 

We’re spinning our wheels, Jim. He got 190 games because that’s how long it took for a arbiter decision and it was the easiest way to slice the cake

[TheHurl]

I suppose you could put "potential" for like half the pitchers in MLB

 

None of us know how to evaluate his value. MLB teams are business first. Their objective is not to win the WS, but to make money. NY Mets excepted. So maybe he lands there.

 

Open market and his 2 years off was him completing his Mormom mission (for some reason being a Mormon is not a PR issue); What is Trevor Bauer's value on the open market? Questioning his value as a baseball player (especially when most of his training during his suspension has been public), seems a little disingenuous. Much of what you and many others say echos the general public opinions on Bauer (accurate or not), but his baseball ceiling is pretty clear.

[Jimcanuck]

Open market and his 2 years off was him completing his Mormom mission (for some reason being a Mormon is not a PR issue); What is Trevor Bauer's value on the open market? Questioning his value as a baseball player (especially when most of his training during his suspension has been public), seems a little disingenuous. Much of what you and many others say echos the general public opinions on Bauer (accurate or not), but his baseball ceiling is pretty clear.

 

By value, I am referring to his value to the team. His value as a baseball player is clear, but this is offset by the marketing hit a team that signs him takes. None of us here, I don't think, know how to calculate this. What is the impact on the existing and potential fanbase by signing Bauer?

[L54]

Impossible to quantify.