Around Baseball 2023

[Spanky__99]

Toronto kind of seems to be in a window right now instead of primed for perpetual contention. Might as well just get a top-3 hitter in the game and try to make as much noise as possible in 2024. Recoup some value via a comp pick in the offseason.

 

Geez... I wouldn't be opposed for a guy like him. That's a fap alert.

[Spanky__99]

For 1 year?? Not sure about that… maybe something like Tieds + Orelvis but I can’t see the Pads getting more than 1 top 30ish prospect + 1 fringe top 100 prospect.

 

Orelvis is a top 50 prospect? And yes, it'd likely take both of them, Jim's not wrong.

[jaysblue]

Toronto kind of seems to be in a window right now instead of primed for perpetual contention. Might as well just get a top-3 hitter in the game and try to make as much noise as possible in 2024. Recoup some value via a comp pick in the offseason.

 

Yeah this FO really needs to take advantage of their windows in 2024 and 2025 when you have guys like Bo still under contract and have guys in the rotation like Gausman in top form. I've been saying this for the longest time. They need to find another elite player and can't go into 2024 relying on Vlad to be that guy. Hopefully Atkins does make some noise this offseason. Soto would be a perfect fit for this lineup and team overall.

[jaysblue]

For 1 year?? Not sure about that… maybe something like Tieds + Orelvis but I can’t see the Pads getting more than 1 top 30ish prospect + 1 fringe top 100 prospect.

 

There aren't really many players like Soto available via free agency. Other than Ohtani and Bellinger. Probably 27 or 28 teams are already out of the bidding for Ohtani anyways, which leaves Bellinger as the only elite bat available but even he comes with some question marks. You either can pay huge dollars and years to Belly or could sign guys to 1-2 year deals like Teo, LGJ, Pederson, Pham, Brantley etc.

 

Padres still should get a strong package for one year of Soto. If they wait until the trade deadline, likely not.

[Laika]

Who are the last truly elite players to be traded with only one year of "expensive" control remaining?

 

I think Machado was a deadline deal but I guess you could use that as a comparison.

[connorp]

Who are the last truly elite players to be traded with only one year of "expensive" control remaining?

 

I think Machado was a deadline deal but I guess you could use that as a comparison.

 

I was curious what Betts made, which was $20m+ so that would count as expensive.. which was weird why that wouldn’t be the comp…

 

But besides that point, I was seeing his salary.. he gets paid over 11 years after his deal for 10+ million each year, so I’m sure it’s the same for a lot of them. I know in looking at the Padres, it seemed that way too. So you have to consider that strategy when analyzing the big deals. By the time 2034 comes around, the cap will be at least $10m higher and $10m will be a lesser amount in current dollars

[Laika]

Oh yeah Betts would definitely count

 

That was a "boring" return even if the math says it was worth it for Boston (the math would be wrong, but whatever). Verdugo has settled in as a really boring, fringe-average player. Wong is just a backup C and Jeter Downs was/is nothing.

 

Not a great comp for San Diego's side. It shows that people were not willing to part with an elite prospect for even Mookie Betts at final arb cost. And that was Mookie with a good chance of extension signing - Soto probably goes to FA.

[Stangstag]

Who are the last truly elite players to be traded with only one year of "expensive" control remaining?

 

I think Machado was a deadline deal but I guess you could use that as a comparison.

 

Mookie

[Laika]

Machado was also a boring return. Baltimore had to squeeze every f***ing drop out of Dean Kremer with their new player development gurus to make that worth it.

[L54]

I would not give up Tiedemann and Orelvis for a year of Soto. I’m not opposed to trading them but you gotta get more than one year of control. At least they have the chance to be above average regulars and there aren’t a ton of them in the minors

[Brownie19]

Who are the last truly elite players to be traded with only one year of "expensive" control remaining?

 

I think Machado was a deadline deal but I guess you could use that as a comparison.

 

Doc Halladay?

[connorp]

Verdugo was #35 Pipeline, so about the same as RT. There were some good players right behind him in the rankings: Riley, Alvarez, and Robert

[Laika]

My guess for a Soto deal would be more like this:

 

Soto + Cronenworth

 

for

 

Bag of players with marginal value and perhaps more name value than objective value. i.e., Tucker Toman + Cavan Biggio + Manuel Beltre + Yosver Zulueta

 

I feel like SDP wants to dump salary and Cronenworth is close enough to being a good player that some GM might squint and think they can save him and make that contract a positive.

 

Just using the Blue Jays players as an illustration. But the best kind of player is a prospect everyone knows who has seen their value plummet. So, SDP can pitch it as acquiring a "top prospect"

[max silver]

Oh yeah Betts would definitely count

 

That was a "boring" return even if the math says it was worth it for Boston (the math would be wrong, but whatever). Verdugo has settled in as a really boring, fringe-average player. Wong is just a backup C and Jeter Downs was/is nothing.

 

Not a great comp for San Diego's side. It shows that people were not willing to part with an elite prospect for even Mookie Betts at final arb cost. And that was Mookie with a good chance of extension signing - Soto probably goes to FA.

 

Boston really kicked themselves in the nuts return wise by insisting that David Price be included in any Betts deals.

[connorp]

Boston really kicked themselves in the nuts return wise by insisting that David Price be included in any Betts deals.

 

Forgot about that. Good point to consider. Every dog has its day, mate.

[Laika]

Boston really kicked themselves in the nuts return wise by insisting that David Price be included in any Betts deals.

 

yeah and Boston even ate 50% of his salary as part of the deal

 

really bad trade

[BTS]

It was always weird that for that one trade Boston felt the need to act like a small market team

[connorp]

Mookie on a mlb ambassador trip to the WS goes out of his way to praise Bauer and hope a teams signs him.

Good thing Mookie is black and exempt from most blowback

[L54]

Mookie on a mlb ambassador trip to the WS goes out of his way to praise Bauer and hope a teams signs him.

Good thing Mookie is black and exempt from most blowback

 

That’s impossible. All of his teammates hated him

[BTS]

Dodgers fan's won't like this at all. They've been telling themselves for two years that the clubhouse hated him and he had to go. And their team basically nuked their 2023 season to appease the fans. Imagine losing with Lance Lynn on the mound while paying Bauer 30M or whatever to pitch in Japan.

[Stangstag]

My guess for a Soto deal would be more like this:

 

Soto + Cronenworth

 

for

 

Bag of players with marginal value and perhaps more name value than objective value. i.e., Tucker Toman + Cavan Biggio + Manuel Beltre + Yosver Zulueta

 

I feel like SDP wants to dump salary and Cronenworth is close enough to being a good player that some GM might squint and think they can save him and make that contract a positive.

 

Just using the Blue Jays players as an illustration. But the best kind of player is a prospect everyone knows who has seen their value plummet. So, SDP can pitch it as acquiring a "top prospect"

 

Soto + Cronenworth would honestly probably be worth it for the Jays. 2 lefties you can slot in to play everyday at 2 positions of need. Lets you feel more comfortable about giving 3B to a rookie like Schneider or Barger. Would really hamstring us with financial flexibility but f*** it, probably trading Vlad and Bo next offseason anyways if we still don’t make a deep run

[wilko]

Soto + Cronenworth would honestly probably be worth it for the Jays. 2 lefties you can slot in to play everyday at 2 positions of need. Lets you feel more comfortable about giving 3B to a rookie like Schneider or Barger. Would really hamstring us with financial flexibility but f*** it, probably trading Vlad and Bo next offseason anyways if we still don’t make a deep run

 

The Cronenworth deal isn't even that bad (until the later years).

[glory]

Soto + Cronenworth would honestly probably be worth it for the Jays. 2 lefties you can slot in to play everyday at 2 positions of need. Lets you feel more comfortable about giving 3B to a rookie like Schneider or Barger. Would really hamstring us with financial flexibility but f*** it, probably trading Vlad and Bo next offseason anyways if we still don’t make a deep run

 

The AAV for Cronenworth isn't awful, but he's signed from age 30-36. There's almost certainly going to be some dead money in there. Although short term it might work out if he's playing 2B everyday as the Padres sunk a lot of his value by playing him at 1B last season. I guess I could see a scenario where it would make sense for the Jays to do a deal like that, especially if it allows them to keep what's left of their top prospects. But when Soto is gone after 2024 and you're stuck with 6/70 left on JC's deal, then it looks less appealing.

Edited October 31, 2023 by glory

[Brownie19]

Farm To Fame (@farmtofame_) • Instagram photos and videos

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68K likes, 351 comments - farmtofame_ on October 10, 2023: "This kid is a beast!".

 

That's interesting. Will more players from Japan do the same thing?

[Laika]

Farm To Fame (@farmtofame_) • Instagram photos and videos

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68K likes, 351 comments - farmtofame_ on October 10, 2023: "This kid is a beast!".

 

That's interesting. Will more players from Japan do the same thing?

 

I seem to remember one player from Japan or Korea who skipped domestic pro ball and somehow entered the MiLB system as a teenager. I forgot who it was though. I don't think they went to college.

 

Oh, it was Hak-Ju Lee.

 

I guess it's something some Korean players have done before, but probably no Japanese league players since their pro baseball system is so robust.

[John_Havok]

Farm To Fame (@farmtofame_) • Instagram photos and videos

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68K likes, 351 comments - farmtofame_ on October 10, 2023: "This kid is a beast!".

 

That's interesting. Will more players from Japan do the same thing?

 

My guess is this may increase but not by a tremendous amount. As Laika said, the Japanese system is very big and holds a lot of meaning for Japanese people beyond just playing baseball.

 

Plus, it's the kind of thing that may, down the road, strain the relationship between MLB and the Japanese league if more and more kids decide they want to come over to the US before they play in the Japanese league, skipping the while posting system, which is a pretty big money haul for those teams when they do have players leave.

 

I know this kid if coming to play college ball, not be signed as an international FA by an MLB team, so one might think there'd be no reason for the Japanese pro to care with respect to their MLB relationship, but it's all related.

[glory]

 

Not sure if the Padres will do a full fire sale but Soto is definitely getting traded. Just a matter of who else follows.

[connorp]

 

Not sure if the Padres will do a full fire sale but Soto is definitely getting traded. Just a matter of who else follows.

 

I thought it was like a Cohen situation where he wanted to trim if he wasn’t winning. Don’t think Cohen would need to do loans against team for liquid cash. Never know with rich people though

[Stangstag]

I thought it was like a Cohen situation where he wanted to trim if he wasn’t winning. Don’t think Cohen would need to do loans against team for liquid cash. Never know with rich people though

 

If he got better interest rates for investments vs the loan then yeah it just makes more sense to take a loan. Ez money. Doesn’t necessarily mean the team is hurting for cash.

[Jimcanuck]

 

Not sure if the Padres will do a full fire sale but Soto is definitely getting traded. Just a matter of who else follows.

 

Machado for sure. If I'm the Jays, he's a target.