General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Solaxys]

I don’t care about WAR. I care if a reliever can strike people out or not in high leverage. If most of your relievers habitually give up decent contact, then you are going to give up runs in high leverage.

 

If there is a guy on third and one out, can you get a strikeout? If there is a guy on second, with no outs, is your best option a guy like Phelps who anyone can at least put the ball in play against?

 

If I’m the Yankees, I absolutely want cimber (such a different look after a starter) and romano (even though romano hasn’t been good this season) and that’s probably it.

 

I’d swap our entire bullpen for the Yankees right now and they can keep Holmes. I’ll just take the rest.

 

The problem by the way isn’t that our manager wants to be the rays, it’s that the rays front office is capable of giving their manager a good pen.

 

This is such a bad way of looking at things though and you'll always be disappointed. Teams are run differently by different FOs.

Atkins is not going to copy/paste the Yankees FO because its different markets, different atmospheres and different available players.

 

If you actually break down Yankees BP to our BP KK/9, the outliers are Holmes/King. Short of that, we have comparable alternates to them - only two relievers have 1 extra K/9 (Castillo/Green v Garcia/Mayza).

Like did you know, Trevor Richards has 10.36 K/9 across almost 30 innings pitched? More than every single Yankees reliever K/9 except King?

 

Our relievers have 50 extra innings compared to the Yankees.

Yankees predominantly used King/Holmes (34%) while we peppered our usage across every one (only two relievers above 30, Trent being the most at 32).

 

Telling you man, our BP sucks because

1. two-three arms who straight up suck (just don't have the pitches to be relievers in AL East)

2. some who have forgotten how to not walk people/locate (especially Romano of late - he f***ed up his release point for slider and is paying the price)

3. unlucky/injuries/overuse/mismanagement

 

But we also had some good things like Gage, Cimber (even though his ERA is close to 4), Castillo

 

Swing/miss would be great in high leverage situations and we need them but the lack thereof is not due to Atkins actively going "well we don't need good relievers".

They are trying, 100%, to find the key amazing Jesus arms that you desperately want and they are using their resources as best they can - but relief arms are a crapshoot every year and consistent ones are locked up.

It is not simply straight up "oh lets sign cause we need" when there's nothing on the market.

I promise you Graveman would've been a Jay if there was no restriction because he was drafted by the Jays in 2014 before being traded to Oakland for JD in 2015. So Jays know what he is capable of. Yimi Garcia was the next best option.

 

And as Terminator said, we weren't going to buy big on relief arms before we even unlocked our contention window in 2020.

 

We tried to see what we needed in 2021, got some arms on deadline - the best we could with the prospect/player/capital we had, and it wasn't enough (I mean Brad Hand came over from Nationals for Riley Adams and he absolutely sucked; ERA before the Jays? 3.59, after the Jays? 2.70; with the Jays? 7.27 || Now Riley Adams is bad but at the time he was our 17th prospect)

 

Same with Richards - before coming to the Jays last year? 11.65 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.69 ERA, 3.72 xFIP (swing/miss) | Since coming to the Jays? 4.79 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 10.31 K/9

Everyone's like "omg we traded Tellez and got fleeced" and its like, he was a good reliever we were getting at the time for someone we had no spot on this team for since moving Vlad to 1st base. Unless everyone thinks it would've been smarter to keep Vlad at 3B and Tellez at 1B instead of Vlad/Chap in corners or unless people thought Tellez would've gotten us Daniel Hudson or some s*** and Atkins went "nah, lets get Grandpa Richards instead".

 

---

 

People are already inquiring on trades across the league and I am sure Atkins is on the phone asking around too. Its not magically going to fall from the sky because we need it/needed it.

 

Unlike others, I don't think we nuke our farm for a one-off reliever, instead, as you said, build a pipeline. That's why I am all for Jansen to Astros for Hunter Brown and Abreu.

 

However, I don't know what Atkins will do - he could just pull the trigger on some combination of Moreno/Groshans/Martinez/+/+ to Pirates for Bednar + Reynolds or to Royals for Staumont + Benintendi or to Cubs for David Robertson/Scott Efross + Happ.

 

I remember when AA traded Syndegaard and D'Arnaud for RA Dickey because he had 3 good years in NL East at ages 35-37. That trade still haunts me.

Or trading Hoffman and Castro for Tulowitzki (both good relievers now btw). And nothing really came out of those trades.

Sure we got to ALCS and lost both times, but we burned the farm and dropped out of contention for 4 yrs cause of those trades.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Solaxys

[Dagagad]

This is such a bad way of looking at things though and you'll always be disappointed. Teams are run differently by different FOs.

Atkins is not going to copy/paste the Yankees FO because its different markets, different atmospheres and different available players.

 

If you actually break down Yankees BP to our BP KK/9, the outliers are Holmes/King. Short of that, we have comparable alternates to them - only two relievers have 1 extra K/9 (Castillo/Green v Garcia/Mayza).

Like did you know, Trevor Richards has 10.36 K/9 across almost 30 innings pitched? More than every single Yankees reliever K/9 except King?

 

Our relievers have 50 extra innings compared to the Yankees.

Yankees predominantly used King/Holmes (34%) while we peppered our usage across every one (only two relievers above 30, Trent being the most at 32).

 

Telling you man, our BP sucks because

1. two-three arms who straight up suck (just don't have the pitches to be relievers in AL East)

2. some who have forgotten how to not walk people/locate (especially Romano of late - he f***ed up his release point for slider and is paying the price)

3. unlucky/injuries/overuse/mismanagement

 

But we also had some good things like Gage, Cimber (even though his ERA is close to 4), Castillo

 

Swing/miss would be great in high leverage situations and we need them but the lack thereof is not due to Atkins actively going "well we don't need good relievers".

They are trying, 100%, to find the key amazing Jesus arms that you desperately want and they are using their resources as best they can - but relief arms are a crapshoot every year and consistent ones are locked up.

It is not simply straight up "oh lets sign cause we need" when there's nothing on the market.

I promise you Graveman would've been a Jay if there was no restriction because he was drafted by the Jays in 2014 before being traded to Oakland for JD in 2015. So Jays know what he is capable of. Yimi Garcia was the next best option.

 

And as Terminator said, we weren't going to buy big on relief arms before we even unlocked our contention window in 2020.

 

We tried to see what we needed in 2021, got some arms on deadline - the best we could with the prospect/player/capital we had, and it wasn't enough (I mean Brad Hand came over from Nationals for Riley Adams and he absolutely sucked; ERA before the Jays? 3.59, after the Jays? 2.70; with the Jays? 7.27 || Now Riley Adams is bad but at the time he was our 17th prospect)

 

Same with Richards - before coming to the Jays last year? 11.65 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.69 ERA, 3.72 xFIP (swing/miss) | Since coming to the Jays? 4.79 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 10.31 K/9

Everyone's like "omg we traded Tellez and got fleeced" and its like, he was a good reliever we were getting at the time for someone we had no spot on this team for since moving Vlad to 1st base. Unless everyone thinks it would've been smarter to keep Vlad at 3B and Tellez at 1B instead of Vlad/Chap in corners or unless people thought Tellez would've gotten us Daniel Hudson or some s*** and Atkins went "nah, lets get Grandpa Richards instead".

 

---

 

People are already inquiring on trades across the league and I am sure Atkins is on the phone asking around too. Its not magically going to fall from the sky because we need it/needed it.

 

Unlike others, I don't think we nuke our farm for a one-off reliever, instead, as you said, build a pipeline. That's why I am all for Jansen to Astros for Hunter Brown and Abreu.

 

However, I don't know what Atkins will do - he could just pull the trigger on some combination of Moreno/Groshans/Martinez/+/+ to Pirates for Bednar + Reynolds or to Royals for Staumont + Benintendi or to Cubs for David Robertson/Scott Efross + Happ.

 

I remember when AA traded Syndegaard and D'Arnaud for RA Dickey because he had 3 good years in NL East at ages 35-37. That trade still haunts me.

Or trading Hoffman and Castro for Tulowitzki (both good relievers now btw). And nothing really came out of those trades.

Sure we got to ALCS and lost both times, but we burned the farm and dropped out of contention for 4 yrs cause of those trades.

 

Number 1 on that list is pretty much unacceptable. Especially two years

In a row.

 

I don’t want them to be exactly like the Yankees and I don’t think you have to put as many resources as you think they should into this to be good. You just have to be smarter than we are.

 

Miami and Seattle are way up the swinging strike list as well and they didn’t spend tons on their bullpens either. The rays aren’t as good this year (because of injuries which is part of the way they do things .. they target higher injury risks than other teams) but they do it every year.

 

I’m sure Atkins is trying but he isnt good at building a pen and the people who are good at it are able to do it in less than 7 years. It shouldn’t require carefully nurturing pitchers up from A ball like some people on this board think. I don’t know. This is all just super high grade denial of a basic fact. Good bullpens strike people out and ours is one of the worst in the league at it.

 

I agree on AA. He traded too many prospects but all of them became not much. Wasn’t that the rationale for the berrios deal last year that those guys weren’t good anyway? So, why doesn’t AA get the same logic? And now everyone wants Atkins to AGAIN trade two top 100 guys for a number 3 starter because AGAIN we are incapable of developing/finding our own back end starters.

 

Yea, yea, yea we have good pitching prospects. Fine, I hope they work out. I’m sure our pen will be the only great pen in the league that’s 50% homegrown. Missing the playoffs last year when we had a good team will be worth it.

 

Edit: I don’t mean by that that we should trade all those pitching prospects. I mean you should be able to build a pen without waiting for them.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Dagagad

[The Cats Ass]

If my memory serves he's only had 1 extra base hit and that should have been a single but he surprised the outfielder and turned it into a double.

 

Back 20 years ago when average was the stat along with HR and RBI a .350 hitter was the guy. However If all you're hitting is singles you could walk 10% of the time, never strikeout and if your BABIP is league average(.300) your OPS is going to be a pretty dreadful .670. Good walk rate, incredible K rate, but if you can't hit for power you're going to be a below average hitter.

 

That's not to say Moreno will never hit for power, I'm sure it'll come, at least at a passable rate. But it gives an indication you have to have some power to be a reasonable bat these days. Concerns me more with Groshans more than Moreno.

 

Ichiro's career wRC+ was 104 and that's obviously with some power. Just a hair under .100 ISO

 

Moreno is currently sitting in the 43% range for average exit velocity, and 56% for max exit velocity. So he's not totally swinging a limp noodle.

[Laika]

Pretty confident from what I have seen that Moreno will figure out how to turn on enough pitches and spray the gaps enough to have average-ish game power. Maybe not in his first 600 PA but at some point.

[BigCecil]

At what point does this FO, 7 years in, become accountable for the impact of these 21 and 22 pens? They have had time to develop and acquire without having to pay through the nose with assets at deadlines.

[Laika]

what the f*** do you mean?

 

"become accountable"

 

you want to fire Ross Atkins because the pen is bad?

[jaysblue]

At what point does this FO, 7 years in, become accountable for the impact of these 21 and 22 pens? They have had time to develop and acquire without having to pay through the nose with assets at deadlines.

 

Depends on how far the Blue Jays go. If they make it to the ALCS lets say, that would be a huge positive with this young group. I'm sure Rogers would view the Blue Jays as really close to winning a World Series in 2023 and 2024, so doubt Atkins would go anywhere.

 

The 2016 Blue Jays were a carry over from the 2015 Blue Jays, so the rebuild didn't start until really things blew up in 2017. Atkins/Shapiro took about 3 seasons to get this team to where it needed to be in terms of contenders. 2020 season was a first taste, though doesn't count IMO. Blue Jays in 2021 were serious contenders who missed out by ONE game. Sucks because a lot of games they blew in April/May/June could have been the difference with a stronger pen. The window to contend is over the next 2-3 years. If the Blue Jays don't win a World Series by 2025 with this core in place, the window will close on them most likely.

 

If the Blue Jays fail to reach the Postseason and/or lose in the Wildcard Round, and the glaring issue was because of the bullpen blowing games, then I think Atkins can be on the hot seat. Though still think he would get a pass for 2023. If the Jays go into 2023 with an awful bullpen again and it costs them winning the division especially with this young core they have, then yes the front office should be held accountable.

[Brownie19]

I think most are underestimating or understating how much 'luck' is involved in constructing a good bullpen. I also don't give a f*** what they did with the pen in 2018 - in fact, I applaud them for not spending resources on the pen then when this team was nowhere near ready to contend.

 

As the team moved into it's window to win, the FO has added Cimber, Richards, Garcia, Phelps and Merryweather. Outside of Cimber, these guys all have a ton of swing and miss stuff with K/9 over 9 and then you have our internal guys like Romano, Mayza and Pearson. Unfortunately, a lot of these guys aren't performing up to their abilities right now.

 

You can bitch all you want that the FO 'should have known' Pearson and Merryweather are made of glass and can't be relied upon, but let's be honest, most pitchers are ticking time bombs.

[RustyTrombone]

Werent we all pretty decently happy with where the pen was at the start of the year? It was basically the same as the solid one that finished last year + Garcia. Its just been horrible luck and injuries for the second straight year that has caused the pen to s*** the bed again. Thats the just the way it goes with guys who throw 60 innings a year. Just gonna have a find a couple more Richards and Cimbers this year.

[jaysblue]

I think most are underestimating or understating how much 'luck' is involved in constructing a good bullpen. I also don't give a f*** what they did with the pen in 2018 - in fact, I applaud them for not spending resources on the pen then when this team was nowhere near ready to contend.

 

As the team moved into it's window to win, the FO has added Cimber, Richards, Garcia, Phelps and Merryweather. Outside of Cimber, these guys all have a ton of swing and miss stuff with K/9 over 9 and then you have our internal guys like Romano, Mayza and Pearson. Unfortunately, a lot of these guys aren't performing up to their abilities right now.

 

You can bitch all you want that the FO 'should have known' Pearson and Merryweather are made of glass and can't be relied upon, but let's be honest, most pitchers are ticking time bombs.

 

Luck is definitely involved in constructing an elite bullpen. You need to get lucky with some arms whether developing guys, converting failed starters in your system, free agent signings who are potential rebound candidates, minor league free agent signings or through trades.

 

I don't think the answer is just to throw unlimited money at the bullpen by signing middle relievers to 3 or 4 year deals or by trading a bunch of top prospects for bullpen arms at the trade deadline. Even by doing that doesn't guarantee you a solid bullpen.

 

Though given where the team is and the core in place, the bullpen can be the last area where this team spends some money or makes a big trade to push them over the hump. The focus should be having a roster that is built to go deep in the Postseason. Most likely the Blue Jays will grab a Wild Card spot, though given the way the roster is now, this team isn't built to go on a deep Postseason run.

[RustyTrombone]

Just call up Zulu and Frasso to the bullpen. Problem solved

[connorp]

Luck is definitely involved in constructing an elite bullpen. You need to get lucky with some arms whether developing guys, converting failed starters in your system, free agent signings who are potential rebound candidates, minor league free agent signings or through trades.

 

I don't think the answer is just to throw unlimited money at the bullpen by signing middle relievers to 3 or 4 year deals or by trading a bunch of top prospects for bullpen arms at the trade deadline. Even by doing that doesn't guarantee you a solid bullpen.

 

Though given where the team is and the core in place, the bullpen can be the last area where this team spends some money or makes a big trade to push them over the hump. The focus should be having a roster that is built to go deep in the Postseason. Most likely the Blue Jays will grab a Wild Card spot, though given the way the roster is now, this team isn't built to go on a deep Postseason run.

 

If the focus is having a roster built to go deep in the PS, BP becomes like 10x more important. You try to count WARz to get there but once you’re there, in one game scenarios your BP guys can be every bit as valuable as position players. A front-line SP probably trumps all but everyone wants that. Elite or semi-elite BP piece would probably be the most impactful trade Jays could do

[Dagagad]

what the f*** do you mean?

 

"become accountable"

 

you want to fire Ross Atkins because the pen is bad?

 

I’d like to see him answer questions on it. It’s a major point of failure.

 

I’d like to know what the plan is other than wait for prospects because no other team does that in the pen, and I think he knows that.

[Dagagad]

I think most are underestimating or understating how much 'luck' is involved in constructing a good bullpen. I also don't give a f*** what they did with the pen in 2018 - in fact, I applaud them for not spending resources on the pen then when this team was nowhere near ready to contend.

 

As the team moved into it's window to win, the FO has added Cimber, Richards, Garcia, Phelps and Merryweather. Outside of Cimber, these guys all have a ton of swing and miss stuff with K/9 over 9 and then you have our internal guys like Romano, Mayza and Pearson. Unfortunately, a lot of these guys aren't performing up to their abilities right now.

 

You can bitch all you want that the FO 'should have known' Pearson and Merryweather are made of glass and can't be relied upon, but let's be honest, most pitchers are ticking time bombs.

 

I agree with this to a point but there are teams that basically never have bad swing and miss numbers.

 

There is a luck element and there’s also a systemic element.

 

People keep talking about spending resources. The good teams at this build pens on the relative cheap year after year after year.

[Stangstag]

Werent we all pretty decently happy with where the pen was at the start of the year? It was basically the same as the solid one that finished last year + Garcia. Its just been horrible luck and injuries for the second straight year that has caused the pen to s*** the bed again. Thats the just the way it goes with guys who throw 60 innings a year. Just gonna have a find a couple more Richards and Cimbers this year.

 

Ehhh I think we all knew the bullpen was the weakest spot on the team and nothing more than average at best. Unfortunately Berrios and Kikuchi have been much worse than expected which means the mediocre bullpen is being exposed even more (also Stripling as a starter hasn't been able to consistently go 6 innings)

[Spanky99]

Wow... I missed a lot since yesterday, fun read though.

 

[Spanky99]

The top 5 teams in swinging strike rate have 9 pitchers or so each in their bullpen right now for a total of 45. There are 5 players total who were drafted by that team or signed as an amateur free agent. 5.

 

The narrative that it takes time for pitching to develop and that it needs to percolate up the system for us to get swing and miss in the pen is ********.

 

7 years is enough time to put together a bullpen if you have a smart front office and good development and pitch design. We just aren’t super good at this as an organization.

 

We get it, bro. You let us know how you feel on this, like, everyday. lol

[Spanky99]

Jansen is such an obvious trade piece at this point though, he's gone instantly for the right return. The C spot is nailed down for the next 6+ seasons with Kirk and Moreno, even if Moreno never hits better than a league average catcher.

 

Problem is, who needs a catcher with 2.5 years of control left, that's on the way up, and has something they'd want to trade that doesn't impact their upward trajectory and that helps the Jays now?

 

Houston Astros.

[Dagagad]

We get it, bro. You let us know how you feel on this, like, everyday. lol

 

It’s a frustrating experience being a fan of a really good team with a massive weakness that they seemingly refuse to address and that no journalist seems prepared to ask questions about.

 

It’s always just assumed that it ‘takes time’ and that we have to ‘wait on prospects’ when that’s ********.

 

I would like my favorite team to not suck at something really important.

 

Message received though.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Dagagad

[jaysblue]

Some BP arms who the Blue Jays should target:

 

Seranthony Domínguez - 11.39 K/9

Wil Crowe - 9.55 K/9

Matt Moore - 10.35 K/9

David Robertson - 12.10 K/9

Tanner Rainey - 10.80 K/9

 

Adding an arm like Seranthony Dominguez would be a huge upgrade and he would still be under team control. Price likely will be high, though the Phillies likely will be sellers at the deadline.

 

I love Moore because I think if you can get him to lower his BB/9 and work with Pete Walker, he can turn into an Andrew Miller light who you can use for more than 3 outs.

[Spanky99]

I doubt it as there is now 7 years of evidence that they suck at trading for it and suck at signing it as free agents.

 

Edwin Diaz should be priority #1 this offseason.

[Spanky99]

ItÂ’s a frustrating experience being a fan of a really good team with a massive weakness that they seemingly refuse to address and that no journalist seems prepared to ask questions about.

 

It’s always just assumed that it ‘takes time’ and that we have to ‘wait on prospects’ when that’s ********.

 

I would like my favorite team to not suck at something really important.

 

Message received though.

 

My eyes just got Aids trying to read that, lol... why does it do that for you???

 

I'm pretty sure most agree with you on this topic.

 

I'm just busting your balls, post away, mate!

[Dagagad]

My eyes just got Aids trying to read that, lol... why does it do that for you???

 

I'm just busting your balls, post away, mate!

 

Lol, I have no idea why it does that. I’m not typing them in. I’ll edit the original.

[BigCecil]

what the f*** do you mean?

 

"become accountable"

 

you want to fire Ross Atkins because the pen is bad?

 

I mean it’s a giant f***ing hole for us the last two years and for me that’s on him. Not like they haven’t had development time or financial resources. So for that and other decisions it’s a reasonable conversation after this season.

[Terminator]

Jansen is such an obvious trade piece at this point though, he's gone instantly for the right return. The C spot is nailed down for the next 6+ seasons with Kirk and Moreno, even if Moreno never hits better than a league average catcher.

 

Problem is, who needs a catcher with 2.5 years of control left, that's on the way up, and has something they'd want to trade that doesn't impact their upward trajectory and that helps the Jays now?

 

To add to Spanky mentioning the Astros maybe the Giants too? Maybe the Indians or even the Mets?

[Spanky99]

Nah they just haven't even bothered pouring resources into it. They took over an old team and tried to keep it going for another year but otherwise they haven't even really tried to contend until last year (they sort of started to try in 2020). Like most smart front offices the bullpen is the cherry on top. You keep pointing to the Yankees and Astros as teams that are so great at building a bullpen but they are perennial contenders, of course they are constantly signing and trading for relievers. When you aren't contending it's just hard to justify adding high leverage relievers when the major offseason moves consist of signing an aging Curtis Granderson to a one year deal to hit in the heart of the lineup.

 

Up until now there are some years they didn't even sign a reliever to an MLB deal. Other years they'll sign a Joe Smith or Oh for peanuts who will pan out just so they can flip them or they'll sign a JP Howell for nothing and they end up sucking. Either way, they've barely tried on the bullpen. Our CL is a Rule 5 returnee and our setup man was literally acquired in a trade for Joe Panik lmao. Yimi Garcia's 1 year 6 mil deal is the biggest deal they've made for a reliever.

 

The bullpen can literally be fixed in one trade deadline. If not, it can be fixed in one trade deadline and one offseason. All they have to do is finally try and now that the FO has built a contender they will definitely start to put more of a focus on that part of the team.

 

This post is criminally underrated, good post, mate.

[Solaxys]

Number 1 on that list is pretty much unacceptable. Especially two years

In a row.

Miami and Seattle are way up the swinging strike list as well and they didn’t spend tons on their bullpens either. The rays aren’t as good this year (because of injuries which is part of the way they do things .. they target higher injury risks than other teams) but they do it every year.

 

Again, where the f*** do you think arms come from lol?

f*** it. I'll do your research for you.

 

Rays

Their first postseason appearance of the Cash/Neander era was in 2019 (so, 3 yrs ago); lets start with 2018 though as it was winning season since 2013 (didn't make playoffs)

We'll look at their top 5 relief arms + anyone with more than 40 IP & <= 4 ERA (I'll highlight high K/9 rates and good FIPs) and see how they came to be in the Rays organization

 

2018

Sergio Romo [Trade] - who was traded from Dodgers to Rays after posting a 6.12 ERA in 25 innings in 2017. In 2018, he posted a 4.14 ERA in 67.1 IP, 4.04 FIP with 10.0 K/9. | Verdict: Average

Ryne Stanek [Top pitching prospect drafted in the 29th round by Rays in 2013] - posted a 2.98 ERA, 11 K/9, 2.27 FIP after 4 yrs in the minors + 1 meh season in 2017. | Verdict: Elite

Jose Alvarado [international signing in 2012] - 2.39 ERA, 11.3 K/9; took 6 years to get to the majors. | Verdict: Elite

Diego Castillo [international signing in 2014] - came up halfway in 2018 (4 yrs later), and became the opener - 3.18 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 3.30 FIP | Verdict: Great

Chaz Roe [Trade in 2017] - this was a mystery, because he spent 13 yrs of his career just going around minor league organizations (including Yankees, who let him go within one season) and Rays picked him up, 3.58 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 9.5 K/9 | Verdict: Good

Yonny Chirinos [international signing in 2012] - 3.51 ERA, 4.19 FIP | Verdict: Average

 

So all in all, their best swing/miss pitchers were all long-term prospects. Chaz Roe was undervalued by the entire league but Rays turned him around to be decent, so props to them there.

 

2019 - Made Wild Card, lost ALDS

Chaz Roe makes a return from 2018; 4.06 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 11.5 K/9 Verdict: Good

Diego Castillo makes a return from 2018; 3.41 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 3.72 FIP | Verdict: Great

Colin Poche [PTNBL from Souza trade, three team trade] - 4.70 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 12.5 K/9 | Verdict: Average

Emilio Pagan [Another three team trade where Rays gave up a decent pitching prospect - Brock Burke, hasn't been the same since injury] - 2.31 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 12.3 K/9 | Verdict: Elite

Adam Kolarek [Rule 5 Draft] - 3.95 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.3 WHIP | Verdict: Meh

Andrew Kittredge [Trade for two failed prospects from Mariners] - 4.17 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 10.5 K/99 | Average

 

Trades (somehow fleeced the three-team trade shenanigans twice lol)/prospects.

 

2020 - Won division, lost WS [lets do 20 IP here cause of the shortened season]

Diego Castillo makes a return from 2018; 1.66 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 4.53 FIP | Verdict: Great

Nick Anderson [Trade from Twins for Jesus Sanchez (rank 76 MLB prospect) and Ryne Stanek (an excellent reliever, top pitching prospect, elite in 2018)] - 0.55 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, 14.3 K/9 | Verdict: Actually insane

Pete Fairbanks [Traded from Rangers for Nick Solak (rank 141 MLB prospect)] - 2.70 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 13.2 K/9 | Verdict: Elite

Ryan Thompson [Rule 5 Draft] - 4.44 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 7.9 K/99 | Verdict: Meh

Aaron Loup [signed a MiLB deal] - 2.52 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 7.9 K/9 | Verdict: Worked out well but its Loup

Aaron Slegers [Traded for cash] - 3.46 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 6.6 K/9 | Verdict: Not a swing/miss but he was probably their best relief pitcher outside of Anderson and Fairbanks; Great

John Curtiss [signed a MiLB deal] - career year in Tampa at 1.8 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 9.0 K/9 | Verdict: again worked out for them but never repeated those numbers again Great

Jalen Beeks [Traded from Sox for Nathan Eovaldi] - 3.26 ERA, 1.59 FIP, 12.1 K/9 | Verdict: Great

 

Trades everywhere; career years from Loup and Curtiss after signing in minors.

 

2021 - Won division, lost ALDS

Diego Castillo makes a return from 2018; 2.72 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 3.17 FIP | Verdict: Elite

Andrew Kittredge makes a return from 2019 (after injury): 1.88 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 9.1 K/9 | Verdict: Elite

Pete Fairbanks makes a return from 2020: 3.59 ERA, 2.7 FIP, 11.8 K/9 | Verdict: Great

Ryan Thompson makes a return from 2020: 2.38 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 9.8 K/99 | Verdict: Elite

Colin McHugh [signed a 1 yr, 1.8M contract post not playing 2020] - 1.55 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 10.4 K/9 | Verdict: Elite but Rays took the risk no other team wanted to because of his inconsistent relief across the 8 yrs in majors.

Jeffrey Springs [Traded from Sox for Ronaldo Hernandez (23rd ranked prospect for Rays) and Nick Sogard] - 3.43 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 12.7 K/9 | Verdict: Good

Drew Rasmussen [Trade from Brewers for Willy Adames & Trevor Richards] - 2.44 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 7.3 K/9 | Verdict: Elite not swing/miss though

J.P. Feyereisen [Trade from Brewers for Willy Adames & Trevor Richards] - 2.45 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 8.1 K/0 | Verdict: Great not swing/miss though

Louis Head [MiLB contract] - 2.31 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 8.2 K/9 | Verdict: Great not swing/miss though and in Miami atm, no where close to replicating those #s.

 

More trades, one risk. Their only consistent bullpen arm (Diego Castillo) came from farm.

 

TL;DR Rays traded their farm across 3 years to assemble the bullpen (Kittredge, Fairbanks, Anderson, Springs). They still have an excellent farm, credit to them. Took them three years to set up the elite af BP

They absolutely got lucky in certain places with random career years that haven't been replicated (look at Andrew Kittredge in 2020/2021 v. his 3 other years in majors pitching 20 IP+) or three-way trades that somehow they just got the better end of.

There was zero high leverage FA signings, cause they don't spend money that way; they pick good MiLB candidates and if they work out, they promote. So sure, we can say Rays have better scouting to that end.

 

Bullpen arms do not fall out of the sky and more importantly, relief arms are not consistent - they might have one or two good years.

The rare bullpen arms that are consistent/super-elite are locked up into contracts or require you to trade top 100 prospects to get (look at Nick Anderson trade).

Randomly targeting swing/miss pitchers also just doesn't mean you are going to win the game - look at 2021 Rays; had the best bullpen assembled, lost ALDS.

The one time they went to WS? Carried by Anderson/Fairbanks duo just like King/Holmes are carrying Yankees this year.

 

Lets take a closer look at the Rays Willy Adames/Trevor Richards trade though - cause that ultimately came to Trevor Richards coming to us for Rowdy.

Could Rowdy have been traded for just one of those elite pitchers that Rays got over Trevor Richards?

TBH possibly - both haven't had that great of years with Brewers and Rowdy could've at least gotten Rasmussen by himself but Urias was struggling at SS and Adames was more important to the Brewers. They had Vogelbach at 1B who was posting similar #s to Tellez at the time in Toronto, so it was a very low prio trade for Brewers and they just flipped Richards from the Rays deal for him.

If we used Espinal instead of Tellez, we could've swung the trade in our favor but then our corners would be Vlad/Tellez or Biggio on a down year at 3B.

And then we'd also end up looking for a good 2B this year because Semien wouldn't be here, and there aren't many 2B that have produced as well as Espinal.

 

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So ya, you want elite BP arms like Rays - we start trading our farm capital like I said in the previous post.

Cubs for a 37 yr old David Robertson and Rockies for a 37 yr old Daniel Bard are perfect candidates; having excellent years, rentals, and they'll be terrible next year.

Or dish out something like Moreno for Bednar and then lock up Bednar to a 4 yr deal (up to 2027) and hope he doesn't fall off.

 

Why didn't it happen last year? I don't know.

You had Kimbrel (ew), Hudson (Padres got him as a rental for an elite K pitcher in Thompson and #28 ranked prospect in system; he signed with Dodgers now), Rodriguez (Braves traded for this reliever for their 9th and 23rd best prospect; suspended atm due to taking PEDS), Iglesias (Wasn't traded; resigned with Angels), Kennedy (traded to Phillies for their #1 prospect + 2 other prospects; resigned with Diamondbacks after season ended), Graveman (couldn't sign cause of COVID restricted list), Rogers (wasn't traded then but then traded for Chris Paddack in 2022 with Twins, prolly a really good trade for Padres), Garcia (Astros traded him for 38th MLB ranked prospect and a reliever Pruitt for a rental; signed with BlueJays), Bard (wasn't traded by Rockies, still under contract through this year but def can be traded this year), & Michael Fulmer (also not traded by Tigers).

 

So like, who could've realistically gotten without shelling out the farm? Maybe Garcia?

And offseason, like I said, of the two pitchers with a high K%, Graveman and Garcia, we got Garcia.

 

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Miami has 4 arms - Tanner Scott (who they absolutely fleeced out of Orioles for trades of two prospects, but Scott has been very inconsistent in his Orioles career; just putting up elite numbers this year), Steven Okert (signed in 2021 to MiLB contract - another McHugh situation, didn't play 2020 cause didn't want to get 'with the covid protocols'), Cole Sulser (same with the Tanner Scott trade), and finally Tommy Nance (despite having a blistering 13.3 K/9 and an upper 90 whiff%, he sports a 6.16 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.737)

 

So what? You think we missed out on Tanner Scott trade?

You think Os would trade inter-divisionally when they are gearing up to compete in a few years? Would you have given up prospects for a career 4.67 ERA pitcher (6 seasons), with a WHIP of 1.508 just cause he has a strikeout rate of 12.4/whiff% of 91 when he was traded?

 

You're right about Seattle.

They have Paul Sewald (2.6 ERA, 0.723 WHIP, 9.1 K; who was signed to a MiLB contract after having 4 abysmal years with Mets - 9.5 K/9, 5+ ERA, WHIP of 1.25), Penn Murfee (drafted by Seattle in 2018), Andres Munoz (traded to Mariners from Padres in a deal whose centerpieces were France and Nola; Munoz was not doing well in Padres minors after Tommy John, but he has 13.3 K/9 rate after coming to Mariners; huge injury risk and has 4.00 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 4 BB/9), Diego Castillo (know all too well cause of the Rays; surprising trade that no one saw coming to get JT Chagrois - hasn't pitched much at all and IF depth since the Adames trade; again, doubt they'd trade within AL East), Matthew Festa (2016 Draft by Mariners), Erik Swanson (trade with Yankees where they sent Paxton to the Yankees in 2018 when we weren't even thinking of contending), Danny Young (12.3 K/9 but has 7.36 ERA, 2.455 WHIP, injured - and he was drafted by the Jays in 2015 first), Ken Giles (also was in Toronto from 2018 - 2020 - we traded Ozuna for him, posting elite K rates 14.1 K/9 in 2 of the last two years; went Tommy John surgery and we didn't want to resign him for the contract Mariners gave him 3.5M/y), Yohan Ramirez (10.8 K/9, but 7.56 ERA with 1.560 WHIP; traded to Indians this year for Santana to fill the injury of France).

 

So again, who do you think we would've gotten? Seattle took risks on two TJS players, got something good from Paxton trade, and otherwise drafts.

 

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This is literally what I mean.

You can't just say "X team got it, why didn't we?" without literally going into details. Just because we need them does not mean they are available. Sometimes, teams pick up low-value assets and they turn extremely lucky (Rays last year) and also not (Mariners, Rays this year). How many of these MiLB signings or post TJS signings didn't work out? We'll never know 'cause they aren't here in the majors.

 

Unless you unequivocally have proof that there was an elite swing/miss arm available to Atkins on a platter, and he decided to do a 180 and go after a trickshot pitcher, stop assuming Atkins flat out ignores BP as a principle.

 

We have pitchers like Bowden Francis in our pipeline who we got from Brewers (when we got him, he had a 10.44 K/9 in AA, currently struggling in AAA), Adrian Hernandez (who posted a 15.7 K/9 in A/AA, and so far in AAA - 12.6 K/9), we brought up Max Castillo who is a swing/miss guy (10+ K/99 in AAA from Venezuelan league that we signed)

Other pitchers in our farm that are struggling but we'll see what happens: Fitz Stadler (12.88 K/9 in AAA), Graham Spraker (10+ K/9), Gabriel Ponce (10+ K/9), Jose De Leon (I think he was a dodgers draft but Atkins signed him to MiLB deal - 12.6 K/9 in AAA and MLB during his one stint with LAD).

 

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Am I letting Atkins off the hook? f*** no. I was skeptical af about the Berrios trade and the contract thereafter. Kikuchi was w.e, he'll be gone in 3 yrs and we just lose money.

 

Bullpen is 100% an issue, but we are not that far away from a good bullpen.

We are missing two elite relievers (your Anderson/Fairbanks or Holmes/King combo).

 

Could we have gotten someone good at last year's deadline? Sure, but they were all rentals and giving up the prospects those teams gave up for a rental relief hurts my soul.

I rather have us do the Nick Anderson type deal (which again, this year would be something like Jansen for Brown + Abreu) that Rays did than the Hudson trade Padres did.

 

Could we have gotten someone before this year? We did, in Garcia. It wasn't enough but given what the hell was out there (I mean, Kenley Jansen?!) and available to us, it was good that we got someone even signed.

 

Anyway, this is my essay on this bullpen s***. lol. Exhausted going through all this history.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Solaxys

[JFD]

Can't believe people think that HBP to our golden god wasn't intentional..

 

Dirt bag team, dirt bag city and a coach that should've been banned for life...

[connorp]

Some serious dedication to posts going on here lol

[BigCecil]

I think most are underestimating or understating how much 'luck' is involved in constructing a good bullpen. I also don't give a f*** what they did with the pen in 2018 - in fact, I applaud them for not spending resources on the pen then when this team was nowhere near ready to contend.

 

As the team moved into it's window to win, the FO has added Cimber, Richards, Garcia, Phelps and Merryweather. Outside of Cimber, these guys all have a ton of swing and miss stuff with K/9 over 9 and then you have our internal guys like Romano, Mayza and Pearson. Unfortunately, a lot of these guys aren't performing up to their abilities right now.

 

You can bitch all you want that the FO 'should have known' Pearson and Merryweather are made of glass and can't be relied upon, but let's be honest, most pitchers are ticking time bombs.

 

I’m not underestimating luck bro or the volatility of pen arms. You always need some found money too from performance you never expected. At the end we knew the pen assembled wasn’t strong enough with inevitable injuries. And it hasn’t been. I hoped for a cautious showing of value from Pearson but Merryweather I did think when and if healthy would be more effective. How many playoffs have we watched since 2015 ish where the pens played so much in the outcomes? A wipe out pen has pretty much become an essential element of any run. In other words it needed more focus and attention IMO. Let’s see what the deadline brings and at what cost.