General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Terminator]

Nah man.

 

It's got to the point on this board where you have two extremes. One side is 100% pro Blue Jays/Atkins while on the other side you have some trolls who complain nonstop when the Jays are losing which we've always had. Then there is a group of posters who present a middle ground and who are rational, have thoughtful and insightful discussion but when they criticize something about this team or FO, they get attacked like they're trolls or non-stop complainers by the pro Blue Jay side. I spoke with another member on here and he said the same thing.

 

I've never seen the message board this divided ever. Like literally a World War could start based on arguments about the Moreno/Varsho trade which gets brought up everyday haha. Or heck, you can't even comment or say anything positive about the Orioles without being bombarded. It's got to the point where it's not even pleasant anymore.

 

Who are the 100% pro Blue Jays/Atkins posters?

[Olerud363]

Are people saying that praising Baltimore is "not ok"?

 

I don't think so. The full and fair representation of the position would be something like this:

 

Yes, Baltimore has a nice young core breaking into the big leagues right now and an excellent looking farm. Yes, their developmental system seems to be doing very well. However, they have a long track record of being a dogshit organization so maybe we should hold off on the Orioles fellatio for juuuuuust a little bit longer because it's very much within the realm of possibility that they will f*** it up. Prospects will break your heart. A few high profile busts and some failure to spend money properly and they might end up as the same sorry Orioles we know and love in a a couple of years.

 

Their management wasn't trained in Baltimore, they were trained in Houston. Is it fair to evaluate Mike Elias by what different people did for 30 years? Pat Gillick for a while, then a bad decade, than 2012-2016 they had a better record and more playoff appearances than the Jays, then a partly on purpose Tank at the beginning of the Elias era...

 

So what evidence is there that Baltimore has repeatedly screwed up their competitive windows? You'd have to back 15-20 years, which isn't relative now, they succeeded well enough their last winning cycle.

 

And their farm system isn't just 'excellent'. It's bizarrely abnormally good, like almost every hitter in their top 20 putting up video game numbers. And their payroll is in absolutely pristine shape. This isn't Oakland or TBR. They'll be a 2.5 million to 3 million attendance team in their winning run, and probably be able to run a 200 million dollar payroll... at least in the past they've run a top 10 payroll.

 

Perhaps Angelos is in financial trouble, Jesus, he is like 93 or something. Is he even still functional? Alive still I think. I think I heard his kids are arguing over the team. So maybe they are morons, or maybe somehow the team gets sold and new owner raises payroll.

 

Whatever it's probably not going to be an Angelos making any calls about what the money is spent on, it will be Elias.

[BCZ]

Can I say this time isn't good enough without getting attacked?

[Laika]

Their management wasn't trained in Baltimore, they were trained in Houston. Is it fair to evaluate Mike Elias by what different people did for 30 years? Pat Gillick for a while, then a bad decade, than 2012-2016 they had a better record and more playoff appearances than the Jays, then a partly on purpose Tank at the beginning of the Elias era...

 

So what evidence is there that Baltimore has repeatedly screwed up their competitive windows? You'd have to back 15-20 years, which isn't relative now, they succeeded well enough their last winning cycle.

 

And their farm system isn't just 'excellent'. It's bizarrely abnormally good, like almost every hitter in their top 20 putting up video game numbers. And their payroll is in absolutely pristine shape. This isn't Oakland or TBR. They'll be a 2.5 million to 3 million attendance team in their winning run, and probably be able to run a 200 million dollar payroll... at least in the past they've run a top 10 payroll.

 

Perhaps Angelos is in financial trouble, Jesus, he is like 93 or something. Is he even still functional? Alive still I think. I think I heard his kids are arguing over the team. So maybe they are morons, or maybe somehow the team gets sold and new owner raises payroll.

 

Whatever it's probably not going to be an Angelos making any calls about what the money is spent on, it will be Elias.

 

Well there was every reason to believe Baltimore should have broke the bank this past offseason, and they did not. So we have early evidence that they are still going to pinch pennies.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Well there was every reason to believe Baltimore should have broke the bank this past offseason, and they did not. So we have early evidence that they are still going to pinch pennies.

 

Or they didn’t like any of the free agent pitchers enough at the prices they were commanding and thought they were good enough to wait until the all star break to trade for controllable players from their loaded farm 🤔

[Stangstag]

Already posted this in the GDT but I wanna post here too because I was actually very surprised.

 

Vlad's season is eerily similar to 2022 so far

 

April 2023: 149 wRC+ (5 homers)

May 2023: 95 wRC+ (3 homers)

 

April 2022: 148 wRC+ (6 homers)

May 2022: 97 wRC+ (3 homers)

 

Actually kinda remarkable how close it is. Seems like the people that were saying 2022 is more like the real Vlad might be correct

[Ray]

Their management wasn't trained in Baltimore, they were trained in Houston. Is it fair to evaluate Mike Elias by what different people did for 30 years? Pat Gillick for a while, then a bad decade, than 2012-2016 they had a better record and more playoff appearances than the Jays, then a partly on purpose Tank at the beginning of the Elias era...

 

So what evidence is there that Baltimore has repeatedly screwed up their competitive windows? You'd have to back 15-20 years, which isn't relative now, they succeeded well enough their last winning cycle.

 

And their farm system isn't just 'excellent'. It's bizarrely abnormally good, like almost every hitter in their top 20 putting up video game numbers. And their payroll is in absolutely pristine shape. This isn't Oakland or TBR. They'll be a 2.5 million to 3 million attendance team in their winning run, and probably be able to run a 200 million dollar payroll... at least in the past they've run a top 10 payroll.

 

Perhaps Angelos is in financial trouble, Jesus, he is like 93 or something. Is he even still functional? Alive still I think. I think I heard his kids are arguing over the team. So maybe they are morons, or maybe somehow the team gets sold and new owner raises payroll.

 

Whatever it's probably not going to be an Angelos making any calls about what the money is spent on, it will be Elias.

 

Not Mike Elias, no. But it's fair to evaluate ownership, and the O's ownership has a long track record of being absolutely dogshit at decision-making that interferes with baseball operations.

 

First off, the O's owners are the rich persons equivalent of being house poor. They actually need the O's to operate at break-even or be profitable since their net worth is entirely tied up in their stake of the Orioles, so they can't bankroll the team themselves really without taking loans against their equity. The vast majority of owners have billion-dollar net worths + strong income streams independent of their baseball teams (you basically have to in order to own a team this day and age), but the Angelos family income stream IS the Orioles, more or less. The Peter Angelos law-firm isn't exactly thriving in the metropolitan sprawl known as Baltimore.

 

Second, there's also the MASN dispute which could mandate them paying a massive lump-sump to the Nats for right fees and put and insane dent into what they can pay for free agents + extensions.

 

All these things matter when you're cash-strapped and not Steve Cohen. They could easily mess up their competitive window by cheaping out and not going after good free agents, or cutting internal player dev infrastructure or analytics teams etc. They COULD be the Rays and operate on nothing, but let's not assume that after they just started being good due to half a decade worth of straight up tanking. Let's see how long they can keep this going when they're picking at the lower end of the draft with less of a draft budget + maybe no big free agent signings + probably not retaining internal guys like Gunnar Henderson (Boras client) and maybe even Rutschmann.

[John_Havok]

Well there was every reason to believe Baltimore should have broke the bank this past offseason, and they did not. So we have early evidence that they are still going to pinch pennies.

 

I wonder if Stroman is on the block from Chicago, if I was Baltimore i'd certainly be making that phone call.

[Terminator]

And if Elias is good as the O's fanboys think what's to stop him from bolting to a better org when they offer him more money? Cheap owners and a shithole town. There's a number of teams that could pry him away.

[Olerud363]

Or they didn’t like any of the free agent pitchers enough at the prices they were commanding and thought they were good enough to wait until the all star break to trade for controllable players from their loaded farm 🤔

 

Or Saving for Ohtani? I don't know. Glancing over the Orioles ownership situation, it seems Angelos' son is in charge, is not selling the team, and payroll will be raised at the right time... blah, blah, blah... I think Angelos loved to spend and win, maybe the son is more dis-interested, or maybe they are all playing the ultra-long game and will sell this deadline too to set up for a 40 year dynasty...

 

If money was enough to get Ohtani they are well positioned to get him... Payroll room, good young team, fantastic park for him...

 

Though you have to think it's the iconic franchises, Dodgers, Yankees, maybe Red Sox, Mets and Giants that will be best positioned, but you never know. Would he go to Baltimore if they are coming off of a 95 win season with great young core?

[MikeM3]

Nah man.

 

It's got to the point on this board where you have two extremes. One side is 100% pro Blue Jays/Atkins while on the other side you have some trolls who complain nonstop when the Jays are losing which we've always had. Then there is a group of posters who present a middle ground and who are rational, have thoughtful and insightful discussion but when they criticize something about this team or FO, they get attacked like they're trolls or non-stop complainers by the pro Blue Jay side. I spoke with another member on here and he said the same thing.

 

I've never seen the message board this divided ever. Like literally a World War could start based on arguments about the Moreno/Varsho trade which gets brought up everyday haha. Or heck, you can't even comment or say anything positive about the Orioles without being bombarded. It's got to the point where it's not even pleasant anymore.

 

Well we all got sold a bunch of s*** by Atkins and Shapiro about development and sustainability and blah blah. AA is s***. You shouldn't do things that way. We come from CLE, just watch all the pitching we'll have blah blah.

 

So some people are still stuck on that 7 years later and were really excited to have what they thought was a progressive FO. Meanwhile the first pick was Zeuch and we still got DUI Pete Walker. Does anyone really think Pete Walker is keeping up with some of these organizations?

 

Personally I was cautiously optimistic but I was optimistic. I mean they came from CLE right?

 

Well it's been obvious that they're just about bang average and my optimism has waned considerably.

 

And if you keep up with baseball trends you'd see BAL was coming fast and I said this last year. Our process is not up to the level of TB and BAL.

 

Like I'm sorry, neither of those teams would give even 12M to Bassitt. If you give a guy with that stuff 20+M AAV you're just clueless.

[Ray]

And if Elias is good as the O's fanboys think what's to stop him from bolting to a better org when they offer him more money? Cheap owners and a shithole town. There's a number of teams that could pry him away.

 

Elias is actually from the area, and they could probably retain him by promoting him to President of Baseball Ops + giving him a pay bump. But I'm sure smart people like Eve Rosenbaum and Sig Mejdal have aspirations of running their own teams one day. Could easily be major brain drain in that org when they've established success with the O's.

 

Fact of the matter is, the O's financial situation makes them much more prone to boom-bust cycles. Even though their front office is staffed with sharp Astros execs, it's not like the Astro's could sustain their competitive window on farm system production alone. They've been running $200M+ payrolls for a while now. I'm doubtful the O's will.

[Brownie19]

Who is in charge of developing and implementing the development of pitchers throughout the organization? Is that all Atkins? Or does Pete Walker get a say in that from the standpoint that he wants his philosophies to trickle down throughout the organization?

 

It would seem like that could be someone's sole job - Director of Pitching Development who works with the pitching coaches at each level and ensures a consistent message, tracking progress, etc. It seems like a stretch to think the GM could stay on top of that, plus all the other responsibilities. You'd think there could be a similar position for hitting and fielding development as well.

 

Is that a thing?

 

anyone?

[Spanky99]

anyone?

 

Yes, they have both titles.

[Olerud363]

And if Elias is good as the O's fanboys think what's to stop him from bolting to a better org when they offer him more money? Cheap owners and a shithole town. There's a number of teams that could pry him away.

 

If the process that was used to hire him and set up his team is a sound one, than they will be fine just like the Rays.

 

Ownership and CEO level management is super-important there. So who knows. Like, I guess some think the Red Sox are now poorly run, but John Henry, Red Sox owner, has a trading background (as I believe does the Rays owner), and has won 4 World Series with different Baseball Ops leaders. I think back just after he bought the team he consulted Bill James, tried to hire Billy Beane, read every analytics book he could at the time....

 

So yeah... if the Angelos kid is just a disinterested dead beat, who lucked into Elias, who then lucked into all these prospects because of a deep losing cycle, then maybe they won't be all that.

 

Someone else pointed out something about Hicks, that the Orioles critical advanced reconnaissance used proprietary methods to identify that Hicks was going to help them... or some s*** like that. So they are least acting like they have something going on beyond the top 5 draft picks and luck...

[jaysblue]

Well there was every reason to believe Baltimore should have broke the bank this past offseason, and they did not. So we have early evidence that they are still going to pinch pennies.

 

Yeah shocked they didn't spend any big money this offseason especially on rotation help or trade for some. Gibson has actually been decent with a 1.3 WAR so far.

 

Otherwise looking back at some of the FAs:

 

- Nathan Eovaldi (2.7 WAR) - nobody thought he would be this good.

- Michael Wacha (2.0 WAR) - pitching well in San Diego but had many question marks.

- Zach Eflin (1.6 WAR) - Rays got a bargain

- Jacob deGrom (1.4 WAR) - done for this season and most of 2024.

- Chris Bassitt (0.4 WAR) - age, pitching in the NL and signed a big contract with the Jays. Gibson actually has been better so far.

- Carlos Rodon - has yet to throw a pitch in 2023.

 

Not sure if I'm forgetting anyone else. I think Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Corey Kluber, were some other FAs as well. Overall, there really wasn't anyone spectacular other than deGrom and Rodon, though both are on the IL, so actually was smart on their part not to go after them. Nobody could have predicted how good Eovaldi was going to be. Eflin I believe was from the Tampa area which is why he wanted to sign there. They could have signed another vet like Wacha or Bassitt but not sure they would have made a huge impact.

 

They should trade for either Cease or Stroman at the deadline though.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Yeah shocked they didn't spend any big money this offseason especially on rotation help or trade for some. Gibson has actually been decent with a 1.3 WAR so far.

 

Otherwise looking back at some of the FAs:

 

- Nathan Eovaldi (2.7 WAR) - nobody thought he would be this good.

- Michael Wacha (2.0 WAR) - pitching well in San Diego but had many question marks.

- Zach Eflin (1.6 WAR) - Rays got a bargain

- Jacob deGrom (1.4 WAR) - done for this season and most of 2024.

- Chris Bassitt (0.4 WAR) - age, pitching in the NL and signed a big contract with the Jays. Gibson actually has been better so far.

- Carlos Rodon - has yet to throw a pitch in 2023.

 

Not sure if I'm forgetting anyone else. I think Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Corey Kluber, were some other FAs as well. Overall, there really wasn't anyone spectacular other than deGrom and Rodon, though both are on the IL, so actually was smart on their part not to go after them. Nobody could have predicted how good Eovaldi was going to be. Eflin I believe was from the Tampa area which is why he wanted to sign there. They could have signed another vet like Wacha or Bassitt but not sure they would have made a huge impact.

 

They should trade for either Cease or Stroman at the deadline though.

 

Man I don’t wanna watch Stroman shove against us in an Orioles jersey that would just be wrong

[Laika]

anyone?

 

Ross Atkins: Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager

Tony Lacava: Senior Vice President, Player Personnel

Andrew Tinnish: Vice President, International Scouting & Baseball Operations

Jeremy Reesor: Director, Baseball Operations

Joe Sclafani: Director, Player Development

Reed Kienle: Assistant Director, Player Development

Cory Popham: Pitching Coordinator

Frank Herrmann: Pitching Development Coordinator

Will Habib: Coordinator, Player Development & High Performance Operations

Jordan Eaddy: PDC Pitching Lab Analyst

Tyler Dobos: Pitching Resource Coach

Adrian Martin: Complex Pitching Coach

John Babocsi: Player Personnel Analyst

Sam Greene: Pitching Research Analyst

 

^ probably all of these people

[John_Havok]

Ross Atkins: Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager

Tony Lacava: Senior Vice President, Player Personnel

Andrew Tinnish: Vice President, International Scouting & Baseball Operations

Jeremy Reesor: Director, Baseball Operations

Joe Sclafani: Director, Player Development

Reed Kienle: Assistant Director, Player Development

Cory Popham: Pitching Coordinator

Frank Herrmann: Pitching Development Coordinator

Will Habib: Coordinator, Player Development & High Performance Operations

Jordan Eaddy: PDC Pitching Lab Analyst

Tyler Dobos: Pitching Resource Coach

Adrian Martin: Complex Pitching Coach

John Babocsi: Player Personnel Analyst

Sam Greene: Pitching Research Analyst

 

^ probably all of these people

 

Wonder where JFas and Spencer are in that pyramid...

[Olerud363]

Yeah shocked they didn't spend any big money this offseason especially on rotation help or trade for some. Gibson has actually been decent with a 1.3 WAR so far.

 

Otherwise looking back at some of the FAs:

 

- Nathan Eovaldi (2.7 WAR) - nobody thought he would be this good.

- Michael Wacha (2.0 WAR) - pitching well in San Diego but had many question marks.

- Zach Eflin (1.6 WAR) - Rays got a bargain

- Jacob deGrom (1.4 WAR) - done for this season and most of 2024.

- Chris Bassitt (0.4 WAR) - age, pitching in the NL and signed a big contract with the Jays. Gibson actually has been better so far.

- Carlos Rodon - has yet to throw a pitch in 2023.

 

Not sure if I'm forgetting anyone else. I think Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Corey Kluber, were some other FAs as well. Overall, there really wasn't anyone spectacular other than deGrom and Rodon, though both are on the IL, so actually was smart on their part not to go after them. Nobody could have predicted how good Eovaldi was going to be. Eflin I believe was from the Tampa area which is why he wanted to sign there. They could have signed another vet like Wacha or Bassitt but not sure they would have made a huge impact.

 

They should trade for either Cease or Stroman at the deadline though.

 

According to fangraphs Gibson's 4 year WAR was higher than Bassett's with similar innings pitched. Their 2 year WAR was Bassitt winning 6 to 4.8.

 

Their 3 year WAR including 2023 now is a virtual tie. They are 34 (Bassett) and 35 years old. One of them is owed 60 million dollars the other 10?

 

f***. Maybe Elias isn't a genius and just looks at the Fangraphs website... Oh this guy has 5 fWAR last 2 years and this guy 6... and the 5 WAR guy is 50 million dollar cheaper... I'll choose that one.

[jaysblue]

Well we all got sold a bunch of s*** by Atkins and Shapiro about development and sustainability and blah blah. AA is s***. You shouldn't do things that way. We come from CLE, just watch all the pitching we'll have blah blah.

 

So some people are still stuck on that 7 years later and were really excited to have what they thought was a progressive FO. Meanwhile the first pick was Zeuch and we still got DUI Pete Walker. Does anyone really think Pete Walker is keeping up with some of these organizations?

 

Personally I was cautiously optimistic but I was optimistic. I mean they came from CLE right?

 

Well it's been obvious that they're just about bang average and my optimism has waned considerably.

 

And if you keep up with baseball trends you'd see BAL was coming fast and I said this last year. Our process is not up to the level of TB and BAL.

 

Like I'm sorry, neither of those teams would give even 12M to Bassitt. If you give a guy with that stuff 20+M AAV you're just clueless.

 

I think some people for sure bought into what Shapiro and Atkins were saying in 2016 and still are stuck on that. When in reality since then, they haven't had a strong pipeline of players and pitchers who are waiting in the wings like some other teams do. It's not that strong of a farm system. I think Shapiro has done a fantastic job on the business sides of things though. He's really built up the brand of Blue Jays baseball and in-game experience at the Rogers Centre.

 

As well, I think the media over the past two-three years are to blame. If you watch or listen to Rogers Sportsnet, they're extremely biased when it comes to this club. So if you watch the Blue Jays every night or followed their coverage exclusively during the offseason, you were lead to believe this team was easily going to win the AL East and be a World Series contender.

 

We're already in the middle of June and this team so far has been what it is. Inconsistent and a fringe Wild Card contender over a 162 game season. If they get to the Postseason, sure they could get hot and lucky to go on a big run, but they need to get there first.

[jaysblue]

According to fangraphs Gibson's 4 year WAR was higher than Bassett's with similar innings pitched. Their 2 year WAR was Bassitt winning 6 to 4.8.

 

Their 3 year WAR including 2023 now is a virtual tie. They are 34 (Bassett) and 35 years old. One of them is owed 60 million dollars the other 10?

 

f***. Maybe Elias isn't a genius and just looks at the Fangraphs website... Oh this guy has 5 fWAR last 2 years and this guy 6... and the 5 WAR guy is 50 million dollar cheaper... I'll choose that one.

 

Yup I was shocked to see that Gibson had a 1.3 WAR and Bassitt was only at 0.4 WAR. Right now I would prefer Gibson on a 1 year/$10M contract over paying Bassitt 60 million over 3 years.

 

I think Bassitt will be fine and he's a solid arm for this team, but on some contracts under Atkins, they seemed to overbid or overpay on some guys like Ryu, Grichuk, Morales, Roark, and Bassitt. I don't think any other team was going to give Bassitt $20M but could be wrong.

 

But on the other hand, Atkins got Gausman on what is a bargain, Semien, Kiermaier, Belt on good deals. Want to make sure I state that or else pitch forks coming out from the homers on here!

[Laika]

Wonder where JFas and Spencer are in that pyramid...

 

Manager of baseball research

Coordinator of baseball research & development

 

I guess they report to Sanjay Choudhury

[John_Havok]

Manager of baseball research

Coordinator of baseball research & development

 

I guess they report to Sanjay Choudhury

 

Good for them... f***ers.

[Omar]

Who are the 100% pro Blue Jays/Atkins posters?

 

[Spanky99]

Man I don’t wanna watch Stroman shove against us in an Orioles jersey that would just be wrong

 

Hahaha... ditto!

[John_Havok]

Slight update on Manoah and Ryu:

 

He threw a 72 pitch simulated game this past Saturday, throwing 5 up and downs. He started in the lab, then went and threw the sim game.

 

Ryu is facing live hitters in bullpens this week.

 

No update on Green yet.

[Spanky99]

I think some people for sure bought into what Shapiro and Atkins were saying in 2016 and still are stuck on that. When in reality since then, they haven't had a strong pipeline of players and pitchers who are waiting in the wings like some other teams do. It's not that strong of a farm system. I think Shapiro has done a fantastic job on the business sides of things though. He's really built up the brand of Blue Jays baseball and in-game experience at the Rogers Centre.

 

As well, I think the media over the past two-three years are to blame. If you watch or listen to Rogers Sportsnet, they're extremely biased when it comes to this club. So if you watch the Blue Jays every night or followed their coverage exclusively during the offseason, you were lead to believe this team was easily going to win the AL East and be a World Series contender.

 

We're already in the middle of June and this team so far has been what it is. Inconsistent and a fringe Wild Card contender over a 162 game season. If they get to the Postseason, sure they could get hot and lucky to go on a big run, but they need to get there first.

 

So pundits and projections are to be ignored? It's not SN at all.

[Stangstag]

So pundits and projections are to be ignored? It's not SN at all.

 

Yeah the “sportsnet overhypes the team” angle is the dumbest s*** i’ve heard.

 

This team was projected to be a lot better than they’re currently showing. If you watch another station like MLB network most of the shows have also been hyping the Jays, especially last year

[Jimcanuck]

When in reality since then, they haven't had a strong pipeline of players and pitchers who are waiting in the wings like some other teams do. It's not that strong of a farm system.

 

Blue Jays have not sucked for the better part of a decade or regularly traded stars for prospects, like "some other teams".

 

I wish they would take a hybrid Rays approach..... and regularly trade cost controlled players for a prospect haul, even during winning seasons, while operating with 2x the Rays player budget.