Would you fire Atkins

[Laika]

The Jays made the playoffs in 2020 and were close in 2021.

The core is getting expensive already.

 

This right here is the payroll Rogers is willing to put out there. Roughly 10th in the league. Don't expect any more. The whole "they'll spend more when it's time" thing already happened; that money is on the books NOW.

[connorp]

Like, I'm sorry connor I know you think you have a slam dunk point here but it's probably just absolutely retarded to make big moves for relievers. Historrrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy proooooooooooooooooooves it

 

I’m not making any bold thing here, I think most agree we need one more shut down BP guy. You either develop it, which Jays haven’t. Or you buy it, or trade for it.

 

Santos didn’t work out, but neither did Molina. Can’t say it wasn’t worth the try.

[Krylian]

How many bold closer / shutdown RP acquisitions have occurred in Blue Jays history?

 

How many of those have worked out?

 

Santos was a bust. BJ Ryan contract did not work out. Randy Myers was a bust.

 

The only one I can think of that worked out was Duane Ward, who I mostly think of as a developed player but apparently Toronto traded an old buy good Doyle Alexander for him during Ward's rookie year.

 

All relievers are failed starters. The trick is to find the failed starter, before they develop into that high end reliever. Yes, that's easier said than done, but that's why Ross is in the GM chair.

[Laika]

All relievers are failed starters. The trick is to find the failed starter, before they develop into that high end reliever. Yes, that's easier said than done, but that's why Ross is in the GM chair.

 

This is why I was mad Pearson was getting stretched out this year.

And why I was mad years ago that the org let Aaron Sanchez be a s***** starter for so long.

 

There is an art to pulling the plug on SPs and just throwing them into the pen. Sometimes teams hold onto the SP dream for too long...

[Olerud363]

How many bold closer / shutdown RP acquisitions have occurred in Blue Jays history?

 

How many of those have worked out?

 

Santos was a bust. BJ Ryan contract did not work out. Randy Myers was a bust.

 

The only one I can think of that worked out was Duane Ward, who I mostly think of as a developed player but apparently Toronto traded an old buy good Doyle Alexander for him during Ward's rookie year.

 

How many Jays minor leaguers have the same percentage chance of being a decent reliever as Roberto Osuna did? In 2015

 

Jays tried a Brett Cecil as closer

Gave up after he blew like... 1 game?

Tied 20 year old Castro as closer

Gave up after he blew a game or 2

Tried 20 year old Osuna as closer -- worked

 

Tried Norris and Sanchez as starters

didn't work

Tried Sanchez as setup man -- worked

 

Tried Pompey as center fielder

didn't work

Tried Pillar as center fielder -- worked

Tried Travis as second basemen -- worked but got injured

Tried Goins as second basemen -- worked (that year)

 

What would be the 2022 version of this? Trying Barger, Lopez, Capra as something, and then trying the top 3 pitching prospects in bullpen roles. Or if you didn't want that with Tiedermann, trying all the non-Tiedermann's in bullpen roles.

 

Would you get as good a success rate as in 2015?

[jaysblue]

All relievers are failed starters. The trick is to find the failed starter, before they develop into that high end reliever. Yes, that's easier said than done, but that's why Ross is in the GM chair.

 

I agree. Look at some of the Jays top relievers under JPR and AA regimes and even Atkins. Some of these guys were starters in the minors as well. Here are some names off the top of my head. If I forgot anyone, sorry.

 

- Casey Janssen

- Brett Cecil

- Scott Downs

- Jason Frasor

- Jordan Romano

- Liam Hendriks

- Roberto Osuna

- Marc Rzepczynski

- Brandon League

- Joe Biagini

 

It is easier said than done, but most of those arms I listed are from the JPR and AA regimes. Not many successes under Atkins and company. Some of those arms you can develop from within the organization and you can also acquire/target those arms outside of an organization which is what we saw under the JPR and AA regimes.

 

Ideally, would be nice if Pearson and Merryweather turn out to be bullpen successes and elite arms, which helps greatly. Though we're at a point now heading in 2023 where you can't just throw all your eggs in one basket and hope that Pearson is your bullpen saviour and answer. Hope they do a better job at targeting arms outside of their organization and also do a better job with arms within their organization.

[jaysblue]

How many bold closer / shutdown RP acquisitions have occurred in Blue Jays history?

 

How many of those have worked out?

 

Santos was a bust. BJ Ryan contract did not work out. Randy Myers was a bust.

 

The only one I can think of that worked out was Duane Ward, who I mostly think of as a developed player but apparently Toronto traded an old buy good Doyle Alexander for him during Ward's rookie year.

 

Yeah majority of the time, spending millions and millions on several bullpen arms during an offseason doesn't work and backfires. Ideally, you hope the Jays could develop another elite arm or two out of the pen. Though given this teams window and lack of success up to this point, I don't think it hurts going out and spending money on a guy like Edwin Diaz as one of the final pieces to the puzzle to take this team to the next level. The Jays don't need to go out and sign like 4-5 bullpen arms and spend like close to $8-10 million each on them. Someone like Diaz complements this group very well. And you hope you get lucky with one of Pearson or Merryweather, the Blue Jays are in better shape after.

 

The BJ Ryan contract didn't work out long term agreed, though lets say his 2006 season, which was freakin' amazing - imagine if the Jays 2022 roster had an arm like him down in the pen this season or even in 2021? Obviously not saying it's a guarantee the Jays win the World Series, though definitely gives them a better chance at going deeper into the Postseason where anything can happen after. If Diaz can fill that same role in 2023 as Ryan did with the Jays in 2006, I'm all for it. It makes sense when you have a team with a solid core already in place like the Blue Jays do.

[jaysblue]

so many posts just to boil down the simple truth about Atkins - he's built a very solid foundation, made some small adjustments to that, and now needs to do the hard part; taking a perennial 90+ win playoff team to the next level. That's way harder to do than the first part, costs more money, involves more risk and only results in small incremental improvements.

 

90% of his job has been done and done very well. The last 10% is what separates a good GM from a great one - and even then doesnt guarantee a WS

 

You summarized it perfectly.

 

Atkins has built a solid foundation. I think most of us rational posters agree with that. He needs to take this 90-win team to the next level and turn it into a 100-win team that can go on a deep Postseason run, which yes can be the hardest part and something he hasn't had success with yet. 2023 is very important given its your last season with Teo and Chapman under contract, along with some veterans getting older and some of your younger talent will start becoming more expensive afterwards.

 

I agree, it definitely involves more risk. Signing an elite BP arm like Edwin Diaz comes with way more risk than spending that money on someone else, though what does this team need? Everything else is pretty much in place from a foundation perspective in terms of the main pieces in the lineup and rotation. Some small moves and improvements will still have to be made such as improving the roster depth, though it's not like the Jays are a 70 win team trying to sign an elite BP arm.

[jaysblue]

Since we're talking about failed starters turning into relievers, I would seriously give someone like Matt Moore a look this offseason (10.09 K/9 and 1.1 WAR). His BB/9 is pretty high at 4.62 but if he improves on that, I think he can be a huge weapon out of a bullpen.

 

As a reclamation project, would see if Matthew Boyd would consider pitching mainly out of the pen and would also take a flier on Shelby Miller.

 

Kikuchi could also be intriguing, but you're paying him $16 million haha. Pearson and Merryweather hopefully can make the transition and be successful.

[Brownie19]

I agree. Look at some of the Jays top relievers under JPR and AA regimes and even Atkins. Some of these guys were starters in the minors as well. Here are some names off the top of my head. If I forgot anyone, sorry.

 

- Casey Janssen

- Brett Cecil

- Scott Downs

- Jason Frasor

- Jordan Romano

- Liam Hendriks

- Roberto Osuna

- Marc Rzepczynski

- Brandon League

- Joe Biagini

 

It is easier said than done, but most of those arms I listed are from the JPR and AA regimes. Not many successes under Atkins and company. Some of those arms you can develop from within the organization and you can also acquire/target those arms outside of an organization which is what we saw under the JPR and AA regimes.

 

Ideally, would be nice if Pearson and Merryweather turn out to be bullpen successes and elite arms, which helps greatly. Though we're at a point now heading in 2023 where you can't just throw all your eggs in one basket and hope that Pearson is your bullpen saviour and answer. Hope they do a better job at targeting arms outside of their organization and also do a better job with arms within their organization.

 

Sorry man, but I can make a very similar list of guys who were good out of the pen from the Shatkins era. I guess you're listing Romano under the AA era because he was drafted in 2013? He certainly didn't pitch for the Jays until well after the end of the AA era though, so I'll leave him (and Mayza) out?

 

Giles

Seunghwan Oh

Joe Smith

Dominic Leone

Cimber

Garcia

Bass

Phelps

Dolis

D. Hudson

Clippard

 

These guys all gave up quality innings out of the pen for at least 1 season.

[jaysblue]

Sorry man, but I can make a very similar list of guys who were good out of the pen from the Shatkins era. I guess you're listing Romano under the AA era because he was drafted in 2013? He certainly didn't pitch for the Jays until well after the end of the AA era though, so I'll leave him (and Mayza) out?

 

Giles

Seunghwan Oh

Joe Smith

Dominic Leone

Cimber

Garcia

Bass

Phelps

Dolis

D. Hudson

Clippard

 

These guys all gave up quality innings out of the pen for at least 1 season.

 

I'm talking about guys who were failed starters either in the minors or MLB level.

 

Maybe some of those guys you listed started in the minors at some point, so forgive me that I never went back to check on those arms. Though yes, those arms you listed for sure provided quality innings out of the pen for at least one season.

 

Completely forgot about Daniel Hudson. Great example right there, even if he was traded at the deadline after in 2019. Health was his major concern, though he was an elite bullpen arm when healthy.

 

Romano I was listing under the Atkins era actually. He was a failed starter in the minors in the AA era, though Atkins and co. decided and worked with him on becoming a BP arm. So I give Atkins the credit on Romano.

[Brownie19]

I'm talking about guys who were failed starters either in the minors or MLB level.

 

Maybe some of those guys you listed started in the minors at some point, so forgive me that I never went back to check on those arms. Though yes, those arms you listed for sure provided quality innings out of the pen for at least one season.

 

Completely forgot about Daniel Hudson. Great example right there, even if he was traded at the deadline after in 2019. Health was his major concern, though he was an elite bullpen arm when healthy.

 

Romano I was listing under the Atkins era actually. He was a failed starter in the minors in the AA era, though Atkins and co. decided and worked with him on becoming a BP arm. So I give Atkins the credit on Romano.

 

Oh - well you have me confused because guys like Frasor and League never started. Hudson, Dolis, Bass, Phelps and Clippard are all failed starters for what it's worth. As Krylian pointed out - most relivers are unless they get gimmick guys like Joe Smith and Cimber.

[connorp]

Sorry man, but I can make a very similar list of guys who were good out of the pen from the Shatkins era. I guess you're listing Romano under the AA era because he was drafted in 2013? He certainly didn't pitch for the Jays until well after the end of the AA era though, so I'll leave him (and Mayza) out?

 

Giles

Seunghwan Oh

Joe Smith

Dominic Leone

Cimber

Garcia

Bass

Phelps

Dolis

D. Hudson

Clippard

 

These guys all gave up quality innings out of the pen for at least 1 season.

 

No doubt there’s been some positive improvements, even recently with guys like Bass and Pop.

But we’re talking someone you have a good amount of confidence in the 8th or 9th inning, or even earlier with a slim lead playoff time. Someone like Bass isn’t that guy even if he’s a quality BP arm.

 

As mentioned, that’s just a piece you need to find as a title contender. It’s not so important to a team built for the regular season chasing a WC

[connorp]

I mean of course you don’t technically NEED it, but now this is literally after 3 years of coming up short for it.. 3 years ago using a journeyman RP that would be in the minors the next year in a tie game late inning playoff spot, 2 years ago missing the playoffs entirely, and this year where having that guy probably would’ve extended their postseason

[connorp]

You don’t know what the outcome would’ve been of course even with that guy, but you can say you addressed it and than chalk it up to randomness

 

You can’t ignore the need and than be like “randomness”

[Jimcanuck]

You don’t know what the outcome would’ve been of course even with that guy, but you can say you addressed it and than chalk it up to randomness

 

You can’t ignore the need and than be like “randomness”

 

I don't think anyone is saying there is no need to improve the bullpen. Or SP depth, or 4th OF, or....

 

Jays have a number of potential good pitching prospects on the farm on the cusp of MLB, that could become high value RP. This is something they haven't really had the past few years. This sort of tells me that Atkins is ahead of us all in terms of putting forward a WS winner before Vlad/Bo free agency.

[Brownie19]

No doubt there’s been some positive improvements, even recently with guys like Bass and Pop.

But we’re talking someone you have a good amount of confidence in the 8th or 9th inning, or even earlier with a slim lead playoff time. Someone like Bass isn’t that guy even if he’s a quality BP arm.

 

As mentioned, that’s just a piece you need to find as a title contender. It’s not so important to a team built for the regular season chasing a WC

 

That's actually not what jaysblue and I are talking about at all. I misinterpreted what he was originally saying, which was that AA/JPR seemed to be better at turning failed starters into good bullpen arms (I thought he just meant they were better at finding quality bullpen arms). His list wasn't littered with tons of guys you'd want pitching in the 8th inning of a playoff game either.

 

That said - Bass has a fantastic year. 1.54 ERA, 1.3 WAR, 9+ K/9. The Yankees were using Wandy Peralta in the 8th and 9th last night to close out the win. Phillies used Eflin close out Game 1. LA used Graterol in the 8th last night. You think they're way better than Bass?

[Ray]

Atkins has done a lot of good, and I feel fine about him going forward as GM, but it's really disappointing to see the lack of homegrown pitching in his 7-year tenure, especially considering the org he was coming from has had fantastic pitching development. It's unfair to have the GM shoulder the blame alone. There's a lot that goes into pitching development including having good drafts, the right player development methodologies, good training staff, analytics, technological infrastructure, and some level of good luck. It takes a village for sure, but our record with developing pitchers is so dismal when you zoom in:

 

Failure(s)/didn't pan out:

 

- TJ Zeuch

- Ryan Borucki

- Anthony Kay

- Thomas Hatch

- Bowden Francis

- Patrick Murphy

- Jacob Waguespack

- Sean Reid-Foley

- Trent Thornton

- Hector Perez

- David Paulino

 

 

TBD/still some hope:

- Nate Pearson

- Julian Merryweather

 

Success stories:

 

- Tim Mayza

- Jordan Romano

- Alek Manoah

 

Maybe if you play the percentages and compare it to other orgs, we are comparable. But to have 3 real homegrown success stories on the pitching side the last 7 years seems like a really bad track record. There is very clearly a proven process with developing pitchers that works as evidenced by the Rays, Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Guardians who churn out key members of rotations/bullpens every year. Our process in identifying and developing pitchers seems to be broken somewhere.

[RobinThicc]

Atkins admitted that they havent done a great job developing high velocity, high strikeout guys in his press conference when someone asked about it.

[Laika]

Atkins has done a lot of good, and I feel fine about him going forward as GM, but it's really disappointing to see the lack of homegrown pitching in his 7-year tenure, especially considering the org he was coming from has had fantastic pitching development. It's unfair to have the GM shoulder the blame alone. There's a lot that goes into pitching development including having good drafts, the right player development methodologies, good training staff, analytics, technological infrastructure, and some level of good luck. It takes a village for sure, but our record with developing pitchers is so dismal when you zoom in:

 

Failure(s)/didn't pan out:

 

- TJ Zeuch

- Ryan Borucki

- Anthony Kay

- Thomas Hatch

- Bowden Francis

- Patrick Murphy

- Jacob Waguespack

- Sean Reid-Foley

- Trent Thornton

- Hector Perez

- David Paulino

 

 

TBD/still some hope:

- Nate Pearson

- Julian Merryweather

 

Success stories:

 

- Tim Mayza

- Jordan Romano

- Alek Manoah

 

Maybe if you play the percentages and compare it to other orgs, we are comparable. But to have 3 real homegrown success stories on the pitching side the last 7 years seems like a really bad track record. There is very clearly a proven process with developing pitchers that works as evidenced by the Rays, Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Guardians who churn out key members of rotations/bullpens every year. Our process in identifying and developing pitchers seems to be broken somewhere.

 

One thing to note is that all of those teams tend to have slightly unique approaches to pitching dev.

 

Rays = market inefficiency demons, always hunting undervalued arms or unique arms

Guardians = do this weird thing now where they target college pitchers, draft them at good value, and then make them better

Yankees and Dodgers = wield their oversized treasuries to buy assets/talent and employ other humans to shape/develop the humans they own

Astros = really good at being on the cutting edge of pitching theory. and at cheating.

 

Toronto needs to find a niche....

[jaysblue]

Oh - well you have me confused because guys like Frasor and League never started. Hudson, Dolis, Bass, Phelps and Clippard are all failed starters for what it's worth. As Krylian pointed out - most relivers are unless they get gimmick guys like Joe Smith and Cimber.

 

Frasor and League were starters in the minors, no? Frasor started some games in the Dodgers organization I recall.

[connorp]

That's actually not what jaysblue and I are talking about at all. I misinterpreted what he was originally saying, which was that AA/JPR seemed to be better at turning failed starters into good bullpen arms (I thought he just meant they were better at finding quality bullpen arms). His list wasn't littered with tons of guys you'd want pitching in the 8th inning of a playoff game either.

 

That said - Bass has a fantastic year. 1.54 ERA, 1.3 WAR, 9+ K/9. The Yankees were using Wandy Peralta in the 8th and 9th last night to close out the win. Phillies used Eflin close out Game 1. LA used Graterol in the 8th last night. You think they're way better than Bass?

 

Yeah I was making a separate point actually.

 

Anyways, I think I touched on the fact that there’s nothing written that says you NEED that. It’s just, when for 3 straight years it’s been a failure because of BO failures, it’s hard to ignore it.

[Brownie19]

Frasor and League were starters in the minors, no? Frasor started some games in the Dodgers organization I recall.

 

Oh - yes, Frasor started back in A and A+ ball. LA moved him to the pen before he came to TO. Looks like they converted League to the pen in AA ball also. Sorry, the FG page didn't show much for these 2. Neither lasted that long as a starter though.

[jaysblue]

That's actually not what jaysblue and I are talking about at all. I misinterpreted what he was originally saying, which was that AA/JPR seemed to be better at turning failed starters into good bullpen arms (I thought he just meant they were better at finding quality bullpen arms). His list wasn't littered with tons of guys you'd want pitching in the 8th inning of a playoff game either.

 

That said - Bass has a fantastic year. 1.54 ERA, 1.3 WAR, 9+ K/9. The Yankees were using Wandy Peralta in the 8th and 9th last night to close out the win. Phillies used Eflin close out Game 1. LA used Graterol in the 8th last night. You think they're way better than Bass?

 

Roberto Osuna

Aaron Sanchez (in 2015)

Scott Downs (was one of the most consistent and reliable late inning relievers for the Jays)

Casey Janssen

Liam Hendriks

Brett Cecil

 

I would say those guys were pretty darn solid pitching in the 8th or 9th inning when they did for the Blue Jays.

[jaysblue]

Oh - yes, Frasor started back in A and A+ ball. LA moved him to the pen before he came to TO. Looks like they converted League to the pen in AA ball also. Sorry, the FG page didn't show much for these 2. Neither lasted that long as a starter though.

 

Yeah they were starters for a very short time. Frasor had some good years and some bad years here, was mixed. League was solid in 2006 and 2009, otherwise couldn't stay healthy and was a disappointment. Can't believe with the stuff he had, his K rate was pretty low and never amounted to much.

[wilko]

Yeah they were starters for a very short time. Frasor had some good years and some bad years here, was mixed. League was solid in 2006 and 2009, otherwise couldn't stay healthy and was a disappointment. Can't believe with the stuff he had, his K rate was pretty low and never amounted to much.

 

I remember his fastball getting at 100+ mph but was pretty flat without much movement.

[jaysblue]

Bass since traded to the Jays:

 

25.2 innings, 9.82 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 1.75 HR/9, 1.75 ERA, 4.63 FIP and -0.1 WAR

 

He still had a very solid year overall, though he was far from being an elite shutdown reliever for the Jays over the final two months.

[Stangstag]

Bass since traded to the Jays:

 

 

25.2 innings, 9.82 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 1.75 HR/9, 1.75 ERA, 4.63 FIP and -0.1 WAR

 

He still had a very solid year overall, though he was far from being an elite shutdown reliever for the Jays over the final two months.

 

Yeah just off the top of my head, he had a rough end to the season. Same with Mayza. Unfortunately seems most of our bullpen was struggling towards the end and ultimately that’s what sunk us.

 

Just try to add another arm or two and hope the bullpen is better next year. And we desperately need innings from the back end of the rotation to keep the BP fresh. All those Mitch White starts in the last couple weeks might have f***ed us

[Terminator]

Yeah right now with just Manoah, Gausman and Berrios set in the rotation we really need two starting pitchers. I think White and Kikuchi should stretch out in spring training but ultimately start in the bullpen and then can move to SP roles if needed. Lucky for the Jays there is a ton of older pitchers who will be looking at short term deals this offseason. We could also look to acquire one by trading Jansen.

 

As for the bullpen I think we really only need one decent late inning guy and then some lotto tickets.

[jaysblue]

Yeah right now with just Manoah, Gausman and Berrios set in the rotation we really need two starting pitchers. I think White and Kikuchi should stretch out in spring training but ultimately start in the bullpen and then can move to SP roles if needed. Lucky for the Jays there is a ton of older pitchers who will be looking at short term deals this offseason. We could also look to acquire one by trading Jansen.

 

As for the bullpen I think we really only need one decent late inning guy and then some lotto tickets.

 

Agree with everything you said.

 

Gausman, Manoah, and Berrios are locked in the rotation for sure. I prefer having Kikuchi and White stretched out and keep them around for depth purposes if someone goes down with an injury. Same with Tiedemann. There are a lot of decent solid mid-rotation starters available via free agency, and like you said could probably be acquired on a one-year deal. As well, could always acquire a SP by trading Jansen. Though for sure, I think the Blue Jays need to acquire two starters.

 

As for the bullpen, I've been saying this most of the season, they need one more elite late inning bullpen arm to pair with Romano. Some lotto tickets like Shelby Miller wouldn't hurt as well and I would move Pearson to the BP full time.