General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Eat My Shatkins]

Looking at Profar on fangraphs, he's really got this good year/bad year thing going on, and last year was a bad year.

 

Might be a decent training camp invite on MiLB deal? -2.0 fWAR last year, probably not getting an MLB deal?

[Stangstag]

Getting backed into a corner and forced to gamble 200M on a player with major red flags because he's all that's available is exactly what you don't want to do.

 

I agree, but their jobs are on the line. What else are they gonna do?

[Stangstag]

2021 - one of the worst players in baseball

2022 - one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball (WAR saved by defense and baserunning)

2023 - .331 xwOBA vs .370 wOBA; no real improvement to barrel and hard hit rates vs 2022 and 2021. actually the worst hard hit rate of his career.

 

 

I think he has succeeded at saving his career, he's just not a star anymore. He is more of a 2-3 WAR player. He will probably hit .257/.321/.450 with decent defense and BsR for a few years.

 

That's an $80M player, not a $150M or $200M player...

 

... I'd rather just sign ALMOST ANYBODY who can play the outfield. Gurriel, Soler, Bader, Teoscar.... plug the hole with a geezer like Pham, Brantley.

 

Like, what if you can get Teoscar for $50M? That is so much better, risk/reward.

 

I’d take Teo for 50m in a heartbeat

[max silver]

2021 - one of the worst players in baseball

2022 - one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball (WAR saved by defense and baserunning)

2023 - .331 xwOBA vs .370 wOBA; no real improvement to barrel and hard hit rates vs 2022 and 2021. actually the worst hard hit rate of his career.

 

 

I think he has succeeded at saving his career, he's just not a star anymore. He is more of a 2-3 WAR player. He will probably hit .257/.321/.450 with decent defense and BsR for a few years.

 

That's an $80M player, not a $150M or $200M player...

 

... I'd rather just sign ALMOST ANYBODY who can play the outfield. Gurriel, Soler, Bader, Teoscar.... plug the hole with a geezer like Pham, Brantley.

 

Like, what if you can get Teoscar for $50M? That is so much better, risk/reward.

 

I've poured over his previous seasons as well. His recent season Statcast numbers most directly resemble his 2020 season and would most suggest a 110 wRC+ or thereabouts. He underwent such a seismic shift in his overall offensive approach that I'm not going to place a ton of emphasis on his previous seasons where he struggled as I simply don't think that represents what to reasonably expect from him moving forward.

 

Much like Vlad shows that expected stats/exit velocity aren't the be all end all given how dramatically he underperformed his expected stats, Bellinger might be a guy who breaks the model on the other end as a lower exit velocity guy who dramatically overperformed the expected stats. He traded exit velocity for making more contact, and this seemed to have led to a career high in sweet spot percentage which allowed him to park a ton of balls in the seats despite the lower overall exit velocity numbers. He didn't hit a ton of cheap home runs either as when his no-doubter percentage was comparable to his best years earlier in his career.

 

Chris Black recently released an excellent X(Twitter) thread which outlines the overhaul and mechanical changes Bellinger underwent prior to the 2023 season.

 

 

Bellinger started the season hot, experienced a short period of struggles sandwiched around a knee injury, and went on a heater for the final half of his season.

 

Mar 30-May7 136 PA .300/.368/.567 8.8%BB/19.1%K 7HR 148 wRC+ 87.7 EV 15.2% HR/FB .326 BABIP

 

May 8-June 25 55 PA .143/.200/.163 7.3%BB/21.8%K 0HR -7 wRC+ 85.6 EV 0% HR/FB .179 BABIP

 

June 27-Sept. 30 .333/.375/.564 6.6%BB/13.4%K 19 HR 150 wRC+ 88.2 EV 15.4% HR/FB .337 BABIP

 

Bellinger had two extended hot streaks where he produced 150 wRC+ values with reasonable BABIP levels and home rates on his fly balls. I don't think it's fair or reasonable to simply point to the struggles of his previous seasons and make a grand declaration that he's most likely a 2-3 win player moving forward. In his season ending hot streak he basically stopped striking out and parked a ton of balls in the seats when he squared up the baseball. I'll agree that there's a lot of risk in the contract the guy is likely to receive, but there's a pretty decent chance that the team handing out this deal is going to be rewarded with a really good player who offers premium defence and a well above average bat as well.

[Stangstag]

Some smart team is going to sign Hunter Renfroe or Adam Duvall for like 1/8 and get a 2-3 win season. Some other team is going to sign Cody Bellinger for like 8/200 and get a 2-3 win season.

 

There's also no reason why we can't be the team to give Austin Meadows a chance to rebound.

 

Duvall for LF is intriguing

[Eat My Shatkins]

Gimme:

 

Brantley 1 x 10

Martinez 1 x 12

Urshela 1 x 8

Montas 1 x 8

Hicks 3 x 9

[Stangstag]

Gimme:

 

Brantley 1 x 10

Martinez 1 x 12

Urshela 1 x 8

Montas 1 x 8

Hicks 3 x 9

 

I wouldn’t sign Brantley AND Martinez, but the rest of the deals i’d love.

 

Hicks will get way more IMO, closer to 50 million

[Brownie19]

Gimme:

 

Brantley 1 x 10

Martinez 1 x 12

Urshela 1 x 8

Montas 1 x 8

Hicks 3 x 9

 

It kind of feels like this is the route to go now. Casuals will be furious though because (they're stupid and) it's not Ohtani and Soto.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It kind of feels like this is the route to go now. Casuals will be furious though because (they're stupid and) it's not Ohtani and Soto.

 

Yeah, the general fan base would flip out for sure lol

[Frenchsoup]

Pretty embarassing offseason so far, these guys jobs should be on the line....

[Jimcanuck]

I've poured over his previous seasons as well. His recent season Statcast numbers most directly resemble his 2020 season and would most suggest a 110 wRC+ or thereabouts. He underwent such a seismic shift in his overall offensive approach that I'm not going to place a ton of emphasis on his previous seasons where he struggled as I simply don't think that represents what to reasonably expect from him moving forward.

 

Much like Vlad shows that expected stats/exit velocity aren't the be all end all given how dramatically he underperformed his expected stats, Bellinger might be a guy who breaks the model on the other end as a lower exit velocity guy who dramatically overperformed the expected stats. He traded exit velocity for making more contact, and this seemed to have led to a career high in sweet spot percentage which allowed him to park a ton of balls in the seats despite the lower overall exit velocity numbers. He didn't hit a ton of cheap home runs either as when his no-doubter percentage was comparable to his best years earlier in his career.

 

Chris Black recently released an excellent X(Twitter) thread which outlines the overhaul and mechanical changes Bellinger underwent prior to the 2023 season.

 

 

Bellinger started the season hot, experienced a short period of struggles sandwiched around a knee injury, and went on a heater for the final half of his season.

 

Mar 30-May7 136 PA .300/.368/.567 8.8%BB/19.1%K 7HR 148 wRC+ 87.7 EV 15.2% HR/FB .326 BABIP

 

May 8-June 25 55 PA .143/.200/.163 7.3%BB/21.8%K 0HR -7 wRC+ 85.6 EV 0% HR/FB .179 BABIP

 

June 27-Sept. 30 .333/.375/.564 6.6%BB/13.4%K 19 HR 150 wRC+ 88.2 EV 15.4% HR/FB .337 BABIP

 

Bellinger had two extended hot streaks where he produced 150 wRC+ values with reasonable BABIP levels and home rates on his fly balls. I don't think it's fair or reasonable to simply point to the struggles of his previous seasons and make a grand declaration that he's most likely a 2-3 win player moving forward. In his season ending hot streak he basically stopped striking out and parked a ton of balls in the seats when he squared up the baseball. I'll agree that there's a lot of risk in the contract the guy is likely to receive, but there's a pretty decent chance that the team handing out this deal is going to be rewarded with a really good player who offers premium defence and a well above average bat as well.

 

Bellinger played hurt during May and June 2023, with a .179 BABIP

 

His 2020 through 2022 BABIPS were .245, .196, .255

 

2023 the BABIP was up to .319

 

The result of a change in approach? The result of improved health? Probably a mix of both. There was an article posted here some time ago, the writer suggested Bellinger's struggles were due to swing changes to accommodate his health/physical condition. In 2023 he may have found a swing/approach that works.

 

Going forward it is not unreasonable to anticipate a WAR floor/ceiling of 2 and 4, with the 2020 to 2022 seasons being health related career anomalies.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Pretty embarassing offseason so far, these guys jobs should be on the line....

 

WTF? They've been in on every big name out there so far.

 

You can lead a horse to water, you can't make the f***er drink.

[Jimcanuck]

Pretty embarassing offseason so far, these guys jobs should be on the line....

 

Shatkins has come through every offseason. Also, it's December.

[BTS]

Still not sure why we'd think the change in approach would cause him to outperform his xwOBA by 40 points. He didn't change in the direction of players who usually beat x stats (become more of a dead pull fly ball power hitter).

[Jays24]

Yeah, the general fan base would flip out for sure lol

 

As I represent the general fanbase, I'll speak of their behalf to say that offseason would not be good. No one wants Martinez AND Brantley since either of them in the field is a disaster.

 

Replace Brantley/Martinez with Bellinger (assuming a decent contract) and that'd be a good offseason.

[Jays24]

Shatkins has come through every offseason. Also, it's December.

 

The only issue is that the obvious glaring holes on the team that don't get addressed in the offseason also don't get addressed at the trade deadline. Those same glaring issues have been the main reason we keep falling short whether it be the bullpen, defense, hitting, etc. No team will be perfect but you cant let your weakness be THAT bad.

[max silver]

Still not sure why we'd think the change in approach would cause him to outperform his xwOBA by 40 points. He didn't change in the direction of players who usually beat x stats (become more of a dead pull fly ball power hitter).

 

It's a really weird season that makes it hard to know what to expect out of him in the future. His xWOBACON only improved a relatively small amount compared to his previous 2 bad seasons, but he nearly cut his strikeout rate in half so he benefitted by putting the ball in play much more. At the same time he also cut his popup rate by a decent amount reducing amount, reducing the amount of nearly guaranteed outs for the opposition.

[Eat My Shatkins]

As I represent the general fanbase, I'll speak of their behalf to say that offseason would not be good. No one wants Martinez AND Brantley since either of them in the field is a disaster.

 

Replace Brantley/Martinez with Bellinger (assuming a decent contract) and that'd be a good offseason.

 

What if Bellinger sucks? Would it still be a good off season?

 

I'm sure you'd be one of the first to be looking to hang Atkins for signing him to a $200 million contract if he ends up as a 2-3 WAR player going forward.

[Frenchsoup]

WTF? They've been in on every big name out there so far.

 

You can lead a horse to water, you can't make the f***er drink.

 

Pretty weak Jung Hoo Lee attempt

[Frenchsoup]

Shatkins has come through every offseason. Also, it's December.

 

I'm not saying it's over but they missed out on Jung. Not upset about Ohtani at all.

[Jays24]

What if Bellinger sucks? Would it still be a good off season?

 

I'm sure you'd be one of the first to be looking to hang Atkins for signing him to a $200 million contract if he ends up as a 2-3 WAR player going forward.

 

I never said we need to overpay Bellinger so if he goes elsewhere for 200M+ then whatever. I'm not holding not getting Ohtani against Shatkins either.

 

In the end, I will judge the offseason by who we get and on what contract. I was just listing the calibre of players we need.

 

And sadly we might need to overpay financially because we don't have a good enough farm system to trade for every need. Let's see how things go...

[Orgfiller]

Gimme:

 

Brantley 1 x 10

Martinez 1 x 12

Urshela 1 x 8

Montas 1 x 8

Hicks 3 x 9

 

I don't think Urshela coming off major injury is any better than a collection of our league min guys. Like the Montas idea, ambivalent on Brantley (old and oft-injured), and I think Hicks clears 3/27 with ease from some other team, he's got some of the best stuff in baseball and it finally translated into strikeout success. Teams will pay for that. JDM has some major red flags in his profile, I'd probably take him at 1/12 but I think with his pedigree he might beat that and I don't really want to be the team to do it with it adding yet another RHH bat to a lineup that badly wants lefties.

[max silver]

What if Bellinger sucks? Would it still be a good off season?

 

I'm sure you'd be one of the first to be looking to hang Atkins for signing him to a $200 million contract if he ends up as a 2-3 WAR player going forward.

 

I just read a report that Bellinger is seeking a 10 year $250 million contract. That certainly has landmine potential written all over it but I have a really hard time seeing the actual offers approaching anywhere close to that in reality given the question marks over the repeatability of his 2023 numbers.

[BTS]

I just read a report that Bellinger is seeking a 10 year $250 million contract. That certainly has landmine potential written all over it but I have a really hard time seeing the actual offers approaching anywhere close to that in reality given the question marks over the repeatability of his 2023 numbers.

 

Could get crazy for the same reason everyone here kind of wants him even though nobody seems to love the idea: he’s the only FA hitter left who seems to offer the potential for 4-5 win season. It’s a bidding war waiting to happen.

[Frenchsoup]

Winker has potential and will cost 2 percent of what Belli would.

[Jimcanuck]

I just read a report that Bellinger is seeking a 10 year $250 million contract. That certainly has landmine potential written all over it but I have a really hard time seeing the actual offers approaching anywhere close to that in reality given the question marks over the repeatability of his 2023 numbers.

 

Defer $100M and it's good

[Jimcanuck]

Winker has potential and will cost 2 percent of what Belli would.

 

Winker to a MiLB and invite to spring training, sure

 

Or maybe not, given that he is a Grade A prick

[Jays24]

Defer $100M and it's good

 

Honestly it's still not lol. His track record is all over the place so his contract should reflect that. We paid 150M for Springer who had an actual proven track record even though he hasn't lived up to that. I can still rest knowing it was a smart move.

[Frenchsoup]

Bellis a good ball player, cf'er and a good 1b. I'm in.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Honestly it's still not lol. His track record is all over the place so his contract should reflect that. We paid 150M for Springer who had an actual proven track record even though he hasn't lived up to that. I can still rest knowing it was a smart move.

 

Springer had a steadier track record than Bellinger up to free agency, but counter point Bellinger is 3 years younger than George was and also has an MVP under his belt.

 

24.5 fWAR for Springer up to free agency, in 7 season.

21.6 fWAR for Bellinger up to free agency, in 7 seasons.