General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[L54]

Whit his 3 WAR self this year. Career 104 wRC+. Speed is a big part of his game (87th percentile) and age comes for us all.

 

Given we were able to backfill the roster with 1/9M year deals for Belt & KK(both worked out) what makes sense for Whit/us at 35?

 

Hard to say. He has been integral to this years team but man he could turn into a pumpkin quickly based on his skills like you mentioned.

 

Does 2/24 get it done? I kinda doubt it but I wouldn’t want to commit much more than that.

[jaysblue]

IIRC the Jays took a run at Freeman two off seasons ago, and also Boegarts last off season.

 

Looking at Vladdy's struggles and the upcoming holes in the roster next season, those would have been great signings.

 

Freeman is probably one of the most underrated stars in baseball. He's just one of the best well-rounded hitters in the game. Can contend for a batting title every season, gets on-base, can hit for power, can steal around 15 bases. Seems like he gets better with age, like a rare or exclusive bottle of wine haha. That contract he signed 6 years, $162 million through 2027 was a bargain.

[John_Havok]

I am surprised at Belt's fWAR being 1.6

 

I was thinking it would be under 1

 

His bWAR is almost the same though; 1.4

 

 

 

I kind of think he has been horrendous and it is just working out from pure luck. Like, there are massive holes in his swing and his K rate is astronomical.

 

He is a surprisingly competent baserunner for a slow 35 year old though and his defense in limited action at 1B has been positive.

 

Belt has always been good defensively, but yes, he’s definitely a bit of a mirage this season offensively if you dig at the numbers, his walk rate is the only thing keeping him propped up.

[Olerud363]

I am surprised at Belt's fWAR being 1.6

 

I was thinking it would be under 1

 

His bWAR is almost the same though; 1.4

 

 

 

I kind of think he has been horrendous and it is just working out from pure luck. Like, there are massive holes in his swing and his K rate is astronomical.

 

He is a surprisingly competent baserunner for a slow 35 year old though and his defense in limited action at 1B has been positive.

 

He is taking the most pitches in baseball I think

 

Like VGJ adjusts and with his elite hand eye and 80 hit tool he makes millisecond adjustment and hits the crappiest pitches for grounders, but if Belt guesses wrong he swings at his guess and misses completely and lives to see another pitch (if it's not strike 3).

[Laika]

He is taking the most pitches in baseball I think

 

Like VGJ adjusts and with his elite hand eye and 80 hit tool he makes millisecond adjustment and hits the crappiest pitches for grounders, but if Belt guesses wrong he swings at his guess and misses completely and lives to see another pitch (if it's not strike 3).

 

The best thing a hitter can do in baseball is just not swing

 

Belt is proving this

 

He's a science experiment

 

Vlad with Belt's approach is a .300/.400/.600 hitter

[metafour]

I kind of think he has been horrendous and it is just working out from pure luck. Like, there are massive holes in his swing and his K rate is astronomical.

 

He's in the 97th percentile in walk-rate and 98th percentile in chase-rate. He is in the 81st percentile in barrell percentage. What this means is that he generally only swings at balls in the zone, and he hits them really well - which is why his BABIP is so high (although there is luck at play this season). Yes he strikes out a lot, but he also draws walks at an elite rate.

 

It can't be "pure luck" because he's done this his whole career. He is clearly declined, but this guy put up 3.4 fWAR in under 100 games just two seasons ago with a 157 wRC+.

[Laika]

He's in the 97th percentile in walk-rate and 98th percentile in chase-rate. He is in the 81st percentile in barrell percentage. What this means is that he generally only swings at balls in the zone, and he hits them really well - which is why his BABIP is so high (although there is luck at play this season). Yes he strikes out a lot, but he also draws walks at an elite rate.

 

It can't be "pure luck" because he's done this his whole career. He is clearly declined, but this guy put up 3.4 fWAR in under 100 games just two seasons ago with a 157 wRC+.

 

He still has his core skills

 

But the physical talent has eroded to a point where everything is probably teetering on the brink

 

Yes, "pure luck" was the wrong phrase

 

More like... at any given point the player might be replacement level or worse

[metafour]

He still has his core skills

 

But the physical talent has eroded to a point where everything is probably teetering on the brink

 

Yes, "pure luck" was the wrong phrase

 

More like... at any given point the player might be replacement level or worse

 

No doubt, I'm not suggesting signing him long-term. But what Belt does well he does really well, and it's easy to see why he's been such a successful hitter over his career.

 

To me, Merrifield is the bigger anomaly. Nothing about his profile is 'impressive'. His hidden talent is basically making good contact but with such below-average exit velocity that it loops over the infield but falls into play well before the outfield can get to it. For most other players, the balls he hits would simply go to the out-field for outs. There are a few other guys like this (eg: Steven Kwan) but it's hard to imagine Merrifield being able to keep this up at his age.

[Laika]

No doubt, I'm not suggesting signing him long-term. But what Belt does well he does really well, and it's easy to see why he's been such a successful hitter over his career.

 

To me, Merrifield is the bigger anomaly. Nothing about his profile is 'impressive'. His hidden talent is basically making good contact but with such below-average exit velocity that it loops over the infield but falls into play well before the outfield can get to it. For most other players, the balls he hits would simply go to the out-field for outs. There are a few other guys like this (eg: Steven Kwan) but it's hard to imagine Merrifield being able to keep this up at his age.

 

I have talked to people in baseball who have said things like "line drive rate is the hardest thing to project"

 

Whit is funny. Same player at 34 that he was in his 20s. In almost every single way.

[Jonn]

Whit just has a knack for putting the bat on the ball. Those guy’s are valuable because it rarely slumps. Especially when he provides speed on bases and Defensive versatility.

 

His approach just works. Although nothing that he does really stands out.

[Stangstag]

The best thing a hitter can do in baseball is just not swing

 

Belt is proving this

 

He's a science experiment

 

Vlad with Belt's approach is a .300/.400/.600 hitter

 

I wonder how much Vlad’s numbers would jump if he just didn’t ever swing until 2 strikes

[metafour]

Whit just has a knack for putting the bat on the ball. Those guy’s are valuable because it rarely slumps.

 

But it's really not this.

 

Did you know that Espinal makes more contact than Merrifield?

 

O-Contact

Merrifield: 72.9%

Espinal: 75.4%

 

Z-Contact

Merrifield: 88.6%

Espinal: 90.2%

 

Overall Contact

Merrifield: 82.4%

Espinal: 84.8%

 

We're talking very miniscule differences in swing path or pitch selection which determine hit vs. out. Espinal and Merrifield have very similar exit velocities. The main difference on the surface is that Espinal hits the ball on the ground more (particularly this season), but even last year when Espinal ran a 23% line-drive rate (Merrifield is at 24.7% this season) it only amounted to a 99 wRC+.

 

Keep in mind that Merrifield was at 105, 90, and 88 wRC+ the three seasons prior to this one, so you can see that his BABIP-driven success is definitely not something that is consistent. He's clearly in a season wherein seemingly everything he hits seems to be falling into play.

[Daniel Labude]

He is taking the most pitches in baseball I think

 

Like VGJ adjusts and with his elite hand eye and 80 hit tool he makes millisecond adjustment and hits the crappiest pitches for grounders, but if Belt guesses wrong he swings at his guess and misses completely and lives to see another pitch (if it's not strike 3).

 

This is happening 100%. Vlad being more selective could see a huge boost

[BigCecil]

Freeman is probably one of the most underrated stars in baseball. He's just one of the best well-rounded hitters in the game. Can contend for a batting title every season, gets on-base, can hit for power, can steal around 15 bases. Seems like he gets better with age, like a rare or exclusive bottle of wine haha. That contract he signed 6 years, $162 million through 2027 was a bargain.

 

Freddie is going to the HOF and a few years ago I never envisioned that. 56 career WAR already mostly at 1B. He is just a great hitter.

[mphenhef]

Completely agree. Everything seems to be going his way this year and he's just savy enough to get enough production out of the bat, despite the decline he's in. No way I want him back next year.

 

It's amazing what being able to draw a walk does for your WAR.

[mphenhef]

Whit his 3 WAR self this year. Career 104 wRC+. Speed is a big part of his game (87th percentile) and age comes for us all.

 

Given we were able to backfill the roster with 1/9M year deals for Belt & KK(both worked out) what makes sense for Whit/us at 35?

 

I'm not sure they don't pick up his option if Whit doesn't decline it.

[Olerud363]

Freddie is going to the HOF and a few years ago I never envisioned that. 56 career WAR already mostly at 1B. He is just a great hitter.

 

Vlad and Freeman both started at 20 and will end being very similar through age 24, same counting stats, close WAR (Freeman ahead a bit), same games played

 

but different stories. As a minor league hitter Freeman was good but not legendary, cup of coffee at 20, full year in at 21 where had a Vlad 'bad' year, average hitting with bad base running and defense making him near replacement. Then he started just getting better every year, walk rate, base running, defense, average all got better.

 

Vlad is all over the place alternating years of legendary performance with replacement level. Defense was bad and got worse. The legend year at 22, but then basically returning to his age 20 season.

 

After this year, age 24 they should show up as very close on those matching systems.

[jaysblue]

Vlad and Freeman both started at 20 and will end being very similar through age 24, same counting stats, close WAR (Freeman ahead a bit), same games played

 

but different stories. As a minor league hitter Freeman was good but not legendary, cup of coffee at 20, full year in at 21 where had a Vlad 'bad' year, average hitting with bad base running and defense making him near replacement. Then he started just getting better every year, walk rate, base running, defense, average all got better.

 

Vlad is all over the place alternating years of legendary performance with replacement level. Defense was bad and got worse. The legend year at 22, but then basically returning to his age 20 season.

 

After this year, age 24 they should show up as very close on those matching systems.

 

Also, one is in better physical condition than the other.

 

Vladdy looks like he could go the Prince Fielder route, Freeman looks like he could still be an elite hitter into his late 30s.

[Terminator]

I am surprised at Belt's fWAR being 1.6

 

I was thinking it would be under 1

 

His bWAR is almost the same though; 1.4

 

 

 

I kind of think he has been horrendous and it is just working out from pure luck. Like, there are massive holes in his swing and his K rate is astronomical.

 

He is a surprisingly competent baserunner for a slow 35 year old though and his defense in limited action at 1B has been positive.

 

Yeah he seems to be running on fumes to me and that .388 BABIP (career high) seems to be doing him wonders.

 

But his vetrin presents really helps him play up his value. Or maybe he's just always been a smart player.

 

Compare him to Vlad who is slightly faster but because he's always playing hero ball he's a garbage baserunner, maybe the worst I've ever seen from a slow guy running into outs perspective. Belt on the other hand seemingly keeps himself in shape (imagine Vlad's sprint speed at age 35 at this rate) and knows his limits. Same thing with defense and probably even pitch selection/walk rate.

[Terminator]

I wonder how much Vlad’s numbers would jump if he just didn’t ever swing until 2 strikes

 

He should to adopt two different plate approaches. Wait for his pitch and try to pull it into the seats until it gets to two strikes.

 

Then he can try and hammer low and away if he wants and one of his hard ground balls actually isn't that bad in a two strike count.

[BTS]

It is absolutely wild that Vlad is slugging 0.439.

[Terminator]

It is absolutely wild that Vlad is slugging 0.439.

 

It really is crazy. He has turned in to Eric Hosmer (career .276/.335/.427).

[Laika]

It really is crazy. He has turned in to Eric Hosmer (career .276/.335/.427).

 

this ruined my day

 

thanks

[Laika]

Vladimir Hosmer

[wamco]

2/20 with an option for 12…something in that neighborhood. I get that on the surface he looks like a guy that should be worth more than that given his 2023 season, but at 35+ you’re certainly not expecting him to repeat this kind of season. If he came out next season and hit at 95-100 wRC+, would that be all that shocking? No. Make every effort to keep him of course, but don’t get caught up in this season being the expectation going forward

 

What’s the highest u go? If 2/25 is what it takes, do you do that for example? I do.

[Krylian]

It is absolutely wild that Vlad is slugging 0.439.

 

Vlad had been meh for a damn long time now. Maybe he just is what he is. '21 was an aberration.

[John_Havok]

What’s the highest u go? If 2/25 is what it takes, do you do that for example? I do.

 

I wouldn't be thrilled, but yeah 2/25 would be within non-vomitous parameters

[Terminator]

At this point if Vlad wants to sign an extension he's going to have to take a paycut on the AAV of his arb years.

[Spanky99]

At this point if Vlad wants to sign an extension he's going to have to take a paycut on the AAV of his arb years.

 

That's why he won't sign one,

[jaysblue]

Vlad had been meh for a damn long time now. Maybe he just is what he is. '21 was an aberration.

 

In 2021, remember the Jays played in minor league parks for 2/3 of their season. Someone made that point when talking about Vlad last year, forget who.