Would you fire Atkins

[bluejaysinternNo5]

These guys are all vetted on things like Will, Skill, and Values even before they are drafted. Of course things could change but unlikely once in they are in the Org in the incubation phase of their pro career. Vladdy and Bo are solid.

 

In terms of bullpen, as I wrote in the other thread I don't think Atkins will be looking to overhaul it next year. If you look at our pen with an indifferent eye we were one solid late inning arm from success. I think Atkins will look to get that one arm wherein he can knock everyone below Romano down a slot in the pegging order. In a different reality Pearson could have been our setup guy in 2022 and this would not be a hot button topic.

 

They are vetted on their make up but how much can you really tell about a person before they are thrown into the fire and tested in the most competitive environment on the planet? I don't have questions about Bo, especially after working through such a disappointing start to the season and finishing with a blistering September, but it's hard not to wonder sometimes. Maybe it is nothing. I don't know.

[Terminator]

Bro, they missed out on the playoffs 2 years ago by one game. You’re telling me Brad Hand didn’t have part in maybe losing one more game than they should’ve if they got someone better? Berrios deal was horrendous this year. Do you think you slide on that because the “process was ok”. No. You better make up for that f*** up.

 

Funny you mention Brad Hand. He was a deadline acquisition who since becoming a reliever 7 years ago has had an ERA of 3.38 or less in every season if you exclude his brief 8 inning stint as a Blue Jays where he had a 7.27 ERA. After we released him he signed with the Mets for the rest of the year and went back to being good again. Relievers are fickle and spending big trade assets for them is risky.

[connorp]

Funny you mention Brad Hand. He was a deadline acquisition who since becoming a reliever 7 years ago has had an ERA of 3.38 or less in every season if you exclude his brief 8 inning stint as a Blue Jays where he had a 7.27 ERA. After we released him he signed with the Mets for the rest of the year and went back to being good again. Relievers are fickle and spending big trade assets for them is risky.

 

And as this board often said “Berrios is one of the best SP in baseball”. Pro sports is results. Process is good for getting another job after you get fired. There’s stages and expectations for teams. Wild Card and two game sweep wasn’t a good result

 

They thought they didn’t need any major upgrade at the deadline, not worth paying for. Gotta except the result.

[connorp]

And Brad Hand was in the middle of a clear down year. They tried the thrifty route, buy low big reward. Didn’t work out. Let’s paint that for what it was

 

Nobody was excited about it. Some were even upset an org guy was given for him. Not a high leverage guy for the AL East.

[connorp]

Haha. Not worth a bump but the OT of the signing the bast majority are like “meh” or it was bad… Laila is all like “sneaky good signing” lol

[connorp]

Just made other “C” trades again this year that didn’t make any difference whether it was playoff team or not, and couldn’t make a positive contribution when they needed to in the playoffs.

 

Would you really be shocked if Bass is just “ok at best” next year if he’s used in higher leverage

 

I’m happy to bump next year

[Sorrow]

I'd keep him. He's built a good team and I like the drafting he's done, the trading of prospects before they bust. I can't think of a single prospect he's traded who's actually done anything.

 

I don't blame the loss on him. Mayza and Bass were f***ing brutal, players need to actually perform. I do think he needs to address the swing and miss in the bullpen. I don't know how much was out there that the team was interested in but they couldn't sign do the vaccine requirements at this time. I'm willing to give him another season.

[Laika]

Just made other “C” trades again this year that didn’t make any difference whether it was playoff team or not, and couldn’t make a positive contribution when they needed to in the playoffs.

 

Would you really be shocked if Bass is just “ok at best” next year if he’s used in higher leverage

 

I’m happy to bump next year

 

I feel like you should just say Rogers is cheap and should run a top 5 payroll

 

Because if they are going to hover closer to 10th, or whatever they were this year, then they have to try to make value moves somewhere on the roster.

[connorp]

I feel like you should just say Rogers is cheap and should run a top 5 payroll

 

Because if they are going to hover closer to 10th, or whatever they were this year, then they have to try to make value moves somewhere on the roster.

 

Sure I may think that all things considered. But there’s still other ways to skin a cat. They sat on Pearson’s value and lost. They traded at a good time with Martin but they bet on the wrong horse for now at least. Could they make the same mistake with Moreno, possible. All those things should be factored in as they develop

[Spanky__99]

Actually yes Robertson doesn’t look that great. I was going off Spanky and that was a mistake.

I’m still of them opinion that while paying “closer” money for an RP is not “smart”, it becomes necessarily at a certain level unless you have the homegrown talent where you don’t need it. Jays aren’t in that spot.

 

What are you talking about Baldilocks? I said Bass was the best reliever available and "You" brought up Robertson, I wanted the Jays to add him as well. It obviously didn't happen. I mean the guy was traded 2 minutes before the deadline, they were likely asking too much and caved, although Ben Brown was a decent get by the Cubbies... there's other metrics to look at for relievers like, WPA/RE24/SIERA, etc... don't lie, you're just simply a moron.

[Spanky__99]

I personally believe that the key to long extended windows is your ability to develop pitching… and i think we are somewhere in the middle band of teams at that.. and thats on Atkins.. probably.

 

But, we won over 90 games two years in a row and they have done fantastic on the hitting side. So, no i wouldnt fire him. Id ask him to get better at the pitching side via hires or investment or whatever.

 

You could fire him and it could get worse. I think a better front office would extend our window out a few years more, but this FO is competing now.. so seems like a bad idea to disrupt it too much.

 

A few years ago, the yankees rejiggered their pitching set up. They didnt fire cashman. Im fine with that approach.

 

I'm also of thought the Jays have certainly turned already in that direction, with the Dunedin facility etc... just haven't seen the fruit of that yet. The last wave of arms have blown up spectacularly so I've always understood your gripe with the development on the pitching side, it's a valiant point and should be discussed. Glad you're back posting again.

[connorp]

What are you talking about Baldilocks? I said Bass was the best reliever available and "You" brought up Robertson, I wanted the Jays to add him as well. It obviously didn't happen. I mean the guy was traded 2 minutes before the deadline, they were likely asking too much and caved, although Ben Brown was a decent get by the Cubbies... there's other metrics to look at for relievers like, WPA/RE24/SIERA, etc... don't lie, you're just simply a moron.

 

Jason Frasor >> Anthony Bass

 

Neither were/are significant to a championship BP.

[Spanky__99]

I kind of feel the Blue Jays got extremely lucky winning the top Wildcard seed.

 

When you consider their thin rotation: imagine if Gausman or Manoah missed significant time? You could have kissed the Postseason goodbye!

 

Imagine if the Jays lost Romano and/or someone like Bass/Garcia/Cimber, this bullpen would be a complete disaster.

 

The Jays actually were lucky none of their main guys got hurt and missed significant time. But since we're talking about "randomness" we've seen injuries happen over a 162 game season. The Jays would have been caught with their pants down.

 

The bullpen was a middle of the pack pen from Day One, not a bullpen that you would feel confident with to make a deep Postseason push.

 

This front office needs to do a better job at addressing these areas during the offseason. Again, given the talented core this team already has in place, upgrading the bullpen should be icing on the cake.

 

lol... what am I reading??? Dude, you smoked a blunt before this post.

[connorp]

lol... what am I reading??? Dude, you smoked a blunt before this post.

 

Wrong wrong in there Mr. Jester?

[Spanky__99]

Jason Frasor >> Anthony Bass

 

Neither were/are significant to a championship BP.

 

Wrong wrong in there Mr. Jester?

 

[Spanky__99]

These guys are all vetted on things like Will, Skill, and Values even before they are drafted. Of course things could change but unlikely once in they are in the Org in the incubation phase of their pro career. Vladdy and Bo are solid.

 

In terms of bullpen, as I wrote in the other thread I don't think Atkins will be looking to overhaul it next year. If you look at our pen with an indifferent eye we were one solid late inning arm from success. I think Atkins will look to get that one arm wherein he can knock everyone below Romano down a slot in the pegging order. In a different reality Pearson could have been our setup guy in 2022 and this would not be a hot button topic.

 

Bingo! I'm down for that.

[connorp]

I feel like you should just say Rogers is cheap and should run a top 5 payroll

 

Because if they are going to hover closer to 10th, or whatever they were this year, then they have to try to make value moves somewhere on the roster.

 

Also, have to hold them accountable for Kooch. I’m not saying I personally was against it like many were, but it was flaming pile of poo to help take them team to the next level. It added nothing for the regular season, much less did anything to improve their PS prospects. Misused the cash they had to play with there that could’ve been pegged for BP.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Back to back 90+ win seasons and fire the GM?

 

Ummm, how about f*** no. lol

[Jimcanuck]

Also, have to hold them accountable for Kooch. I’m not saying I personally was against it like many were, but it was flaming pile of poo to help take them team to the next level. It added nothing for the regular season, much less did anything to improve their PS prospects. Misused the cash they had to play with there that could’ve been pegged for BP.

 

What about the positive moves that were made? Oh, that doesn't fit the false narrative you are trying to build.

[Laika]

On one hand, everyone admits that a baseball organization can't really control what happens in the playoffs. It's very random and even the best teams in the regular season often only have marginally better probabilities than the teams that barely made the playoffs.

 

On the other hand, Toronto has flopped three years in a row. 2020 - only made it because of expansion but didn't win a game. 2021 - didn't even make it, missing by a single game. 2022 - lmao.

 

If you are going to entertain things like cultural or management changes I think an honest critique of the process is needed.

 

Judging the Process

 

Good Process

 

- Berrios trade. Good timing on trading the prospects. Nice, aggressive target.

- Springer signing. Ryu signing. Yeah Ryu won't be worth the money and George might not quite be when it's all said and done but both of these big signing were important. Springer is needed both as a competent CF (organizational thin spot) and a leader (another thing spot). Ryu's signing sent an important message to lots of people inside and outside the org and really kickstarted a positive culture shift.

- Bass and Pop trade. I still think this off-the-board trade was great, despite what happened on Saturday. They not only addressed an in-season problem but they perhaps salvaged a significant amount of value from a rapidly declining asset in Groshans.

- Gausman signing. Self explanatory.

- Ross Stripling. I guess he is a good example of why you get a guy with multiple years of control and flexible usage, if you can. Then if you don't get immediate positive returns there is a chance to work with the asset, if the talent is there?

- Matz trade. Worked out great. Gave up only trash for him.

- Ray trade + development. He was free and won a Cy Young.

- Chapman trade. They gave up basically nothing for him lol.

 

Neutral Process

 

- Berrios extension. It was fair money to a good pitcher. Can't really fault the team for his 2022 disaster season.

- Tapia trade. An innocuous trade on the fringe to slightly improve the roster and save a tiny bit of money, maybe.

- Hand and Soria acquisitions. These were lateral moves at worst in context so it's hard to criticize these moves specifically, despite what Hand did.

- Merrifield trade.

 

Bad Process

 

- Use of Raimel Tapia. Overused and misused, including at the most critical juncture of 2022. This is on the front office because they either a) misevaluated the player or failed to ensure that the coaching staff were using him properly.

- Charlie Montoyo. Should have never been the guy. He would be a good choice for a team entering a 3-5 year rebuild but that was NOT the look of the 2019 Blue Jays.

- Yusei Kikuchi. I don't even think the IDEA of getting Kikuchi was terrible in context but the money/term seemed high at the time and is very tough to rationalize now that it's coloured by hindsight...

- Pitching development. I think the disappointment people have with some of the trades and moves in the pen should be directed at a slightly different, fundamental issue. This organization has not developed or found enough high upside relief pitching and competent pitching depth, for several years now. The fact that they even have Romano is basically dumb luck since they let him go at first without recognizing his potential as a reliever. They have made very questionable decisions with guys like Pearson and Hatch, and maybe Merryweather, letting them start and arguably putting their development and health off track. They let high leverage relievers like Bryan Baker and Jason Adam slip through their control. The SHAPE of the bullpen right now and the style of pitcher that fills it out, after Romano, is a symptom of the developmental problem. I know lots of people want more "swing and miss" in the pen but really you can't just go out and pay money for that as a winning strategy - you can do it for maybe one guy in a compete year but other than that you have to either develop it yourself or be smart enough to find it on the scrap pile. Toronto has a huge problem here, ostensibly. I think in response to their own issues the GM has done an okay job patching the pen with veterans and budget additions... but the starting rotation now looks very top heavy and too expensive. Far too much right now seems to be riding on the immediate rise of a small number of promising minor leaguers in AA/AAA.

- Control of tactical decision making - Montoyo had continuous issues, here and there, where he would make dogshit in game decisions. Schneider is probably not any better and it was on full display in the final game this year. This is a communication problem, perhaps a coaching staff personnel problem.

 

The pitching developmental problems also make it hard to evaluate the Mitch White swap because it seems so very reactionary and something they kind of "had" to do because of the fundamental problem.

 

 

What did I get wrong? What did I miss?

 

When you look at all the stuff the team has done objectively WELL in the last few years it's hard to even entertain the thought of firing front office people. But I do admit there are some problems.

[Spanky__99]

Great post.

 

Edwin Diaz!!!

[connorp]

What about the positive moves that were made? Oh, that doesn't fit the false narrative you are trying to build.

 

Bull and Bear, bro. Can look at it different ways for sure. 2020 was a team coming out of a retool with playoff expectations in the short season with their prize acquisition Ryu. They got there just barely and were beat both playoff games, but ok. Team on the rise. 2021 sees the big Springer add and legit World Series contender odds. Season is a huge disappointment. Ryu collapses down the stretch, their glaring BP weakness is apparent early and it’s never really solved. They add Berrios as their huge splash but doesn’t result in playoffs. Big downer. 2022- still WS contender odds, one of the favorites. The whole year is a battle. BP issues still go on. Tightens up a little towards the end, but no big acquisitions are made to a team treading water at best most of the season in the playoff race. Can the fact like Ryu, Berrios, and Kooch looking like dead money may have factored into holding tight at the deadline? Don’t forget Randal’s $5m to boot in dead money. Swept in the playoffs again.

 

As I said, I’d give him one more year but the hot seat is justified. Of course there’s some good moves in there. There always is with fired coaches/GM

Edited October 11, 2022 by connorp

[connorp]

The architect of the patented “trust the process” was canned for building a sustained winning roster but not meeting expectations when it came time to

[Omar]

 

 

Bad Process

 

- Use of Raimel Tapia. Overused and misused, including at the most critical juncture of 2022. This is on the front office because they either a) misevaluated the player or failed to ensure that the coaching staff were using him properly.

- Charlie Montoyo. Should have never been the guy. He would be a good choice for a team entering a 3-5 year rebuild but that was NOT the look of the 2019 Blue Jays.

- Yusei Kikuchi. I don't even think the IDEA of getting Kikuchi was terrible in context but the money/term seemed high at the time and is very tough to rationalize now that it's coloured by hindsight...

- Pitching development. I think the disappointment people have with some of the trades and moves in the pen should be directed at a slightly different, fundamental issue. This organization has not developed or found enough high upside relief pitching and competent pitching depth, for several years now. The fact that they even have Romano is basically dumb luck since they let him go at first without recognizing his potential as a reliever. They have made very questionable decisions with guys like Pearson and Hatch, and maybe Merryweather, letting them start and arguably putting their development and health off track. They let high leverage relievers like Bryan Baker and Jason Adam slip through their control. The SHAPE of the bullpen right now and the style of pitcher that fills it out, after Romano, is a symptom of the developmental problem. I know lots of people want more "swing and miss" in the pen but really you can't just go out and pay money for that as a winning strategy - you can do it for maybe one guy in a compete year but other than that you have to either develop it yourself or be smart enough to find it on the scrap pile. Toronto has a huge problem here, ostensibly. I think in response to their own issues the GM has done an okay job patching the pen with veterans and budget additions... but the starting rotation now looks very top heavy and too expensive. Far too much right now seems to be riding on the immediate rise of a small number of promising minor leaguers in AA/AAA.

- Control of tactical decision making - Montoyo had continuous issues, here and there, where he would make dogshit in game decisions. Schneider is probably not any better and it was on full display in the final game this year. This is a communication problem, perhaps a coaching staff personnel problem.

 

The pitching developmental problems also make it hard to evaluate the Mitch White swap because it seems so very reactionary and something they kind of "had" to do because of the fundamental problem.

 

 

What did I get wrong? What did I miss?

 

When you look at all the stuff the team has done objectively WELL in the last few years it's hard to even entertain the thought of firing front office people. But I do admit there are some problems.

 

This is a good summation. The only thing I would add to bad process is Succession Planning. Specifically our use of our AAA call ups. While we fielded Zimmer and Tapia earlier in the season we had Nathan Lukes languishing in Buffalo. The call up of Moreno was prompted by the Jansen injury. Instead of dumpster diving for fill ins we should take a look at we have. You can say our farm is depleted but then explain Zimmer.

 

On another note. I find it interesting that before the wildcard series I mentioned that tactics can be all important in a short series. Specifically how the manager deploys his bench. Some poo pooed this. Turns out tactics played no small part in losing the series.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Omar

[Terminator]

What did I get wrong? What did I miss?

 

Great summary but you missed a few trades:

-Francisco Liriano for Teoscar Hernandez who has given us 11 WAR and counting over the past 5 years

-He got that broad running the Marlins to accept Joe Panik for Adam Cimber and Corey Dickerson lmao. In 108 innings Cimber has given us a 2.42 ERA.

-Traded Travis Bergen for a struggling Robbie Ray who he then extended for 1 year and Ray won the Cy Young that season

[wilko]

Yes because I mad.

[Laika]

Great summary but you missed a few trades:

-Francisco Liriano for Teoscar Hernandez who has given us 11 WAR and counting over the past 5 years

-He got that broad running the Marlins to accept Joe Panik for Adam Cimber and Corey Dickerson lmao. In 108 innings Cimber has given us a 2.42 ERA.

-Traded Travis Bergen for a struggling Robbie Ray who he then extended for 1 year and Ray won the Cy Young that season

 

I had Robbie Ray in there but yeah those other two were THEFTS

 

On balance this front office has been close to excellent. People who want front office changes need to grapple with the total track record.

 

Yes, they are not perfect. Pitching development seems a bit rotten the last few years. There might be something off with the culture and how the front office communicates with and controls the manager(s)... a few of their moves have not worked out or were bad in context.

 

BUT the majority of what they do is gold! Gold!

 

And jesus f***ing christ nobody is allowed to lay a hair on Shapiro until the stadium renos are 100% done..

[connorp]

Danny Ainge made perhaps one of the greatest trades in NBA history, set the Celtics up for long-term success… had a few disappointing season ends in the playoffs once they were a title contender and got shown the door.

[connorp]

No sentimentality in these decisions. One more year to make it happen or get someone else who can get them over the hump. Thanks for getting it off the ground

[Laika]

I mean I don't think there is anything special about Ross Atkins.

If they have a limp dick finish again in 2023 then sure, let Ross amicably leave to pursue new opportunities and get a different kind of guy in that role. But leave most of the front office and staff in place.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Laika