Around Baseball 2023

[mellowgold]

I actually kinda hope Seattle sweeps Houston this weekend. With three Houston losses, all we need to do is win one of our last six and they can't catch us. And maybe Seattle will leapfrog us and we'll get the Minnesota/Texas path.

 

Although...Tampa doesn't look overly scary right now either.

[Grant77]

I actually kinda hope Seattle sweeps Houston this weekend. With three Houston losses, all we need to do is win one of our last six and they can't catch us. And maybe Seattle will leapfrog us and we'll get the Minnesota/Texas path.

 

Although...Tampa doesn't look overly scary right now either.

 

Isn't it the same scenario if Houston sweeps Seattle?

 

This team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs if they can't win 2 of the last 6, which more or less assures a playoff spot. We almost deserve to miss the playoffs if we can't do that against two (probably) disinterested teams that aren't playing starters.

[mellowgold]

No it's not the same

We have the tie-breaker vs. Houston

 

But either way I'm good

[Jimcanuck]

Sandy Alcantara shut down with a UCL strain, decision pending on surgery (TJS).

 

Overused in 2022 perhaps?

[Grant77]

The astros are a more disliked team than the mariners, plus mariners are kind of underdogs. So I think that is the happiest end result for most fans. Probably most of baseball fans in general too.

 

To hell with Seattle. They didn't have a playoff calibre roster last year or this year. I hate seeing s***** teams make the playoffs and I hate seeing the Jays implode against said s***** teams. I'm no fan of Houston, but their team is far more deserving. Either way, I hope they lose to the Twins or Rays.

[connorp]

I’m rooting for Baltimore if Jays lose bc f*** all the closet TB ball lickers that have lurked here for years

[Masterbather]

I’m rooting for Baltimore if Jays lose bc f*** all the closet TB ball lickers that have lurked here for years

 

Damn man, why not just root for a team like Minnesota? They've been the Yankees bitch for so long and now they finally have a path.

[connorp]

Damn man, why not just root for a team like Minnesota? They've been the Yankees bitch for so long and now they finally have a path.

 

They’re something just unsexy about them, they’ve been some version of what they are now, first round playoff team at best.idk.. and their aura is just boring. Towards bottom of my list any year

[Grant77]

I dont choose why I hate the teams, but their fans being very entitled is a big part of it. Dont care about how bad of a team the mariners are, they won the games they had to and got to this point.

 

You should just hate Boston like me if that's your criteria. They have the worst fans in the history of sports by a Grand Canyon sized margin.

[connorp]

Texas I’m liking too just bc of all the hate here.

ATL is the kind of team I like for excellence. Over LAD for me.

No other teams in the NL excite me

[BTS]

I’m rooting for Baltimore if Jays lose bc f*** all the closet TB ball lickers that have lurked here for years

 

Wow, I thought we were friends

[connorp]

Wow, I thought we were friends

 

You sir, are a serial cheater and the Chief of the Cheaters. Don’t be passing judgement on anyone

[BTS]

You sir, are a serial cheater and the Chief of the Cheaters. Don’t be passing judgement on anyone

 

wat

[connorp]

There’s impressions of “T” and “B” across different parts of your tongue from all the TB anus licking you’ve done for a decade. Time for a change. Baltimore is here to stay

[Jimcanuck]

There’s impressions of “T” and “B” across different parts of your tongue from all the TB anus licking you’ve done for a decade. Time for a change. Baltimore is here to stay

 

Accurate

[BTS]

There’s impressions of “T” and “B” across different parts of your tongue from all the TB anus licking you’ve done for a decade. Time for a change. Baltimore is here to stay

 

In 4 years when Baltimore's entire core are Angelos casualties, TB will still be winning 95+ games annually. They are inevitable.

[connorp]

In 4 years when Baltimore's entire core are Angelos casualties, TB will still be winning 95+ games annually. They are inevitable.

 

Except they likely wouldn’t let anyone walk with guys like Grayson, Adley, Holliday, Gunnar etc. it’d be a reshuffle of epic proportions

[thatoneguy]

I’m rooting for Baltimore if Jays lose bc f*** all the closet TB ball lickers that have lurked here for years

 

Lol f*** Baltimore.

 

All of the AL East can lick my taint.

[Olerud363]

In 4 years when Baltimore's entire core are Angelos casualties, TB will still be winning 95+ games annually. They are inevitable.

 

Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basillo the best of the Baltimore farm system haven't even shown up yet. All the secondary pieces (Cowser, Westburg, Kjerstad) have all just been called up, so in 4 years only Rutchman and Henderson will be close to free agency, all the others will be ARB1.

 

Angelos is probably just bullshitting about not signing anyone. Admittedly the attendance is a bit disappointing for a 100 win team, but they are still way ahead of where the Rays are. Next year will be telling. Attendance should be up to 2.5 million next year, coming off of a 100 win season.

 

They are going to win 100 games without using payroll on the Ryus, Springers, and Garcias of the world. Maybe they'll just keep a payroll of 60 forever... I doubt that though. Even if they don't go to a top 5 payroll, they have a huge amount of payroll space moving ahead, so hard to see them getting in to real trouble within 4 years.

[Olerud363]

they are going nowhere if they dont spend on pitching, they won't be winning 100 games and many of those prospects will fizzle out.

 

They have so many prospects tearing up the minor leagues that it won't matter if a couple fizzle out. Someone (not me actually) was going on about Dylan Beavers the other day, dynamite hitter, tearing up AA and is like their 10th best prospect. Colby Mayo, guy that is like Orelvis Martinez, with a .290 average instead of .240 no one is even talking about. Samuel Basillo as an 18 (just turned 19) year old is ahead of where Vlad was at 18 and is their 5th best prospect supposedly.

 

Their pitching prospects (McDermitt, Povich) are farther down the list... but have great k-rates, and who knows how to evaluate pitchers properly in the 'automated strike zone' minor leagues. Everyone knows Nathan Lukes and Clement and even Howritz (though he is a real prospect) have somewhat deceptive stats, so that means the pitching prospects also have deceptive stats.

 

Anyway point is Orioles have so much depth, they can convert some of the position player depth to pitching, or perhaps the position players are actually over-rated, but the pitching prospects are under-rated.

[connorp]

Not sure what Graysons’s numbers haven’t been, after his demotion, but I’d wager they are close to #1 SP territory

 

Then at least next year you have Means, Bradish, Kremer… not too different than Toronto rotation really

[Laika]

Bradish you could call an SP1/2 at this point even though he's not a capital a "Ace."

 

Grayson is a stud. His xFIP is/was a bit under 4.00 both before and after his demotion. There was a lot of ERA noise in his first half but he's getting lucky in the second half so it evens out.

 

Kremer is just a nice SP5 eating innings. Means is a wild card but it's not like he was amazing pre-injury, just sneaky good.

 

On talent alone Bradish-Grayson-Means-Kremer is similar to Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Kikuchi but the error bars / variance on the O's four is WAY WAY WAY higher. Toronto's core is much more likely to just do their thing in 2024 and produce as expected.

[BTS]

Bradish you could call an SP1/2 at this point even though he's not a capital a "Ace."

 

Grayson is a stud. His xFIP is/was a bit under 4.00 both before and after his demotion. There was a lot of ERA noise in his first half but he's getting lucky in the second half so it evens out.

 

Kremer is just a nice SP5 eating innings. Means is a wild card but it's not like he was amazing pre-injury, just sneaky good.

 

On talent alone Bradish-Grayson-Means-Kremer is similar to Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Kikuchi but the error bars / variance on the O's four is WAY WAY WAY higher. Toronto's core is much more likely to just do their thing in 2024 and produce as expected.

 

Means might be pitching for a contract right now. 2024 is his last arb year, and he'll likely be due 7-10M. Could see Baltimore non-tendering him if the velo/stuff doesn't tick up through October.

 

Their willingness to get outside help for their rotation in the offseason will be a good indicator of how serious they are about winning.

[Olerud363]

Means might be pitching for a contract right now. 2024 is his last arb year, and he'll likely be due 7-10M. Could see Baltimore non-tendering him if the velo/stuff doesn't tick up through October.

 

Their willingness to get outside help for their rotation in the offseason will be a good indicator of how serious they are about winning.

 

He only got 2.8 million last year. He won't get more than 3.5 million after pitching like 20 innings this year.

 

They are very serious about winning, so serious they aren't going to sign any conventional big time contracts and will continue to develop pitching internally (like I said their own pitching prospects are probably under-rated), make some hitting prospect for pitching prospect trades, sign some lottery tickets. Pay roll space will be used to keep young player long term.

[BTS]

He only got 2.8 million last year. He won't get more than 3.5 million after pitching like 20 innings this year.

 

They are very serious about winning, so serious they aren't going to sign any conventional big time contracts and will continue to develop pitching internally (like I said their own pitching prospects are probably under-rated), make some hitting prospect for pitching prospect trades, sign some lottery tickets. Pay roll space will be used to keep young player long term.

 

He didn't go through the arb system. He signed a two-year deal with the team after getting hurt, before the 2022 season. Even injured, arb would have had him at around 3M for 2022.

[Olerud363]

He didn't go through the arb system. He signed a two-year deal with the team after getting hurt, before the 2022 season. Even injured, arb would have had him at around 3M for 2022.

 

Why would he get a huge raise in arb either way? After his healthy season he asked for 3.1, the team countered with 2.7. After hardly pitching this year he won't be in line for an increase.

 

Arb system rewards guys who are healthy and consistent with big raises. I don't think it does anything for injured or under-performing players, and they can even have their salary reduced (albeit only by a little bit).

[BTS]

Why would he get a huge raise in arb either way? After his healthy season he asked for 3.1, the team countered with 2.7. After hardly pitching this year he won't be in line for an increase.

 

Arb system rewards guys who are healthy and consistent with big raises. I don't think it does anything for injured or under-performing players, and they can even have their salary reduced (albeit only by a little bit).

 

I think current arb operates at something like 20/40/60 % of a player's estimated market value in arb years 1, 2 and 3. Means would be expected to make significantly more healthy going into arb3 than the ~3M he was expected to make via arb1 for a season he wasn't expected to pitch.

 

It's why a lot of injured arb-eligible pitchers just sign multi-year deals with their teams. The alternative is often being non-tendered.

[connorp]

I think he signed a 2/7 deal so there is no arb?

[BTS]

I think he signed a 2/7 deal so there is no arb?

 

That was for 2022 and 2023

[Laika]

So HOU is: 3xSEA 3xARI

TEX is: 3xLAA 4xSEA

SEA is: 3xHOU 4xTEX

 

Seattle is on the f***ing ropes. Houston also has a tough outside series with Arizona, a good team that will be fighting to the end of the year.

 

Toronto might need to go 0-6 to miss the playoffs. I do believe in their ability to lose 6 straight games to a lifeless NYY and a TBR with nothing to play for.