General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Jays333]

I think there's a misconception about how trades work in general. It's not like GMs are all on the phone at the same time trying to one-up each other for trade candidates. Each GM will essentially have an idea of their top offers, start with something lower than that, offer that, and if declined, they may circle back later if the player is still available and offer something slightly higher if they really want the player. But they'll always have an idea of their absolute top offer and not go beyond that even if it's demanded by the other team.

 

Unless of course that GM is AJ Preller.

 

So it doesn't change the fact that the Jays dont have the farm system to acquire any huge name players. The teams dealing those huge names are going to deal with the teams that can offer the biggest and best packages.

[Grant77]

So it doesn't change the fact that the Jays dont have the farm system to acquire any huge name players. The teams dealing those huge names are going to deal with the teams that can offer the biggest and best packages.

 

I have serious doubts that we're chasing any of the huge names.

[Daniel Labude]

So with Romano leaving hurt...Pearson set to be closer if needed I guess

[Laika]

Positional Adjustment Truthers: please post your anti WAR arguments in the new thread, lol

[connorp]

Positional Adjustment Truthers: please post your anti WAR arguments in the new thread, lol

 

You’re promoting Dogg-like thread starters now? May as well promote the Bali time shares popping up

[Laika]

You’re promoting Dogg-like thread starters now? May as well promote the Bali time shares popping up

 

Just put your best foot forward and see what happens

 

It's the internet, nobody can hurt you

 

If you're right then Tom Tango might thank you

 

Let's see what you've got, brave and smart guy!

[Jays333]

Nice our closer has been injured in a game that means absolutely nothing during a playoff push lool.

[connorp]

Just put your best foot forward and see what happens

 

It's the internet, nobody can hurt you

 

If you're right then Tom Tango might thank you

 

Let's see what you've got, brave and smart guy!

 

It has to be in the heat of the moment for me. My attention span is short and I get bored with things quickly

[Laika]

It has to be in the heat of the moment for me. My attention span is short and I get bored with things quickly

 

Ah, a dick tuck

[Captain_Obvious]

Merrifield taking "represent the Blue Jays" too literally by making an out on the bases.

[Captain_Obvious]

Vlad seems to think he is the main character.

[jaysblue]

Goldschmidt definitely wouldn't be the guy primarily manning the DH position given he's a great defender at first. It would likely be harder convincing Vlad that he should be spending a very big chunk of his playing time at DH. That's certainty not the position on the team with the biggest need for an upgrade given how there are already two key 1B/Dh types on the team in Vlad and Belt.

 

Yeah position wise, tough to fit Goldy in, but his bat would definitely be perfect as the No. 4 hitter and with one year left on his contract which is a plus. Logistically just won't work given their positions.

[jaysblue]

Grant got banned again? lol

[Omar]

Grant got banned again? lol

 

What happened?

[Omar]

I think there's a misconception about how trades work in general. It's not like GMs are all on the phone at the same time trying to one-up each other for trade candidates. Each GM will essentially have an idea of their top offers, start with something lower than that, offer that, and if declined, they may circle back later if the player is still available and offer something slightly higher if they really want the player. But they'll always have an idea of their absolute top offer and not go beyond that even if it's demanded by the other team.

Unless of course that GM is AJ Preller.

 

This is almost entirely wrong. GM's are on the phone almost all day. They are often working the lines trying to find out who other teams are interested in, no one want to bel left off the bus, whether a seller or a buyer. Also it isn't just the GM's but front office staff are contacting other teams as well. There is also a deadline rush to evaluate their own prospects with emphasis on who will not pan out; that way the trade doesn't come back to bite them in ass down the line. Most deals have their genesis earlier in the season (even spring training) where they test the waters and are consumated at the deadline. In terms of what the max they will give up, they don't have a top offer in mind until they see what's on the table. If the temperature is right and the players available will put them over the top, any gm could and will sell the farm to acquire a piece.

[Spanky99]

Just put your best foot forward and see what happens

 

It's the internet, nobody can hurt you

 

If you're right then Tom Tango might thank you

 

Let's see what you've got, brave and smart guy!

 

lol

[connorp]

Ah, a dick tuck

 

Feels sort of like when you’re forced to interact normally with a character Roger the alien is playing in American Dad.

[wamco]

Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas.

But because that is true, I assumed that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But recently i took a look at them, and they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess.

 

-this is a bill james quote btw, not me

[Laika]

Feels sort of like when you’re forced to interact normally with a character Roger the alien is playing in American Dad.

 

A double dick tuck!

[Laika]

The real Tom Tango has come here and started a thread to answer questions about fielding runs / positional adjustments, and none of the people who are so adamant that the whole field is a scam have come forward to articulate their position.

 

lol

[connorp]

A double dick tuck!

 

Very well. Your transparent goading has been accepted. It’s a day off for me and I’ll humor you in a bit

[Blue Jays Lurker 2023]

RISP.

 

Bichette ( 346ba), Vladdy (333ba) and Merrifield (301 ba) are the only 3 above 300.

 

Then it slides to Springer at 250, Chapman at 209, Varsho at 167 and the rest below that.

 

Varsho at .167 with RISP unbelievable.

 

I can’t even find Kirk.

 

Atkins the so called analytics genius while too busy crunching numbers before his biggest dumbass decision of trading Moreno and Gurriel, completely lost any kind of baseball instincts.

[Brownie19]

RISP.

 

Bichette ( 346ba), Vladdy (333ba) and Merrifield (301 ba) are the only 3 above 300.

 

Then it slides to Springer at 250, Chapman at 209, Varsho at 167 and the rest below that.

 

Varsho at .167 with RISP unbelievable.

 

I can’t even find Kirk.

 

Atkins the so called analytics genius while too busy crunching numbers before his biggest dumbass decision of trading Moreno and Gurriel, completely lost any kind of baseball instincts.

 

It's hilarious you took the time to craft this post up to rip the GM and chose RISP as the metric to base your argument on. This is as bad as Varsho v. high fastballs. Swing and a miss.

[Spanky99]

It's hilarious you took the time to craft this post up to rip the GM and chose RISP as the metric to base your argument on. This is as bad as Varsho v. high fastballs. Swing and a miss.

 

People have to stop quoting this troglodyte, man.

[Dick_Pole]

I didn't read all this s*** so maybe someone brought up something like this already. The prototypical "replacement" 1B/DH type is Daniel Vogelbach or Rowdy Tellez. Now compare the career OPS of Tellez and Vogelbach to Guerrero this year and his 1 WAR or so starts to make sense. He's only about 30-40 points or so above their career totals.

 

Forget about the negative positional adjustment. Just use logic. There are no end to the supply of Tellez or Vogelbach players who can be signed to cheap one year deals or acquired for basically nothing. .750 OPS is the baseline for a first baseman. Meanwhile someone like Espinal can get by with a sub-0.700 career OPS and still plug up a roster spot for 1000 PA...AND look good (this year notwithstanding) compared to some guys who have done that for the Jays over the last decade - Goins, MacDonald, Izturis, etc. because guys like Espinal are in relative short supply compared to guys like Tellez.

 

The positional adjustment is just trying to quantify for that, with years of data to back it up. Fat guys can mash at the plate, but they can't move quick in the field. Therefore they are relegated to relatively few positions on the field. If only super athletic guys can cover SS, but fat guys and super athletic guys can cover 1B, it only makes sense that there will be a relative oversupply of talented hitters at 1B because the subset of human beings who can cover that position is larger.

[wilko]

I didn't read all this s*** so maybe someone brought up something like this already. The prototypical "replacement" 1B/DH type is Daniel Vogelbach or Rowdy Tellez. Now compare the career OPS of Tellez and Vogelbach to Guerrero this year and his 1 WAR or so starts to make sense. He's only about 30-40 points or so above their career totals.

 

Forget about the negative positional adjustment. Just use logic. There are no end to the supply of Tellez or Vogelbach players who can be signed to cheap one year deals or acquired for basically nothing. .750 OPS is the baseline for a first baseman. Meanwhile someone like Espinal can get by with a sub-0.700 career OPS and still plug up a roster spot for 1000 PA...AND look good (this year notwithstanding) compared to some guys who have done that for the Jays over the last decade - Goins, MacDonald, Izturis, etc. because guys like Espinal are in relative short supply compared to guys like Tellez.

 

The positional adjustment is just trying to quantify for that, with years of data to back it up. Fat guys can mash at the plate, but they can't move quick in the field. Therefore they are relegated to relatively few positions on the field. If only super athletic guys can cover SS, but fat guys and super athletic guys can cover 1B, it only makes sense that there will be a relative oversupply of talented hitters at 1B because the subset of human beings who can cover that position is larger.

 

So 1B is fat shaming people?

[John_Havok]

So 1B is fat shaming people?

 

Naw, it's just the desk job of MLB players.

[Laika]

I didn't read all this s*** so maybe someone brought up something like this already. The prototypical "replacement" 1B/DH type is Daniel Vogelbach or Rowdy Tellez. Now compare the career OPS of Tellez and Vogelbach to Guerrero this year and his 1 WAR or so starts to make sense. He's only about 30-40 points or so above their career totals.

 

Forget about the negative positional adjustment. Just use logic. There are no end to the supply of Tellez or Vogelbach players who can be signed to cheap one year deals or acquired for basically nothing. .750 OPS is the baseline for a first baseman. Meanwhile someone like Espinal can get by with a sub-0.700 career OPS and still plug up a roster spot for 1000 PA...AND look good (this year notwithstanding) compared to some guys who have done that for the Jays over the last decade - Goins, MacDonald, Izturis, etc. because guys like Espinal are in relative short supply compared to guys like Tellez.

 

The positional adjustment is just trying to quantify for that, with years of data to back it up. Fat guys can mash at the plate, but they can't move quick in the field. Therefore they are relegated to relatively few positions on the field. If only super athletic guys can cover SS, but fat guys and super athletic guys can cover 1B, it only makes sense that there will be a relative oversupply of talented hitters at 1B because the subset of human beings who can cover that position is larger.

 

It's an economic question.

 

connorp doesn't get it and never will but that's okay because he works in hospitality, and not economics or finance.

 

Hopefully LetTheBallFly works with his hands or is going into nursing or something overly practical.

[connorp]

It's an economic question.

 

connorp doesn't get it and never will but that's okay because he works in hospitality, and not economics or finance.

 

Hopefully LetTheBallFly works with his hands or is going into nursing or something overly practical.

 

It’s not an economic question. I laid it out. There’s not a good response

 

A good 1b is penalized because they stick some bad ones there sometimes

[Laika]

It’s not an economic question. I laid it out. There’s not a good response

 

A good 1b is penalized because they stick some bad ones there sometimes

 

The most important part of this is recognizing that it's an economic question, haha.