General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Eat My Shatkins]

Sure would be nice if a dark horse came out of the wood work and lit things up. Palmegiani or Roden for example.

[bones10]

Because it's not really "reasoned criticism"

 

It's wilfull ignorance about the expected positive regressions, and a lot of swimming uphill against the realities of the free agent class

 

 

It's fair enough to say that going from almost signing Ohtani to signing IKF and KK is a huge letdown, and it is, but that's sort of just because the free agency class this offseason was Ohtani and then a bunch of garbage.

 

As far as regression goes... to tread water, Toronto offensively needs to replace like 7 batting runs above average from Chapman and 18 from Belt. So, 25 runs above average.

 

Vladdy alone would add 12 by simply regressing to his 2022 numbers. And his projections are better than that.

Kirk's projections remain close to his 2022 numbers, which would add about 20 runs in the same volume of playing time. We are already in the green here....

 

Varsho projects to improve (+15 runs)

Springer projects to improve (small amount probably).

There is no projected/expected decline from Bo or Jansen.

Even if KK is worse, it's not a huge needle mover. Minus 5 batting runs or whatever.

 

Does Toronto need to desperately give Cody Bellinger 8 years, or assume Yoan Moncada's entire contract, or whatever, to fix the offense???? Probably not unless you just don't believe in Steamer at all.

 

So I just don't know why you guys think you are wise wizards for complaining about them not bringing in a stud on offense, or pointing out that they don't have 10 viable SP options. Can't really make a time machine to address to latter and personally I don't want them to force the issue and do anything stupid to try to fix what may not be broke offensively.

 

Being said, I am sure they are still trying to add 1-2 pieces with pop from the FA pile and working the phones for a big trade.

 

This is all true but it still sucks, the team was pretty unwatchable in terms of offense last year and there is a significant possibility that they either end up the same or slightly worse and that doesn't sound fun at all. Having said that, the free agency class truly is bleak and you cant beat them up to much for not making big splashes now, Bellinger is big time scary and Chapman was a zero with the bat 90% of the season last year anyway.

[max silver]

That's probably because their wRC+'s were 114 and 112, which was 4th and 5th in all of MLB, combined with better results with RISP? Maybe you're right - BsR doesn't make any difference? If that makes you feel good - then great. I think historically, you'll find that teams with the 7th highest wRC+ typically finish top 10 in runs scored. I think if you simulated last year 100 times, the 746 runs they scored would be right near the bottom in terms of actual results.

 

The Jays poor baserunning was certainly an issue in 2023 but it's far from being a primary issue behind lack of run scoring. The 2022 team still scored the 4th most runs in MLB with a 25th ranked baserunning value of -10.5 BsR. The 2023 team was a little bit worse on the bases at 27th place/-12.4 BsR. Lack of extra base hits with runners on base and poor situation hitting were far more pressing issues in need of correcting.

[Brownie19]

Brownie I never said it doesn’t make a difference but you’re the one projecting rounding bases better leading to a top 10 offense

 

All I'm suggesting is that by making some strategical improvements on the bases, it will help us score more runs and that teams that run the bases well can score more runs than their hitting abilities (wRC+) suggest they should. This seems like something we may need to score/win more in 2024 if we don't end up adding a bit bat or 2 to help the offense. A ton of our players posted career low (or near career low) BsR stats last year. Outside of the catchers and Vlad, there shouldn't really be any terrible base runners on this team. I was wondering whether with the right adjustments, if that's an area we can improve without many big changes in player personnel. Perhaps a different philosophy and a new 3rd base coach may help this year. Better base running, combined with a middle of the pack RISP results this year could push us back in the Top 5-10 teams in runs scored - even if we just add Joc Pederson and call it an offseason.

 

Perhaps I need to articulate my thoughts more clearly.

[Laika]

This is all true but it still sucks, the team was pretty unwatchable in terms of offense last year and there is a significant possibility that they either end up the same or slightly worse and that doesn't sound fun at all. Having said that, the free agency class truly is bleak and you cant beat them up to much for not making big splashes now, Bellinger is big time scary and Chapman was a zero with the bat 90% of the season last year anyway.

 

Yeah they were horrible to watch last year. Just.... gross.

 

For the most part we have to just pray to the Steamer gods right now.

[MikeM3]

Because it's not really "reasoned criticism"

 

It's wilfull ignorance about the expected positive regressions, and a lot of swimming uphill against the realities of the free agent class

 

 

It's fair enough to say that going from almost signing Ohtani to signing IKF and KK is a huge letdown, and it is, but that's sort of just because the free agency class this offseason was Ohtani and then a bunch of garbage.

 

As far as regression goes... to tread water, Toronto offensively needs to replace like 7 batting runs above average from Chapman and 18 from Belt. So, 25 runs above average.

 

Vladdy alone would add 12 by simply regressing to his 2022 numbers. And his projections are better than that.

Kirk's projections remain close to his 2022 numbers, which would add about 20 runs in the same volume of playing time. We are already in the green here....

 

Varsho projects to improve (+15 runs)

Springer projects to improve (small amount probably).

There is no projected/expected decline from Bo or Jansen.

Even if KK is worse, it's not a huge needle mover. Minus 5 batting runs or whatever.

 

Does Toronto need to desperately give Cody Bellinger 8 years, or assume Yoan Moncada's entire contract, or whatever, to fix the offense???? Probably not unless you just don't believe in Steamer at all.

 

So I just don't know why you guys think you are wise wizards for complaining about them not bringing in a stud on offense, or pointing out that they don't have 10 viable SP options. Can't really make a time machine to address to latter and personally I don't want them to force the issue and do anything stupid to try to fix what may not be broke offensively.

 

Being said, I am sure they are still trying to add 1-2 pieces with pop from the FA pile and working the phones for a big trade.

 

Getting bounce backs is great. And I actually think most of them WILL bounce back.

 

But you have to factor SP health luck as well. It's reasonable to assume runs lost on that side.

 

And this is all in the context of a team that fell short regardless. So we were going into the offseason needing tangible improvements to a team with multiple players either in the decline phase or close to UFA.

 

I would have liked to raise the ceiling of the team but we didn't do that at all. It's nice if we get bounce backs but will that even be good enough?

 

Like I said, a move like Giolito is a potential windfall that I think we need. Is it likely he gets to 5 wins? No but it's possible. I don't think we have time to tread water with this roster. Is 160 innings of bounce back Severino a ceiling raiser? Yes.

 

Those would all be moves that I understand. Low years, high volatility but high impact.

 

This tread water stuff is probably just not enough IMO

[BatFlip]

This is all true but it still sucks, the team was pretty unwatchable in terms of offense last year and there is a significant possibility that they either end up the same or slightly worse and that doesn't sound fun at all. Having said that, the free agency class truly is bleak and you cant beat them up to much for not making big splashes now, Bellinger is big time scary and Chapman was a zero with the bat 90% of the season last year anyway.

 

Totally agree. It's a tough FA class and the team is low on moveable assets that wouldn't subtract from the current roster.

 

I think it's perfectly reasonable to point to a potential offensive rebound next year as the team is likely due for some positive regression, but you can't count on a bounceback from almost every key player (and I think one or two of Vlad/Kirk/Manoah have a positive rebound). It's just not advisable if you're going for it. They still have to add to this team to make it playoff calibre.

 

I think there has been some fair criticism of the moves the team has made this off-season, but there has been some debbie downer type attitudes fresh off a post-season appearance. It's been rough after the Ohtani letdown, but the offseason isn't over yet.

[BatFlip]

Getting bounce backs is great. And I actually think most of them WILL bounce back.

 

But you have to factor SP health luck as well. It's reasonable to assume runs lost on that side.

 

And this is all in the context of a team that fell short regardless. So we were going into the offseason needing tangible improvements to a team with multiple players either in the decline phase or close to UFA.

 

I would have liked to raise the ceiling of the team but we didn't do that at all. It's nice if we get bounce backs but will that even be good enough?

 

Like I said, a move like Giolito is a potential windfall that I think we need. Is it likely he gets to 5 wins? No but it's possible. I don't think we have time to tread water with this roster. Is 160 innings of bounce back Severino a ceiling raiser? Yes.

 

Those would all be moves that I understand. Low years, high volatility but high impact.

 

This tread water stuff is probably just not enough IMO

 

 

I agree with all of this, I'm just struggling with your earlier statement re: Tiedemann - how have you written him off already? He's a prospect and it's quite possible he goes the route of Pearson, but what makes you so certain he's garbage when he's a consensus top pitching prospect?

[max silver]

Getting bounce backs is great. And I actually think most of them WILL bounce back.

 

But you have to factor SP health luck as well. It's reasonable to assume runs lost on that side.

 

And this is all in the context of a team that fell short regardless. So we were going into the offseason needing tangible improvements to a team with multiple players either in the decline phase or close to UFA.

 

I would have liked to raise the ceiling of the team but we didn't do that at all. It's nice if we get bounce backs but will that even be good enough?

 

Like I said, a move like Giolito is a potential windfall that I think we need. Is it likely he gets to 5 wins? No but it's possible. I don't think we have time to tread water with this roster. Is 160 innings of bounce back Severino a ceiling raiser? Yes.

 

Those would all be moves that I understand. Low years, high volatility but high impact.

 

This tread water stuff is probably just not enough IMO

 

I just don't see the wisdom in expending serious cash to upgrade a strength when the team has so many offensive holes which need to be filled.

[MikeM3]

I agree with all of this, I'm just struggling with your earlier statement re: Tiedemann - how have you written him off already? He's a prospect and it's quite possible he goes the route of Pearson, but what makes you so certain he's garbage when he's a consensus top pitching prospect?

 

He's not garbage. He has nasty stuff. He's a legitimately electric arm. But everything else is a question mark. That's just a fact.

 

Guys don't go from 3.1 IP in AAA to 8 innings overnight.

 

He threw 4 innings twice all of last year man. There's so many things to take from that. Is he airing it out because he knows he's only going 4? Can he even physically go 5? Does his stuff hold? Does he have a deep enough repertoire and on and on.

 

You can't just say oh he's #6. If 7 innings a night Bassitt goes down we just plug in Ricky T.

 

No it's like you plug Ricky for 3 IP then you go to.. Wes Parsons?

[The_DH]

Why is Wes Parsons still on the 40 or even in the system?

[max silver]

Why is Wes Parsons still on the 40 or even in the system?

 

Depth starter with options.

[Spanky99]

I agree with all of this, I'm just struggling with your earlier statement re: Tiedemann - how have you written him off already? He's a prospect and it's quite possible he goes the route of Pearson, but what makes you so certain he's garbage when he's a consensus top pitching prospect?

 

Right man, BA writers think he'd be the top pitching prospect had he not gotten hurt and moving forward. The only red flag is health, that usually goes with the majority of pitchers. Kid's a stud.

[Spanky99]

He's not garbage. He has nasty stuff. He's a legitimately electric arm. But everything else is a question mark. That's just a fact.

 

Guys don't go from 3.1 IP in AAA to 8 innings overnight.

 

He threw 4 innings twice all of last year man. There's so many things to take from that. Is he airing it out because he knows he's only going 4? Can he even physically go 5? Does his stuff hold? Does he have a deep enough repertoire and on and on.

 

You can't just say oh he's #6. If 7 innings a night Bassitt goes down we just plug in Ricky T.

 

No it's like you plug Ricky for 3 IP then you go to.. Wes Parsons?

 

lol

[Spanky99]

Red flags everywhere, please...

 

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

LHP

 

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-L

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:65/Very High.

 

Track Record: Teams likely regret passing on Tiedemann out of Lakewood (Calif.) High in the five-round 2020 draft. In pro ball, the lefthander has quickly developed one of the highest ceilings among pitching prospects. Tiedemann showed progress at Golden West (Calif.) JC in 2021, prompting the Blue Jays to draft him in the third round and sign him for a below-slot $644,800. He debuted with Low-A Dunedin in 2022, showing a jump in velocity and stuff across his arsenal. On the back of his elite stuff and strong performance, he climbed to Double-A that August. Tiedemann entered 2023 spring training with an opportunity to pitch his way to Toronto. He instead was shut down with left shoulder soreness and got a late start to his season. After four dominant but truncated Double-A starts, Tiedemann returned to the injured list with a left biceps sprain on May 5. He did not return to Double-A New Hampshire until Aug. 11. He made seven appearances there and one for Triple-A Buffalo before finishing with four starts in the Arizona Fall League, where he was league pitcher of the year. More critically, Tiedemann exceeded 70 pitches and five innings three times in the AFL, something he had not done since July 1, 2022.

 

Scouting Report: Tiedemann is a tall, strong-bodied lefthander with the build prototypical of workhorse starters. Despite his physical appearance, his health and durability have been major question marks. When healthy, Tiedemann has an outlier combination of velocity, movement and deception, delivering the ball from a low three-quarters slot. His fastball sits 94-97 mph and touches 98 mph. He generates below-average ride but heavy armside run that plays up due to his low slot and ability to hide the ball. While Tiedemann’s best pitch historically has been his changeup, that pitch backed up in 2023 as concerns about the difference in release height and arm slot compared with his fastball became a larger issue. His changeup features heavy tumble and fade as he kills lift and generates a heavy dose of armside run. His slider became his primary secondary in 2023. It’s a low-80s pitch with sweep and ride. Tiedemann shows an uncanny ability to manipulate his slider and land it in the zone. The pitch generated whiffs at a rate of 39% in-zone in 2023 as well as a 49% rate of called-plus-swinging strikes. As the Blue Jays continue to refine Tiedemann’s arsenal it should continue to improve, giving him three plus or better pitches, including one secondary pitch to neutralize hitters of either handedness. Tiedemann’s command can come and go, but it’s reasonable to think a large chunk of the season was impacted by injury.

 

The Future: No one questions that Tiedemann has the tools and attributes to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. It’s only a matter of whether his body will cooperate. A strong season at Triple-A in 2024 will land him in Toronto.

 

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55.

 

This was written a few weeks ago.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Lotta dudes who have played some 3B down in AAA that have swung big bats in the minors at times. Many of them already on the 40 man too. Unless something better materializes it seems the jays are going to try a bunch of them out and hope one catches lightning in a bottle while having IKF around as a stud defensive replacement and fail safe.

 

Barger (40 man)

Clement (40 man)

Orelvis (40 man)

Lantigua

Palmegiani

 

There is also Jiminez on the 40 man listed as a SS/2B

[glory]

Four days before Moreno was traded last year, Atkins said he was comfortable heading into the season with 3 catchers. In other words, I wouldn’t take anything he said here at face value.

[BigCecil]

Red flags everywhere, please...

 

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

LHP

 

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-L

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:65/Very High.

 

Track Record: Teams likely regret passing on Tiedemann out of Lakewood (Calif.) High in the five-round 2020 draft. In pro ball, the lefthander has quickly developed one of the highest ceilings among pitching prospects. Tiedemann showed progress at Golden West (Calif.) JC in 2021, prompting the Blue Jays to draft him in the third round and sign him for a below-slot $644,800. He debuted with Low-A Dunedin in 2022, showing a jump in velocity and stuff across his arsenal. On the back of his elite stuff and strong performance, he climbed to Double-A that August. Tiedemann entered 2023 spring training with an opportunity to pitch his way to Toronto. He instead was shut down with left shoulder soreness and got a late start to his season. After four dominant but truncated Double-A starts, Tiedemann returned to the injured list with a left biceps sprain on May 5. He did not return to Double-A New Hampshire until Aug. 11. He made seven appearances there and one for Triple-A Buffalo before finishing with four starts in the Arizona Fall League, where he was league pitcher of the year. More critically, Tiedemann exceeded 70 pitches and five innings three times in the AFL, something he had not done since July 1, 2022.

 

Scouting Report: Tiedemann is a tall, strong-bodied lefthander with the build prototypical of workhorse starters. Despite his physical appearance, his health and durability have been major question marks. When healthy, Tiedemann has an outlier combination of velocity, movement and deception, delivering the ball from a low three-quarters slot. His fastball sits 94-97 mph and touches 98 mph. He generates below-average ride but heavy armside run that plays up due to his low slot and ability to hide the ball. While Tiedemann’s best pitch historically has been his changeup, that pitch backed up in 2023 as concerns about the difference in release height and arm slot compared with his fastball became a larger issue. His changeup features heavy tumble and fade as he kills lift and generates a heavy dose of armside run. His slider became his primary secondary in 2023. It’s a low-80s pitch with sweep and ride. Tiedemann shows an uncanny ability to manipulate his slider and land it in the zone. The pitch generated whiffs at a rate of 39% in-zone in 2023 as well as a 49% rate of called-plus-swinging strikes. As the Blue Jays continue to refine Tiedemann’s arsenal it should continue to improve, giving him three plus or better pitches, including one secondary pitch to neutralize hitters of either handedness. Tiedemann’s command can come and go, but it’s reasonable to think a large chunk of the season was impacted by injury.

 

The Future: No one questions that Tiedemann has the tools and attributes to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. It’s only a matter of whether his body will cooperate. A strong season at Triple-A in 2024 will land him in Toronto.

 

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55.

 

This was written a few weeks ago.

 

Good report. Flags on health and durability offset some by the AFL outings. The stuff isn't in question.

 

I'm not surprised, according to Sorrow, they would move him for a 4-5 WIN player, 3-4 years of control. Unfortunately, they are unicorns.

[Eat My Shatkins]

 

I'm not surprised, according to Sorrow, they would move him for a 4-5 WIN player, 3-4 years of control. Unfortunately, they are unicorns.

 

Hmm, so an Isaac Parades type player then.

[deanmike]

Good report. Flags on health and durability offset some by the AFL outings. The stuff isn't in question.

 

I'm not surprised, according to Sorrow, they would move him for a 4-5 WIN player, 3-4 years of control. Unfortunately, they are unicorns.

 

I would have to guess minimum 4 fWAR players with minimum 3 years of control is a pretty small list. Maybe someone could post a list?

[Spanky99]

Why, after the end of season and AFL pitcher of the year leads me to believe this can't be right? His red flag have been injuries, kind of always has.

 

Tiedemann pitched 5 innings in 3 of his 4 starts in the AFL and was named the pitcher of the year, not bad.

 

I've only heard health and durability questions, his command was do likely because of injury is what BA mentions. Ceiling is top of the rotation, I'm not worried, especially after that AFL showing. All spects have risks, meh...

 

Good report. Flags on health and durability offset some by the AFL outings. The stuff isn't in question.

 

I'm not surprised, according to Sorrow, they would move him for a 4-5 WIN player, 3-4 years of control. Unfortunately, they are unicorns.

 

I've banged on those drums already, he's going to get past this past season and shove for years... Hahaha!

[Laika]

I would have to guess minimum 4 fWAR players with minimum 3 years of control is a pretty small list. Maybe someone could post a list?

 

I don't think there are ANY who would be realistically available

 

Luis Robert the closest but does not project for 4 WAR. Does have 5 WAR upside though.

[Spanky99]

I would have to guess minimum 4 fWAR players with minimum 3 years of control is a pretty small list. Maybe someone could post a list?

 

It'll be small, and even smaller when you take the probabilities of team B even trading the player.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Isaac Parades has 4 years control left, had 4.3 fWAR last year, projects for 3.6 fWAR this year.

 

Pretty close to what they are talking about, and happens to play 3B for the cheap ass Rays lol

 

They'd take Tiedemann and turn him into a legit ace for sure

[Stangstag]

I just don't see the wisdom in expending serious cash to upgrade a strength when the team has so many offensive holes which need to be filled.

 

How do we have “so many” offensive holes??

 

Pretty much just LF/DH role and 3B are the current holes. 2B will be covered by some combination of Biggio/Schneider/Espinal. CF is covered. Other positions are obviously covered by guys under contract.

 

2 holes isn’t much. The LF/DH spot can be filled pretty easily with someone like Pederson, Teoscar, Soler, etc.

 

3B is the main concern IMO

[Stangstag]

Four days before Moreno was traded last year, Atkins said he was comfortable heading into the season with 3 catchers. In other words, I wouldn’t take anything he said here at face value.

 

True lol

[Frenchsoup]

I like sending Tidemann in a package to Tampa for Parades then backfill with Ryu or some really good sp.

[max silver]

Isaac Parades has 4 years control left, had 4.3 fWAR last year, projects for 3.6 fWAR this year.

 

Pretty close to what they are talking about, and happens to play 3B for the cheap ass Rays lol

 

They'd take Tiedemann and turn him into a legit ace for sure

 

Paredes produced a .314 xwOBA last season. He produced 31 home runs vs the 24 expected home runs based on quality of contact. I'd sure as hell not offer Tiedemann for a player that relies on wall scraper home runs to produce the bulk of his offensive value.

[Sorrow]

I would have to guess minimum 4 fWAR players with minimum 3 years of control is a pretty small list. Maybe someone could post a list?

 

Toronto uses their own valuation in place of WAR it is more given to me in a context I’d be able to attach to data that I have understanding of.

 

Tiedeman would obviously headline a package but who knows how Toronto internally evaluates certain players. I don’t have the math. It’s just more so they won’t trade him for a rental at this time and if they are moving him it’s going to be for a really good player.

[L54]

Red flags everywhere, please...

 

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

LHP

 

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-L

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:65/Very High.

 

Track Record: Teams likely regret passing on Tiedemann out of Lakewood (Calif.) High in the five-round 2020 draft. In pro ball, the lefthander has quickly developed one of the highest ceilings among pitching prospects. Tiedemann showed progress at Golden West (Calif.) JC in 2021, prompting the Blue Jays to draft him in the third round and sign him for a below-slot $644,800. He debuted with Low-A Dunedin in 2022, showing a jump in velocity and stuff across his arsenal. On the back of his elite stuff and strong performance, he climbed to Double-A that August. Tiedemann entered 2023 spring training with an opportunity to pitch his way to Toronto. He instead was shut down with left shoulder soreness and got a late start to his season. After four dominant but truncated Double-A starts, Tiedemann returned to the injured list with a left biceps sprain on May 5. He did not return to Double-A New Hampshire until Aug. 11. He made seven appearances there and one for Triple-A Buffalo before finishing with four starts in the Arizona Fall League, where he was league pitcher of the year. More critically, Tiedemann exceeded 70 pitches and five innings three times in the AFL, something he had not done since July 1, 2022.

 

Scouting Report: Tiedemann is a tall, strong-bodied lefthander with the build prototypical of workhorse starters. Despite his physical appearance, his health and durability have been major question marks. When healthy, Tiedemann has an outlier combination of velocity, movement and deception, delivering the ball from a low three-quarters slot. His fastball sits 94-97 mph and touches 98 mph. He generates below-average ride but heavy armside run that plays up due to his low slot and ability to hide the ball. While Tiedemann’s best pitch historically has been his changeup, that pitch backed up in 2023 as concerns about the difference in release height and arm slot compared with his fastball became a larger issue. His changeup features heavy tumble and fade as he kills lift and generates a heavy dose of armside run. His slider became his primary secondary in 2023. It’s a low-80s pitch with sweep and ride. Tiedemann shows an uncanny ability to manipulate his slider and land it in the zone. The pitch generated whiffs at a rate of 39% in-zone in 2023 as well as a 49% rate of called-plus-swinging strikes. As the Blue Jays continue to refine Tiedemann’s arsenal it should continue to improve, giving him three plus or better pitches, including one secondary pitch to neutralize hitters of either handedness. Tiedemann’s command can come and go, but it’s reasonable to think a large chunk of the season was impacted by injury.

 

The Future: No one questions that Tiedemann has the tools and attributes to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. It’s only a matter of whether his body will cooperate. A strong season at Triple-A in 2024 will land him in Toronto.

 

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55.

 

This was written a few weeks ago.

 

Now do Nate Pearson’s