General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Laika]

Toronto has all the cards here. Ross needs to be patient and let someone get desperate. The other trade targets and the free agents are close to gone.

[max silver]

Cueto put up decent numbers in a bad division this year

 

He hasn't put up good numbers in a good division in a long time

 

Not sure how he gets valued. Seems like someone who gets picked up by a non-contender with a big ballpark.

 

Cueto did a pretty good job suppressing hard contact and missing barrels despite the complete lack of whiffs. His expected home runs total don't really take a dramatic jump in most ballparks save Texas and Milwaukee so some of his success may translate to other ballparks.

 

His quality of competition wasn't great as you've mentioned, a look at his game log shows a lot of outings against the likes of the Royals, Twins, Athletics, Rangers etc. and not much in the way of higher quality opposition so it's natural to wonder how he would fare against tougher quality of opposition. Some of that concern could be mitigated due to the more balanced schedule MLB is finally implementing, so he wouldn't regularly be facing the juggernaut opponents in the AL East.

[Terminator]

Could playing time be a factor in signing an OF bat? As it stands, whoever we sign will be competing with Gurriel and KK for playing time in the OF and then will be competing with Jano/Kirk for AB's at DH. Merrifield is also a factor in the OF.

 

I think when it all shakes out in the end there will be plenty of ABs to go around but could this give some FA outfielders some pause before signing here?

[Jonn]

Could playing time be a factor in signing an OF bat? As it stands, whoever we sign will be competing with Gurriel and KK for playing time in the OF and then will be competing with Jano/Kirk for AB's at DH. Merrifield is also a factor in the OF.

 

I think when it all shakes out in the end there will be plenty of ABs to go around but could this give some FA outfielders some pause before signing here?

 

Gurriel can play 1B and both Springer and Vlad will DH plenty. Kiermaier probably doesn’t need more than 3 starts a week and won’t play against Lefties. If you have the option of adding a Conforto you make that move. There’s at-bats to go around. And injuries usually take care of most of those issues.

 

Our 4th Outfielder is currently Merrifield and Biggio? And Merrifield might actually be the Starting Second Baseman. Lukes the only other Outfielder on the 40-man.

[max silver]

I liked him as depth after getting him from the Brewers but he's been crap since the trade. Where's the helium coming from? He pitched in the Dominican League this winter right?

 

He played in the Puerto Rican winter league. His numbers are very strong although the quality of opposition is certainly in question.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=franci000bow

[max silver]

Could playing time be a factor in signing an OF bat? As it stands, whoever we sign will be competing with Gurriel and KK for playing time in the OF and then will be competing with Jano/Kirk for AB's at DH. Merrifield is also a factor in the OF.

 

I think when it all shakes out in the end there will be plenty of ABs to go around but could this give some FA outfielders some pause before signing here?

 

The team presently only has 3 legitimate outfield options for 2023, and Kiermaier is likely to receive 4th outfielder level playing time at most given his propensity for injury. I don't think lack of opportunity for playing time should be a huge concern for free agents at this point unless the team trades for another outfielder first.

[Stangstag]

Gurriel can play 1B and both Springer and Vlad will DH plenty. Kiermaier probably doesn’t need more than 3 starts a week and won’t play against Lefties. If you have the option of adding a Conforto you make that move. There’s at-bats to go around. And injuries usually take care of most of those issues.

 

Our 4th Outfielder is currently Merrifield and Biggio? And Merrifield might actually be the Starting Second Baseman. Lukes the only other Outfielder on the 40-man.

 

Agreed. Promise Conforto the everday job in LF/RF and work out the other guys around him. Springer in CF some days with Conforto/Gurriel at the corners

[Laika]

I liked him as depth after getting him from the Brewers but he's been crap since the trade. Where's the helium coming from? He pitched in the Dominican League this winter right?

 

Best SP in the PRWL

 

And his K rate was okay in AAA. Makes me think he has a chance.

[Terminator]

The team presently only has 3 legitimate outfield options for 2023, and Kiermaier is likely to receive 4th outfielder level playing time at most given his propensity for injury. I don't think lack of opportunity for playing time should be a huge concern for free agents at this point unless the team trades for another outfielder first.

 

I'd say we have 4 legitimate OF options. But even if it's 3, there are some teams out there who only have 2. Some contenders even.

 

If you are Michael Conforto and you need to rebuild value with a big year in the worst way and see this depth chart:

 

LF: Gurriel

CF: Kiermaier

RF: Springer

DH: Jano/Kirk

Other options: Whit, Biggio

 

it would give you no pause whatsoever? Particularly when there are other contenders out there who have more clear cut needs in the OF?

 

I agree with everyone that it makes sense from the team's perspective and I think the AB's would be there in the end. But Conforto probably deserves to be in a platoon if he signs here and everyone is healthy.

 

And that's just Conforto. Brantley who is more of a DH would be in a cloudier situation.

 

I don't think it will preclude the Jays from making any moves but it could make things a little tougher on them.

[Laika]

I think Tendies and Farto would not sign here because of the depth chart

 

Brantley might because he's a smart veteran and he knows that one extra bat is hardly a surplus at all.

 

But I still think it's trade or bust. Bust might include signing a shitbag like Naquin.

[Omar]

Nathan Lukes has entered the chat.

[Terminator]

I think Tendies and Farto would not sign here because of the depth chart

 

Brantley might because he's a smart veteran and he knows that one extra bat is hardly a surplus at all.

 

But I still think it's trade or bust. Bust might include signing a shitbag like Naquin.

 

Yeah that makes sense to me. Tendies would be signing a longer term deal so just maximizing his contract would be wise. If we offer the most money, he'd probably take it- playing time concerns be damned.

 

Conforto needs a showcase year so I do think he's going to consider playing time. Even if he's projected to play 80-90% of the time he could find a team that would play him 100% of the time he's available. Might be able to say the same for Gallo who would have a longer leash for a bad team.

 

As for Brantley, since he's old he is probably fine with resting once in a while too. Who knows how much longer he'll be signing these MLB contracts anyway. Why worry about tomorrow if someone today is offering you a couple more mil? So he probably takes the most money as well.

[Terminator]

Nathan Lukes has entered the chat.

 

If Conforto is worried about a 28 year old career minor leaguer then we don't want him anyway.

[G-Snarls]

 

Brantley might because he's a smart veteran and he knows that one extra bat is hardly a surplus at all.

 

 

Plus he n' Springer are BFF

[Stangstag]

Nathan Lukes has entered the chat.

 

Horwitz plays OF a bit right?? Another potential option. Maybe Barger too?

[Stangstag]

Yeah that makes sense to me. Tendies would be signing a longer term deal so just maximizing his contract would be wise. If we offer the most money, he'd probably take it- playing time concerns be damned.

 

Conforto needs a showcase year so I do think he's going to consider playing time. Even if he's projected to play 80-90% of the time he could find a team that would play him 100% of the time he's available. Might be able to say the same for Gallo who would have a longer leash for a bad team.

 

As for Brantley, since he's old he is probably fine with resting once in a while too. Who knows how much longer he'll be signing these MLB contracts anyway. Why worry about tomorrow if someone today is offering you a couple more mil? So he probably takes the most money as well.

 

With his health problems, it might be better if he only plays 80-90% of games anyways. Idk I think if the money is there, he’ll sign.

[Omar]

Horwitz plays OF a bit right?? Another potential option. Maybe Barger too?

 

Yeah I don’t know how they compare to Lukes on the depth chart. I thought Barger was an infielder?

[G-Snarls]

At what positions to we have above average bats?

 

Catcher

1B

SS

CF

 

(I suppose DH sort of if you consider it's usually Kirk, Springer or Vladdy but when it's Vladdy or Springer you lose the advantage at their primary position)

 

That's it if you ask me.

 

We're going to have a GOOD starting rotation, GOOD defense, and MAYBE a good bullpen. But none of the above are GREAT.

 

So... Is that enough offense? Even WITH Teo the team would struggle to score for weeks at a time sometimes. And Vladdy might do another 2021 or he might not. I'm certainly not going in to the season counting on it. I can't help but feeling like we're a good bat short.

Edited December 14, 2022 by G-Snarls

[Stangstag]

At what positions to we have above average bats?

 

Catcher

1B

SS

CF

 

(I suppose DH sort of if you consider it's usually Kirk, Springer or Vladdy but when it's Vladdy or Springer you lose the advantage at their primary position)

 

That's it if you ask me.

 

We're going to have a GOOD starting rotation, GOOD defense, and MAYBE a good bullpen. But none of the above are GREAT.

 

So... Is that enough offense? Even WITH Teo the team would struggle to score for weeks at a time sometimes. And Vladdy might do another 2021 or he might not. I'm certainly not going in to the season counting on it. I can't help but feeling like we're a good bat short.

 

3B for sure is at least above average. DH counts because it will be a lot of Kirk there. LF probably slightly above average.

 

You’re underselling dude. Just go check fangraphs wRC+ and compare to other teams. Jays are top 10 offense easily, likely top 5ish.

[G-Snarls]

3B for sure is at least above average. DH counts because it will be a lot of Kirk there. LF probably slightly above average.

 

You’re underselling dude. Just go check fangraphs wRC+ and compare to other teams. Jays are top 10 offense easily, likely top 5ish.

 

Yeah. Chapman is above agerage by wRC+ as well. And with Tapia/JBJ gone we don't really have any TERRIBLE bats. I'll try to calm down.

 

If everyone is healthy and performing it's a good lineup. There's just more risk than I'd like for Vladdy to be mediocre and Springer to spend half the year at DH instead of in the OF. I guess one more legit bat helps mitigate that.

[jerb]

 

Sarah Langs

@SlangsOnSports

 

Vlad could make his 2022 LIDOM debut tomorrow

 

👀

 

REMINDER all LIDOM games are on MLB dot tv

 

Héctor Gómez

@hgomez27

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with @EscogidoBBClub in the Dominican Winter League.

 

(via @MannyRG04)

[max silver]

At what positions to we have above average bats?

 

Catcher

1B

SS

CF

 

(I suppose DH sort of if you consider it's usually Kirk, Springer or Vladdy but when it's Vladdy or Springer you lose the advantage at their primary position)

 

That's it if you ask me.

 

We're going to have a GOOD starting rotation, GOOD defense, and MAYBE a good bullpen. But none of the above are GREAT.

 

So... Is that enough offense? Even WITH Teo the team would struggle to score for weeks at a time sometimes. And Vladdy might do another 2021 or he might not. I'm certainly not going in to the season counting on it. I can't help but feeling like we're a good bat short.

 

The team as constructed should be pretty solid everywhere, and there is room for internal improvement in the lineup, rotation and bullpen which can allow each of these aspects to be more than just solid and become true strengths.

 

There is potential for a great rotation if Berrios bounces back to close to previous levels of performance. The bullpen has a shot to be good if Swanson proves to be legit and not a one year wonder, and can be very good if Pearson finally avoids injury/illness long enough to provide innings. There are several candidates in the lineup who have potential to provide more offence than 2022 as well, such as Vlad rediscovering his form, Bo hitting more consistently, Gurriel rediscovering some of his lost power etc. The team has a very solid base, but I'll still go ahead and agree that I'd like to see another bat if the budget allows as the team is at the point where every potential win matters.

[Terminator]

At what positions to we have above average bats?

 

 

C- Elite

1B- Elite

2B- Average

3B- Above Average

SS- Very good

LF- Above average

CF- below average with Kiermaier but more moves likely put Springer here a decent amount

RF- Very good

DH- Very good

 

So to answer the question pretty much everywhere.

[G-Snarls]

The team as constructed should be pretty solid everywhere, and there is room for internal improvement in the lineup, rotation and bullpen which can allow each of these aspects to be more than just solid and become true strengths.

 

There is potential for a great rotation if Berrios bounces back to close to previous levels of performance. The bullpen has a shot to be good if Swanson proves to be legit and not a one year wonder, and can be very good if Pearson finally avoids injury/illness long enough to provide innings. There are several candidates in the lineup who have potential to provide more offence than 2022 as well, such as Vlad rediscovering his form, Bo hitting more consistently, Gurriel rediscovering some of his lost power etc. The team has a very solid base, but I'll still go ahead and agree that I'd like to see another bat if the budget allows as the team is at the point where every potential win matters.

 

I'm pretty sure they ARE after a LH bat. But with the payroll where it sits it will almost certainly have to come via trade for a pre-arb or arb level player as opposed to a free agent.

[max silver]

I'm pretty sure they ARE after a LH bat. But with the payroll where it sits it will almost certainly have to come via trade for a pre-arb or arb level player as opposed to a free agent.

 

I think if the team is already straddling the CBT limit there's no sense in pussyfooting around and ending up a million or two above. The penalties for being up to $20 million over amount to a tiny slap on the wrist so they should continue spending to fill the last remaining hole(s).

[max silver]

 

Sarah Langs

@SlangsOnSports

 

Vlad could make his 2022 LIDOM debut tomorrow

 

��

 

REMINDER all LIDOM games are on MLB dot tv

 

Héctor Gómez

@hgomez27

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with @EscogidoBBClub in the Dominican Winter League.

 

(via @MannyRG04)

 

 

I didn't know Vlad was planning to play winter ball, for a dude that plays every day like he does this comes as a bit of a surprise.

[Ehjays]

Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Johnny Cueto

By Darragh McDonald | December 14, 2022 at 3:02pm CDT

 

The Blue Jays made a notable addition to their rotation this week by signing right-hander Chris Bassitt to a three-year deal, but they might not be done. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the club is open to further additions and have shown recent interest in righty Johnny Cueto.

 

The club has four rotation spots now spoken for, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Bassitt all locked in as long as they’re healthy. The final spot in the rotation is a bit less concrete, however. The club signed lefty Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year deal going into 2022 but saw him struggle badly, eventually getting bumped to the bullpen and finishing the year with a 5.19 ERA. Righty Mitch White had a 3.70 ERA with the Dodgers when the Jays acquired him at the deadline, but he posted a 7.74 ERA after the deal. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery in June and won’t be an option until the second half of the season even in a best-case scenario. Nate Pearson was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball but he’s been limited by various injuries to less than 50 innings in each of the past three seasons. Given all that uncertainty at the back end, it’s unsurprising that a win-now club like the Jays would be open to adding a stable veteran.

 

Cueto, 37 in February, surely fits the bill having pitched in each of the past 15 MLB seasons with a career 3.44 ERA. One of the best pitchers in baseball earlier in his career, he’s falling from those incredible heights but has proven himself to still be quite useful of late. He dealt with injuries and was barely able to pitch in 2018 and 2019, then struggled in the shortened 2020 season. However, he’s had a solid return to form in each of the past two campaigns.

 

With the Giants in 2021, he tossed 114 2/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate was a bit shy of average, but his 6.1% walk rate was quite strong. He reached free agency after that campaign and lingered on the market after the lockout. He eventually signed a minor league deal with the White Sox in early April, though one that would pay him a prorated $4.2MM salary once in the majors. After getting built up to a starter’s workload, he made it back to the big leagues in May and eventually tossed 158 1/3 innings for the Pale Hose with a 3.35 ERA. Similar to the year before, he didn’t rack up the strikeouts, finishing with a 15.7% rate. However, his control was even better, as he walked just 5.1% of batters faced. He got grounders on 42.6% of balls in play and limited hard contact, coming in the 67th percentile in terms of hard hit percentage and 69th percentile in terms of average exit velocity.

 

Given Cueto’s age, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal but he should still earn a decent salary. He’s coming off a stronger platform than he was one year ago and the market for starting pitching has been quite strong overall this year. The free agent market still has a few surefire starters in Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard and Michael Wacha, but Cueto is one of the more attractive options outside of that group. Others include Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly and Drew Rucinski.

 

Notably, the Blue Jays are now positioned to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time in franchise history. The recent signings of Bassitt and Kevin Kiermaier have nudged the team just barely over the $233MM threshold, according to Roster Resource. It’s always possible that they could make a trade that puts them back under, but it seems possible the club is willing to stay over the line by season’s end. If that is indeed the case, then perhaps they are willing to spend a bit more to add Cueto or someone similar to their pitching staff. Nicholson-Smith relays that president Mark Shapiro recently said that the CBT is “not an obstacle” for ownership. “The support and the growth of that payroll is unprecedented in the history of the franchise and it continues to be very strong.”

 

It’s unclear how high they plan on taking the payroll, but they appear to be targeting areas other than the rotation. Nicholson-Smith reiterates their known interest in outfielders and adds that they have been showing interest in “high-upside relievers” even after acquiring Erik Swanson in the Teoscar Hernández trade earlier this winter. No names are listed as specific targets, but some of the top relief names on the open market are Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, Adam Ottavino and Michael Fulmer. Nicholson-Smith adds on Twitter that it’s possible the Jays are more likely to add in the bullpen than the rotation, despite the interest in Cueto.

[Stangstag]

I think if the team is already straddling the CBT limit there's no sense in pussyfooting around and ending up a million or two above. The penalties for being up to $20 million over amount to a tiny slap on the wrist so they should continue spending to fill the last remaining hole(s).

 

Im not sure why people keep saying this, you are taxed an extra % of all money over the threshold. So yes there is a difference in going 1 million over vs 20 million over.

 

From MLB.com:

 

The following thresholds were put in place per the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement:

 

2022: $230 million

 

2023: $233 million

 

2024: $237 million

 

2025: $241 million

 

2026: $244 million

[max silver]

Im not sure why people keep saying this, you are taxed an extra % of all money over the threshold. So yes there is a difference in going 1 million over vs 20 million over.

 

From MLB.com:

 

The following thresholds were put in place per the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement:

 

2022: $230 million

 

2023: $233 million

 

2024: $237 million

 

2025: $241 million

 

2026: $244 million

 

The point that I'm making is that the actual penalty for going over the initial limit is very small in the grand scheme of things. The penalty for going over the first tier is only 20% for the first year. If the team is $1 million over they pay a penalty of $20000. If they go over the penalty by the maximum approx. $20 million the penalty for this is still only $4 million. If the budget is there to support going all the way up to the first tier the financial penalties are small enough that this should be little cause for concern.

[G-Snarls]

The point that I'm making is that the actual penalty for going over the initial limit is very small in the grand scheme of things. The penalty for going over the first tier is only 20% for the first year. If the team is $1 million over they pay a penalty of $20000. If they go over the penalty by the maximum approx. $20 million the penalty for this is still only $4 million. If the budget is there to support going all the way up to the first tier the financial penalties are small enough that this should be little cause for concern.

 

Yeah, you don't really suffer until you get to Mets/Cohen levels