Teo Traded to Seattle

[connorp]

You start plucking away the big marketable guys and try to replace that with guys like KK, people will tune out that much faster if it goes south

[Deadpool]

You start plucking away the big marketable guys and try to replace that with guys like KK, people will tune out that much faster if it goes south

 

And that's why we should have held on to Kawasaki forever!

[connorp]

And that's why we should have held on to Kawasaki forever!

 

That’s for zealots and chicks. Different segment. You can get them in for some games with cheap gimmicks…they aren’t watching tv though

[L54]

There’s really no way to know how the cookie is going to crumble in a few years with the big contracts looming. And how others guys will shake out. I don’t think you subtract from the 2023 team to upgrade RP. Unless you replace it. That’s the hope, they replace it. I’d imagine it’ll be a wait and see acquisition, how they pan out

 

Of course they’re going to replace it Connor. They aren’t planning on running Biggio out there full time.

 

The trade haters always fail to mention the extra 13M this move frees up to address other soft spots on the roster. There’s no question this move will allow them to be a little more creative in the players they go after. The Jays don’t have to be an offensive powerhouse with questionable pitching every year.

 

Swanson + new SP + new OF

 

Teo + new SP + new BP

 

Those are the two equations that will probably be compared to start 2023

[connorp]

Of course they’re going to replace it Connor. They aren’t planning on running Biggio out there full time.

 

The trade haters always fail to mention the extra 13M this move frees up to address other soft spots on the roster. There’s no question this move will allow them to be a little more creative in the players they go after. The Jays don’t have to be an offensive powerhouse with questionable pitching every year.

 

Swanson + new SP + new OF

 

Teo + new SP + new BP

 

Those are the two equations that will probably be compared to start 2023

 

They don’t like Biggio other than bench. No worries there. Merrifield bounce back who knows. We’ll see. I don’t think it’s a sure thing they make a move but probably

[Spanky99]

lol... Connor.

[Brownie19]

Are there any hot ones. Whenever I see news clips from it, it’s not beautiful people

 

Yeah there are some hot ones. Not a ton, but some.

[Pendleton]

Are there any hot ones. Whenever I see news clips from it, it’s not beautiful people

 

Sorry but aren't you essentially an oompa loompa who lost his green hair?

[MikeM3]

Of course they’re going to replace it Connor. They aren’t planning on running Biggio out there full time.

 

The trade haters always fail to mention the extra 13M this move frees up to address other soft spots on the roster. There’s no question this move will allow them to be a little more creative in the players they go after. The Jays don’t have to be an offensive powerhouse with questionable pitching every year.

 

Swanson + new SP + new OF

 

Teo + new SP + new BP

 

Those are the two equations that will probably be compared to start 2023

 

Well you'll never get a guy like Teo from free agency for 1/13 or whatever his salary projects at. Like ya, you can sign Nimmo with some of that money but you're going 5 years long and way higher AAV. Teo can give you 4 wins next year on a 1 year deal. It's very unlikely we replace that production at that term.

 

You can easily hand out a Kikuchi contract and Swanson loses 1 tick and he's dog s***, and you just cost yourself 3-4 wins in a blink of an eye. Teo is a pretty solid bet to hit next year. His track record has been surprisingly steady.

[Dick_Pole]

I like how Hernandez supporters/haters of the trade round up his expected WAR up to 4 when he did that once in his career, got to 2.4 for 2022 and is projected about that much for 2023. Can he get to 4 WAR in 2023? Sure. Just like Guerrero could get back over 6 WAR and replace Hernandez's missed production all by himself.

 

If you like or hate the trade, at least do so based on actual projections for the players involved*. If I had to guess whether Hernandez beats or misses projections, my guess is that he misses. One year older and replacing AL East parks with AL West ones is not conducive for success for someone of his skillset.

 

*Yeah I know some Bellinger supporters say he *could* get to this and that fantasy upside numbers which would look like an absolute steal. But even in the base case scenario, around 1.5 WAR for a one year flier contract - that's not a bad outcome since he can temporarily fill an outfield defensive shortage.

[connorp]

I like how Hernandez supporters/haters of the trade round up his expected WAR up to 4 when he did that once in his career, got to 2.4 for 2022 and is projected about that much for 2023. Can he get to 4 WAR in 2023? Sure. Just like Guerrero could get back over 6 WAR and replace Hernandez's missed production all by himself.

 

If you like or hate the trade, at least do so based on actual projections for the players involved*. If I had to guess whether Hernandez beats or misses projections, my guess is that he misses. One year older and replacing AL East parks with AL West ones is not conducive for success for someone of his skillset.

 

*Yeah I know some Bellinger supporters say he *could* get to this and that fantasy upside numbers which would look like an absolute steal. But even in the base case scenario, around 1.5 WAR for a one year flier contract - that's not a bad outcome since he can temporarily fill an outfield defensive shortage.

 

Many things you can take away what you want. Over the last 3 seasons, Teo 8.2 Wins in 324 games. So I’m not going to do further math but that’s maybe a tiny hair under 4 Wins/150?

 

And again, last season he had a really bad stretch coming back from the injury, when he had started out the year good

[Brownie19]

Many things you can take away what you want. Over the last 3 seasons, Teo 8.2 Wins in 324 games. So I’m not going to do further math but that’s maybe a tiny hair under 4 Wins/150?

 

And again, last season he had a really bad stretch coming back from the injury, when he had started out the year good

 

You're as stubborn as Grant FFS.

[Omar]

Hernandez supporters =/= haters of the trade

[Laika]

Many things you can take away what you want. Over the last 3 seasons, Teo 8.2 Wins in 324 games. So I’m not going to do further math but that’s maybe a tiny hair under 4 Wins/150?

 

And again, last season he had a really bad stretch coming back from the injury, when he had started out the year good

 

Just to be fair and objective... you make a good point here. Teo was great in 2021 and 2020. Slipped back a bit in 2022 but in most months he was great in 2022.

[Jimcanuck]

Many things you can take away what you want. Over the last 3 seasons, Teo 8.2 Wins in 324 games. So I’m not going to do further math but that’s maybe a tiny hair under 4 Wins/150?

 

And again, last season he had a really bad stretch coming back from the injury, when he had started out the year good

 

Using the more less volatile time interval of the last 4 seasons is more accurate. 2021 was Teoscar's career year.

 

Last 4 years 9.5 WAR in 449 games = 3.2 WAR / yr. He's Steamer projected for 2.1 WAR in 2023 based on his history and aging curves.

 

Realistically Teoscar will fall between 2 and 3 WAR in 2023.

[connorp]

Using the more less volatile time interval of the last 4 seasons is more accurate. 2021 was Teoscar's career year.

 

Last 4 years 9.5 WAR in 449 games = 3.2 WAR / yr. He's Steamer projected for 2.1 WAR in 2023 based on his history and aging curves.

 

Realistically Teoscar will fall between 2 and 3 WAR in 2023.

 

Do you think Seattle makes the move if they grade him as a 2 Win player? Or maybe you should send them a link to your data, maybe they can take it back if the physical hasn’t taken place

[connorp]

You're as stubborn as Grant FFS.

 

Bro. You know how many times the board has celebrated a trade or signing and it was s***? I applauded Kooch signing for the upside. You should never just think your opinion is gospel in these matters..

[John_Havok]

Do you think Seattle makes the move if they grade him as a 2 Win player? Or maybe you should send them a link to your data, maybe they can take it back if the physical hasn’t taken place

 

No, thye make the move thinking he's a 2 win floor player, with 4+ win upside. There's no way they go into the trade seeing Teo as a 4+ WAR projection.

[connorp]

No, thye make the move thinking he's a 2 win floor player, with 4+ win upside. There's no way they go into the trade seeing Teo as a 4+ WAR projection.

 

I’m not sure upside is the proper terminology when someone has averaged about that over the last 3 years. I think you’d say they’re betting he won’t regress, or wasn’t a fluke. It’s not chasing upside

 

Jays are the chase upside type and there’s nothing wrong with that. This deal wasn’t that for SEA

[John_Havok]

I’m not sure upside is the proper terminology when someone has averaged about that over the last 3 years. I think you’d say they’re betting he won’t regress, or wasn’t a fluke. It’s not chasing upside

 

Jays are the chase upside type and there’s nothing wrong with that. This deal wasn’t that for SEA

 

There are no projection system out there that has Teo as a 4+ win player in 2023. If Seattle has their own internal one that does, i'd love to see it's rationale. simply taking the average WAR of someone's past 3 years is not a projection system that holds any merit.

[Jimcanuck]

I’m not sure upside is the proper terminology when someone has averaged about that over the last 3 years. I think you’d say they’re betting he won’t regress, or wasn’t a fluke. It’s not chasing upside

 

Jays are the chase upside type and there’s nothing wrong with that. This deal wasn’t that for SEA

 

You post as if you have insider knowledge. You know nothing about the inner workings and calculus of Toronto and Seattle.

[The Cats Ass]

I’m not sure upside is the proper terminology when someone has averaged about that over the last 3 years. I think you’d say they’re betting he won’t regress, or wasn’t a fluke. It’s not chasing upside

 

Jays are the chase upside type and there’s nothing wrong with that. This deal wasn’t that for SEA

 

He's been in decline since his 2020 breakout. Which also happened to be the age that's seen as "prime". His floor is more like 1 WAR, ceiling might possibly be 3-3.5. There's a reason Steamer has him at 2.1 WAR.

[Stangstag]

Hernandez supporters =/= haters of the trade

 

This.

[Stangstag]

There are no projection system out there that has Teo as a 4+ win player in 2023. If Seattle has their own internal one that does, i'd love to see it's rationale. simply taking the average WAR of someone's past 3 years is not a projection system that holds any merit.

 

Projections have been wrong on Teo every single year since 2019

[John_Havok]

Projections have been wrong on Teo every single year since 2019

 

Projections are never perfect for any player. But they're generally pretty correct for most.

[Stangstag]

He's been in decline since his 2020 breakout. Which also happened to be the age that's seen as "prime". His floor is more like 1 WAR, ceiling might possibly be 3-3.5. There's a reason Steamer has him at 2.1 WAR.

 

Has he though?

 

If you take a closer look at his 2022 numbers/splits and look at his injuries this year, they line up with his stretches of being unable to hit the ball. His 2022 was closer to 2020 than you think….

 

Now that being said I would not be surprised if he has some type of injury again in 2022. Question is do the Mariners rush him back like the jays did.

[connorp]

You post as if you have insider knowledge. You know nothing about the inner workings and calculus of Toronto and Seattle.

 

So I’ll just go with your homer logic. Seattle had this possible lock down closer and intriguing prospect just burning a hole in their pocket, so they decided to trade all that future value for a declining Corner OF worth 2 wins. They liked his smile

[Stangstag]

Projections are never perfect for any player. But they're generally pretty correct for most.

 

They’ve consistently been incorrect on Teo is all im saying.

[John_Havok]

They’ve consistently been incorrect on Teo is all im saying.

 

That's a very meaningless statement unless you can point to some flaw in the projection systems that only seems to impact Teoscar, or players just like him.

 

For example, RA DIckey generally outperformed projections and systems regularly because those systems can't account for unicorns. Teoscar is not a unicron kind of hitter.

[Stangstag]

That's a very meaningless statement.

 

Ok cool