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Around Baseball 2023

John_Havok

By John_Havok
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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wamco Draft Eligible

wamco

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Posted
Posted

I’m there with you. I agree it’s not time to freak out yet. I think a trade will bring in 2 players and we’ll sign one of the Dh types. If that could all happen like today, I’d love that but that’s baseball free agency. I’d love it if free agency didn’t start immediately after the WS. After Xmas

Would work for me as it is draining.

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L54 Vancouver Canadians

L54

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Ah yes people doing the math and figuring out there's no wins available on the position player side

 

What do you mean?

MikeM3 College Ball

MikeM3

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What do you mean?

 

The delta in wins between one of the remaining SPs and our 5th and 6th options is quite possibly 4 wins because I really think our 6th SP options are minus war players.

 

So in my eyes the easiest way to add a f*** ton of wins is in the rotation.

 

The only way to add wins in the lineup is.. literally only Bellinger?

 

But if we don't re-sign Chapman you're kinda f***ed regardless

BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

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The delta in wins between one of the remaining SPs and our 5th and 6th options is quite possibly 4 wins because I really think our 6th SP options are minus war players.

 

So in my eyes the easiest way to add a f*** ton of wins is in the rotation.

 

The only way to add wins in the lineup is.. literally only Bellinger?

 

But if we don't re-sign Chapman you're kinda f***ed regardless

 

"WAR is WAR" calculations. KK projects 1 WIN. IKF was 0.2 in '23. Chappy & Belt were 6 WAR now gone.

 

Will the rotation be as healthy/productive as '23? Are Berrios and Kooch going to be '22 or '23 level in '24? Does Manoah come back and offset any rotation WAR regression? The pen has some question marks like most pens. They spent a lot exercising Green's option, so hopefully he is healthy and effective. They picked up Hicks for solid reasons.

 

If Vlad and Bo are both 5 ish WAR players again - problem pretty much solved. With hope Springer, Kirk and Varsho add to their '23 totals. Their projections are interesting.

 

The rest of this off season and 2024 are going to be really fascinating as the window narrows further.

max silver FCL Blue Jays

max silver

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Gio Urshela. 20th percentile outcome 1.1 war and 99th percentile outcome 1.2 war

 

Jays championship

 

I could see a world where Urshela bounces back to 2 win production. He's in tough after suffering a broken hip though. Prior to the injury it seems as though something was completely sapping his power production so rediscovering the power stroke would be key to bouncing back.

glory Vancouver Canadians

glory

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The delta in wins between one of the remaining SPs and our 5th and 6th options is quite possibly 4 wins because I really think our 6th SP options are minus war players.

 

So in my eyes the easiest way to add a f*** ton of wins is in the rotation.

 

The only way to add wins in the lineup is.. literally only Bellinger?

 

But if we don't re-sign Chapman you're kinda f***ed regardless

 

The two spots the Jays can add the most wins via free agency, assuming they have the money left to pull it off, is SP and DH. Unfortunately this is an awful market for 3B and OF. So I think there is some merit to signing a SP this winter, especially if they can get one on a shorter term contract, which is why I think Stroman makes a lot of sense for this team. Where they will have to make a trade, or risk having to start IKF, is 3B.

BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The two spots the Jays can add the most wins via free agency, assuming they have the money left to pull it off, is SP and DH. Unfortunately this is an awful market for 3B and OF. So I think there is some merit to signing a SP this winter, especially if they can get one on a shorter term contract, which is why I think Stroman makes a lot of sense for this team. Where they will have to make a trade, or risk having to start IKF, is 3B.

 

Ya. IKF's "GG" came in 58 games in 2020 with Tex. Elite D numbers small sample size a lifetime ago. Wasting a 3B power position for him in the AL East does not seem very enticing. It why they are dumpster diving for Gio and other options.

wamco Draft Eligible

wamco

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Sign stro 3/63

Trade Kikuchi for Kepler

Sign chap for 1/20 when no one signs him

Trade yimi and espinal for the best prospect you can.

 

 

Or sign Hoskins and keep Kikuchi

max silver FCL Blue Jays

max silver

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Ya. IKF's "GG" came in 58 games in 2020 with Tex. Elite D numbers small sample size a lifetime ago. Wasting a 3B power position for him in the AL East does not seem very enticing. It why they are dumpster diving for Gio and other options.

 

He produced DRS/OAA at a pretty similar rate in 2023 to his gold glove season. I don't think there's much doubt he would provide tremendous defense at third base but he's in really tough to do enough with the bat to justify regular playing time.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Ya. IKF's "GG" came in 58 games in 2020 with Tex. Elite D numbers small sample size a lifetime ago. Wasting a 3B power position for him in the AL East does not seem very enticing. It why they are dumpster diving for Gio and other options.

 

Weird take

 

He played 3B to some extent in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2023.

Every defensive measurement liked his defense at 3B in those seasons.

 

In 2021 and 22 he played an adequate shortstop.

 

He's still young.

 

There is basically no reason to doubt the defense...

 

Is 3B even a power position anymore? Guys will barely touch 100 wRC+ and be borderline all stars. There are six or seven studs at the position but everyone else gives something up.

G-Snarls Cooperstown

G-Snarls

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Gio's not better then IKF, this is dumpster diving at it's finest, if true.

 

I didn't want any of these mediocre ex Yankees

Frenchsoup FCL Blue Jays

Frenchsoup

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Trent Grisham Sucks, Verdugos is a mediocre defender but a nice contact bat. Soto is a nice pure hitter to all fields so he won't use the short porch that much but he might hit a couple off of use because gausman's pounding him in and then the split.
L54 Vancouver Canadians

L54

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

As a wise man once said, glad to see common sense prevails in the DR

G-Snarls Cooperstown

G-Snarls

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Bet he wishes that contract wasn’t backloaded

 

Rays backload every contract because they know they won't be the team paying them in the later years

L54 Vancouver Canadians

L54

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Rays backload every contract because they know they won't be the team paying them in the later years

 

Yes they do but I’m sure he wishes he made more than 8M of the 182M

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