Around Baseball 2023

[connorp]

"Beyond the sheer need for long-term help in the rotation, there’s surely an element of financial creativity at play here. Darvish’s preexisting six-year, $126MM contract came with a $21MM luxury hit (based on the contract’s AAV). Since this new deal is being tacked onto the end of that old contract, it effectively becomes an 11-year, $216MM deal. That comes with a reduced luxury hit of $19.64MM. It’s not a major savings, but the Padres were right up against the third tier of luxury penalization, so any newly created breathing room is quite welcome. Once crossing into that third luxury tier, a team is penalized not only in the form of steeper tax rates but also by having their top pick in the next year’s draft dropped by 10 places."

 

mlbtr wrote that

 

can't really think of that as the primary motivation for this though. extending an old pitcher until he is 41 in order to save $2M in luxury tax space this season seems... funny

 

You have the IQ of a Pug dog. $20m is not the same as it was when he signed for 6/126. So having that be your cap hit for the duration is good

[Terminator]

You have the IQ of a Pug dog. $20m is not the same as it was when he signed for 6/126

 

IQ of a Pug dog? Wow!

[Laika]

You have the IQ of a Pug dog. $20m is not the same as it was when he signed for 6/126. So having that be your cap hit for the duration is good

 

that has nothing to do with what I said

[Laika]

anyway, connorp is right and you can basically ignore the last two years for baseball reasons and just think of this as a 3/90 commitment after 2023

 

and BTS is also right. throwing that money at Darvish right now seems pretty dumb.

[Terminator]

Hey Spanky you have the IQ of a Basset Hound! Boom, roasted.

 

https://www.dogster.com/lifestyle/dumbest-dog-breeds

[connorp]

that has nothing to do with what I said

 

Well this years saving wasn’t the primary motivation

[connorp]

Hey Spanky you have the IQ of a Basset Hound! Boom, roasted.

 

https://www.dogster.com/lifestyle/dumbest-dog-breeds

 

Context

[Terminator]

Context

 

The context is that we are using dog IQ insults and I just nuked Spanky by calling him the dumbest IQ dog there is. But actually I change my mind. I want to call Spanky an Afghan Hound. Jim is the Basset Hound.

[connorp]

The context is that we are using dog IQ insults and I just nuked Spanky by calling him the dumbest IQ dog there is. But actually I change my mind. I want to call Spanky an Afghan Hound. Jim is the Basset Hound.

 

Ok. I’m on board then…… I would not have thought a poodle would be at the top of the smart list. Clearly I don’t know anything about rich white ladies passions as I chase after the hot foreign chicks

[connorp]

anyway, connorp is right and you can basically ignore the last two years for baseball reasons and just think of this as a 3/90 commitment after 2023

 

and BTS is also right. throwing that money at Darvish right now seems pretty dumb.

 

If Darvish repeats 2022, I think you have competition at 3/90 for Darvish and that’s the primary concern when making extensions

[Brownie19]

If Darvish breaks in say 2+ years, he probably retires and insurance covers it and the amount is spread out to lessen the luxury tax hit. Darvish’s control has gotten very good, less then 2.0 bb rate over the last 3 years. That’s really good to see as the stuff lessens.

 

I'm pretty sure if Darvish retires he doesn't get paid - so doubtful he would just randomly retire and insurance won't pay for s*** unless he's actually injured. That said, SD is clearly in a must win now mode. They probably only have a 2-3 year window (and I kind of hope this blows up in their face as I don't like this approach in general). The lower luxury tax hit obviously helps a little bit right now, which is why they did 6 years, but it also tightens their window even more as paying Darvish $20M per year for 3-4 years at the end of the deal, when he's unlikely to be playing (effectively) is going to further hurt their financial flexibility.

[connorp]

I'm pretty sure if Darvish retires he doesn't get paid - so doubtful he would just randomly retire and insurance won't pay for s*** unless he's actually injured. That said, SD is clearly in a must win now mode. They probably only have a 2-3 year window (and I kind of hope this blows up in their face as I don't like this approach in general). The lower luxury tax hit obviously helps a little bit right now, which is why they did 6 years, but it also tightens their window even more as paying Darvish like $40M when he's unlikely to be playing (effectively) is going to further hurt their financial flexibility.

 

Well, I mean not officially retires. And I think SD has to keep him on the 40 man to collect insurance

[Laika]

If Darvish repeats 2022, I think you have competition at 3/90 for Darvish and that’s the primary concern when making extensions

 

I kind of doubt it

Darvish is no Scherzer or Verlander

and he's not projected to repeat 2022, or anything close

[connorp]

I kind of doubt it

Darvish is no Scherzer or Verlander

and he's not projected to repeat 2022, or anything close

 

Well, from that point of view I get it. I like Darvish, when you strike out 10+ and walk 2, you’re capable of being an Ace. Admittedly he hasn’t put it together but he’s showing signs of learning to pitch better. Control and such

[BTS]

I see Darvish more as Charlie Morton than Verlander

[Jimcanuck]

The context is that we are using dog IQ insults and I just nuked Spanky by calling him the dumbest IQ dog there is. But actually I change my mind. I want to call Spanky an Afghan Hound. Jim is the Basset Hound.

 

And connorp is the shih-tzu/pug cross

Edited February 9, 2023 by Jimcanuck

[wilko]

Ok. I’m on board then…… I would not have thought a poodle would be at the top of the smart list. Clearly I don’t know anything about rich white ladies passions as I chase after the hot foreign chicks

 

There's a lot of different breeds of poodles but most are the larger kind that are used for bird hunting. Super smart dogs.

[Ehjays]

[jaysblue]

I don't think the Padres had to extend Darvish at this exact minute given his age and at that cost. They were bidding against themselves. I don't see Darvish getting that type of contract as a FA after 2023.

[connorp]

I don't think the Padres had to extend Darvish at this exact minute given his age and at that cost. They were bidding against themselves. I don't see Darvish getting that type of contract as a FA after 2023.

 

I can respect the different viewpoint. I just think of Darvish as being capable of being a legit Ace. Im probably in the minority but also next year the FA class is very thin. A level below Max and JV, but again, they’re $40m/yr guys

[Deadpool]

Hey Spanky you have the IQ of a Basset Hound! Boom, roasted.

 

https://www.dogster.com/lifestyle/dumbest-dog-breeds

 

I can tell you from experience that the dumbest dog is a shih-tzu/pug cross

 

Source: I have one of those and oh my god, so dumb.

[L54]

Zero reason to give Darvish six years. What a dumb move to be perfectly honest.

 

You’re almost guaranteed to be the high bidder if you give him that contract in the offseason. But you’re blessed with the benefit of hindsight knowing what he did in 2023.

[jaysblue]

I can respect the different viewpoint. I just think of Darvish as being capable of being a legit Ace. Im probably in the minority but also next year the FA class is very thin. A level below Max and JV, but again, they’re $40m/yr guys

 

I think when Darvish is healthy and on, he's a very good 1A or No. 2 arm. He's still a notch below JV and Max who have consistenly been 5-6 WAR pitchers every season, whereas Darvish hasn't strung together consistent 4 WAR seasons.

 

He definitely would be an attractive FA after 2023 if he had another 4 WAR season, though don't think he gets JV or Max money.

[G-Snarls]

I think when Darvish is healthy and on, he's a very good 1A or No. 2 arm. He's still a notch below JV and Max who have consistenly been 5-6 WAR pitchers every season, whereas Darvish hasn't strung together consistent 4 WAR seasons.

 

He definitely would be an attractive FA after 2023 if he had another 4 WAR season, though don't think he gets JV or Max money.

 

Heck no

 

Those guys have much longer track records of CONSISTENT high level performance

[connorp]

Heck no

 

Those guys have much longer track records of high level performance

 

Yes, but they’re also 39 and getting close to $45m/year, not 30. Scherzer is going to be getting $45m in his age 42 season and expected to earn it. As mentioned, the team is not factoring any value into Darvish last couple years.

[G-Snarls]

Padres Expected To Pursue Extension With Manny Machado

 

February 9th, 2023 at 4:54pm CST • By Darragh McDonald

 

The Padres already grabbed headlines earlier today by agreeing to an extension with Yu Darvish that runs through 2028. It seems the next order of business will be Manny Machado, with Dennis Lin of The Athletic reporting that the club is expected to explore a long-term deal with their third baseman prior to Opening Day. Machado’s current deal runs through 2028 but he can opt out after the upcoming campaign.

[G-Snarls]

This seems like a larger priority than a Darvish extension...

[Ehjays]

[connorp]

 

I mean, you wonder what goes though a players head. I guess it all depends on the guy. Some might shrug their shoulders and know it’s the business, but others might be like f*** you

[Jimcanuck]

I mean, you wonder what goes though a players head. I guess it all depends on the guy. Some might shrug their shoulders and know it’s the business, but others might be like f*** you

 

I don't think it matters, really. End of the day, pretty much every player will sign wherever the money is. Tucker isn't going to say f*** you to the Astros if they offer $10M more than the next guy.