General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[John_Havok]

Would rather have Soto than Lee

 

Talent-wise, sure, it's not close.

[John_Havok]

To the Yanks- Juan Soto

To the Jays- Michael King - Kyle Higiashioka- Jake Cronenworth- Fernando Tatis

To the Padres- Alejandro Kirk- Bo Bichette- Alek Manoah- Nate Pearson- Santiago Espinal- Brandon Barriera

 

A couple more prospects from the Jay's that they don't like and maybe 1 from the Yanks. Lots of money involved....

 

the Yankee's and Padres make out like bandits in that scenario. I dont mind the idea of a 3 way deal but it likely wouldn't look anything like that

[Olerud363]

the Yankee's and Padres make out like bandits in that scenario. I dont mind the idea of a 3 way deal but it likely wouldn't look anything like that

 

Is Cronenworth signed long term? Amazingly as mostly a 1b hitting .229 .312 .380 with 10 homers and negative defense he tied Vlad with 1 fWAR. lol.

[Olerud363]

Is Cronenworth signed long term? Amazingly as mostly a 1b hitting .229 .312 .380 with 10 homers and negative defense he tied Vlad with 1 fWAR. lol.

 

 

The reason is Cronenworth had only mildly negative defense (compared to Vlad's titanic at the bottom of the sea bad defense) and OK baserunning. Shows a 1b men hitting .280 .340 .420 with good defense and baserunning does work in terms of the math. That type of player is kind of rare because if they are good at defense they usually play somewhere else. But Howritz could work out with 12 homers, if he hit well otherwise, played good 1b defense and wasn't a disaster on the basepaths.

[John_Havok]

Is Cronenworth signed long term? Amazingly as mostly a 1b hitting .229 .312 .380 with 10 homers and negative defense he tied Vlad with 1 fWAR. lol.

 

He is signed through 2030, but is 30 next season and really doesn't have a whole lot of upside. He's likely a complete dud going forward.

[L54]

Talent-wise, sure, it's not close.

 

I’d rather have one year of Soto than sign Lee

[John_Havok]

I’d rather have one year of Soto than sign Lee

 

Knowing that it might cripple the Jays team 2025 forward? I'm not saying it WOULD do that, just that the chances are definitely higher.

[L54]

The more I think about it, the more I think a Soto extension might be on the table. They probably had plans on giving 300M contracts to Vlad and Bo, but that's not looking like it's going to happen. So why not pivot to a guy who's trending towards 1st ballot HoF territory who you can lock up at 25?

 

1000%

 

Vlad and Bo don’t wanna stay? Okay, let’s bring in Soto and take a run with all three of them and then try and allocate the money ear marked for Bo and Vlad to Soto

[L54]

Knowing that it might cripple the Jays team 2025 forward? I'm not saying it WOULD do that, just that the chances are definitely higher.

 

I don’t think a Soto trade cripples the franchise and they need high probability impact talent

[glory]

1000%

 

Vlad and Bo don’t wanna stay? Okay, let’s bring in Soto and take a run with all three of them and then try and allocate the money ear marked for Bo and Vlad to Soto

 

I think what helps this theory is that Soto isn’t Kawhi. Prior to the trade, Kawhi made it known he wanted to play in LA. Didn’t even hint that he’d stay in Toronto. Soto is a Boras guy who is looking to get paid. I don’t think he cares about location. Not sure there is a dollar amount that would make him forgo testing free agency (at least a reasonable one) but the Jays just have to give him the best deal and he’d stay. They won’t have to bend over and do tricks like they are likely doing to get Ohtani now.

[L54]

Exactly. Bring him on board, pitch him for an entire year and then pay the man. The odds of signing him go up dramatically if he just played in your organization for an entire season vs having to sell him on the vision

[John_Havok]

I don’t think a Soto trade cripples the franchise and they need high probability impact talent

 

Understand that in the scenario i presented, the Jays had already signed Ohtani to something north of 10 years 500 million.

[BigCecil]

Jeff Blair is the worst. I don’t believe for a second the Jays are trying to get rid of Springer, not after 1 down year. He’s also one of the only “vetrin” guys in the lineup right now

 

I totally think they would move Springer for the right deal. All about roster mgm, risk of 3/75, Aging curve and IL history.

[John_Havok]

I totally think they would move Springer for the right deal. All about roster mgm, risk of 3/75, Aging curve and IL history.

 

Well yeah, they'd move any player in "the right deal." A contract like Springer's though, they knew when they signed it there was risk attached not just with the inevitable player decline and injury possibility outcomes, but that the contract would likely be untradeable at at certain point due to those risks. Whether or not that point has arrived is debateable. It's not like every other team can't see the exact same risks.

 

The only way George is traded is if Toronto eats a big chunk of money and trades to a lower spending team. Teams that could actually afford his contract wouldn't be in the market for him.

 

Blair is just pulling stuff out of his ass to get clicks.

[Laika]

c'mon George

 

one more all star season

 

then you can suck

[John_Havok]

c'mon George

 

one more all star season

 

then you can suck

 

But a real all star season, not some ******** Espinal all star season

[BigCecil]

Well yeah, they'd move any player in "the right deal." A contract like Springer's though, they knew when they signed it there was risk attached not just with the inevitable player decline and injury possibility outcomes, but that the contract would likely be untradeable at at certain point due to those risks. Whether or not that point has arrived is debateable. It's not like every other team can't see the exact same risks.

 

The only way George is traded is if Toronto eats a big chunk of money and trades to a lower spending team. Teams that could actually afford his contract wouldn't be in the market for him.

 

Blair is just pulling stuff out of his ass to get clicks.

 

Literally 50% of his remaining deal being "inevitable player decline and injury possibility outcomes" is a horribly bad signing. Point being some team (s) might still see some value, including us. At this point I don't know if our FO truly does.

 

I do agree there is a good chance that Blair might be talking out his ass, but if they could find a fit and eat some of the $, it makes some sense. Wont be easy. Then again I thought the same about Wells and Rios deals in the past for the Jays.

[Marew]

Age of consent in Canada is 16. In 16 of the states it’s 17 or 18. People always talk about taxes. But for young latinos that could be a selling point for Canada.

[Brownie19]

The more I think about it, the more I think a Soto extension might be on the table. They probably had plans on giving 300M contracts to Vlad and Bo, but that's not looking like it's going to happen. So why not pivot to a guy who's trending towards 1st ballot HoF territory who you can lock up at 25?

 

Dare I say it, but I think there's a good argument that trading for Soto and signing him to a 10 year $350M deal may be better than signing Ohtani to a 10 year $600M deal. I f***ing LOVE Ohtani, but the age difference is huge. Soto is just so legit. To have him from like age 25 to 35 would be unreal. Offensively, he's equal to Ohtani IMO. He just falls short on the bases - and well, he can't pitch. He also sucks defensively, but if Ohtani is pitching, then he's a DH so he doesn't help there either. I'm not 100% convinced teams are going to get a ton of value out of Ohtani's arm moving forward. I think there's legit concern that he may not remain an elite pitcher or stay healthy enough to give you say 700+ innings over a 10 year deal.

[RobinThicc]

Dare I say it, but I think there's a good argument that trading for Soto and signing him to a 10 year $350M deal may be better than signing Ohtani to a 10 year $600M deal. I f***ing LOVE Ohtani, but the age difference is huge. Soto is just so legit. To have him from like age 25 to 35 would be unreal. Offensively, he's equal to Ohtani IMO. He just falls short on the bases - and well, he can't pitch. He also sucks defensively, but if Ohtani is pitching, then he's a DH so he doesn't help there either. I'm not 100% convinced teams are going to get a ton of value out of Ohtani's arm moving forward. I think there's legit concern that he may not remain an elite pitcher or stay healthy enough to give you say 700+ innings over a 10 year deal.

 

Soto is not signing for 350. Try 500.

[Laika]

He turned down $400M so getting him to pass on FA and sign for $350M seems like a pipe dream.

[John_Havok]

Literally 50% of his deal being "inevitable player decline and injury possibility outcomes" is a horribly bad signing. Point being some team (s) might still see some value, including us. At this point I don't know if our FO truly does.

 

I do agree there is a good chance that Blair might be talking out his ass, but if they could find a fit and eat some of the $, it makes some sense. Wont be easy. Then again I thought the same about Wells and Rios deals in the past for the Jays.

 

Tony Reagins and Kenny Williams. That's about all the rebuttal that should be needed there. Can't count on the usual idiot GMs in the league this time around either since Preller is in cash-shedding mode.

[Marew]

Of course signing Soto would be better than ohtani. But he will want 40m a year also. You will be getting mostly good years though so when we rebuild we will have veteran Soto to whip the kids into shape.

[Brownie19]

He turned down $400M so getting him to pass on FA and sign for $350M seems like a pipe dream.

 

OK - so I may be a big low. Says it's 10 years $450M. I think there's a lot of value in getting Soto from age 25-35 instead of getting Ohtani from age 31-40

[BTS]

OK - so I may be a big low. Says it's 10 years $450M. I think there's a lot of value in getting Soto from age 25-35 instead of getting Ohtani from age 31-40

 

I think whoever signs him will be able to spread it out over longer than 10 years. Like 14/500 or something. If he ages like Miggy or Pujols it's 8-9 elite seasons. But he might just keep hitting until he's 40, like Ortiz, Big Hurt, Thome etc...

[Laika]

I think whoever signs him will be able to spread it out over longer than 10 years. Like 14/500 or something. If he ages like Miggy or Pujols it's 8-9 elite seasons. But he might just keep hitting until he's 40, like Ortiz, Big Hurt, Thome etc...

 

yeah it might be 13/450

 

the new trend is these 13 year deals, just take the same total $$$ and pay it over 13 instead of 10 years

[Dick_Pole]

OK - so I may be a big low. Says it's 10 years $450M. I think there's a lot of value in getting Soto from age 25-35 instead of getting Ohtani from age 31-40

 

Baseball wise it may make more sense. Rogers corporate wise, it's Ohtani or bust imo. However, if the team was to sign Ohtani and trade for Soto, which led to significant on field success, increase in revenue and franchise value, I can then see a concerted effort to keep Soto from leaving.

[Jimcanuck]

I think whoever signs him will be able to spread it out over longer than 10 years. Like 14/500 or something. If he ages like Miggy or Pujols it's 8-9 elite seasons. But he might just keep hitting until he's 40, like Ortiz, Big Hurt, Thome etc...

 

I can see up to 10 elite seasons, but Soto does look on track to be a rather heavy dude in his 30's. A DH like Ortiz would be best case scenario.

[wilko]

I can see up to 10 elite seasons, but Soto does look on track to be a rather heavy dude in his 30's. A DH like Ortiz would be best case scenario.

 

What's the worst case Ontario?

[Jimcanuck]

What's the worst case Ontario?

 

I meant in the latter half of the deal Ortiz would be best case scenario. Worst case is the back issues that has led to games lost in 2022 and 2023 worsen and he is hobbled by the time he is 30.