Would you fire Atkins

[Spanky99]

You mean the two rhetorical questions that you went ahead and answered after you asked them? Lol.

 

You’re not keeping up with the whole process vs results thing. So yes, Im going to agree with you that you’re right about everything. And it’s always clear if a deal is warranted or not. So like, if Cavan Biggio was signed to a long term extension like many wanted, you would say “hey, based on his FG data, that was a good decision”.. so I’m going to assume we’ll use FG as the decider if a deal is warranted or not? I mean, most deals aren’t so clear on if it’s good or bad, there’s often differing opinions, so we’ll need some line on the sand. So we can use Fangraphs I guess? Or are you the decider on what’s good or bad when it happens? I’m confused on that part

 

[connorp]

 

Basically this is what I think of most of you guys when I try to debate lol.

[Spanky99]

Basically this is what I think of most of you guys when I try to debate lol.

 

S'up buddy, how you liking wherever the f*** you are now? MidWest I think.

[connorp]

S'up buddy, how you liking wherever the f*** you are now? MidWest I think.

 

Hate it by now lol. What we do for our kids bro. I keep my eye out for select opportunities.

[Spanky99]

Hate it by now lol. What we do for our kids bro. I keep my eye out for select opportunities.

 

You're a champion for your boy, for real.

[Captain_Obvious]

You mean the two rhetorical questions that you went ahead and answered after you asked them? Lol.

 

You’re not keeping up with the whole process vs results thing. So yes, Im going to agree with you that you’re right about everything. And it’s always clear if a deal is warranted or not. So like, if Cavan Biggio was signed to a long term extension like many wanted, you would say “hey, based on his FG data, that was a good decision”.. so I’m going to assume we’ll use FG as the decider if a deal is warranted or not? I mean, most deals aren’t so clear on if it’s good or bad, there’s often differing opinions, so we’ll need some line on the sand. So we can use Fangraphs I guess? Or are you the decider on what’s good or bad when it happens? I’m confused on that part

 

That is a fair question. Whether a GM is good or not is subjective. For me, I think Atkins is an above average GM because I like most of the moves he makes, and the ones I don't like are not egregiously bad. I did not like the White trade. I did not like the Chapman extension (taking some risk with little upside). I did not like the Berrios trade. I did not like Merrifield trade. But I thought they had an OK chance of working out or might be inconsequential.

 

I liked the Berrios extension, the Springer deal, the Gausman deal, the Ryu deal, the Chapman trade, the Bass + Pop trade, the Cimber trade, the Richards trade, and not overpaying for Semien or Ray after their career years.

 

My opinion of Atkins will not change based how these moves work in hindsight.

[connorp]

I think most of our disconnect is actually Republican vs Democrat. Democrats typically are adverse to any sort of personal responsibility and I think that’s the disconnect here.

 

You can’t judge trades solely on numbers you pull from Fangraphs. Otherwise any of you nerds could fill in as a GM tomorrow.

 

Let’s take a good recent case study, James Shields/Tatis. The process here is Chicago is competing for a playoff spot and could use an inning eating workhorse.. yes Shields was coming off a bit of a down year for him but I’m sure projections still had him as a quality mid-rotation innings eater. SD will eat half the salary and all they want in return in a 45-50 FV prospect. What is the success rate on those guys objectively speaking? You nerd tell me but I’ll guess less than 10%.

 

So that’s the process man. If Shields goes on to pitch at projections and eat up innings, and Tatis turns into nothing like most of these Toronto intentional guys, that’s a solid process, is it not?

 

However, Shields completely shits the bed and Tatis turns into a generational talent.

Should Rock Hahn not to be held responsible for that? For not seeing past FG projections that Shields was cooked, as well as overlooking that he had the most exciting player in baseball under his nose?

[Stangstag]

I think most of our disconnect is actually Republican vs Democrat. Democrats typically are adverse to any sort of personal responsibility and I think that’s the disconnect here.

 

You can’t judge trades solely on numbers you pull from Fangraphs. Otherwise any of you nerds could fill in as a GM tomorrow.

 

Let’s take a good recent case study, James Shields/Tatis. The process here is Chicago is competing for a playoff spot and could use an inning eating workhorse.. yes Shields was coming off a bit of a down year for him but I’m sure projections still had him as a quality mid-rotation innings eater. SD will eat half the salary and all they want in return in a 45-50 FV prospect. What is the success rate on those guys objectively speaking? You nerd tell me but I’ll guess less than 10%.

 

So that’s the process man. If Shields goes on to pitch at projections and eat up innings, and Tatis turns into nothing like most of these Toronto intentional guys, that’s a solid process, is it not?

 

However, Shields completely shits the bed and Tatis turns into a generational talent.

Should Rock Hahn not to be held responsible for that? For not seeing past FG projections that Shields was cooked, as well as overlooking that he had the most exciting player in baseball under his nose?

 

Dude

[connorp]

As Laila said, you can’t judge anything from one trade but you can look at the outcomes of a GMs deals and understand if he’s missing something in his processes.

[connorp]

Dude

 

I’m the best poster here bro

I’m the boards Tatis

[Jimcanuck]

I think most of our disconnect is actually Republican vs Democrat. Democrats typically are adverse to any sort of personal responsibility and I think that’s the disconnect here.

 

You can’t judge trades solely on numbers you pull from Fangraphs. Otherwise any of you nerds could fill in as a GM tomorrow.

 

Let’s take a good recent case study, James Shields/Tatis. The process here is Chicago is competing for a playoff spot and could use an inning eating workhorse.. yes Shields was coming off a bit of a down year for him but I’m sure projections still had him as a quality mid-rotation innings eater. SD will eat half the salary and all they want in return in a 45-50 FV prospect. What is the success rate on those guys objectively speaking? You nerd tell me but I’ll guess less than 10%.

 

So that’s the process man. If Shields goes on to pitch at projections and eat up innings, and Tatis turns into nothing like most of these Toronto intentional guys, that’s a solid process, is it not?

 

However, Shields completely shits the bed and Tatis turns into a generational talent.

Should Rock Hahn not to be held responsible for that? For not seeing past FG projections that Shields was cooked, as well as overlooking that he had the most exciting player in baseball under his nose?

 

Jesus c-pee. Decisions should be assessed based on the information available at the time the decision is made.

 

However, rightly or wrongly if you want to base the assessment on outcomes, then objectively, Atkins has made many more decisions with positive outcomes then decisions with negative outcomes. If that's the criteria, he's an above average GM.

[connorp]

Jesus c-pee. Decisions should be assessed based on the information available at the time the decision is made.

 

However, rightly or wrongly if you want to base the assessment on outcomes, then objectively, Atkins has made many more decisions with positive outcomes then decisions with negative outcomes. If that's the criteria, he's an above average GM.

 

Just to spin the wheels last time before I quit, pro sports is based on results. Ws, Ls, good moves, bad moves… that’s what gets people fired and let’s them keep their job. The ones with “good processes” can usually get hired by someone else after they get canned though

 

You may be right with the latter point, but I’ll wager you if Jays underperform again next year, he’s gone.

[connorp]

Also the info available at the time shouldn’t be a f***ing FG page lol. Teams “info they have at the time” should be their internal assessments based on everything

 

One teams 45 FV is another’s teams 30 or potential 60. Same that goes for projections. That’s what they’re paid millions for. Produce

 

At least Min fans can be happy Berrios is terrible atm. Imagine if he was really good, and it’s like “well it’s ok because we got a fair return at the time” lol… god forbid their scouting and analytics team graded the prospects differently than FG showed and passed on them for other prospects

Edited October 12, 2022 by connorp

[jaysblue]

I just find some posters on here throw around excuses such as "bad luck," "randomness," and "it was a great deal at the time," way too often when someone criticizes this front office.

 

Look, Atkins is a solid GM and has done a solid job during his tenure in Toronto. He's made some fantastic moves over the years such as bringing back JA Happ for the 2016 season, trading Liriano for Teo, buying low on Ray and Semien while also refraining from signing them to monster contracts, signed a top FA in George Springer, signed a top FA starter in Ryu (at the time), traded and extended for Berrios, signing Gausman and trading for Chapman last offseason. The team is coming off two 90 win seasons. They have a solid core in place. They need to add some final pieces to take this team to the next level however.

 

There are some areas he could improve such as filling out the entire roster rather than leaving the bottom part pretty bare thin. We've seen that the past two seasons with the bench and the bullpen. Lastly, like MikeM said, this front office needs to do a better job at developing young arms in their system and targeting arms. Would make it much easier to sustain a stronger rotation and bullpen at the MLB level.

 

So does Atkins deserved to be fired? I don't think so. I do think he's on thin ice for 2023 and if this team disappoints again by either failing to the make the Postseason or make a deep run in October, he's likely gone. Upgrades need to be made on this team, especially in the bullpen and roster depth. For posters saying everything is fine, they need to give their head a shake. If the Jays enter 2023 again with a mediocre pen, an OF like Tapia on the roster and no roster depth, you'll have the same outcome as in 2021 and 2022.

[connorp]

This is your prime time Spanky, are you going to step up to the mic so I can smack your ass down too? Or you’re just going to post a GiF from your crazy cat lady Yourube channel you like so much?

 

Or you’ve gotten good at coloring in the lines by now?

[Spanky99]

This is your prime time Spanky, are you going to step up to the mic so I can smack your ass down too? Or you’re just going to post a GiF from your crazy cat lady Yourube channel you like so much?

 

Or you’ve gotten good at coloring in the lines by now?

 

[Spanky99]

I just find some posters on here throw around excuses such as "bad luck," "randomness," and "it was a great deal at the time," way too often when someone criticizes this front office.

 

Look, Atkins is a solid GM and has done a solid job during his tenure in Toronto. He's made some fantastic moves over the years such as bringing back JA Happ for the 2016 season, trading Liriano for Teo, buying low on Ray and Semien while also refraining from signing them to monster contracts, signed a top FA in George Springer, signed a top FA starter in Ryu (at the time), traded and extended for Berrios, signing Gausman and trading for Chapman last offseason. The team is coming off two 90 win seasons. They have a solid core in place. They need to add some final pieces to take this team to the next level however.

 

There are some areas he could improve such as filling out the entire roster rather than leaving the bottom part pretty bare thin. We've seen that the past two seasons with the bench and the bullpen. Lastly, like MikeM said, this front office needs to do a better job at developing young arms in their system and targeting arms. Would make it much easier to sustain a stronger rotation and bullpen at the MLB level.

 

So does Atkins deserved to be fired? I don't think so. I do think he's on thin ice for 2023 and if this team disappoints again by either failing to the make the Postseason or make a deep run in October, he's likely gone. Upgrades need to be made on this team, especially in the bullpen and roster depth. For posters saying everything is fine, they need to give their head a shake. If the Jays enter 2023 again with a mediocre pen, an OF like Tapia on the roster and no roster depth, you'll have the same outcome as in 2021 and 2022.

 

Who is this now? lol... who are you brushing this time? It's likely the truth... show different.

[saskjayfan]

What a dumb argument.

 

Here are a couple of questions:

1- If Atkins manages to sign Judge to 5 year 100M contract in the off-season, would you consider this a good deal and that Atkins made a wise decision?

The answer is Yes.

 

2- If Judge proceeds to hit like Tapia right after signing that contract, does that mean Atkins is a moron and should be fired for signing Judge?

The answer is No. The decision Atkins made is still the right one based on the data available at the time he made it.

 

Yeah but they gave Kikuchi 36 mil and he had a career FIP around 5 and not shockingly he pitched to that same level this year so expecting the guy to pitch more than a run better than his career numbers which was needed ot justify that salary was a bit ridiculous. Seattle fans laughed at us when we signed him. They were right. Atkins is a solid GM who's made mistakes. All GMs do. Has he made enough to get fired. No, not unless there's someone better which is not out of the realm of possiblity. You look to upgrade every position, including GM. If there's someone you think can do the job better, see you later Ross. Dwayne casey was a solid competent coach on a first place team. He was removed for a better coach in Nick Nurse.

[Olerud363]

Yeah but they gave Kikuchi 36 mil and he had a career FIP around 5 and not shockingly he pitched to that same level this year so expecting the guy to pitch more than a run better than his career numbers which was needed ot justify that salary was a bit ridiculous. Seattle fans laughed at us when we signed him. They were right. Atkins is a solid GM who's made mistakes. All GMs do. Has he made enough to get fired. No, not unless there's someone better which is not out of the realm of possiblity. You look to upgrade every position, including GM. If there's someone you think can do the job better, see you later Ross. Dwayne casey was a solid competent coach on a first place team. He was removed for a better coach in Nick Nurse.

 

FIP isn't everything though because it doesn't account for a fluky homerun rate. There is also xFIP which is ERA assuming an average homerun per flyball rate.

 

Kikuchi's xFIP is not so bad. Even last year it was 4.08. Is xFIP more predictive then FIP?

 

If Kikuchi lowered his walk rate to his career norm, and had an average homerun per flyball he'd be great. He doesn't have to do anything with the walk rate, except return to his career normal, he has to lower the homerun per flyball rate to below his career normal, which may (or may not) be possible. I don't know much about whether homerun per flyball rates are a skill or luck.

 

So there is a chance Kikuchi still might add value and I can see how they evaluated him as having potential.

[BigCecil]

Jesus c-pee. Decisions should be assessed based on the information available at the time the decision is made.

 

However, rightly or wrongly if you want to base the assessment on outcomes, then objectively, Atkins has made many more decisions with positive outcomes then decisions with negative outcomes. If that's the criteria, he's an above average GM.

 

100%. And unlike posters on a message board the FO and ownership invest millions in that analysis. They hand pick the people who gather than information to make recommendations. They make decisions based on this vis a vis investments. Just like any business would. The reality is not every leader would make the same investment based on the analysis and who did the analysis. They are paid to make these bets and they live or die by them.

 

At the end of the day the FO is responsible for the results of the business. Is it always fair? No. Ross fired Charlie? Was that totally fair? Probably not.

 

I agree playoff performance is not the best or only metric for evaluating the FO and their performance. But it is one metric of value and that success does tend to have a disproportionate positive impact on the business performance, for obvious reasons (unless you are the Rays fanbase).

 

I don't buy the young team or bad luck rationale for convenient "everything is awesome" analysis of this FO performance. OTOH I'm not in the hang 'em high camp for Atkins either. 2023 is a big year. I think other teams like HOU and ATL are doing a much better job of building a sustainable winner than Ross is at this point. He has traded a lot of our top prospects (at the time) and he has spent a boat load of signing money on deals for Kooch, Roark, Grichuk, Aging brittle Springer, Ryu who knows, Berrios ??. Some have worked out better than others. I think thats normal, but it its a informing metric for judging his performance. Vlad was gifted from AA and Gausman and Manoah have been gems so far for this FO. Lets seen what happens.

[John_Havok]

so many posts just to boil down the simple truth about Atkins - he's built a very solid foundation, made some small adjustments to that, and now needs to do the hard part; taking a perennial 90+ win playoff team to the next level. That's way harder to do than the first part, costs more money, involves more risk and only results in small incremental improvements.

 

90% of his job has been done and done very well. The last 10% is what separates a good GM from a great one - and even then doesnt guarantee a WS

[Krylian]

so many posts just to boil down the simple truth about Atkins - he's built a very solid foundation, made some small adjustments to that, and now needs to do the hard part; taking a perennial 90+ win playoff team to the next level. That's way harder to do than the first part, costs more money, involves more risk and only results in small incremental improvements.

 

The risk part is where I'm leery of Atkins. Not sure how much more money Rogers is willing to invest either tbh. Feels like they're already maxed out on payroll for the most part.

[John_Havok]

The risk part is where I'm leery of Atkins. Not sure how much more money Rogers is willing to invest either tbh. Feels like they're already maxed out on payroll for the most part.

 

Nah, Rogers could easily blow past 200million if they wanted to. The Jays make them a ton of money - couple that with what I'm sure will be even more billions of dollars per year in revenues after their merger with Shaw that should not be allowed to happen but still will because money rules the world instead of common sense, and the Jays ownership should be able to print their own money.

[Laika]

Nah, Rogers could easily blow past 200million if they wanted to. The Jays make them a ton of money

 

But they don't want to.

[John_Havok]

But they don't want to.

 

Yeah they do, they just dont know it yet.

[connorp]

If they don’t want to spend, he needs to do a bold “Sergio Santos” move or he’s just a Pusso. And if next year starts going like the last, maybe he shouldn’t even be at the helm at the deadline

[Laika]

How many bold closer / shutdown RP acquisitions have occurred in Blue Jays history?

 

How many of those have worked out?

 

Santos was a bust. BJ Ryan contract did not work out. Randy Myers was a bust.

 

The only one I can think of that worked out was Duane Ward, who I mostly think of as a developed player but apparently Toronto traded an old buy good Doyle Alexander for him during Ward's rookie year.

[Laika]

Like, I'm sorry connor I know you think you have a slam dunk point here but it's probably just absolutely retarded to make big moves for relievers. Historrrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy proooooooooooooooooooves it

[Krylian]

But they don't want to.

 

This

[connorp]

Like, I'm sorry connor I know you think you have a slam dunk point here but it's probably just absolutely retarded to make big moves for relievers. Historrrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy proooooooooooooooooooves it

 

What’s the Rays history with RP deals. I don’t know, I’m curious