General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Terminator]

But they just extended him through 2027.

 

Leave it to the Rockies to turn one of their only assets approaching free agency into a brick with no value.

 

He's an okay player but the total package is a bit borderline. Like, the K-BB numbers are fringe and the power isn't amazing. Not a guy I want to own into his 30s. Metrics do like his 3B defense.

 

He's probably a .230/.300/.400 hitter outside of Coors.

 

The extension would make them more likely to trade him, not less IMO. Arenado got dealt with an extension and Story didn't without one. But like I said they are so irrational that you can't really say if he'll be available or not.

 

And yeah the bat is very average, Steamer thinks it's a wRC+ of 102 this year. But his 3B defense could be elite.

 

IDK what his contract is exactly for the final 4 years of his deal, overall it was 11.7 AAV. The final four years are probably higher bc it was backloaded but it would his age 29-32 seasons is all.

[jaysblue]

The Rockies organization is a clown show.

 

Ryan McMahon at $11.7M is pretty darn good. If he could be a 3-4 WAR player, would be a great trade target during the offseason.

[Terminator]

It's probably a long shot. They trade so little it's probably due to insane prices they put on their own players. So I doubt it'd happen but could be worth looking into.

[G-Snarls]

It's probably a long shot. They trade so little it's probably due to insane prices they put on their own players. So I doubt it'd happen but could be worth looking into.

 

OTOH they paid to "get rid of" Nolan f'n Arenado

 

They're all over the place

[max silver]

No doubt. Id hate to see him leave but even if he ends the season with a wRC+ around 150-160 he's going to have a lot of teams kicking down the door. He wont be getting those SS type of deals, but a 5 year guarantee upwards of 120 million is probably a sure thing. Aside from the hip issue he;s never really been hurt. He runs the bases well, still has above average speed at 30 whilst playing a corner IF position and is money on D. Hell, even if he hits at a 120 wRC+ like he did last season he's a 4 WAR player.

 

I'd be sorely tempted to try and get him to that 5 year 125 million dollar extension now. Problem is he'd be insane not to test free agency. It will likely be his only chance at getting that 200 million dollar payday from some team that doesn't care about his age 36+ years.

 

also,... who the f*** carries a .486 babip after 28 games???? That's so far past insane

 

Marcus Semien received a 7 year $175 million contract from the Rangers. I would expect this would make a good starting point for prospective Chapman bids in free agency.

[jaysblue]

Marcus Semien received a 7 year $175 million contract from the Rangers. I would expect this would make a good starting point for prospective Chapman bids in free agency.

 

Chapman likely gets $200M given how weak the 3B market is.

 

Semien's contract is a great comparable though.

[jaysblue]

Can Kris Bryant still play third base? Wonder if the Rockies would eat a majority left on his contract.

[connorp]

Chapman will likely regress to the mean, even in the contract year. He could go ice cold at any time. Still a solid player but hopefully Jays stay away.

 

With the inability to develop any hitting prospects, not only stars but even Mlb quality, it seems signing both Vlad and Bo is really the only way to compete long term.

[John_Havok]

Chapman will likely regress to the mean, even in the contract year. He could go ice cold at any time. Still a solid player but hopefully Jays stay away.

 

With the inability to develop any hitting prospects, not only stars but even Mlb quality, it seems signing both Vlad and Bo is really the only way to compete long term.

 

Please explain what you mean by Chapman regressing to the mean. I already know what it means, but I need to know what you think it means before I get into it too much

[Omar]

Chapman will likely regress to the mean, even in the contract year. He could go ice cold at any time. Still a solid player but hopefully Jays stay away.

 

With the inability to develop any hitting prospects, not only stars but even Mlb quality, it seems signing both Vlad and Bo is really the only way to compete long term.

 

I agree the Jays should pass but based on his sticker price. He is going to be expensive.

 

Yeah, right now he is playing above his career mean (but it's been five weeks). He may be on his way to a career year. Still wouldn't bite though. Like Semien 2.0

[Terminator]

Can Kris Bryant still play third base? Wonder if the Rockies would eat a majority left on his contract.

 

I don't think he can. They have a glaring hole there with McMahon shifting over to 2B to cover for Rodgers and they still won't play him there.

[G-Snarls]

Chapman likely gets $200M given how weak the 3B market is.

 

Semien's contract is a great comparable though.

 

Plus the Yankees have a glaring need at 3B

 

They'll be all over Chapman and Ohtani

[connorp]

Please explain what you mean by Chapman regressing to the mean. I already know what it means, but I need to know what you think it means before I get into it too much

 

Strikeouts will go up, 117 wRC+. Like you said, you know what it means

[John_Havok]

Strikeouts will go up, 117 wRC+. Like you said, you know what it means

 

K, so you dont really know. i'll just let it go then

[connorp]

K, so you dont really know. i'll just let it go then

 

Listen, he’s a solid player and if he puts up 3ish WAR as his D declines a little, he’ll serve someone well… but Jays will need to find sneaky ways to improve if they’re signing Vlad and Bo with the other stuff on the books

[Krylian]

Listen, he’s a solid player and if he puts up 3ish WAR as his D declines a little, he’ll serve someone well… but Jays will need to find sneaky ways to improve if they’re signing Vlad and Bo with the other stuff on the books

 

They're not signing Vladdy AND Bo.

[John_Havok]

They're not signing Vladdy AND Bo.

 

I’d rather hitch my wagon to Bo at this point tbh. It’s Bo you have to rein him in…with Vlad …it’s not that he doesn’t want to succeed, but there’s just something about him that makes me think we’ve already seen his best, and it’s not likely to be seen again

[Stangstag]

Yea, Atkins couldn’t find swing and miss for several seasons. It was not a good thing for the blue jays.

 

This season they seem to have completely turned it around, that is a good thing for the blue jays.

 

I haven’t had a ton of time to watch games this season so I haven’t been very active. From what i remember, the consenus seemed to be that it doesn’t matter if you get swing and miss in the pen. I’m happy that at least one person is coming around. Good for you, man.

 

In all seriousness, I’m very happy with the pen this year. Looking forward to seeing more games. Today was the first full one. The pitching in general seems great.

 

Where is the new whiff talent in the pen coming from? Four places.

 

Yimi Garcia is throwing his FB harder than ever and throwing more breaking pitches than ever. Result, highest whiff rate of his career.

Zach Pop, similar story in terms of breaking ball rate. More sliders and more whiffs.

Trevor Richards - scrapped the slider. Now 57% changeups, up from 37.5%. His 20.1% whiff rate is wild.

Erik Swanson - is on the team.

 

Shows how silly relievers are. You can trade for one good reliever and just tell a couple guys in your pen to throw more sliders and boom, you go from 14th in MLB RP K% rate to 4th. You don't need to spend $60M on some 31 year old free agent closer.

 

We’ll see if it holds up. Its looking good but it can turn to s*** real quick. Hopefully Green can come in by July/August and also look good.

 

Aged like milk

[connorp]

They're not signing Vladdy AND Bo.

 

It could happen. I wouldn’t wager on it, but it could happen.

[jaysblue]

Aged like milk

 

Yeah funny how a couple days ago, the bullpen was being praised as elite. Last three games, they've shown their true colours.

 

It's still a solid BP if everyone is used properly and if the Jays starters go deep into games.

 

It's not an elite pen though and there is definitely room for improvement. If that improvement doesn't come internally (Pearson + Green), will have to come via trade. Can't waste a good opportunity again this season.

 

Again, the bullpen is solid. Doesn't need a complete overhaul as some other posters suggest, but could use another elite arm or so. Hope Pearson and Green could be pieces to the puzzle.

[Dagagad]

It’s still early but this FO has many good qualities but they aren’t the kind of ‘smart’ FO that finds nasty pitchers out of nowhere.

 

This division is just so hard. We would be good to go in like 4 other divisions or 3 at least.

[Krylian]

It could happen. I wouldn’t wager on it, but it could happen.

 

Anything is possible.

 

I find it highly unlikely though.

[Olerud363]

Homeruns for and against AL East

 

TBR 62-19

Baltimore 36-34

Boston 44-42

Yankees 37-31

Toronto 33-42

 

Theoretically the Jays should not have lost homerun power since last year or even 2021 (though the ball is apparently softer). For example Varsho replaced Teo, Chapman replaced Semien, Belt replaced Gurriel.

 

The group of players has changed a bit, and the scenario where 2 players (Vlad, Semien) hit 93 homers probably won't happen again. However this team should be able to out homer it's opponents 205-175 or something.

 

It is beyond bizarre that this group of big strong guys is getting out-homered 2-1 by TBR. Need Tabler back to tell these guys how strong they are...

[Laika]

Homeruns for and against AL East

 

TBR 62-19

Baltimore 36-34

Boston 44-42

Yankees 37-31

Toronto 33-42

 

Theoretically the Jays should not have lost homerun power since last year or even 2021 (though the ball is apparently softer). For example Varsho replaced Teo, Chapman replaced Semien, Belt replaced Gurriel.

 

The group of players has changed a bit, and the scenario where 2 players (Vlad, Semien) hit 93 homers probably won't happen again. However this team should be able to out homer it's opponents 205-175 or something.

 

It is beyond bizarre that this group of big strong guys is getting out-homered 2-1 by TBR. Need Tabler back to tell these guys how strong they are...

 

George Springer is a f***ing problem. 0.086 ISO. He is playing like Randal Grichuk in a cold streak. Ugh.

Belt has been useless.

The "supporting cast" is mostly without power. Biggio + Belt + Espinal + Luplow + Lukes + Kiermaier have.... 268 combined PA and 5 combined home runs.

 

Merrifield has none but that's not his game anyway.

 

I'm not worried about the catchers. Their K-BB rates seem fine so they will both come around.

[Brownie19]

Homeruns for and against AL East

 

TBR 62-19

Baltimore 36-34

Boston 44-42

Yankees 37-31

Toronto 33-42

 

Theoretically the Jays should not have lost homerun power since last year or even 2021 (though the ball is apparently softer). For example Varsho replaced Teo, Chapman replaced Semien, Belt replaced Gurriel.

 

The group of players has changed a bit, and the scenario where 2 players (Vlad, Semien) hit 93 homers probably won't happen again. However this team should be able to out homer it's opponents 205-175 or something.

 

It is beyond bizarre that this group of big strong guys is getting out-homered 2-1 by TBR. Need Tabler back to tell these guys how strong they are...

 

Fans:

 

Jays hit a ton of home runs - "Jays rely too much on the long ball. They can't manufacture runs and this won't work in the playoffs"

Jays hit less home runs - "Jays need to hit more home runs"

[JaysAllMighty]

Well done Chappy!

 

[Stangstag]

Fans:

 

Jays hit a ton of home runs - "Jays rely too much on the long ball. They can't manufacture runs and this won't work in the playoffs"

Jays hit less home runs - "Jays need to hit more home runs"

 

Fans:

 

“Why did Schneider pull the starter early, he gave up 2 runs early but he was cruising!!”

 

Next week:

 

“Why didn’t Schneider go to pen! He tried to squeeze 1 more inning out of the starter and it backfired.”

[jaysblue]

Jays better start hitting more HR's or there won't be as many chicks at the Corona Rooftop Patio.

 

Chicks dig the long ball.

[Solaxys]

Even though Springer has had a lot of bad luck, he also hasn't had good ABs either.

 

He needs to be moved down, can't be getting the most ABs in this lineup with that much underperformance.

 

Bo > Vlad > Chap > Varsho > Merrifield > [w.e for 6/7] > Springer > Kiermaier

 

Obviously that's way too far for a guy you are paying a king's ransom to, but Springer/KK can definitely set the table for the top of the order, and they both have speed to get in scoring position through steals.

 

(If this works as a reverse jinx for tonight, I am all for it)

 

---

 

And our HR #s should normalize, too many 400+ ft flyouts from both Chap and Vlad. Vlad also needs to get going in terms of power, he isn't squaring up meatballs as often as he should.

[Krylian]

Jays better start hitting more HR's or there won't be as many chicks at the Corona Rooftop Patio.

 

Chicks dig the long ball.

 

That's what she said.