What if Santiago Espanal is Actually Good?

[Jimcanuck]

The thing in the Jays favour is that Espinal is exactly the kind of player they don't need to sign to an extension to cover his arb years, since the numbers he will put up will not be the kind that wins massive arbitration awards.

 

10-15 HR per year + good defense, a solid starter who likely puts up 2-4 WAR while getting paid nothing close to his actual on field value. He's the surplus value darling we will need to offset Vlad, Bo and others.

 

The extension would cover 2 free agent years, to his age 33 season. If it can be agreed upon for a reasonable amount, its a good bet for the Jays to take.

[Spanky99]

lol... you're f***ed.

[TwistedLogic]

Santiago Español my fav blue jey.

[Deadpool]

That's what I mean. Jays signed LGJ long term before he even played a MLB game - different circumstances I know. Nothing wrong with signing a guy like Espinal to 6/20 or something now, if you believe in the talent.

 

Espinal's floor is pretty solid. This isn't a Grichuk situation.

 

LGJ was an IFA though, he's still on his original contract after defecting from Cuba. We actually control Gurriel for a year (via arb) after his contract expires.

 

And 6/20 was the exact contract I said would be worth signing this early

[Jimcanuck]

LGJ was an IFA though, he's still on his original contract after defecting from Cuba. We actually control Gurriel for a year (via arb) after his contract expires.

 

And 6/20 was the exact contract I said would be worth signing this early

 

ya i mentioned the circumstances are different

 

anyway, different opinions

 

except spanky, only his opinion matters, everyone else is f***ed

[Spanky99]

ya i mentioned the circumstances are different

 

anyway, different opinions

 

except spanky, only his opinion matters, everyone else is f***ed

 

Why do you keep attacking me, sir?

[Jimcanuck]

Why do you keep attacking me, sir?

 

Same reason juniorfelix was, to keep things in line around here.

[Deadpool]

Same reason juniorfelix was, to keep things in line around here.

 

Willingly comparing yourself to that jackass is an... interesting choice.

[Spanky99]

Same reason juniorfelix was, to keep things in line around here.

 

Pffftt...

[max silver]

Willingly comparing yourself to that jackass is an... interesting choice.

 

I noticed yesterday that idiot for himself banned somehow, any idea what earned him a second timeout?

[Spanky99]

Willingly comparing yourself to that jackass is an... interesting choice.

 

Rekt.

[Deadpool]

I noticed yesterday that idiot for himself banned somehow, any idea what earned him a second timeout?

 

Wasn't me, and there was no discussion of it in the ModHotTub.

[Spanky99]

Wasn't me, and there was no discussion of it in the ModHotTub.

 

lol... that label always makes me chuckle.

[Jimcanuck]

Willingly comparing yourself to that jackass is an... interesting choice.

 

Your reading comprehension needs work.

[connorp]

I noticed yesterday that idiot for himself banned somehow, any idea what earned him a second timeout?

 

Someone lightly peer pressured a mod and they obliged. No dramatics

[Eat My Shatkins]

I noticed yesterday that idiot for himself banned somehow, any idea what earned him a second timeout?

 

Thank christ. Good riddance to that moron.

 

He'd be running rampant in here today, the Jays lost.

[wilko]

I'm smoking some crack later... I can't wait to s*** post in here!

[John Balkabella]

What if the Jays sucked?

 

Jeezus, we have a good team here guys.

[John_Havok]

Gonna wait until todays numbers update, but i feel like there's a lot more swing/miss in Espinal's game this season over previous years. Good EVs, and still stellar D, but something seems amiss with his swing

[Spanky99]

Gonna wait until todays numbers update, but i feel like there's a lot more swing/miss in Espinal's game this season over previous years. Good EVs, and still stellar D, but something seems amiss with his swing

 

21.7% K rate, that's fine as long as he continues to hit the ball hard, a wRC+ of 123 is good.

[Laika]

Gonna wait until todays numbers update, but i feel like there's a lot more swing/miss in Espinal's game this season over previous years. Good EVs, and still stellar D, but something seems amiss with his swing

 

His approach is much "worse"; he's just hacking.

 

It might pay off though depending how much extra power there is.

[connorp]

His approach is much "worse"; he's just hacking.

 

It might pay off though depending how much extra power there is.

 

How’s your boy Chappy doing?

[connorp]

He might actually be good lol.

 

Haha. Still wild swings in the stats on HRs. We’ll see.

[BigCecil]

This conversation reminds me a bit of similar past conversations we Jays fans have had - Reed Johnson '06 and watching Marco Scutaro's seasons here.

 

If we can compete at a high level in the past with bats like Goins and Manny Lee, Espy is definitely for real given his D value. He is hard not to love as a player.

[John_Havok]

This conversation reminds me a bit of similar past conversations we Jays fans have had - Reed Johnson '06 and watching Marco Scutaro's seasons here.

 

If we can compete at a high level in the past with bats like Goins and Manny Lee, Espy is definitely for real given his D value. He is hard not to love as a player.

 

Well, there is a tiny bit of concern for him in that his approach seems to have changed drastically with the added muscle, and hasn't really been helping. Still stellar D, no question there at all, but he's trying to mash everything and swinging/missing a lot more. If he reverts to his previous approach and just allows his added muscle to hit balls harder, the results would likely be much better. Just realize he's not gonna ever hit 20 HRs in a season, so stop trying to do that and get back to being the spray hitter but with a higher EV.

 

at least, that's my theory. His WRC+ is virtually identical to last season, but wOBA is down. Power is up, OBP is down. Essentially looks like his gains in power are not yet sufficient to cover his large decline in getting balls in play and on base.

[max silver]

Well, there is a tiny bit of concern for him in that his approach seems to have changed drastically with the added muscle, and hasn't really been helping. Still stellar D, no question there at all, but he's trying to mash everything and swinging/missing a lot more. If he reverts to his previous approach and just allows his added muscle to hit balls harder, the results would likely be much better. Just realize he's not gonna ever hit 20 HRs in a season, so stop trying to do that and get back to being the spray hitter but with a higher EV.

 

at least, that's my theory. His WRC+ is virtually identical to last season, but wOBA is down. Power is up, OBP is down. Essentially looks like his gains in power are not yet sufficient to cover his large decline in getting balls in play and on base.

 

I think when it's all said and done even with the less patient approach Espinal is still a much better overall offensive performer compared to his previous output. In 2021 his 115 wrc+ looked to be largely undeserved given the extremely low exit velocities, and xWOBA was 37 points below his actual. I had serious doubts that he would be able to maintain this type of WRC+ going forward as it largely relied on weakly hit balls finding holes in the defence.

 

His xWOBA is showing an opposite trend this year where it's quite a bit higher than actual with a 38 point gap between WOBA and xWOBA. It seems quite likely that he's been a bit unlucky with his batted ball results given the quality of contact he's produced. Over time I suspect his numbers may actually climb a bit compared to where they sit presently if he can continue to square up baseballs at the rate he's done so far.

[Signal]

Well, there is a tiny bit of concern for him in that his approach seems to have changed drastically with the added muscle, and hasn't really been helping. Still stellar D, no question there at all, but he's trying to mash everything and swinging/missing a lot more. If he reverts to his previous approach and just allows his added muscle to hit balls harder, the results would likely be much better. Just realize he's not gonna ever hit 20 HRs in a season, so stop trying to do that and get back to being the spray hitter but with a higher EV.

 

at least, that's my theory. His WRC+ is virtually identical to last season, but wOBA is down. Power is up, OBP is down. Essentially looks like his gains in power are not yet sufficient to cover his large decline in getting balls in play and on base.

 

He's working out. For someone who is working it out he still managed double digits RBIs in a month...so, I think I am fine with him finding that right blend of power and contact.

[John_Havok]

I think when it's all said and done even with the less patient approach Espinal is still a much better overall offensive performer compared to his previous output. In 2021 his 115 wrc+ looked to be largely undeserved given the extremely low exit velocities, and xWOBA was 37 points below his actual. I had serious doubts that he would be able to maintain this type of WRC+ going forward as it largely relied on weakly hit balls finding holes in the defence.

 

His xWOBA is showing an opposite trend this year where it's quite a bit higher than actual with a 38 point gap between WOBA and xWOBA. It seems quite likely that he's been a bit unlucky with his batted ball results given the quality of contact he's produced. Over time I suspect his numbers may actually climb a bit compared to where they sit presently if he can continue to square up baseballs at the rate he's done so far.

 

Yeah, it's possible. But the squaring up more balls will only help a guy like him to a certain point if the amount of balls he puts in play goes way down. His strength last season was putting tons of balls into play, high contact and taking his walks. so yeah, he may or may not have been lucky depending on EV, launch angle etc. Now, his contact is very clearly down, but of the balss he puts into play, he's hitting them harder. There's a balance point somewhere in there (admittedly I don't know exactly where) where hitting the ball harder on average but putting far fewer balls in play would be no better than putting far more balls in play at lower EVs.

 

EV increase = awesome.

 

Not putting as many balls in play with that higher EV = not as optimal as it could be if his contact rate trended a bit back towards last season.

 

 

 

and by no means am I saying he's not a good player, he absolutely is and should 100% be playing everyday on this team.

[John_Havok]

He's working out. For someone who is working it out he still managed double digits RBIs in a month...so, I think I am fine with him finding that right blend of power and contact.

 

Defitnitely working out, not meaning to suggest otherwise. But you lost me with RBIs

[Spanky99]

I think when it's all said and done even with the less patient approach Espinal is still a much better overall offensive performer compared to his previous output. In 2021 his 115 wrc+ looked to be largely undeserved given the extremely low exit velocities, and xWOBA was 37 points below his actual. I had serious doubts that he would be able to maintain this type of WRC+ going forward as it largely relied on weakly hit balls finding holes in the defence.

 

His xWOBA is showing an opposite trend this year where it's quite a bit higher than actual with a 38 point gap between WOBA and xWOBA. It seems quite likely that he's been a bit unlucky with his batted ball results given the quality of contact he's produced. Over time I suspect his numbers may actually climb a bit compared to where they sit presently if he can continue to square up baseballs at the rate he's done so far.

 

Max Silver... killing it today!