Around Baseball 2023

[Terminator]

Imagine trying to spin that the Yankees getting Soto for the longterm is a bad thing for them while blowing your load waiting on Ohtani lol.

 

Soto being off the board before Ohtani makes his decision is our worst case scenario.

 

Soto is obviously good but it’s not so much about him it’s about the other worthless players they’ve added. Stanton is a zero at this point and Rodon could be. Judge and Cole are on the wrong side of 30. Is adding a 400 million dollar DH really what the team needs? 5 players and they’ll be at the luxury tax.

 

Jays are slightly different in that they aren’t saddled with horrible contracts until the end of the decade. And Ohtani presents unique opportunities for the team so they seemingly have an Ohtani budget and a non-Ohtani budget.

[burlingtonbandit]

Can't say I particularly agree with this. Up to this point of his career Varsho has been a 4 win center fielder in his time spent there (basically a full season worth of plate appearances). Bluejays Nation had a recent article outlining how Varsho would have been a 4 win player in 2023 if he'd spent all of his time in center field as well (based on the assumption that his defensive metric rates would have held up over a full season).

 

Varsho xwOBA by season

 

.288 37GP

.323 95GP

.298 151 GP

.303 158 GP

 

9.2 WAR

 

Grisham

.368 59 GP

.309 132 GP

.296 152 GP

.326 153 GP

 

8.5 WAR total

 

Both of them are the same age, Varsho certainly is the better defender but given Grisham is the 2nd piece in a big trade and the Jays traded away Moreno for Varsho, you would hope Varsho would be a lot better.

[Terminator]

Padres did fine I think. Yankees too.

 

Soto is great but he makes ~33 mil for one year. There’s not a ton of surplus value there. Michael King alone might provide more.

[BTS]

Padres did fine I think. Yankees too.

 

Soto is great but he makes ~33 mil for one year. There’s not a ton of surplus value there. Michael King alone might provide more.

 

Yeah seems fair. Padres probably would have been better off prioritizing upside, but Thorpe provides a bit of that. They accomplished what they wanted to. I don't think the Yankees will regret this either.

[Jays24]

I thought King looked like a damn stud down the stretch of the season. Padres obviously believe that will carry over. The only way you can justify this trade is if Soto signs longterm and I'd be shocked if Yankees let him go after paying this price.

[BTS]

I thought King looked like a damn stud down the stretch of the season. Padres obviously believe that will carry over. The only way you can justify this trade is if Soto signs longterm and I'd be shocked if Yankees let him go after paying this price.

 

King is good, but he's had a number of elbow injuries and last year was the first time since 2018 he came anywhere close to 100 IP. He also comes with only two years of control. Decent chance NY cashed him in at the right time.

[max silver]

Varsho xwOBA by season

 

.288 37GP

.323 95GP

.298 151 GP

.303 158 GP

 

9.2 WAR

 

Grisham

.368 59 GP

.309 132 GP

.296 152 GP

.326 153 GP

 

8.5 WAR total

 

Both of them are the same age, Varsho certainly is the better defender but given Grisham is the 2nd piece in a big trade and the Jays traded away Moreno for Varsho, you would hope Varsho would be a lot better.

 

The WAR totals don't account at all for playing time. Grisham has received about 430 extra plate appearances compared to Varsho, or something approaching a full season of play for these guys based on their typical playing time per season.

 

Average this out over 550 plate appearances, and Grisham has produced 2.45 FWAR/550 plate appearances. Varsho has produced an average of 3.16 FWAR/550 plate appearances. Each of these guys has an identical 96 wRC+ career value, however Varsho as mentioned has been a more effective defender. For what it's worth Varsho is projected by Steamer for 3.1 WAR in 2023, vs 2.1 for Grisham.

[Brownie19]

To be fair - I am surprised that Grisham is seemingly just a throw in player. They paid a lot to get him (at the time) and between the recent Bader (for Montgomery) and Varsho trades, I would have thought Grisham would have provided more in return.

[Jays24]

To be fair - I am surprised that Grisham is seemingly just a throw in player. They paid a lot to get him (at the time) and between the recent Bader (for Montgomery) and Varsho trades, I would have thought Grisham would have provided more in return.

 

Yup... Atkins would have traded Gurriel and Moreno for him

[jaysblue]

Soto is obviously good but it’s not so much about him it’s about the other worthless players they’ve added. Stanton is a zero at this point and Rodon could be. Judge and Cole are on the wrong side of 30. Is adding a 400 million dollar DH really what the team needs? 5 players and they’ll be at the luxury tax.

 

Jays are slightly different in that they aren’t saddled with horrible contracts until the end of the decade. And Ohtani presents unique opportunities for the team so they seemingly have an Ohtani budget and a non-Ohtani budget.

 

Springer could be a zero at some point if he doesn't turn it around. Ryu was pretty much a zero the past two seasons. So not sure how they could be much different than Stanton and Rodon. Gausman is on the wrong side of 30 as well, no different than Cole lol. Judge is still one of the most fearful hitters in the game. Even in just 106 games, he posted a 5.3 WAR and 174 wRC+. He hasn't shown any deterioration in his skillset. He's going to be 32 next season, so he's only two years older than Ohtani, but you're okay with giving Ohtani a $600M contract who will be on the wrong side of 30 as well.

 

The difference is the Yankees don't care about those worthless players they've added. Money is never an issue for them. Even if Stanton and Rodon become dead assets, won't stop them.

 

Yankees aren't going to have another 80-82 win team in 2024. If they add Soto + other big names, they take that jump into the 88-90 win territory, making the AL East much more tougher.

[jaysblue]

Padres did fine I think. Yankees too.

 

Soto is great but he makes ~33 mil for one year. There’s not a ton of surplus value there. Michael King alone might provide more.

 

LOL but if Atkins traded for Soto, this wouldn't even be an issue! Would have been a fantastic trade!

[burlingtonbandit]

The WAR totals don't account at all for playing time. Grisham has received about 430 extra plate appearances compared to Varsho, or something approaching a full season of play for these guys based on their typical playing time per season.

 

Average this out over 550 plate appearances, and Grisham has produced 2.45 FWAR/550 plate appearances. Varsho has produced an average of 3.16 FWAR/550 plate appearances. Each of these guys has an identical 96 wRC+ career value, however Varsho as mentioned has been a more effective defender. For what it's worth Varsho is projected by Steamer for 3.1 WAR in 2023, vs 2.1 for Grisham.

 

I think you are comparing Grisham in 5 years to Varsho's 4, because in the last 4 seasons the totals are:

 

Varsho 1603 PA

Grisham 1858 PA

 

Projected 2024 wRC+ by Steamer

Varsho 106

Grisham 103

 

Varsho is better, but not by much. And considering one is rumoured to be a throw in to a Soto deal and the other was the return of a top catching prospect its a bit depressing as a Jays fan.

[max silver]

Springer could be a zero at some point if he doesn't turn it around. Ryu was pretty much a zero the past two seasons. So not sure how they could be much different than Stanton and Rodon. Gausman is on the wrong side of 30 as well, no different than Cole lol. Judge is still one of the most fearful hitters in the game. Even in just 106 games, he posted a 5.3 WAR and 174 wRC+. He hasn't shown any deterioration in his skillset. He's going to be 32 next season, so he's only two years older than Ohtani, but you're okay with giving Ohtani a $600M contract who will be on the wrong side of 30 as well.

 

Yankees aren't going to have another 80-82 win team in 2024. If they add Soto + other big names, they take that jump into the 88-90 win territory, making the AL East much more tougher.

 

Biggest difference is the overall length of the deals we are discussing here. Ryu's deal was only for 4 years, and he provided pretty decent value over the first two before suffering a torn elbow ligament. Rodon's deal could already essentially be dead money in year 1 of a 6 year deal. Springer has another 3 years on his deal, but provided decent value relative to his contract over the first 3 seasons of his deal. The last year or two might end up as a relative zero, but compare this to Stanton who is already a dud with 4 more years to go.

[Olerud363]

Padres did fine I think. Yankees too.

 

Soto is great but he makes ~33 mil for one year. ThereÂ’s not a ton of surplus value there. Michael King alone might provide more.

 

If the Yankees have an unlimited payroll than does the surplus value matter?.... not sure if they have a limit this year, but if they've decided to go over the luxury tax and don't care home much then this doesn't stop them from spending more.

 

Like if the Mariners got him and had a 180 million dollar payroll then they can't get something better with that 33 million... but the Yankees can still get whatever else they want (I think).

[burlingtonbandit]

Springer could be a zero at some point if he doesn't turn it around. Ryu was pretty much a zero the past two seasons. So not sure how they could be much different than Stanton and Rodon. Gausman is on the wrong side of 30 as well, no different than Cole lol. Judge is still one of the most fearful hitters in the game. Even in just 106 games, he posted a 5.3 WAR and 174 wRC+. He hasn't shown any deterioration in his skillset. He's going to be 32 next season, so he's only two years older than Ohtani, but you're okay with giving Ohtani a $600M contract who will be on the wrong side of 30 as well.

 

The difference is the Yankees don't care about those worthless players they've added. Money is never an issue for them. Even if Stanton and Rodon become dead assets, won't stop them.

 

Yankees aren't going to have another 80-82 win team in 2024. If they add Soto + other big names, they take that jump into the 88-90 win territory, making the AL East much more tougher.

 

Stanton and Rodon look like they can be absolute nothings from here on out, I'd much rather have Springer than that lol. And Gauseman with 3 years left at around 20AAV is much better than Cole with 5/36 AAV.

[max silver]

I think you are comparing Grisham in 5 years to Varsho's 4, because in the last 4 seasons the totals are:

 

Varsho 1603 PA

Grisham 1858 PA

 

Projected 2024 wRC+ by Steamer

Varsho 106

Grisham 103

 

Varsho is better, but not by much. And considering one is rumoured to be a throw in to a Soto deal and the other was the return of a top catching prospect its a bit depressing as a Jays fan.

 

I'm comparing these guys entire careers up to this point. Consider that Varsho's defensive metrics took a dramatic leap forward in the last two seasons, and this will likely play a large part in his future defensive value in the outfield. It seems his first few years in the outfield saw him still getting used to playing the outfield compared to his split catching and outfield duties in his first few seasons. I believe if Varsho would have played full time in center field in 2023 he would have essentially been a 4 win player even with his 2023 offensive numbers, which would have the effect of raising his career average WAR/550 plate appearances to nearly 3.8. This is a much higher quality player than Grisham, who at this point of his career is essentially a 2 win player.

 

Check out this article to see how Varsho's projections change if it's assumed that he spends all of his time in center field, and not splitting time in left field and center field. This also surmises that his baserunning value doesn't take a dive this early in his career as well, and that he produces similar value on the bases. His Steamer projection would change to over 4 wins in this scenario with this years offensive numbers, and if he produces offense in line with his projections he's suddenly a 5+ win player.

 

https://bluejaysnation.com/news/a-deep-dive-into-daulton-varshos-value-to-the-blue-jays-moving-forward

[MikeM3]

Grisham and King might have similar values so it comes down to Thorpe for Soto....

[Brownie19]

Stanton and Rodon look like they can be absolute nothings from here on out, I'd much rather have Springer than that lol. And Gausman with 3 years left at around 20AAV is much better than Cole with 5/36 AAV.

 

Easy there. You'll confuse him with all those facts.

 

Can someone message me when jaysblue is done with his weekly rant about how s***** Atkins is? It just never stops.

[Frenchsoup]

Angels sign my boy Willie Calhoun

[Brownie19]

Grisham and King might have similar values so it comes down to Thorpe for Soto....

 

That could very well be true. It would be a lot more consistent with the recent cost of good defensive CFers (Bader for 1.5 years of Montgomery). Thorpe + fillers for Soto could very well be the deal. Would the Jays want to move Ricky + fillers for 1 year of Soto? Maybe they didn't?

[Jays24]

Soto is the type of guy you keep Moreno for... not to trade him for Varsho's scrubby ass.

 

I'm sure there were a bunch of the same people talking about how great of a trade that was when most thought it was ridiculous right away lol.

[Frenchsoup]

The Soto deal is not complete

[RobinThicc]

Yankees prospects are always overrated, so they pretty much traded King for 1 year of Soto. Pretty solid deal for them.

[max silver]

Soto is the type of guy you keep Moreno for... not to trade him for Varsho's scrubby ass.

 

I'm sure there were a bunch of the same people talking about how great of a trade that was when most thought it was ridiculous right away lol.

 

If Moreno is as great as you think he is why on earth would you have traded him for a rental player? Try to think before you post for once.

[deanmike]

If what the Yankees are giving up is true, there is no way the Jays were ever going to be seriously in on Soto. Atkins simply does not overpay to that degree in trades when it comes to surplus value exchanged. It just doesn't happen.

[Sammy225]

The Soto deal is not complete

 

I would piss myself if they looked at Kings medicals and decided to scrap the whole thing. To see Yankee fans loose their mind.

[Carlos Danger]

Grisham and King might have similar values so it comes down to Thorpe for Soto....

 

Don’t agree with you on this one Sir.

 

King is a controllable young #2-#3 SP and Grisham is a $4.5 million defensive replacement 4th OF at the moment. Thorpe close enough to Tiedemann so basically like us giving up Berrios, RT plus, plus..

[BTS]

Don’t agree with you on this one Sir.

 

King is a controllable young #2-#3 SP and Grisham is a $4.5 million defensive replacement 4th OF at the moment. Thorpe close enough to Tiedemann so basically like us giving up Berrios, RT plus, plus..

 

King isn’t controllable or young though, and I think it will be a surprise if he contributes #2 SP value

Edited December 6, 2023 by BTS

[Frenchsoup]

Guys elite if healthy Queen Bee

[Carlos Danger]

King isn’t controllable or young though, and I think it will be a surprise if he contributes #2 SP value

 

Well, 28, which is not old as pitchers go. 2 yrs control I believe and making $ 1.3 M. He sure did look like a #2, #3 for the most part this year.