Around Baseball 2023

[MikeM3]

Eovaldi could lose 20% of his stuff and basically pitch hurt like he did at the end of last year and have more in the tank than Bassitt.

[max silver]

Eovaldi could lose 20% of his stuff and basically pitch hurt like he did at the end of last year and have more in the tank than Bassitt.

 

That's kind of a weird shot at Bassitt who has pitched really damn well after his first start of the season meltdown. I wouldn't argue that Eovoldi offers ace like upside when he manages to stay healthy and pitch at peak effectiveness, but this hasn't been something he's been able to accomplish for most of his career.

[Orgfiller]

Eovaldi could lose 20% of his stuff and basically pitch hurt like he did at the end of last year and have more in the tank than Bassitt.

 

Ironic you would say this, since Eovaldi early in his career was known as being that starter with a 99 mph fastball that was pretty mediocre and couldn't strike anyone out. So yeah, I don't think him with worse stuff would actually make him a valuable pitcher at all. And he does get injured a lot. Would love to have him, but he's certainly prone to breaking.

[Brownie19]

Had a monster start last night but it was against Oakland… actually his last 3 starts have been nasty damn. He didn’t look great near the beginning though and be was facing easy teams.

 

He’s been a great value signing so far but really the question is if his arm can hold up.

 

Of for sure - the health is never guaranteed. But he's a f***ing stud when healthy, knows how to pitch in the AL East and only required a 2 year commitment. Seemed like a no-brainer to me.

[wilko]

Eovaldi could lose 20% of his stuff and basically pitch hurt like he did at the end of last year and have more in the tank than Bassitt.

 

Hot take.

[MikeM3]

The Rays picked up Diekman and now he throws a literal unknown pitch according to Savant and they must have done this with machine learning AI or something. We are f***ed gents just accept it.

 

I'm pretty sure they just use machine learning to evaluate the biomechanics of players. They assign dollar amounts to specific physical traits on players and don't even look at a single result based metric. And we sign guys based on innings pitched.

[Orgfiller]

The Rays picked up Diekman and now he throws a literal unknown pitch according to Savant and they must have done this with machine learning AI or something. We are f***ed gents just accept it.

 

I'm pretty sure they just use machine learning to evaluate the biomechanics of players. They assign dollar amounts to specific physical traits on players and don't even look at a single result based metric. And we sign guys based on innings pitched.

 

Jesus Christ you're insufferable these days.

 

Statcast was just malfunctioning. Neither the location or the velocity of Diekman's pitches were recorded properly. He threw a few sinkers, a sweeper and what appear to be a couple of changeups.

 

https://old.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/13fl21z/rekrabmb_the_rays_have_jake_diekman_throwing/jjvlvua/

 

Good luck to the Rays in fixing Diekman's command, the stuff was never a problem.

[MikeM3]

Jesus Christ you're insufferable these days.

 

Statcast was just malfunctioning. Neither the location or the velocity of Diekman's pitches were recorded properly. He threw a few sinkers, a sweeper and what appear to be a couple of changeups.

 

https://old.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/13fl21z/rekrabmb_the_rays_have_jake_diekman_throwing/jjvlvua/

 

Good luck to the Rays in fixing Diekman's command, the stuff was never a problem.

 

Yes it's hyperbole but we're really far behind man. It's hard to be excited about the future.

[Brownie19]

That's kind of a weird shot at Bassitt who has pitched really damn well after his first start of the season meltdown.

 

He's pitched one game this year with an xFIP < 5. He's walking WAY to many and it's been some smoke and mirror success IMO with a ton of luck with his BABIP.

[Orgfiller]

The Rays lose another one. Drew Rasmussen, who just dominated last night, straight to the 60-day IL with a flexor strain.

[jaysblue]

The Rays lose another one. Drew Rasmussen, who just dominated last night, straight to the 60-day IL with a flexor strain.

 

Springs, Glasnow, and now Rasmussen. Damn. Imagine if the Jays lost the equivalent of arms.

[glory]

Signing Eovaldi over Bassitt would have been fine with me. I'm not sure if that was possible (it takes two to tango in free agency) or whether the Jays valued Bassitt higher due to less perceived injury risk, but performance/stuff/AL East history definitely was in Eovaldi's favor, and he got a shorter contract on a lower AAV. Thinking about it further, Atkins usually aims pretty highly in free agency (Ryu, Springer, Semien, Gausman, etc). In this case, Bassitt was a floor rather than ceiling signing, but still got a pretty large AAV. Could be worse though, the Jays could have been holding the bag for Rodon, which thankfully they didn't pursue.

[Laika]

The Rays lose another one. Drew Rasmussen, who just dominated last night, straight to the 60-day IL with a flexor strain.

 

This is what happens when you just let a machine AI computer model select your pitchers

 

Our big lump Alex Manure will probably never get injured. You can count on him (to walk 5 guys and limp through 5 IP).

[max silver]

He's pitched one game this year with an xFIP < 5. He's walking WAY to many and it's been some smoke and mirror success IMO with a ton of luck with his BABIP.

 

I place approximately zero value on XFIP as a method of evaluating pitcher performance. I think aside from the issue with walks Bassitt has pitched pretty well for the most part. He was f***ed over by the umpire in the Seattle game, but settled down very nicely after the early home run.

 

He's been inducing a ton of soft contact so far. I had a look at his XBA values from start to start, and that seems to back up the low'ish batting average on balls in play to a degree. Batting average vs XBA start to start is as follows:

 

Batting Average/Expected Batting Average For Each Start

 

.556/.491

.143/.199

.2/.197

.13/.314

.13/.201

.125/.15

.182/.214

 

There's really only 1 start in there where it appears as though Bassitt was extraordinarily lucky on batted balls, with a few starts where he was a little bit lucky at least as far as batting average is concerned. I think a more useful comparison would be WOBA vs XWOBA on a start to start basis.

 

WOBA/XWOBA Per Start

 

0.728/0.694

0.281/0.327

0.3/0.323

0.156/0.315

0.217/0.271

0.307/0.294

0.259/0.306

 

This paints a pretty similar picture to batting average vs expected batting average, in that there is really only one game where Bassitt looked to have been blessed by above when it comes to expected results vs actual results, which a few other games where he appeared to be a little bit lucky.

[Laika]

I place approximately zero value on XFIP as a method of evaluating pitcher performance. I think aside from the issue with walks Bassitt has pitched pretty well for the most part. He was f***ed over by the umpire in the Seattle game, but settled down very nicely after the early home run.

 

He's been inducing a ton of soft contact so far. I had a look at his XBA values from start to start, and that seems to back up the low'ish batting average on balls in play to a degree. Batting average vs XBA start to start is as follows:

 

Batting Average/Expected Batting Average For Each Start

 

.556/.491

.143/.199

.2/.197

.13/.314

.13/.201

.125/.15

.182/.214

 

There's really only 1 start in there where it appears as though Bassitt was extraordinarily lucky on batted balls, with a few starts where he was a little bit lucky at least as far as batting average is concerned. I think a more useful comparison would be WOBA vs XWOBA on a start to start basis.

 

WOBA/XWOBA Per Start

 

0.728/0.694

0.281/0.327

0.3/0.323

0.156/0.315

0.217/0.271

0.307/0.294

0.259/0.306

 

This paints a pretty similar picture to batting average vs expected batting average, in that there is really only one game where Bassitt looked to have been blessed by above when it comes to expected results vs actual results, which a few other games where he appeared to be a little bit lucky.

 

I dunno dawg. He's been lucky by the wOBA / xwOBA thing in most starts. Or just plain horrendous in the first start.

 

xFIP is basically just a crude xwOBA type measurement. No reason to hate it.

[wilko]

The Rays lose another one. Drew Rasmussen, who just dominated last night, straight to the 60-day IL with a flexor strain.

 

Jesus.. that sucks. I'm sure they got another 2 or 3 SP's in the incubation chamber ready to hatch.

[John_Havok]

I dunno dawg. He's been lucky by the wOBA / xwOBA thing in most starts. Or just plain horrendous in the first start.

 

xFIP is basically just a crude xwOBA type measurement. No reason to hate it.

 

Bassitt is the kind of pitcher who would probably always be a beater of those metrics too (xFIP or xwOBA) since he lives by soft contact rather than swing and miss. He'll be that way until he loses that last degree of command that makes his pitches crushable more often.

[G-Snarls]

Oakland A's starting rotation has a combined ERA of 7.88

[Spanky__99]

The Rays lose another one. Drew Rasmussen, who just dominated last night, straight to the 60-day IL with a flexor strain.

 

Oof...

[Spanky__99]

This is what happens when you just let a machine AI computer model select your pitchers

 

Our big lump Alex Manure will probably never get injured. You can count on him (to walk 5 guys and limp through 5 IP).

 

lmao

[max silver]

I dunno dawg. He's been lucky by the wOBA / xwOBA thing in most starts. Or just plain horrendous in the first start.

 

xFIP is basically just a crude xwOBA type measurement. No reason to hate it.

 

I guess even though most individual starts don't have massive gulfs between expected and actual stats it could be a bit of a death by 1000 cuts scenario where by the time the results are tabulated there is a pretty large gulf by the end.

 

I still don't like xFIP as it has no way to account for quality of contact. A guy could be allowing line drives all over the diamond and still look like a star as long as the smashes are constantly finding their way into gloves. Perhaps comparing wOBACON vs xwOBACON could be a good indicator of Bassitt being overly lucky on balls in play.

 

I was able to eventually create a custom chart with Statcast to compare these values, and the results really don't help to back up my theory that Bassitt hasn't been overly lucky on balls in play after all. His actual weighted on base average on contact (wOBACON) is .315, vs his expected weighted on base average on contact which is a lot higher at .381. Sadly enough Bassitt leads among Jays starters in this particular statistic.

 

Others Jays starters contact numbers as follows:

 

wOBACON/xwOBACON

 

Gausman .413/.418

Manoah .364/403

Kikuchi .395/.409

Berrios .390/.440

[Jimcanuck]

After 7 shutout innings last night, Drew Rasmussen to the 60 Day. He's already had TJS twice.

 

He might well be done.

 

edit - already posted, missed it

Edited May 12, 2023 by Jimcanuck

[max silver]

After 7 shutout innings last night, Drew Rasmussen to the 60 Day. He's already had TJS twice.

 

He might well be done.

 

Rays seem to be all about the high risk high reward breed of pitcher so this doesn't come as a huge surprise.

[Jimcanuck]

Rays seem to be all about the high risk high reward breed of pitcher so this doesn't come as a huge surprise.

 

Taj Bradley probably up for good now. Although he has sucked at AAA since he was sent down.

[John_Havok]

I guess even though most individual starts don't have massive gulfs between expected and actual stats it could be a bit of a death by 1000 cuts scenario where by the time the results are tabulated there is a pretty large gulf by the end.

 

I still don't like xFIP as it has no way to account for quality of contact. A guy could be allowing line drives all over the diamond and still look like a star as long as the smashes are constantly finding their way into gloves. Perhaps comparing wOBACON vs xwOBACON could be a good indicator of Bassitt being overly lucky on balls in play.

 

I was able to eventually create a custom chart with Statcast to compare these values, and the results really don't help to back up my theory that Bassitt hasn't been overly lucky on balls in play after all. His actual weighted on base average on contact (wOBACON) is .315, vs his expected weighted on base average on contact which is a lot higher at .381. Sadly enough Bassitt leads among Jays starters in this particular statistic.

 

Others Jays starters contact numbers as follows:

 

wOBACON/xwOBACON

 

Gausman .413/.418

Manoah .364/403

Kikuchi .395/.409

Berrios .390/.440

 

It's not that you need to have faith in every stat like xFIP you just have to undertand what type of pitcher would typically beat those numbers. Pitchers that have somehow mastered the soft contact result are exactly those types. Knuckleballers fall into that category too. The reason xFIP works well for the majority of pitchers is because most guys haven't figured out the soft contact thing because they can't. Some pitchers get the soft contact results far more often than others due to having mastery of a trick pitch, like a knuckler, or thorwing the kitchen sink like Bassitt where hitters really have no clue what's coming and and up with weak contact. Very few pitchers can do this, and those pitchers also find themselves walking a pretty thin tightrope from being usefull... to useless. It takes one small dip in command and they get annihilated.

[max silver]

It's not that you need to have faith in every stat like xFIP you just have to undertand what type of pitcher would typically beat those numbers. Pitchers that have somehow mastered the soft contact result are exactly those types. Knuckleballers fall into that category too. The reason xFIP works well for the majority of pitchers is because most guys haven't figured out the soft contact thing because they can't. Some pitchers get the soft contact results far more often than others due to having mastery of a trick pitch, like a knuckler, or thorwing the kitchen sink like Bassitt where hitters really have no clue what's coming and and up with weak contact. Very few pitchers can do this, and those pitchers also find themselves walking a pretty thin tightrope from being usefull... to useless. It takes one small dip in command and they get annihilated.

 

I just tend to think that with the advent of the data driven Statcast based performance indicators FIP and especially xFIP have become somewhat irrelevant. XFIP was an odd choice of performance indicator for Bassitt in the first place given that all of his other sabermetric performance indicators are actually worse than his current xFIP value of 5.13 (FIP of 5.33, xERA of 5.17, SIERA of 5.15 etc.)

[John_Havok]

I just tend to think that with the advent of the data driven Statcast based performance indicators FIP and especially xFIP have become somewhat irrelevant. XFIP was an odd choice of performance indicator for Bassitt in the first place given that all of his other sabermetric performance indicators are actually worse than his current xFIP value of 5.13 (FIP of 5.33, xERA of 5.17, SIERA of 5.15 etc.)

 

To a point... they are. But xFIP is still a decent first glance # for the vast majority of pitchers.

[Stangstag]

Eovaldi could lose 20% of his stuff and basically pitch hurt like he did at the end of last year and have more in the tank than Bassitt.

 

This aged well lol

[jaysblue]

James Paxton allowed two runs on four hits and a walk over five innings, while striking out nine yesterday in his return to action.

[BigCecil]

PITT 1-9 the last 10 coming back down to earth.

 

We probably need an AL EAST thread on its on. .550 is the worst winning %. Insane.

 

Orioles just won't stop winning. Mullins hits for cycle.

 

Yanks keeping their heads above water, decimated by injuries. Got to tip your cap.