Team Strength 2022 vs 2023

[Jimcanuck]

Which is better team, Jays as of now or Jays as of April 1 2022

[Horses Fart]

Definitely now if u ask me but would still like to see another couple pieces. Hates the White/Kikuchi thought.

[Jays24]

Defense 2023

Offense 2022

SP 2023

Bullpen 2023

Bench 2023 - I feel we're going to add at least 1 more key piece.

[G-Snarls]

New team is better overall

 

The 2023 team has:

 

Slightly better SP

Better BP

Much better defense

Better baserunning

Better complement of players/flexibility/versatility/left-right bat mix

 

Offense is definitely a little worse based on paper projections, but a good year from Vladdy and Springer counteracts that in terms of actual run production on the field

[Dick_Pole]

This is a tough question. Do I think this roster is better now than on April 1, 2022, having seen them play out 2022? Yes.

 

But do I think the Jays are better now than what I thought on April 1? No.

 

I legit thought this was a 100 win team. Then the same BP issues propped up, Berrios took a big s***, and Guerrero was 3-4 WAR lower than where I expected him to be.

 

I expected 100+ wins in 2022 and a serious playoff run, got 92 and a sorry playoff performance instead. Now I expect around 95 wins, which is better than 2022 but lower than my expectations of the 2022 team. So there's my long winded non-answer.

[Terminator]

The teams are pretty similar. It's easier to say 2023 is better but we can look at 2022 with the benefit of hindsight.

 

s*** is going to happen in 2023 that will bare holes and deficiencies that we might not even know were there. Or, some players could step up and (i.e. Kikuchi puts up 2+ WAR and solidifies the #5 rotation spot) cover what we think is a hole.

 

So all that said I give the edge to 2023 as it seems to be a more well rounded team but it's pretty close.

[Deadpool]

Defense 2023

Offense 2022

SP 2023

Bullpen 2023

Bench 2023 - I feel we're going to add at least 1 more key piece.

 

I agree with your rankings, though I disagree that we'll have another key signing. I don't think we see a signing that hits 8 figures from here on out.

 

I'm bullish on this team as is, and I bet a few minors guys impress in the spring.

[Laika]

Position 2022 2023 (Delta)

 

C Kirk/Jansen = Kirk/Jansen (0)

1B Vlad = Vlad (0)

3B Chapman = Chapman (0)

SS Bo = Bo (0)

2B Biggio/Espinal/Katoh < Biggio/Espinal/Merrifield/Barger (+1) [deeper]

LF Gurriel << Varsho (+2)

CF Springer >> Kiermaier (-2.5)

RF Teoscar < Springer (+1.5)

4th OF Tapia < Merrifield (+0.5)

 

SP 2022 = SP 2023

 

RP 2022 = RP 2023

 

I think the rotation and pen are slightly better+deeper going into 2023 but that's splitting hairs. Like, Ryu pre-2022 would project like Bassitt pre-2023 but Bassitt is not that kind of injury risk so that's an upgrade but seems cheap to account for it.

 

So I think they might be 2 or 2.5 wins better, on balance.

 

But I think the improvements can be described in different terms. I think they have built a more diverse team that should be more resilient to bad luck or negative events. Should be more consistent?

[connorp]

Which is better team, Jays as of now or Jays as of April 1 2022

 

Even the “better” crew are saying it’s incremental. I took exception to you saying it’s a “much better team”.. which implies something more than optimistically a couple extra wins

[G-Snarls]

Even the “better” crew are saying it’s incremental. I took exception to you saying it’s a “much better team”.. which implies something more than optimistically a couple extra wins

 

Agreed

 

On a paper it's a few games better

 

Last year's team could have won 95 games

 

This year's team is more likely to

[G-Snarls]

Also managers/bench coach

 

-2 bongos

+ 1 Shneid factor

+1 facial hair

+2 sideburns

 

=

 

+2.5wins

[connorp]

Bassitt was nice, otherwise id say worse for sure. Striping would be a coon flip next year I think idk. Bassistt you know what you get as long as there’s no age decline. Which is a really solid guy pitching Game 3. Which is obviously pretty big

[Horses Fart]

Is Vlad the biggest key to success this year? He can’t have a repeat of last years hitting habits.

[G-Snarls]

This bullpen collection and management seem less likely to blow a bunch of spring games

 

AM I wrong?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Bassitt was nice, otherwise id say worse for sure. Striping would be a coon flip next year I think idk. Bassistt you know what you get as long as there’s no age decline. Which is a really solid guy pitching Game 3. Which is obviously pretty big

 

The Jays replace two OFers who combined for 3.4 WAR (4.1 projected WAR) with two OFer who combined for 5.7 WAR (4.7 projected WAR) but you'd say without Bassitt they'd be worse for sure?

 

How do you figure that?

 

Should also note that the two OFers leaving were below average corner OFers and the two coming in are above average to elite CFers

[connorp]

The Jays replace two OFers who combined for 3.4 WAR (4.1 projected WAR) with two OFer who combined for 5.7 WAR (4.7 projected WAR) but you'd say without Bassitt they'd be worse for sure?

 

How do you figure that?

 

Next year projection is what matters

[Eat My Shatkins]

Next year projection is what matters

 

Next years projections were included in my post

 

Incoming guys projected for 4.7 WAR

Outgoing guys projected for 4.1 WAR

 

So worse how?

[Jimcanuck]

Bassitt was nice, otherwise id say worse for sure. Striping would be a coon flip next year I think idk. Bassistt you know what you get as long as there’s no age decline. Which is a really solid guy pitching Game 3. Which is obviously pretty big

 

Vote in the poll

[connorp]

Next years projections were included in my post

 

Incoming guys projected for 4.7 WAR

Outgoing guys projected for 4.1 WAR

 

So worse how?

 

I never said worse. Re-read, mate. I said worse hitting and you’re quoting WAR

 

And hitting can have an outsized influence in a WC series but the debate here is regular season team I think

[Eat My Shatkins]

I never said worse. Re-read, mate. I said worse hitting and you’re quoting WAR

 

And hitting can have an outsized influence in a WC series but the debate here is regular season team I think

 

 

 

You said "Bassitt was nice, otherwise id say worse for sure."

 

That's a quote.

 

You said nothing about hitting

[connorp]

You said "Bassitt was nice, otherwise id say worse for sure."

 

That's a quote.

 

You said nothing about hitting

 

I was also thinking of it from a post-season perspective, which wasn’t the point of the poll I think.

[connorp]

Vote in the poll

 

Like elections when I don’t have a preference for either side, I just don’t vote. Probably a slightly better regular season team. If someone said 2 wins better, I would not object but not worth my vote

[Laika]

hitting can have an outsized influence in a WC series

 

You say this all the time but it’s completely made up.

 

There is nothing to show that once the playoffs start all of a sudden offense is relatively more important.

[Laika]

Things that get more important in the playoffs:

 

Front end pitching (because you shorten the rotation)

Elite relievers (because you shrink the pen)

Certain bench specialists (like pinch runners. Useless in the regular season but in certain playoff roster constructions they make sense)

[Stangstag]

This is a tough question. Do I think this roster is better now than on April 1, 2022, having seen them play out 2022? Yes.

 

But do I think the Jays are better now than what I thought on April 1? No.

 

I legit thought this was a 100 win team. Then the same BP issues propped up, Berrios took a big s***, and Guerrero was 3-4 WAR lower than where I expected him to be.

 

I expected 100+ wins in 2022 and a serious playoff run, got 92 and a sorry playoff performance instead. Now I expect around 95 wins, which is better than 2022 but lower than my expectations of the 2022 team. So there's my long winded non-answer.

 

Fair

[Stangstag]

Things that get more important in the playoffs:

 

Front end pitching (because you shorten the rotation)

Elite relievers (because you shrink the pen)

Certain bench specialists (like pinch runners. Useless in the regular season but in certain playoff roster constructions they make sense)

 

I’ve told him numerous times that his argument is dumb af but he keeps bringing it up

[Captain Adama]

Like elections when I don’t have a preference for either side, I just don’t vote. Probably a slightly better regular season team. If someone said 2 wins better, I would not object but not worth my vote

 

Pussy.

[connorp]

You say this all the time but it’s completely made up.

 

There is nothing to show that once the playoffs start all of a sudden offense is relatively more important.

 

I meant it becomes more important than say RF defense that will likely not come up in games vs the importance of the ABs

 

But on a basic practical level, yes hitting would become harder as one would assume you’re facing better pitching generally speaking. No fringe roster players, # 5 SP, pitchers pitching on short counts with max effort. More matchup specifics, etc

[connorp]

Things that get more important in the playoffs:

 

Front end pitching (because you shorten the rotation)

Elite relievers (because you shrink the pen)

Certain bench specialists (like pinch runners. Useless in the regular season but in certain playoff roster constructions they make sense)

 

I mean you literally explain why hitting is harder in your examples lol

 

You’re facing guys like Verlander and Cole at a substantially higher rate. All the playoff teams usually have most of the best pitchers etc..

[Terminator]

Things that get more important in the playoffs:

 

Front end pitching (because you shorten the rotation)

Elite relievers (because you shrink the pen)

Certain bench specialists (like pinch runners. Useless in the regular season but in certain playoff roster constructions they make sense)

 

Yeah Terrance Gore is an example of someone who isn't good enough for the regular season. He's played 110 games across the past 9 regular seasons. But he's appeared in the postseason 5 times during that same stretch.