Around Baseball 2023

[The Cats Ass]

Articles flying around about Boras holding firm on 200 mil for Bellinger. F that.

 

I can see a team doing that. 8/200, 25/yr. He’s still relatively young, he’d begin the final year of the contract at 35.

[The Cats Ass]

Bellinger is probably comparable to Nimmo who got 8/162. But with Bellinger you’d be getting his 28+29 season versus 36+37 with Nimmo.

[Jays24]

8/200M for Bellinger with a team opt out after year 6 and a player opt out after Year 5.

 

Boras can "save face" by pretending to get 200M and the Jays get the player they need at the price he's worth.

[Spanky__99]

8/200M for Bellinger with a team opt out after year 6 and a player opt out after Year 5.

 

Boras can "save face" by pretending to get 200M and the Jays get the player they need at the price he's worth.

 

I've never heard of a team opt out before, da fuq?

[Stangstag]

8/200M for Bellinger with a team opt out after year 6 and a player opt out after Year 5.

 

Boras can "save face" by pretending to get 200M and the Jays get the player they need at the price he's worth.

 

I don’t really see a reason Bellinger would opt-out in his age 33 season. Doesn’t make sense. They wouldn’t go for it.

 

More likely they do something shorter term and higher AAV, or something with a player opt-out after the 1st or 2nd year.

[Jays24]

I've never heard of a team opt out before, da fuq?

 

 

Now you have

[Jays24]

I don’t really see a reason Bellinger would opt-out in his age 33 season. Doesn’t make sense. They wouldn’t go for it.

 

More likely they do something shorter term and higher AAV, or something with a player opt-out after the 1st or 2nd year.

 

I was just playing around in ways to get Bellinger to 200M because no sane team should give him that with his track record.

 

Realistically he might need to sign another 1 year deal and have a big year if he is stuck on 200M+

[Spanky__99]

Now you have

 

There's a reason we never heard it before.

[connorp]

I was just playing around in ways to get Bellinger to 200M because no sane team should give him that with his track record.

 

Realistically he might need to sign another 1 year deal and have a big year if he is stuck on 200M+

 

When the player waits, it feels like they usually get it in the end.

[Jays24]

There's a reason we never heard it before.

 

We also never heard of a guy deferring 680M.

 

Anyways, lighten up... whole point was that Bellinger would have to settle for something crazy to get that 200M+ deal.

[Jays24]

When the player waits, it feels like they usually get it in the end.

 

Ya he does have the perfect agent for this. Some team will run out of options and probably give it to him but at least you can say you tried every angle before giving in. Let's see how it goes.

[Spanky__99]

Looks like Toronto's on the outside looking in...

 

The Dodgers are considering presenting an offer in the $250-300MM range to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. Reports from yesterday indicated that teams are likely to put forth contract proposals to the NPB star this week, with a decision perhaps coming by Monday.

 

Yamamoto’s landing spot and price point are perhaps the biggest remaining story of the offseason. The 25-year-old righty has emerged as the clear top free agent after Shohei Ohtani came off the board. It is believed the field has narrowed to seven teams: the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and Blue Jays.

 

This morning, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic indicated Philadelphia and Toronto are more on the outside of the market and could be longer shots. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith echoes that with regards to the Jays, reporting that Toronto is less likely to be one of the top finalists on Yamamoto than they were on Ohtani.

[Spanky__99]

We also never heard of a guy deferring 680M.

 

Anyways, lighten up... whole point was that Bellinger would have to settle for something crazy to get that 200M+ deal.

 

Should I have put an lol at the end of my post? You lighten up, meat.

[Jays24]

Looks like Toronto's on the outside looking in...

 

Good... want no part in paying a guy twice Gausman's contract. No pitcher is worth that without proving you are the elite of elites like a prime Cole, Scherzer, Verlander, etc.

 

At best, he will be worth his contract. At worst, it can be one the worst contract in the big leagues. Risk is just not worth it.

[Jays24]

Should I have put an lol at the end of my post? You lighten up, meat.

 

See what happens when I don't put an lol... chaos ensues lol

[Stangstag]

Looks like Toronto's on the outside looking in...

 

It ain’t gonna happen bud

[jaysblue]

Looks like Toronto's on the outside looking in...

 

Were they really finalists for him? I doubt it.

[jaysblue]

Ross Atkins needs to recreate Cody Bellinger in the aggregate instead of giving him over $200M.

 

Joey Gallo + Michael A. Taylor (combined could possibly give you 4+ WAR)

[Key22]

Good... want no part in paying a guy twice Gausman's contract. No pitcher is worth that without proving you are the elite of elites like a prime Cole, Scherzer, Verlander, etc.

 

At best, he will be worth his contract. At worst, it can be one the worst contract in the big leagues. Risk is just not worth it.

 

I think a 10 year 30+ million a year contract for a 5'8 pitcher is a tough ask for Toronto. I think you can get multiple players for the money on a shorter term. Perhaps Stroman - a guy who can flash Ace stuff. Someone solid.

 

I'm a bit surprised that there has been very little talk about Snell - he won the Cy Young - what's up there I wonder? He's a proven ace.

[jaysblue]

I think a 10 year 30+ million a year contract for a 5'8 pitcher is a tough ask for Toronto. I think you can get multiple players for the money on a shorter term. Perhaps Stroman - a guy who can flash Ace stuff. Someone solid.

 

I'm a bit surprised that there has been very little talk about Snell - he won the Cy Young - what's up there I wonder? He's a proven ace.

 

Not a big fan of Snell coming here and pitching in the AL East. High BB% rates which worry me long term.

 

Would rather save up and add a FA starter next offseason like Wheeler or Fried or someone.

[Spanky__99]

Were they really finalists for him? I doubt it.

 

I believe so, the Jays and Yoshi's camp were to meet, with several other teams meeting him this week, that blurb is from Kenny Ken, right there in black and white. He makes his decision after Christmas.

[Brownie19]

I'm a bit surprised that there has been very little talk about Snell - he won the Cy Young - what's up there I wonder? He's a proven ace.

 

1. I don't think he's a proven ace at all.

2. I think teams know he was lucky last year. His LOB% and BABIP is not sustainable (LOB% was 10% above his career average last year, BABIP, over 30 points below). Those resulted in an abnormally low ERA, which essentially won him the Cy Young.

3. The walks scare teams. They simply do.

4. I suspect his asking price is sky high coming off a Cy Young win (that he shouldn't have won) and very few teams believe that's actually the pitcher they'd get in a long term, high $$$ deal.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Brownie19

[Laika]

I think a 10 year 30+ million a year contract for a 5'8 pitcher is a tough ask for Toronto. I think you can get multiple players for the money on a shorter term. Perhaps Stroman - a guy who can flash Ace stuff. Someone solid.

 

I'm a bit surprised that there has been very little talk about Snell - he won the Cy Young - what's up there I wonder? He's a proven ace.

 

Snell is just waiting until he is the top SP on the market. That means waiting until Yamamoto signs.

[Laika]

1. I don't think he's a proven ace at all.

2. I think teams know he was lucky last year. His LOB% and BABIP is not sustainable (LOB% was 10% above his career average last year, BABIP, over 30 points below).

3. The walks scare teams. They simply do.

4. I suspect his asking price is sky high coming off a Cy Young win (that he shouldn't have won) and very few teams believe that's actually the pitcher they'd get in a long term, high $$$ deal.

 

Walks are just part of the package but not really an issue for him since the stuff is so good and he is hard to hit. Pretty consistent track record of not giving up runs.

 

Durability is the big question, teams will project him for like 120 innings so he's not getting Ace money. I could see 5/$125M (the Fangraphs prediction) or 6/$150M (closer to Rodon last year). Cost could creep up the actual Rodon contract though.

[Brownie19]

Walks are just part of the package but not really an issue for him since the stuff is so good and he is hard to hit. Pretty consistent track record of not giving up runs.

 

Durability is the big question, teams will project him for like 120 innings so he's not getting Ace money. I could see 5/$125M (the Fangraphs prediction) or 6/$150M (closer to Rodon last year). Cost could creep up the actual Rodon contract though.

 

I just see a huge drop in BABIP last year. The last time he had a BB/9 rate approaching 5, his BABIP and LOB% were close to his career norm and his WHIP was 1.32 and his ERA was 4.20. xFIP was 3.74 - similar to his xFIP of 3.62 last year. I think if he walks 5 per 9 next year, there's a good chance you get 2021 Snell. Don't get me wrong, when he's "on" he can be dominant. It will be fascinating to see what he gets and how that contract works out.

[wilko]

Ross Atkins needs to recreate Cody Bellinger in the aggregate instead of giving him over $200M.

 

Joey Gallo + Michael A. Taylor (combined could possibly give you 4+ WAR)

 

Moneyball that s***!

[max silver]

Ross Atkins needs to recreate Cody Bellinger in the aggregate instead of giving him over $200M.

 

Joey Gallo + Michael A. Taylor (combined could possibly give you 4+ WAR)

 

How many seasons do you think it would take these two to hit 4+ WAR? Steamer has the two projected for a total of 1.4 WAR, and over the last two seasons combined they produced 4.5 WAR.

 

I could easily get on board with a Taylor signing provided he'd be on board with typical 4th outfielder level of playing time, but damn that Gallo strikeout rate just keeps getting worse and he's having an increasingly hard time even managing a .300 OBP.

[L54]

I actually agree with Max. Not sure this board can stomach Joey Gallo hitting .194 with Varsho in center hitting .238

 

Odds Gallo + MAT provide 4 WAR is like 5%

[Jimcanuck]

Hate the idea of 2 roster spots for 2 very flawed players

 

Bellinger would mean 3 CF capable OF, and Biggio is fine as a 4th OF. Would allow to sign Teo or trade for someone like Eloy as a DH only

[John_Havok]

Hate the idea of 2 roster spots for 2 very flawed players

 

Bellinger would mean 3 CF capable OF, and Biggio is fine as a 4th OF. Would allow to sign Teo or trade for someone like Eloy as a DH only

 

I agree Belli would be the ideal fit, but his contract demands are pretty steep for a guy with enough caution tape on his profile that it looks like a crime scene.

 

I can buy the defense and the baserunning as being above average, I’m not sure I’m sold on the bat being exactly what it was last season or better. Maybe he’s found a system that works for him where he’s able to put far more balls on play at lower EVs but still let loose on the cookies he gets.

 

He’s definitely a risky signing but it could pay off pretty well also

Edited December 20, 2023 by John_Havok