Around Baseball 2023

[xposbrad]

Soto apparently turned down a 15yr/440m deal from the Nats. So not sure what he is looking for? But Vlad at 20m and looking for more long term (25M?) is not good at all for a below average fielding 1B and possibly DH.

[connorp]

Domingo German isn’t a bad backend SP. That’s the kind of guy SD could get. NY waived him

[BTS]

Saw a discussion the other day about the lack of elite pitchers these days, and how there aren't really any under 30 years old that seem to be on a HoF track. We've got the big 4 who will get in: Greinke, Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer. Then probably Cole. But there's really nobody younger that seems to be on track. Hader might be the best bet? Compare that to hitters under 30 where we have Seager, Soto, Acuna, Ohtani, J-Rod, Carroll all seemingly on track, along with probably a dozen older guys.

[Terminator]

Saw a discussion the other day about the lack of elite pitchers these days, and how there aren't really any under 30 years old that seem to be on a HoF track. We've got the big 4 who will get in: Greinke, Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer. Then probably Cole. But there's really nobody younger that seems to be on track. Hader might be the best bet? Compare that to hitters under 30 where we have Seager, Soto, Acuna, Ohtani, J-Rod, Carroll all seemingly on track, along with probably a dozen older guys.

 

Hmm yeah that's a good call. Just scrolling through things quickly and it's a bunch of guys who are around 30 WAR and 30 and over. Would take a tremendous end to their careers for one of them to get in. Most of the guys under 30 wiith a few years under their belt don't even seem close.

 

And then there's the guys like Spencer Strider, who might be one of the better guesses, but he's so far away as a pitcher that it's not even worth thinking about right now.

[BTS]

Hmm yeah that's a good call. Just scrolling through things quickly and it's a bunch of guys who are around 30 WAR and 30 and over. Would take a tremendous end to their careers for one of them to get in. Most of the guys under 30 wiith a few years under their belt don't even seem close.

 

And then there's the guys like Spencer Strider, who might be one of the better guesses, but he's so far away as a pitcher that it's not even worth thinking about right now.

 

Yeah. After Cole, you've got Darvish and Sale who stand an outside chance if they can somehow get healthy and have 3-4 more 4+ win seasons. Then Wheeler, Nola, and Gausman in a group in their earlier 30s who still probably need to put like 25 WAR on the board to get into the conversation. I don't think it happens for any of those 5.

 

Strider is really the only young guy who seems to be on the trajectory if he keeps it up. But that's a long, long road to travel.

[Laika]

You need to readjust your WAR barometer for hall of fame SP because teams simply don't let them accrue as much WAR now.

 

170 IP is the new 200 IP

 

And it probably only gets worse

[BTS]

You need to readjust your WAR barometer for hall of fame SP because teams simply don't let them accrue as much WAR now.

 

170 IP is the new 200 IP

 

And it probably only gets worse

 

Yeah. Might take awhile for voters to adjust. Could be a period where very few modern day pitchers are inducted before standards start to shift. We're used to 55-60 WAR being a barometer for HoF eligibility, bu that's probably going to move to like 40-45 for pitchers going foward. I think a Zack Wheeler career might actually be a typical HoF career over the next 20-30 years, but nobody is even talking about him in those terms right now.

[Laika]

Yeah, peak years become more important. Wheeler is putting together an elite peak right now with some playoff chops on top.

 

Some guy like Pablo Lopez or Luis Castillo could do that

[Marew]

Padres value is up 50% since 2018. Rays up about 20%

[Dick_Pole]

Saw a discussion the other day about the lack of elite pitchers these days, and how there aren't really any under 30 years old that seem to be on a HoF track. We've got the big 4 who will get in: Greinke, Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer. Then probably Cole. But there's really nobody younger that seems to be on track. Hader might be the best bet? Compare that to hitters under 30 where we have Seager, Soto, Acuna, Ohtani, J-Rod, Carroll all seemingly on track, along with probably a dozen older guys.

 

Been saying this for a couple of years already. Trash can teams like the Rays gamed the system instead of drafting, developing AND paying pitchers with actual talent who can go out there and dominate for well over 200 innings a season. Everyone else followed suit. Now we have teams rostering 30+ pitchers a year, most of them no-name flame throwers at max effort for 20 pitches. Simple solution. Cut out all the other stupid ******** like 3 batter minimum. You're only allowed to roster 15 pitchers at some point in time all year. You've hit your maximum and someone goes down with an injury? Too bad, your shortstop is pitching now. I know neither the PA nor owners would agree to such an idea. This would be my fantasy as dictator enforcing the rule. No time to prepare either. Rule is in effect at the start of next year.

 

30 years ago the 1993 Jays rostered 16 pitchers. 12 if you exclude the September call-ups and one dude who was lost for the year after pitching an inning. That's the type of baseball I want to see again.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/1993.shtml

 

This "avoid having your starting pitcher face the batting order a third time around cuz stats" logic isn't smart, data-driven baseball. It's just a dumbass trope now that everyone blindly follows. You know what would be smart baseball? Having to make a choice as to whether you leave your starter in or not for the third time around the order, knowing that you have limited pitching resources to back him up instead of 18 flame throwing clones rotated through your AAA squad.

[Dick_Pole]

San Diego is probably the worst sports city. In terms of on-field performance and general fan suffering.

 

Chargers mostly stunk, then the city lost them.

Clippers stunk, then the city lost them.

Padres mostly stunk, arguably the worst MLB franchise of all time. And the few times they are good, they really aren't that good, then land into insolvency territory.

 

I guess Seattle and Vancouver could relate to a lot of that too. Except they only lost one team each. The whole Pacific coast is a sea of tears for sports fans except LA and SF, sometimes. f***, Boston alone this century probably has more trophies across the big four sport leagues than the entire west coast.

[BTS]

Been saying this for a couple of years already. Trash can teams like the Rays gamed the system instead of drafting, developing AND paying pitchers with actual talent who can go out there and dominate for well over 200 innings a season. Everyone else followed suit. Now we have teams rostering 30+ pitchers a year, most of them no-name flame throwers at max effort for 20 pitches. Simple solution. Cut out all the other stupid ******** like 3 batter minimum. You're only allowed to roster 15 pitchers at some point in time all year. You've hit your maximum and someone goes down with an injury? Too bad, your shortstop is pitching now. I know neither the PA nor owners would agree to such an idea. This would be my fantasy as dictator enforcing the rule. No time to prepare either. Rule is in effect at the start of next year.

 

30 years ago the 1993 Jays rostered 16 pitchers. 12 if you exclude the September call-ups and one dude who was lost for the year after pitching an inning. That's the type of baseball I want to see again.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/1993.shtml

 

This "avoid having your starting pitcher face the batting order a third time around cuz stats" logic isn't smart, data-driven baseball. It's just a dumbass trope now that everyone blindly follows. You know what would be smart baseball? Having to make a choice as to whether you leave your starter in or not for the third time around the order, knowing that you have limited pitching resources to back him up instead of 18 flame throwing clones rotated through your AAA squad.

 

All of this is true. And then MLB deliberately made the problem worse by expanding rosters to 26. There's no reason why pitching staff need to be 13 deep. I don't think they should be limited to 15 total pitchers over the course the season, but more disincentives for using options would be nice. Make someone unavailable for months if they're optioned to AAA to help stop the revolving door of 96 mph fastball/slider 1-inning relievers.

[Laika]

At some point they will need to change more rules. Nobody likes this brand of pitcher usage.

 

Could be small things like... You can't option a pitcher for two days after they were last used.

 

Could be weird things like... Once you remove your SP you can no longer ask for any video reviews.

 

Or team level incentives for having traditional SP usage.

[Olerud363]

Been saying this for a couple of years already. Trash can teams like the Rays gamed the system instead of drafting, developing AND paying pitchers with actual talent who can go out there and dominate for well over 200 innings a season. Everyone else followed suit. Now we have teams rostering 30+ pitchers a year, most of them no-name flame throwers at max effort for 20 pitches. Simple solution. Cut out all the other stupid ******** like 3 batter minimum. You're only allowed to roster 15 pitchers at some point in time all year. You've hit your maximum and someone goes down with an injury? Too bad, your shortstop is pitching now. I know neither the PA nor owners would agree to such an idea. This would be my fantasy as dictator enforcing the rule. No time to prepare either. Rule is in effect at the start of next year.

 

30 years ago the 1993 Jays rostered 16 pitchers. 12 if you exclude the September call-ups and one dude who was lost for the year after pitching an inning. That's the type of baseball I want to see again.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/1993.shtml

 

This "avoid having your starting pitcher face the batting order a third time around cuz stats" logic isn't smart, data-driven baseball. It's just a dumbass trope now that everyone blindly follows. You know what would be smart baseball? Having to make a choice as to whether you leave your starter in or not for the third time around the order, knowing that you have limited pitching resources to back him up instead of 18 flame throwing clones rotated through your AAA squad.

 

Right. The only way to stop this trend is to have a dictatorship. Free market will just drift to the optimal solution.

 

As people well know most of my baseball views were shaped by the fall of the Pat Gillick Blue Jays into the 30 year ongoing mess that we have now (a couple of extra wild cards have made the up years look better, but same s*** since 1994).

 

I go on and on about how Cito 'ruined' Olerud, Green, Snider and others... but he also ruined Juan Guzman and Pat Hentgen. I'm not so hard on him for this, because in the mid 90s the limits for starting pitchers weren't as much public knowledge as they are now I guess. Never going back to a system where Cy Young contenders like Guzman (92 and 96) and Hentgen (94 and 96) struggle to put up back to back good years and are done at 28. That will happen still but teams just aren't going back to having it happen after a guy pitches 250 innings, or a workload he can't handle.

 

And not just health but performance.

 

Look at the recently completed world series. Galen throwing no hitter, cruising through 6 then implodes. Evaldi cruising in game 1 I think then implodes. How the hell do you 'know' if the cruising pitcher is going to implode? Guys look great through 4 of 5 routinely look terrible in inning 6 or 7.

 

When the pitcher gets pulled early people complain, but when left in too long they don't care. That's the main force preventing the pitching patterns becoming more extreme. However the stats are the stats, and in terms of performance and injury prevention these trends will continue.

[MikeM3]

You just gotta restrict how many pitchers you can roster somehow. That's all there is to it. Also Gallen pulling a f***ing pitch card out of his pocket mid AB is insane and he should go to prison Edited November 3, 2023 by MikeM3

[Stangstag]

At some point they will need to change more rules. Nobody likes this brand of pitcher usage.

 

Could be small things like... You can't option a pitcher for two days after they were last used.

 

Could be weird things like... Once you remove your SP you can no longer ask for any video reviews.

 

Or team level incentives for having traditional SP usage.

 

Haven’t they been floating the idea of losing the DH once you pull your starter?? That could work and add a lot of strategy. Also makes the traditional starter that can go 6-7 innings much more valuable.

[L54]

This is exactly what I was talking about when I said I don’t care who is the best 40 man roster manipulator, I care about who can bring the best 26 man roster to the playoffs

 

I don’t want to watch the Rays just cycle through 25 guys cut from the same cloth and win 99 games. Or the fact that the Dodgers have 17 major league caliber starters available to them to churn and burn.

[thatoneguy]

San Diego is probably the worst sports city. In terms of on-field performance and general fan suffering.

 

Chargers mostly stunk, then the city lost them.

Clippers stunk, then the city lost them.

Padres mostly stunk, arguably the worst MLB franchise of all time. And the few times they are good, they really aren't that good, then land into insolvency territory.

 

I guess Seattle and Vancouver could relate to a lot of that too. Except they only lost one team each. The whole Pacific coast is a sea of tears for sports fans except LA and SF, sometimes. f***, Boston alone this century probably has more trophies across the big four sport leagues than the entire west coast.

 

Seahawks have had success in recent years and the Kraken have shown promise, but yeah the Canucks have been a trainwreck up until this year for the past decade and the Trailblazers are stuck in mediocrity and lost Lillard.

[BTS]

Pretty busy day today:

 

- Tigers acquire Canha

- Neris, Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez opt out

- Votto and Tim Anderson have their options decline

 

Stroman and E-Rod probably both get paid given the paper thin FA market

[Carlos Danger]

I like Neris in the Jays pen.

[wamco]

At some point they will need to change more rules. Nobody likes this brand of pitcher usage.

 

Could be small things like... You can't option a pitcher for two days after they were last used.

 

Could be weird things like... Once you remove your SP you can no longer ask for any video reviews.

 

Or team level incentives for having traditional SP usage.

 

Manfred said last week that he wants to lower the number of pitchers on the 26m roster from 13 to 12. He wants sp to go deeper into games.

 

A rare occasion where I agree with him. He can shove his ghost runner up his ass

[BTS]

Manfred said last week that he wants to lower the number of pitchers on the 26m roster from 13 to 12. He wants sp to go deeper into games.

 

A rare occasion where I agree with him. He can shove his ghost runner up his ass

 

The expanded roster was so f***ing stupid. 5-man benches with the universal DH is dumb.

[wamco]

Going back to 25m roster would have to be negotiated with union, right?

[Laika]

Going back to 25m roster would have to be negotiated with union, right?

 

Yeah it would be a CBA thing

[L54]

The real question will be whether or not the forum leagues adopt 25 man rosters if the change happens

[Carlos Danger]

Hopefully they keep it at 26 and just reduce that amount of pitchers to 12.. Someone will say it will lead to more injuries with pitchers. So most likely nothing will change.

[Marew]

Most young pitchers can only do 5 innings. Maybe 6. There is George Kirby. There is

[TheHurl]

Most young pitchers can only do 5 innings. Maybe 6. There is George Kirby. There is

 

I don't think that is true. Most pitchers in this max effort era can pitch (and remain healthy) as many innings as you want to throw them out there. There just will be a lot more runs scored.

 

moving to 12 pitchers max will kill the pitchers with no options. They need to think about the next step of the Rays before they keep trying to create more rules to score more runs.

[jaysblue]

Pretty busy day today:

 

- Tigers acquire Canha

- Neris, Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez opt out

- Votto and Tim Anderson have their options decline

 

Stroman and E-Rod probably both get paid given the paper thin FA market

 

How would Tim Anderson look at 2B? Would kind of remind me as when the Jays signed Semien to a one-year deal for the 2021 season. Has a chance to be a bounce back candidate.

[max silver]

How would Tim Anderson look at 2B? Would kind of remind me as when the Jays signed Semien to a one-year deal for the 2021 season. Has a chance to be a bounce back candidate.

 

I like him as a bounce back candidate but question whether the front office would see him as a character fit due to the on and off the field shenanigans.