General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Stangstag]

Vlad will be a FA at age 26 going into his age 27 season. Bichette at age 27 going into his age 28 season. So on top of being sons of rich former MLB players, they also know they won't be old as f when they reach free agency. I still think the Jays end up signing/extending Vlad, and losing Bichette to free agency, but I'm basing that off nothing.

 

That's always been my guess too. Vlad has kids already. He'll want security

[Masterbather]

I think a Biggio - Merrifield 2B platoon is the way to go, going forward. Espinal supersub.

 

I think it's a bit much to jump the gun on the Merrifield love. Espinal had himself been hitting better before the injury and he has very good at bats, is reliable to hit and run with, is obviously an excellent defender.

 

I don't dislike Whit, and I knew he had more in him than what he had shown, I think there was an adjustment period for him. He can still be valuable, but I'm not willing to jump head first on him just yet.

 

By the way, is there anybody on this team that can bunt? Can Whit? Like, I don't expect to do it often, but there will be one or two times that it could be the difference between winning and losing in a tight playoff game and even our s*** hitters apparently can't do it to save their lives.

[Captain_Obvious]

Ignore or discount 2020, won't factor into contracts

 

Vlad and Soto are virtually equal in WAR last 2 years, Vlad is the better defender by far, but WAR doesn't reward that value because its terrible at capturing 1B value. Vlad is an comparable hitter to Soto. GB% is only 1% off for their careers and Vlad is a better runner with more SBs this year. Vlad with better power, speed, defense, production (RBIs and R), Vlad doesn't walk as much is the difference. Get use to the fact that it isn't going to be a discount unless Vlad and Bo and the team agree to it so both Vlad and Bo can sign long term (or room to sign others). It won't be because of the weight fallacy or misplaced recency bias from this year. What he is doing this year alone is worth 20-30M a year long term. What he did last year is 30M +. It won't be add up career WAR and give x amount per WAR

 

If you want to look at Riley's contract as comparable, it was super discounted because ATL had no more money it was pretty much the most he could get and stay with ATL.

 

Soto is going to get a crazy amount per year and Vlad will easily get a lot.

 

Vlad at 10/225-250M makes sense and should allow them to sign Bo, but maybe the team needs it lower. Vlad is worth 10/300M though

 

My whole point is people not wanting a 10 year contract because of Vlad's weight his rookie year means jack s***, wanting a lower contract because he is a 3 WAR player this year means jack s*** (at minimum avg last year and this year, true long term value probably in the middle closer to last season), people should also be aware of the issues WAR has in terms of defensive value at 1B and that a gold glove winning Vlad would negate that depreciated value by WAR contract wise. If there is a discount it will be because they are allowing room for more additions/signing Bo long term

 

Also we know what Soto turned down...not asked for

 

If you're not happy with WAR evaluation for 1B, I am happy to use offensive stats only. Vlad is 7th this year among 1Bs with little separation between him and 13th place. He is the MLB leader in GIDP and 5th worst 1B in base running. Basically, Vlad has been an average 1B at best this year. Objectively speaking, it would be extremely stupid to give Vlad a mega contract based on recent and career numbers. Anything more than the Matt Olson's extension would be an overpay.

[Daniel Labude]

If you're not happy with WAR evaluation for 1B, I am happy to use offensive stats only. Vlad is 7th this year among 1Bs with little separation between him and 13th place. He is the MLB leader in GIDP and 5th worst 1B in base running. Basically, Vlad has been an average 1B at best this year. Objectively speaking, it would be extremely stupid to give Vlad a mega contract based on recent and career numbers. Anything more than the Matt Olson's extension would be an overpay.

 

Top 30 overall in wRC+ of qualified hitters as a 23 year old...nice try lmao. Let reality kick in

[Jimcanuck]

This offseason is perfect timing to give Vlad a multi year. His true talent is somewhere between 2021 and 2022 results, and probably closer to 2021.

[Grant77]

This offseason is perfect timing to give Vlad a multi year. His true talent is somewhere between 2021 and 2022 results, and probably closer to 2021.

 

Agreed. People just don't seem to grasp how much age matters with players like this and are evaluating him like he's 27 years old or something.

[G-Snarls]

This offseason is perfect timing to give Vlad a multi year. His true talent is somewhere between 2021 and 2022 results, and probably closer to 2021.

 

100%. I would do it this off season. Seems the ideal time to do it.

[BigCecil]

 

Also we know what Soto turned down...not asked for

 

Lots of people make stupid offers in this game that get signed/turned down, and lots of people turn down offers they should accept. What was then is not necessarily now.

[Captain_Obvious]

Top 30 overall in wRC+ of qualified hitters as a 23 year old...nice try lmao. Let reality kick in

 

But he is regressing. He is fat and the 10th worse base runner among qualified players. He is also #1 in GIDP. For a 1B. He is ... average overall. There is a reason he has less than 3 WAR this year.

 

23 years old means nothing if the player is getting worse.

[G-Snarls]

So, what Jays pitcher gives up #61 to Judge this week?

 

I vote Kikuchi

[G-Snarls]

But he is regressing. He is fat and the 10th worse base runner among qualified players. He is also #1 in GIDP. For a 1B. He is ... average overall. There is a reason he has less than 3 WAR this year.

 

23 years old means nothing if the player is getting worse.

 

He has also shown an ability to get in better shape when motivated and this mediocre season should be motivating

 

I'm sure weight and conditioning will always be a struggle but I think Vladdy has many great seasons ahead of him

Edited September 26, 2022 by G-Snarls

[Solaxys]

So, what Jays pitcher gives up #61 to Judge this week?

 

I vote Kikuchi

 

Berrios with his 29 HRs given up this year looking pretty good to be the candidate

[glory]

So, what Jays pitcher gives up #61 to Judge this week?

 

I vote Kikuchi

 

Berrios starts tomorrow, so he's my guess.

[Carlos Danger]

So, what Jays pitcher gives up #61 to Judge this week?

 

I vote Kikuchi

 

Richards

[Grant77]

So, what Jays pitcher gives up #61 to Judge this week?

 

I vote Kikuchi

 

None

[Daniel Labude]

So, what Jays pitcher gives up #61 to Judge this week?

 

I vote Kikuchi

 

61 and 62 to Berrios

[Stangstag]

So, what Jays pitcher gives up #61 to Judge this week?

 

I vote Kikuchi

 

You know it’ll be Berrios

[G-Snarls]

You know it’ll be Berrios

 

Sigh. You're probably right.

[Jonn]

Don't forget Mitch White and Jose Berrios.

 

Mitch “f***ing” White

 

But my money is on Trevor Richards.

[BigCecil]

Agreed. People just don't seem to grasp how much age matters with players like this and are evaluating him like he's 27 years old or something.

 

In principle sure. But it also matters if the player is actually performing and getting better.

 

It also matters that we would be buying out 2 arb years, at a premium eliminating risk for the player...injury and/or poor performance.

[Grant77]

In principle sure. But it also matters if the player is actually performing and getting better.

 

It also matters that we would be buying out 2 arb years at most likely a premium eliminating risk for the player...injury and/or poor performance.

 

As Ross Atkins has said multiple times, progression isn't linear. We forget how young Vlad is and just how good his 2021 season was. It would be nearly unprecedented for a player that young and that good to fail to live up to expectations. It just almost never happens.

 

We can't make predictions until we see what he asks for, but I have an extremely high degree of confidence that 2021 will be the norm for Vlad once he enters his prime.

[Deadpool]

Kikuchi will be too afraid to pitch to Judge. He's more likely to hit him with a pitch.

 

If Kooch hits him and breaks his hand or something that would be absolutely hilarious.

 

To me anyway, I'm sure the vast majority of people wouldn't find that funny, but I would!

[Spanky99]

So, what Jays pitcher gives up #61 to Judge this week?

 

I vote Kikuchi

 

#61 HR ball is estimated to go for a Million dollars. Someone might be walking out of the RC a happy camper.

[Deadpool]

Jealous?

 

What the f*** would I be jealous of? Christ you've quickly become one of the most insufferable f***wits around here. Great jorb.

[Spanky99]

What the f*** would I be jealous of? Christ you've quickly become one of the most insufferable f***wits around here. Great jorb.

 

He's already been perma'd on here twice, juniourfelix54, bruh.

[Omar]

Romano is going to give it up to Judge. A slider, middle-middle:p

[BigCecil]

As Ross Atkins has said multiple times, progression isn't linear. We forget how young Vlad is and just how good his 2021 season was. It would be nearly unprecedented for a player that young and that good to fail to live up to expectations. It just almost never happens.

 

We can't make predictions until we see what he asks for, but I have an extremely high degree of confidence that 2021 will be the norm for Vlad once he enters his prime.

 

Sure. Ross says a lot of purified and sanitized things. At the end of the day it's a bet with the best risk assessment available. Just always question of how big a bet this org or others want to make. They have made a few big ones. If his ask is reasonable I'd love to see him stay a long time.

[Stangstag]

His skill and money? I don't know? Why else would anyone wish injury on someone?

 

Nice Deadpool avatar... do you like getting pegged like him as well?

 

You sure like talking about dicks, bukakke, pegging…. Projecting a bit eh?

[Solaxys]

Sure. Ross says a lot of purified and sanitized things. At the end of the day it's a bet with the best risk assessment available. Just always question of how big a bet this org or others want to make. They have made a few big ones. If his ask is reasonable I'd love to see him stay a long time.

 

Pretty much this; if its team-friendly, sure take him. If his projected value is between 3 - 6 WAR per season, and the deal matches that, you take that.

You just don't sign him to a long contract with big numbers off of one MVP season, that is a recipe for disaster.

 

They can also make it a creative contract as with JRod - base salary is w.e, but a lot of bonuses based on performance, athleticism, ASG/MVP bids etc.

If he loves the city/the team, as he claims, then he'll sign such a contract as the money quota will meet what he wants as long as he performs.

[Deadpool]

He's already been perma'd on here twice, juniourfelix54, bruh.

 

Yeah, I'm sure one of us will get bored with his tired nonsense sooner or later and ban him again. It's not like he can control himself or engage intelligently with anyone around here.