General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Spanky99]

maybe the Jays should just sign Masataka Pedroia....Perhaps kikuchi just needs a friend to turn things around.

 

Feinsand said last night on MLB Tonight that the Jays are talking to Yoshida, but it's likely a contingency plan to Nimmo and Conforto, also if a potential trade falls through.

[Olerud363]

A single is worse than a walk. A double is worse than a single. A triple is worse than a double.. thanks tips

 

Huhh? You were the one who literally said "a walk is the worse thing that can happen".

 

If you look at the stats casts pages of guys having good years you can easily see why batting order protection isn't a thing. They cream pitches in their hot spots and hit like .450 .450 .800 or something, on tough pitches out of the zone, they don't take them 100% of the time and hit like .200 .500 .300 or something.

 

Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez had ridiculous stats in their hot spots, like .450 .450 slugging over 1000. However outside the zone they lose a lot of power, and it's not like they walk almost all the time on pitches out of the zone.

 

If Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez were hitting back to back, it wouldn't make any sense to change the pitching pattern to the one in front.

 

Here is a concrete example. Josh Donaldson 2015. One could say he won the MVP because he saw great pitches to hit with Bautista and EE behind him. Would that make any sense though?

Say hypothetically a pitching pattern existed which made Donaldson the 2014 version or the 2015 version. Why would they not use the 2014 pitching pattern all the time? It makes him a worse player.

 

It's more complicated than that in reality, just pointing out the 'logic' of lineup protection doesn't make sense.

[saskjayfan]

Feinsand said last night on MLB Tonight that the Jays are talking to Yoshida, but it's likely a contingency plan to Nimmo and Conforto, also if a potential trade falls through.

 

Seems like he would be limited to a corner outfield spot defensively, but we do have Merrifield who can play centre. Would have to be priced very attractively to consider. I keep forgetting Conforto is on the market...Hard to judge his market price.

[glory]

A lefty CF would be ideal

 

Not sure that’s likely this off season unless an Arizona trade happens. Nimmo and Kiermaier are all that’s left in free agency. My guess is KK goes to the Dodgers, and Nimmo’s price is not going to be reasonable at all. Springer in CF for one more year isn’t the worst option but it’s looking increasingly more likely barring a trade. At this rate it wouldn’t surprise me if the OF pickup is a trade for Max Kepler. Free agency is expensive and with a lot of teams having money and actually trying to field a decent team, it’s basically the opposite of what the market was like in 2020-21 when the Jays were able to flex their muscles in free agency.

[Jimcanuck]

Benintendi can play CF, less than ideally though

[Krylian]

Two time Silver Slugger established middle of the order bat is worth a lot more than a seventh inning arm and a prospect that has no command currently.

 

Why so many idiots sucking Ross' ahole?

 

It tastes like Jolly Ranchers

[Brownie19]

Benintendi can play CF, less than ideally though

 

barf.

[connorp]

Huhh? You were the one who literally said "a walk is the worse thing that can happen".

 

If you look at the stats casts pages of guys having good years you can easily see why batting order protection isn't a thing. They cream pitches in their hot spots and hit like .450 .450 .800 or something, on tough pitches out of the zone, they don't take them 100% of the time and hit like .200 .500 .300 or something.

 

Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez had ridiculous stats in their hot spots, like .450 .450 slugging over 1000. However outside the zone they lose a lot of power, and it's not like they walk almost all the time on pitches out of the zone.

 

If Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez were hitting back to back, it wouldn't make any sense to change the pitching pattern to the one in front.

 

Here is a concrete example. Josh Donaldson 2015. One could say he won the MVP because he saw great pitches to hit with Bautista and EE behind him. Would that make any sense though?

Say hypothetically a pitching pattern existed which made Donaldson the 2014 version or the 2015 version. Why would they not use the 2014 pitching pattern all the time? It makes him a worse player.

 

It's more complicated than that in reality, just pointing out the 'logic' of lineup protection doesn't make sense.

 

Perhaps I phrased it wrong. Walking a guy is “worse” simply because if you don’t walk the guy, even with good hitter, you have a 70-75% chance of getting them out. So a “free pass” as it’s called, in an undesirable outcome in most cases.

 

As for you examples, there’s nothing to spike to football with. So if a pitcher makes a mistake and leaves it in the zone, Judge kills it? But if he chases a pitch, he doesn’t? Is there a Nobel Prize here maybe? Pitchers don’t get to pick the exact spot where they place a ball. You’re not doing anything to break down the logic if you find yourself down 2-0 to Judge and nobody is behind him, you decide to stay careful, while if Alvarez is following, you’re forced to challenge him

 

Also, use broader example instead of “example X”. We can all agree statistical noise is a thing, so don’t hang your hat on it, or at least acknowledge it when you make the point

[Laika]

The protection concept comes from the old school ways of looking at the game. When people cared about RBIs.

Because if a hitter was followed by good hitters, then hitter A would not get pitched around as much so he had more RBI opportunities.

 

The protection concept classically does not really have much to do with modern conceptions of value!

 

People try to put the square, old concept into the round, modern holes all the time. It's an awkward line of discussion, always.

[connorp]

The protection concept comes from the old school ways of looking at the game. When people cared about RBIs.

Because if a hitter was followed by good hitters, then hitter A would not get pitched around as much so he had more RBI opportunities.

 

The protection concept classically does not really have much to do with modern conceptions of value!

 

People try to put the square, old concept into the round, modern holes all the time. It's an awkward line of discussion, always.

 

This doesn’t compute. A runner has a better or worse chance to score based on who is coming up. You can put that in a square or round hole

[Laika]

Does protection exist at all, today? I think it has to, logically.

 

Teams today don't think about "protection" at all but they do think and act in terms of "expected results" and they model out "expected results" for their own players and their opponents and iterate constantly to try to perform actions that have the lowest possible "expected results" for their opponents.

 

Sometimes this means pitching around hitter A to pitch to hitter B. You would do this if the expected run value of hitter A hitting against you is say 1 run but the expected value of hitter B, hitting after hitter A has walked, is 0.8 runs. This is based on their projected wOBA and run matrices.

 

Obviously, if the difference in talent between hitter A and hitter B is large, you would see this type of action by opponents more often.

 

So it stands to basic reason that if Hitter A benefits from having a Hitter B behind him who is just as good, that Hitter A will not suffer these slight reductions in his production by having the chance to hit essentially taken away from him. Like, if they pitch around him he gets credit for 0.1 runs for the walk, but maybe his "expected" production if pitched to is 0.2 runs - this means if he gets pitched to all the time in these scenarios over the course of a season his wOBA will literally be higher!

 

We have just proven that protection exists, on first principles!

[connorp]

I can’t claim to have been involved with baseball past competitive 18u but there’s some basic baseball concepts anyone can understand. Like if you’re pitching to the worst hitter on the team in the #9 hole, how frustrating is that when he walks and a good top of the order is coming up. As a fan when it’s 2-0, are you not like “throw a f***ing strike”

[connorp]

I concede that point is crossing a lane actually

 

In that part of it has to do with the batter sucking… but it still gives you a general understanding of the fact that sometimes walks are amplified in game situations

 

Like you’re up two, now you walk #3 hitter and #4 can tie it

[Laika]

I can’t claim to have been involved with baseball past competitive 18u but there’s some basic baseball concepts anyone can understand. Like if you’re pitching to the worst hitter on the team in the #9 hole, how frustrating is that when he walks and a good top of the order is coming up. As a fan when it’s 2-0, are you not like “throw a f***ing strike”

 

Yeah but this stuff has almost nothing to do with "protection" and everything to do with the facts that:

 

1. mosquito hitters suck at hitting

2. mosquito pitchers suck at throwing strikes

 

So you basically ALWAYS want the 9 year old to just throw strikes and make the other kids swing the bat.

[connorp]

Yeah but this stuff has almost nothing to do with "protection" and everything to do with the facts that:

 

1. mosquito hitters suck at hitting

2. mosquito pitchers suck at throwing strikes

 

So you basically ALWAYS want the 9 year old to just throw strikes and make the other kids swing the bat.

 

I realized the hole in the point. Anyways, I think you peeps just enjoy finding anything you consider old school, and destroying it, even if there’s nothing conclusive proving your point

[Laika]

I realized the hole in the point. Anyways, I think you peeps just enjoy finding anything you consider old school, and destroying it, even if there’s nothing conclusive proving your point

 

I literally just come her to make you smarter. I am trying to sharpen you like a stubby pencil, so you can land a wife.

[Brownie19]

I realized the hole in the point. Anyways, I think you peeps just enjoy finding anything you consider old school, and destroying it, even if there’s nothing conclusive proving your point

 

You mean like studies that show it has little to no effect? I completely agree that logically, it exists - but the stats just don't support it to the magnitude you would expect - hence the hesitation my some. Now perhaps the studies are outdated and don't reflect the metrics that MLB teams actually use (like the ones that Laika suggests).

[Jonn]

Apparently the Jays were a finalist on Kenley Jansen.

[MON4NHLTOR4MLB]

Of course they were, they always are. Aggressive run suppression or whatever they want to say

[Eat My Shatkins]

Haha, well hopefully the Jays land somebody they are after.

[BTS]

Apparently the Jays were a finalist on Kenley Jansen.

 

I have not enjoyed the rumours that Toronto has been a finalist on Jansen and Gibson

[Horses Fart]

Apparently the Jays were a finalist on Kenley Jansen.

 

Finalist on everyone sure u knows that. Lol not that I’d want him.

[max silver]

I have not enjoyed the rumours that Toronto has been a finalist on Jansen and Gibson

 

I wouldn't have been particularly thrilled about either of these guys accepting the Jays offer either, so nothing lost, nothing gained.

[L54]

I have not enjoyed the rumours that Toronto has been a finalist on Jansen and Gibson

 

At this rate they’re gonna end up with Greinke

[Ehjays]

At this rate they’re gonna end up with Greinke

 

Or....and its a big OR the market keeps increasing so much that even Kikuchis contract is attractive and teams are banging down our bullpen door to get him.

[Krylian]

I have not enjoyed the rumours that Toronto has been a finalist on Jansen and Gibson

 

Jays are always in on everyone.

[The Cats Ass]

At this rate they’re gonna end up with Greinke

 

I think I'd be alright with Greinke on a cheap 1 year deal to be our #5. Throw him in there until Tiedemann comes up. He'd be a better bet than some of the #5s we had to start other years.

[Ehjays]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/the-opener-giants-rule-5-mid-rotation-market.html

 

 

The Opener: Giants, Rule 5, Mid-Rotation Market

By Nick Deeds | December 7, 2022 at 10:27am CDT

 

The stove is so hot that we couldn’t even get this post out this morning! Judge, Quintana, Jansen, Contreras! Here’s what else we’re looking at:

 

1. How Will The Giants React To Missing Out On Judge?

 

Perhaps the biggest news of the offseason came in this morning, as reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees on a monster contract. In yesterday’s Opener, we discussed how the Judge decision was likely holding up most of the remaining top players on the market. With Judge’s decision now made, it’s possible we’ll see movement on other top players, and any such movement will likely involve the Giants and Padres, the losing bidders on Judge. The Giants signed Mitch Haniger last night, but San Francisco will likely be thinking much bigger with regard to future pursuits, as they’ve been connected to Carlos Correa at the top of the shortstop market, have interest in bringing back Carlos Rodón, the top pitcher left on the market, and may turn to Brandon Nimmo in their pursuit of a second outfield signing. Nimmo, of course, is the top outfield free agent available now that Judge has signed. With the Giants reportedly having offered Judge a deal in the range of $360MM, they should have plenty of money available for pursuits of any of these top free agents.

 

2. The Rule 5 Draft Is Today

 

The Winter Meetings are set to end today, and they’ll likely feature the same flurry of activity the past two days had. Today won’t be entirely the same, however, as the Rule 5 draft will occur at 4 PM CT this afternoon. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Teams must have space on their 40-man to accommodate their Rule 5 selections. Currently, the 40-man rosters of the Angels, D-Backs, Rangers, Rays and Royals are full. This year’s Rule 5 draft is of particular note because the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft did not occur last year, leaving more players than usual freshly vulnerable in the draft this time. Between the Rule 5 draft and a likely third straight busy day of rumors and signings, the final day of this year’s Winter Meetings looks to be one to watch. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings.

 

3. Who’s Left On The Mid-Rotation Market?

 

Yesterday saw the market for mid-rotation starters heat up in a big way, as the Rangers signed Andrew Heaney, the Phillies inked Taijuan Walker and the Cubs landed Jameson Taillon. It isn’t slowing down today, with the Mets and José Quintana agreeing on a deal. Walker and Taillon landed similar deals of four years, with Walker’s $72MM slightly outdoing Taillon’s $68MM, while Heaney took a different approach to his free agency, settling for a guarantee of just two years, $25MM in order to secure an opt-out that will allow him to test free agency again next offseason if he so chooses. In any case, the deals indicate that the market has gotten much stronger for mid-rotation starters since Tyler Anderson’s three year, $39MM deal with the Angels last month. With prices soaring, the supply of mid-rotation options in free agency is shrinking rapidly, with Kodai Senga and Chris Bassitt the best options remaining behind Rodón, the last remaining ace. Looking a bit further down the free agency tier list, the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea also remain on the market. Any of these pitchers could see their markets heat up as the Winter Meetings come to a close, now that the mid-rotation market has been established and their fellow free agents are beginning to sign.

[Laika]

I think I'd be alright with Greinke on a cheap 1 year deal to be our #5. Throw him in there until Tiedemann comes up. He'd be a better bet than some of the #5s we had to start other years.

 

100%

[Ehjays]

https://www.si.com/mlb/bluejays/news/blue-jays-40-man-roster-add-zulueta-martinez-rule-5

 

Some notable names were left off Toronto's 40-man roster, and will be exposed in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft, including:

 

INF Tanner Morris

RP Adrian Hernandez

OF Gabriel Martinez

P Jimmy Robbins

P Adam Kloffenstein

 

These players were not seen as locks to make the 40-man roster, and are by no means guaranteed losses in the Rule 5 draft. Even some highly regarded prospects, like Gabriel Martinez, may have been left off the 40-man because young age and lack of experience in the upper minors makes it hard for an opposing team to snatch away in the Rule 5 and keep them on an MLB roster all season