General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Stangstag]

Why do you have to get a discount? It can just be a fair deal.

 

Arb projections:

 

2023 $13M

2024 $19M

2025 $25M

 

(source: I made them up)

 

Production projection:

 

2023 - 6 WAR

24 - 6 WAR

25 - 6 WAR

26 - 6 WAR - age 27 season = physical peak so start decline

27 - 5.5 WAR

28 - 5 WAR

29 - 4 WAR

30 - 3 WAR

31 - 2 WAR = age 32 so let's assume significant injury and he is done

32 - 0 WAR

 

Total = 43.5 WAR

 

(source: I made these up)

 

If you give him the arb numbers and then tack on 30M AAV for 7 years the total contract is $267M

 

That's 6.14M per projected WAR which is pretty nice. Under market value. And no consideration for having a homegrown marketable superstar for so long.

 

And that aging curve I did is pretty harsh. Like, it assumes no MVP seasons and hard decline. He could have some 8 WAR seasons and stay great into his 30s.

 

I think it would be extremely foolish to expect Vlad to be putting up multiple 6 WAR seasons at this point.

 

He simply does not deserve a contract over 200 million based on his career numbers as a whole at this stage.

 

Maybe he puts up another 6 WAR season. Maybe he never does. I'd rather wait and see. I'd rather pay 350 million for a proven 6 WAR guy vs overpaying 250 mil for a 3-4 WAR first baseman that still has 4 years of control left. Wait and see.

[Stangstag]

I think we just all miss the Vlad from 2021, who collectively accumulated 3.03 WPA for the first half of the season, where he is at 0.67 now.

 

Aside from his 3-HR game against Cole, nothing he has done comes to mind immediately and starkly. The single that won the Sox game was all right, but its not a exclamation point.

All I remember him this year for is his celebrations, media quotes, and balls going through his glove.

Might be logical fallacy, but personally that's it.

 

Vlad was an absolute feared hitter last year even when he was slumping; this year, not so much, everyone knows the 'trick' to get him out or at least get him to ground out.

He's late on hanging sliders/middle-middle fastballs (if you look at his splits, his pull% is down by 4 while his centerfield% is up by 6% - so things that could be HRs are just warning-track flyouts), gets Teo-esque levels of fooled by away/down pitches (O-swing went by 5%), GB% still 7% higher than last year (closer to 2019/2020 than last year), his soft-contact overall went up by 6% while hard contact went down because he is chasing those outside pitches, grounded into 14 DPs (when he only did 20 the entirety of last year).

 

Shrugs. 'Field' metrics do not change any of those %s (so we can't attribute it to AAA park that most of baseball likes to say).

Not sure what changed, why his stance changed (and changed AGAIN like a week and a half ago), why he regressed to 2020 shenanigans and hasn't adapted despite having 300+ PAs already, etc. etc. etc.

The entire expectation of WS was predicated on Vladdy being 2021 Vladdy, so understandably when he isn't performing to that level, we should all lower our expectations for the ballclub as well.

 

That 8th inning 3-pitch K BS is still in my mind; perfect time to do damage and take the lead and he just went up there guessing on 3 pitches against a 10 ERA pitcher.

You just expect more from your two-time all-star "hitting savant with mammoth power".

 

Wow thats.... yeesh.

[Solaxys]

I remember Pat Tabler saying once on broadcast which I thought was the smartest thing he has ever said live.

 

Paraphrased: for a player to be considered bad, good, or elite at the MLB level, he has to show it in back-to-back years.

 

You look at Miggy's statsheet, he has had 3 straight great years (ages 22-24), and then 8 straight elite years (ages 26 - 33). Unreal.

[Stangstag]

Vlad is the best prospect turned player that the Blue Jays have really ever produced, on the hitting side of things.

 

The numbers don't have to make you super comfortable.

 

If you think they should not lock him up for a decade you can't be helped. Like, you have your head up your ass and your priorities need to be rearranged.

 

Dumnnnn. Vlad does not deserve 200 million

[Stangstag]

Yea, but that’s paying fair market prices. So, just wait until 2026 and pay fair market prices then. Same difference, less risk.

 

Exactly. I don't understand the rush to extend any of these guys. But I tend to be a more risk averse type of person. We all thought the Berrios contract was a slam dunk and its already not looking good. Berrios' track record is far better than Vlad's

[Jonn]

This is a good discussion IMO happening here. Vlad we have seen has the type of talent to put up 190 wRC+ for 6 weeks. If he does that in the 2nd half our recency bias would probably be leaning more to GET THE CHECK BOOK OUT NOW. I hope he does because if he remains under 130 wRC+ we aren't going anywhere in 22.

 

Bryce Harper is great example of my point. Sure he’s had some very good seasons. But he has never even been remotely close to the near 10 WAR he achieved in his age 22 Season. Last year was actually the closest he has been and was still more than 3 WAR off his total.

 

So far Vlad has had one crazy outlier season otherwise he’s been who he was for his other 3 MLB seasons. I don’t know why we are assuming because of his age that he will ever achieve that level of elite again. And paying for that now seems foolish knowing how much control he still has and projecting the kind of contract he would command now compared to in 3 years would probably be similar if not less depending on how he performs.

 

The window for an early Vlad contract extension expired a long time ago. You’re now paying a premium regardless of when you choose to sign him. I don’t think they should be in any hurry to rush that decision.

[Stangstag]

There are risks there.

 

1. He tests the market and ends up a Yankee

2. He is a beast in his walk year and commands 10/300 after his final arb season. That's gross.

 

1. Then outbid the Yankees or let THEM sign him to a "gross" contract.

 

2. I would rather pay 300/10 for a free-agent proven Vlad than 250 mil right now.

[Dagagad]

1. Then outbid the Yankees or let THEM sign him to a "gross" contract.

 

2. I would rather pay 300/10 for a free-agent proven Vlad than 250 mil right now.

 

Yea, the yanks signing someone to a bad contract is a good thing.

[Olerud363]

Vlad is the best prospect turned player that the Blue Jays have really ever produced, on the hitting side of things.

 

The numbers don't have to make you super comfortable.

 

If you think they should not lock him up for a decade you can't be helped. Like, you have your head up your ass and your priorities need to be rearranged.

 

Vlad 1st 4 seasons (20-23) = -0.2, 0.2, 6.3, 3.1 (extrapolated) - Total = 9.4

Olerud 1st 4 seasons (21-24) = 1.4, 2.5, 3.1, 8.1 - Total = 16.1

 

Olerud finished with 57.3 fWAR. Will Vlad beat that?

 

Olerud's platoon season in 1992 was better than Vlad's 2022 pace. Olerud's part time 1st 2 seasons were better than Vlad's.

 

Olerud's MVP type season in 1993 was 2 WAR better than Vlad's 2021.

 

Olerud is the best player the Jays have developed, has the best first 4 seasons and Vlad will have a tough time beating his career WAR total.

[Solaxys]

Bro, you lost me at " I remember Pat Tabler saying once" lol

 

Just that one time, it was something good/reasonable. Just once though.

[Solaxys]

Vlad 1st 4 seasons (20-23) = -0.2, 0.2, 6.3, 3.1 (extrapolated) - Total = 9.4

Olerud 1st 4 seasons (21-24) = 1.4, 2.5, 3.1, 8.1 - Total = 16.1.

 

I'd suggest just looking at oWAR since Vlad's defensive issues really didn't help the last three years, where he definitely has gotten better this year.

 

Olreud: 1.6, 1.3, 3.1, 7.5 = 13.5 over 2178 PA (0.0062)

Vladdy: 2.3, 1.0, 6.6, 1.6

Extrapolating 2020 and this year to full 162 + rounding up for benefit of doubt: 2.3, 2.7, 6.6, 2.9 = 14.5 over 2556 PA (0.0057)

 

---

 

At the end of the day, if Vladdy does not figure out how to get his GB% back down and recognize pitches like last year, not sure he's going to be worth the premium.

The Jays don't have the capital to compensate for mistakes (like the Yankees/Dodgers or Mets this year do) and considering we have some heavy contracts already and contracts coming off in 2024 that need more influx of cash to capitalize two more years of contention, we better be damn sure Vlad is worth the capital and will produce 5-6 WAR as he is projected to rather than 2-3 WAR.

[Olerud363]

I'd suggest just looking at oWAR since Vlad's defensive issues really didn't the last three years, where he definitely has gotten better this year.

 

Olreud: 1.6, 1.3, 3.1, 7.5 = 13.5 over 2178 PA (0.0062)

Vladdy: 2.3, 1.0, 6.6, 1.6

Extrapolating 2020 and this year to full 162 + rounding up for benefit of doubt: 2.3, 2.7, 6.6, 2.9 = 14.5 over 2556 PA (0.0057)

 

Hard for me to really picture what Vlad is. Watching him on TV 2019/2020/2022 he looks like he has a 45 "hit" tool.

 

Like he has an average hit tool with elite max exit velocity.

 

When I hear "elite" hit tool I think of Kirk, or Olerud. Guys with low k-rate, don't swing at a ball, don't over-swing. But they probably do it at the expense of a bit of power.

 

I kind of wonder what Vlad would be like if he gave up on every trying to hit 118 mphers... and just toned it down a bit and tried for more contact. Like we just saw him hit a 400 foot homerun with half a swing. What if approached things more like Kirk does? Or Olerud did? Way bigger and stronger then either of those guys so could probably still crank 30 homers with a contact based approach.

 

Not that I know anything except from watching TV, looking at fangraphs, and listening to great insight from Pat Tabler.

[Spanky99]

[Daniel Labude]

Harper 197 wRC+ at 22. 111 wRC+ at 23

 

Soto 163 w RC+ at 22. Currently 151 wRC+ raised 25 in the last 2 weeks. Basically mirrored Vlad except turned it around recently

 

Acuna only 1 season over 111 games. Went from 157 wRC+ at 23 last season to 123 wRC+ this year at 24

 

Jose Rameriz had a 119 wRC+ at 23

 

Tatis has played 84, 59, 130, 0 games

 

Devers 132 wRC+ at 22 and 107 wRC+ at 23

 

Basically it comes down to league adjustments and then player adjustments. Vlad has been super aggressive this year compared to a selective aggression last season. This has even varied throughout the season. He will figure it out and get locked in. Will it be the next AB or in the playoffs or next season. Don't know, but 100% he is fine and worth the money and long term deal

[Solaxys]

Hard for me to really picture what Vlad is. Watching him on TV 2019/2020/2022 he looks like he has a 45 "hit" tool.

 

Like he has an average hit tool with elite max exit velocity.

 

When I hear "elite" hit tool I think of Kirk, or Olerud. Guys with low k-rate, don't swing at a ball, don't over-swing. But they probably do it at the expense of a bit of power.

 

I kind of wonder what Vlad would be like if he gave up on every trying to hit 118 mphers... and just toned it down a bit and tried for more contact. Like we just saw him hit a 400 foot homerun with half a swing. What if approached things more like Kirk does? Or Olerud did? Way bigger and stronger then either of those guys so could probably still crank 30 homers with a contact based approach.

 

Obviously this can be an absolute horrible take, but the Vlad I saw last year is not the Vlad this year.

 

He was pretty close to Kirk last year: 12.3% BB rate, 15.8% K Rate

This year, he's chasing like he can hit any bad pitch out of the park (like his dad) and its getting exploited. He hasn't stopped doing it. He is guessing a lot of the time instead of taking a solid approach of sitting on the pitches he can drive and walking otherwise (like Kirk does, like he did last year).

 

I don't know what the physics of launch angle issue is but you don't go through a full season of 700 PAs and forget how to do it again, that like makes 0 sense.

You don't fix something mechanically, have a MVP season, and then forget how to do it.

 

Maybe he got lazy over the offseason? maybe he thinks he has it made? maybe the league has indeed cracked him and he can't get it together? is 2019/2020 vlad the actual vlad and he got lucky last year?

 

Who knows. I hope he figures it out. But until he does, a contract is a bad idea. If he does, then f*** it, pay the premium and sign him.

[Daniel Labude]

The difference in Vlad's overall numbers has been his use of the opposite field and specifically power to the opposite field. When he starts hitting the ball with power to RC and RF his numbers will start jumping up imo

 

 

[Dagagad]

Harper 197 wRC+ at 22. 111 wRC+ at 23

 

Soto 163 w RC+ at 22. Currently 151 wRC+ raised 25 in the last 2 weeks. Basically mirrored Vlad except turned it around recently

 

Acuna only 1 season over 111 games. Went from 157 wRC+ at 23 last season to 123 wRC+ this year at 24

 

Jose Rameriz had a 119 wRC+ at 23

 

Tatis has played 84, 59, 130, 0 games

 

Devers 132 wRC+ at 22 and 107 wRC+ at 23

 

Basically it comes down to league adjustments and then player adjustments. Vlad has been super aggressive this year compared to a selective aggression last season. This has even varied throughout the season. He will figure it out and get locked in. Will it be the next AB or in the playoffs or next season. Don't know, but 100% he is fine and worth the money and long term deal

 

Sounds great. Give me the acuna or Ramirez deal.

[JFD]

But as an MLB player Vlad is so far closer to Fielder.

 

Yeah, Cecil Fielder

[Olerud363]

I'd suggest just looking at oWAR since Vlad's defensive issues really didn't help the last three years, where he definitely has gotten better this year.

 

Olreud: 1.6, 1.3, 3.1, 7.5 = 13.5 over 2178 PA (0.0062)

Vladdy: 2.3, 1.0, 6.6, 1.6

Extrapolating 2020 and this year to full 162 + rounding up for benefit of doubt: 2.3, 2.7, 6.6, 2.9 = 14.5 over 2556 PA (0.0057)

 

---

 

At the end of the day, if Vladdy does not figure out how to get his GB% back down and recognize pitches like last year, not sure he's going to be worth the premium.

The Jays don't have the capital to compensate for mistakes (like the Yankees/Dodgers or Mets this year do) and considering we have some heavy contracts already and contracts coming off in 2024 that need more influx of cash to capitalize two more years of contention, we better be damn sure Vlad is worth the capital and will produce 5-6 WAR as he is projected to rather than 2-3 WAR.

 

That's a good point, but where are you getting oWAR from?

 

Fangraphs has Vlad (on offense) as -3.4, 2.2, 54.1 and 9.7 this year.

 

Olerud as 9.4, 8.8, 16.6, and 65.7.

 

Olerud was platooned and more from 94 to 96... but had a good 6 year run from 97 to 2003

 

Will Vlad's 5 best seasons (doesn't have to be consecutive) be better then Olerud's. Olerud's are 8.1, 8.1, 5.8, 4.6 and 4.5.

[Solaxys]

That's a good point, but where are you getting oWAR from?

 

bref; I don't think the Off on fangraphs is actually a WAR metric.

[Daniel Labude]

Sounds great. Give me the acuna or Ramirez deal.

 

Acuna was an idiot on his deal and Rameriz took a cheap ass deal cause he plays on a cheap team. Not gonna work

[Olerud363]

Yeah, Cecil Fielder

 

 

No. Cecil Fielder had a weird career. People were pretty stupid up to the mid 90s and there are all kinds of stories of guys losing half their career or more for no reason.

 

Fielder made it to the majors at 21, and did good enough, but never given more than 200 PAs then sold to Japan. Didn't get a real chance until age 26. We have no idea what Cecil would have done with 650 PAs at Vladdy's age... well maybe we do. He probably would have hit like Vladdy 2022... and actually he did about that in like 25% playing time. They really just sat him there most of the time using up service time. In 87 they sat Cecil and McGriff a lot, and lost the pennant while playing Willie Upshaw and other garbage at DH/1b.

 

Prince and Vladdy are very close on offense. Like swithcing between .300 and home run title and .260 with 35 homers the next year. Prince Fielder and Vladdy seasons have the same vibe so far.

[Olerud363]

bref; I don't think the Off on fangraphs is actually a WAR metric.

 

I know that. It is a runs above average. Just saying that on fangraphs Olerud is ahead when looking at their 'offense only' statistic. Though it does include base running.

 

And Olerud gets an edge in base running even though he is super slow he just didn't do anything stupid ever.

 

Kind of telling that Olerud is ahead in baserunning, defense, and k/bb ratio even though he was less athletic (well he had great hand eye coordination and intelligence, but was way less explosive then Vlad).

[Dagagad]

Acuna was an idiot on his deal and Rameriz took a cheap ass deal cause he plays on a cheap team. Not gonna work

 

If vlad wants a fair deal 3 years away from FA, then he can wait another couple of years.

[Stangstag]

Harper 197 wRC+ at 22. 111 wRC+ at 23

 

Soto 163 w RC+ at 22. Currently 151 wRC+ raised 25 in the last 2 weeks. Basically mirrored Vlad except turned it around recently

 

Acuna only 1 season over 111 games. Went from 157 wRC+ at 23 last season to 123 wRC+ this year at 24

 

Jose Rameriz had a 119 wRC+ at 23

 

Tatis has played 84, 59, 130, 0 games

 

Devers 132 wRC+ at 22 and 107 wRC+ at 23

 

Basically it comes down to league adjustments and then player adjustments. Vlad has been super aggressive this year compared to a selective aggression last season. This has even varied throughout the season. He will figure it out and get locked in. Will it be the next AB or in the playoffs or next season. Don't know, but 100% he is fine and worth the money and long term deal

 

All of those players play more important positions and aren’t restricted to 1B/DH.

 

And Vlad rebounding is not a given. I feel like he will, but the risk in signing him long term is too great IMO

[Solaxys]

Kenny Ken says the Reds are asking for Volpe and Oswald Pereza for Castillo from the Yanks whom have said that ain't happening, so there's the asking price, ATM.

 

Good for Reds tbh. The market is saturated with the additional playoff spot and so every MLB-proven trade chip is going to be priced to hell and beyond.

I would do the same, just to see which team is desperate enough and take the massive haul for rebuild.

 

Also why, it is seemingly only Dodgers who have the best shot at signing him cause they can lose Pepiot or Pages and not really blink an eye.

We have quite a few 'trending down' prospects though, maybe we can get it done like with Berrios last year.

[Spanky99]

Good for Reds tbh. The market is saturated with the additional playoff spot and so every MLB-proven trade chip is going to be priced to hell and beyond.

I would do the same, just to see which team is desperate enough and take the massive haul for rebuild.

 

Also why, it is seemingly only Dodgers who have the best shot at signing him cause they can lose Pepiot or Pages and not really blink an eye.

We have quite a few 'trending down' prospects though, maybe we can get it done like with Berrios last year.

 

Yeah, don't blame em, he's been really good and the best arm available, I don't think we need him, barring injury of course. Some one like Quintana makes sense.

[Spanky99]

Soooo... it's safe to say Rosenthal's showcase sucked balls, or that leg cramp turned into something far more serious, right?

[Solaxys]

Someone make a GDT; I lost yesterday

 

Gosh, fine.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Solaxys

[Jonn]

Soooo... it's safe to say Rosenthal's showcase sucked balls, or that leg cramp turned into something far more serious, right?

 

Considering the bottom of the barrel they are currently trotting out there. I would take a flier on him regardless. Give him in MLB deal. Get that arm in the organization. Atleast he would be someone with the potential to miss bats