General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Sorrow]

Richards has been good when he finishes an inning and doesn't go back out, he's being misused. Have him end the inning and bring in another pitcher from there.

[Dagagad]

I'll blame whoever the f*** I want.

 

Should have used Richards in the 10-1 game and a fresh Cimber in the close game.

 

Any idiot should be able to figure that s*** out. It's not hard.

 

Unfortunately our manager isn't just any idiot. He's an exceptional one.

 

Has there ever been a blue jays manager who you haven’t said this about at some point?

 

If the answer is no, maybe look deep inside that dark dim little brain of yours and puzzle out why that may be.

 

Like, your argument now is that they should hold Richards for blowouts only. Major league managers literally can’t manage pens like that but idiots on line think they should lol. Or is the argument that he should predict the future..

[John_Havok]

Richards has been good when he finishes an inning and doesn't go back out, he's being misused. Have him end the inning and bring in another pitcher from there.

 

They said it pretty well last night on the broadcast, he throws the fewest # of pitches in the strikezone of any pitcher. That's not a great stat, especially when your fastball is as pedestrian as his.

[Dagagad]

Would Ryu’s contract be insured?

 

This is probably in bad taste, but if so doesn’t that free up 20m more in salary we can take on this year and 20m more next year?

 

Obviously they can’t remove it from the books for luxury tax purposes but we probably aren’t getting close to that .

[Laika]

Would Ryu’s contract be insured?

 

This is probably in bad taste, but if so doesn’t that free up 20m more in salary we can take on this year and 20m more next year?

 

Obviously they can’t remove it from the books for luxury tax purposes but we probably aren’t getting close to that .

 

Not likely

 

At least not for an arm injury

 

https://community.fangraphs.com/insurance-in-baseball-is-like-a-black-hole/

[Stangstag]

Would Ryu’s contract be insured?

 

This is probably in bad taste, but if so doesn’t that free up 20m more in salary we can take on this year and 20m more next year?

 

Obviously they can’t remove it from the books for luxury tax purposes but we probably aren’t getting close to that .

 

I would assume the contract was insured, yes. And I would assume Jays aren’t on the hook for the full 20m next year.

 

Should have that extra money to play with this offseason. We are far enough away from the luxury tax that it won’t hinder the FO

[Stangstag]

Not likely

 

At least not for an arm injury

 

https://community.fangraphs.com/insurance-in-baseball-is-like-a-black-hole/

 

Really eh? That’s upsetting to hear…

[Brownie19]

I'll blame whoever the f*** I want.

 

Should have used Richards in the 10-1 game and a fresh Cimber in the close game.

 

Any idiot should be able to figure that s*** out. It's not hard.

 

Unfortunately our manager isn't just any idiot. He's an exceptional one.

 

You're really naïve if you think this team is employing an idiot and that Charlie is the only person who decides how to utilize the bullpen. There is a f*** ton of information that you and I aren't privy to - all of which goes into the decisions. You should really stop acting like this is clear cut stupidity. What you're doing is what people do with politics. It's not good man.

[Eat My Shatkins]

You're really naïve if you think this team is employing an idiot and that Charlie is the only person who decides how to utilize the bullpen. There is a f*** ton of information that you and I aren't privy to - all of which goes into the decisions. You should really stop acting like this is clear cut stupidity. What you're doing is what people do with politics. It's not good man.

 

lol I would love to privy to the info that led to those piss poor decisions

 

But yeah, let's keep trotting Richards out there more than any other reliever this season, it's been working great

 

Especially in close games

[Stangstag]

lol I would love to privy to the info that led to those piss poor decisions

 

But yeah, let's keep trotting Richards out there more than any other reliever this season, it's been working great

 

Especially in close games

 

Yeah im not sure what data they’re using to back up this constant use of Richards… but maybe they need to re-evaluate their calculations.

[Laika]

Reliever numbers are super volatile in short samples, guys

 

Richards does have the second highest whiff rate on the team, behind only Romano. His K and BB rates are not wildly different from last year when he was okay. His FB velo is even up this year.

 

He is throwing too many balls of course and getting hit. How much is bad luck? How much is transitory control problems?

 

He doesn't look like someone who is broken to me, based on the indicators, so I don't see why he should be off limits in the 5th inning of a game the SP could not go deep in.

 

In fact he might be pitching better than David Phelps on measures of talent....

[Laika]

Here are some of the Jays relievers so far in 2022 by the Eno Sarris fancy stats

 

PLAYER / STUFF+ / COMMAND+ / PITCHING+

 

MERRYWEATHER 119.3 / 101.2 / 108.6

CIMBER 135.2 / 102.6 / 106.7

MAYZA 114 / 104 / 106

ROMANO 122.2 / 94.3 / 104.8

THORNTON 106.1 / 99.1 / 104.1

GARCIA 97.3 / 103.4 / 101.3

PHELPS 85.9 / 95.6 / 95.8

RICHARDS 108.6 / 92.7 / 93.6

 

Okay so Richards does have such awful command this year and he is their worst reliever.

 

Phelps is terrifyingly bad though and should not be trusted.

 

I would kind of ignore Cimber's Stuff+ number because the model likely doesn't work good for someone like him.

 

Romano really struggling with command, that matches the eye test. That is holding him back from being an elite reliever. Elite RPs would be like 110+ on the PITCHING+ number.

 

Merryweather is a stud, f*** you all. Hopefully he comes back this year.

 

The Jays probably need to find or acquire two above average RP.

 

Richards has a glimmer of hope because his STUFF+ number is still good. But the command is whack.

[Deadpool]

Here are some of the Jays relievers so far in 2022 by the Eno Sarris fancy stats

 

PLAYER / STUFF+ / COMMAND+ / PITCHING+

 

MERRYWEATHER 119.3 / 101.2 / 108.6

CIMBER 135.2 / 102.6 / 106.7

MAYZA 114 / 104 / 106

ROMANO 122.2 / 94.3 / 104.8

THORNTON 106.1 / 99.1 / 104.1

GARCIA 97.3 / 103.4 / 101.3

PHELPS 85.9 / 95.6 / 95.8

RICHARDS 108.6 / 92.7 / 93.6

 

Okay so Richards does have such awful command this year and he is their worst reliever.

 

Phelps is terrifyingly bad though and should not be trusted.

 

I would kind of ignore Cimber's Stuff+ number because the model likely doesn't work good for someone like him.

 

Romano really struggling with command, that matches the eye test. That is holding him back from being an elite reliever. Elite RPs would be like 110+ on the PITCHING+ number.

 

Merryweather is a stud, f*** you all. Hopefully he comes back this year.

 

The Jays probably need to find or acquire two above average RP.

 

Richards has a glimmer of hope because his STUFF+ number is still good. But the command is whack.

 

I guess my "somehow I think Merryweather will actually be good" instinct does have some basis in statistics. Granted, they're statistics I've never actually heard of...

[Brownie19]

I guess my "somehow I think Merryweather will actually be good" instinct does have some basis in statistics. Granted, they're statistics I've never actually heard of...

 

I was just thinking the same thing.

[Laika]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AE1dNnudwRS6aLhWA1SArp1GoviUeHNcASXxtm3Le9I/edit#gid=1464355835

[Spanky99]

I guess my "somehow I think Merryweather will actually be good" instinct does have some basis in statistics. Granted, they're statistics I've never actually heard of...

 

Plus his DIPS look good as well. The above format is explained here...

 

https://theathletic.com/3136219/2022/03/31/sarris-starting-pitching-ranks-for-the-2022-fantasy-season/

[Laika]

Stripling is interesting. His stuff is grading as worse but his command is up by a more significant amount, making his Pitching+ grade out as exactly average.

 

89.5 106.2 100

 

One tick better than Kooch who has way better stuff of course

 

107.1 96.8 99

 

 

If you are wondering... differences in COMMAND+ have a bigger effect on PITCHING+ (the total measure).

 

But STUFF+ is a much stickier number for pitchers. Command can come and go for various reasons. It's not as sticky.

[Dagagad]

Beasley has a good stuff number last time I looked at that sheet. Probably why they stick with him.

 

Matt gage are good as well over a short sample.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Reliever numbers are super volatile in short samples, guys

 

Richards does have the second highest whiff rate on the team, behind only Romano. His K and BB rates are not wildly different from last year when he was okay. His FB velo is even up this year.

 

He is throwing too many balls of course and getting hit. How much is bad luck? How much is transitory control problems?

 

He doesn't look like someone who is broken to me, based on the indicators, so I don't see why he should be off limits in the 5th inning of a game the SP could not go deep in.

 

In fact he might be pitching better than David Phelps on measures of talent....

 

 

 

Ok, but maybe they should see if his luck turns around when it's 10-1 and not when it's 4-3?

[Omar]

Here are some of the Jays relievers so far in 2022 by the Eno Sarris fancy stats

 

PLAYER / STUFF+ / COMMAND+ / PITCHING+

 

MERRYWEATHER 119.3 / 101.2 / 108.6

CIMBER 135.2 / 102.6 / 106.7

MAYZA 114 / 104 / 106

ROMANO 122.2 / 94.3 / 104.8

THORNTON 106.1 / 99.1 / 104.1

GARCIA 97.3 / 103.4 / 101.3

PHELPS 85.9 / 95.6 / 95.8

RICHARDS 108.6 / 92.7 / 93.

All of Eno's work is now suspect based on Merryweather's rankings.

[Laika]

signal vs noise

 

smart teams buy Merryweathers. They don't cut them.

[Stangstag]

signal vs noise

 

smart teams buy Merryweathers. They don't cut them.

 

Idk I just think he’s injured so often that he doesn’t get to actually settle in or work on anything, so he never gets better. His command is awful which leads to him throwing fastballs middle middle which get smashed.

 

He’s only on this team because the bullpen isn’t very good to begin with.

[Big BlueJay]

No one likes what you say, meat.

 

No one has to like it, but you do either need to agree with it or ignore it but don't try to tell me that it's not annoying for them to win 2 of 3 each series by 8-10 runs then lose the 3rd to bad teams. At some point if you're a team to be taken as a serious contender you need to sweep these bottom dwellers. Taking two of three from the Yankees or Rays or Red Sox is not the same as taking 2 of 3 from the Royals, Tigers or Orioles

[Dagagad]

No one has to like it, but you do either need to agree with it or ignore it but don't try to tell me that it's not annoying for them to win 2 of 3 each series by 8-10 runs then lose the 3rd to bad teams. At some point if you're a team to be taken as a serious contender you need to sweep these bottom dwellers. Taking two of three from the Yankees or Rays or Red Sox is not the same as taking 2 of 3 from the Royals, Tigers or Orioles

 

I mean, that’s just not how baseball works. It just isn’t. You can’t just click your fingers and sweep bad teams. No team does that consistently.

[Laika]

Idk I just think he’s injured so often that he doesn’t get to actually settle in or work on anything, so he never gets better. His command is awful which leads to him throwing fastballs middle middle which get smashed.

 

He’s only on this team because the bullpen isn’t very good to begin with.

 

It's actually not awful command. It's a very specific command problem where his strikes are not good enough. I mean his BB/9 this year is 1.47.

 

Otherwise I do agree with you his injuries really hurt him in terms of developing the finer points of his craft...

[InsideThePark]

No one has to like it, but you do either need to agree with it or ignore it but don't try to tell me that it's not annoying for them to win 2 of 3 each series by 8-10 runs then lose the 3rd to bad teams. At some point if you're a team to be taken as a serious contender you need to sweep these bottom dwellers. Taking two of three from the Yankees or Rays or Red Sox is not the same as taking 2 of 3 from the Royals, Tigers or Orioles

 

Record against teams with a win% less than .500

 

NYY 29-9

TOR 20-7

TB 24-17

BOS 24-16

MIN 25-15

CLE 24-15

HOU 30-17

NYM 17-8

ATL 24-13

STL 23-11

MIL 22-12

LAD 25-12

SD 21-8

SF 18-11

 

All teams lose to bad teams. The Jays record against bad teams is one of the best in the league.

 

Sadly we've played fewer of those games than anyone else has and about half as many as Houston has somehow. Houston has played 15 games against teams better than .500. Almost half of those were against us.

[Brownie19]

Jesus - easy with the facts there InsideThePark. BBJ prefers his own narrative that's based on absolutely nothing. He's allowed to have a (horribly misconstrued) opinion because god damn it, it's the internet and that's how we operate these days.

[Big BlueJay]

I mean, that’s just not how baseball works. It just isn’t. You can’t just click your fingers and sweep bad teams. No team does that consistently.

 

Not when you run a scrub like Kikuchi out there who has been throwing a baseball the past 15 years of his life and still has no clue where the strike zone is, no. Not when your top 4 hitters combine to go 2 for 17 with 2 singles.. it's not like there aren't obvious reasons for the loss, you cannot tell me last night was not a winnable game in every way. Not to mention I was complaining about Espinal being benched yesterday and his replacement Biggio went 0 for 3 with 3 Ks and 3 LOB. Had they just played Espi that right there might've been enough difference to win the game. Losses don't just "happen" because that's how baseball works

[InsideThePark]

Not when you run a scrub like Kikuchi out there who has been throwing a baseball the past 15 years of his life and still has no clue where the strike zone is, no. Not when your top 4 hitters combine to go 2 for 17 with 2 singles.. it's not like there aren't obvious reasons for the loss, you cannot tell me last night was not a winnable game in every way. Not to mention I was complaining about Espinal being benched yesterday and his replacement Biggio went 0 for 3 with 3 Ks and 3 LOB. Had they just played Espi that right there might've been enough difference to win the game. Losses don't just "happen" because that's how baseball works

 

Yes every game against a bad team is winnable. But you don't win them all, that's not the way it works, bad teams beat good teams all the time. The Dodgers recently got swept by the Pirates in LA. A group of hitters that hit .300 aren't going to go a combined 6 for 20 every single game. Sometimes they'll go 6/20 and win. Sometimes they'll go 10/20 win by a lot, and it'll be balanced out by games where they go a combined 2/20 and they'll probably lose that one it happens.

 

You're allowed to be frustrated, it is annoying in the moment, but it'll happen probably 20 or 30 times over a season so you should probably let it go quickly if you can. You're going to be very miserable if you let it annoy you for multiple days afterwards. By the time you finally get over it it'll happen again.

[max silver]

Not when you run a scrub like Kikuchi out there who has been throwing a baseball the past 15 years of his life and still has no clue where the strike zone is, no. Not when your top 4 hitters combine to go 2 for 17 with 2 singles.. it's not like there aren't obvious reasons for the loss, you cannot tell me last night was not a winnable game in every way. Not to mention I was complaining about Espinal being benched yesterday and his replacement Biggio went 0 for 3 with 3 Ks and 3 LOB. Had they just played Espi that right there might've been enough difference to win the game. Losses don't just "happen" because that's how baseball works

 

You live in a fantasy land if you expect the baseball team you follow to constantly go on extended 10-15 winning streaks simply because they are playing teams that are below them in the standings. Since the Jays offence came to life they have a 14-5 record, that is a 119 win pace over an entire season. Are you going to continue throwing a temper tantrum like a 4 year old over a team with a win record of this nature? Sometimes s*** happens and the other team ends up winning, typically the best teams in MLB still end up losing 60 games or so.

 

Like it or not most MLB players simply aren't going to play 162 games anymore. Maybe Espinal picks up a hit or two or maybe he goes 0 for 4 as well, you can't simply assume that a player who is resting for the day is going to have a better game than the player that filled in that day.