The Blue Jays sign Yusei Kikuchi

[Dick_Pole]

He looked phenomenal at first but the stuff tailed off a bit IMO. I have tempered expectations and expect something like 3 WAR if he stays healthy.

 

My guess is pro innings 100-150 took a toll. He's had an offseason to build that up. Plus he's built like a truck so his endurance should improve. I'm also betting that he'll be pulled out of a lot of games after the 5th when the Jays are up like 8-1. That will push up his counting stats like wins, protect his rate stats and keep him effective for the year. He will pull in Cy Young votes.

[Krylian]

My guess is pro innings 100-150 took a toll. He's had an offseason to build that up. Plus he's built like a truck so his endurance should improve. I'm also betting that he'll be pulled out of a lot of games after the 5th when the Jays are up like 8-1. That will push up his counting stats like wins, protect his rate stats and keep him effective for the year. He will pull in Cy Young votes.

 

I hope you're right...but I've seen enough Sophomore slumps on the mound over the years to be cautious with my expectations.

[Laika]

My guess is pro innings 100-150 took a toll. He's had an offseason to build that up. Plus he's built like a truck so his endurance should improve. I'm also betting that he'll be pulled out of a lot of games after the 5th when the Jays are up like 8-1. That will push up his counting stats like wins, protect his rate stats and keep him effective for the year. He will pull in Cy Young votes.

 

CY yOUNG VOTES!!!?????

 

please

[Dick_Pole]

CY yOUNG VOTES!!!?????

 

please

 

50 to 1 odds he wins. I put money on my long shot bets. The fact the my bookie even had him available out of 29 selections shows that someone, somewhere is thinking the same thing I am.

[Laika]

Or your bookie knows how to tickle your fancy

[Dick_Pole]

Nah, nothing I've done on there indicates that I am a Jays fan. Though I suppose they do know my country of origin. I have to admit I could be too old school. Manoah may have no shot not because of insufficient talent, but baseball is just not played in a way where pitchers of his lack of experience gets anywhere near enough innings to be considered the top pitcher. I'm betting he's a freak though. We'll see.

[Laika]

I just don't see his stuff as Cy Young good.

 

Now he is young so that could change but I think he needs a bit more in the arsenal to be an Ace. Needs a third weapon.

[Terminator]

Compare this deal to the 44M/4 years the Cards gave Matz and it looks better.

 

Both pitchers project the same, are the same age and Kikuchi has a front loaded deal with one less year which more than makes up for the slightly higher AAV.

[Laika]

Compare this deal to the 44M/4 years the Cards gave Matz and it looks better.

 

Both pitchers project the same, are the same age and Kikuchi has a front loaded deal with one less year which more than makes up for the slightly higher AAV.

 

Also Matz was 100% maxed out on talent and it seems like Kikuchi MIGHT have a bit more to offer.

[max silver]

At first I was pretty meh on this deal, as it felt like paying Kikuchi $36 million was completely based on potential rather than a pitcher who had experienced any type of MLB success. When taking a closer look he has produced a decent run of success in MLB over 5 months worth of starts, just split up over the covid shortened 2020 season and the first half of 2021. I chose to include the include his 2020 season stats and up until July 8 of 2021, as after that start is when the wheels really started to fall off for Kikuchi, with over half of his starts with ERA's north of 9 and several starts with ERA's of over 20.

 

During this stretch of games he put up pretty respectable numbers over a period of 24 starts. He produced an ERA of 3.81, FIP of 4.01, K/9 of 8.96, BB/9 of 3.18 and HR/9 of 1.21. Time will tell if the fall off during the second half of 2021 was more a product of fatigue or a result of the sticky stuff crackdown, as Kikuchi's spin rates took a noticeable tumble after the ban was implemented.

 

He looks like he will benefit greatly from a tweak to his pitch selection. According to Statcast he threw his cutter a whopping 35% of the time, but this was a very bad idea as it was hammered to the tune of a .382 WOBA with an ever higher .426 XWOBA. Conversely he threw his changeup (which other systems identify as a splitter) only 10.5% of the time, with a very impressive .192 WOBA/.194 XWOBA against. This pitch was able to garner a 39.6% whiff percentage. Perhaps Kikuchi would benefit from dropping the cutter altogether as the heat maps against show a majority of pitches down the middle of the plate and thigh high.

[jerb]

[jerb]

 

Hazel Mae

@thehazelmae

 

C Danny Jansen reflected on what he saw from Yusei Kikuchi in his first bullpen of camp:

 

“After the bullpen, he (Kikuchi) told me his cutter was one of the pitches that he feels the most confident and comfortable with, which is great to hear because it was really good today.”

[Brownie19]

Someone should show Kikuchi and Jansen the numbers on his cutter - because they are f***ing horrible. Perhaps he's comfortable giving up HRs?

[John_Havok]

Someone should show Kikuchi and Jansen the numbers on his cutter - because they are f***ing horrible. Perhaps he's comfortable giving up HRs?

 

I'm sure Pete Walker popped over after he saw the tweet, pointed to one of his sheets and said something along the lines of "uh, no."

[Brownie19]

I'm sure Pete Walker popped over after he saw the tweet, pointed to one of his sheets and said something along the lines of "uh, no."

 

It's pretty scary that Pete would have to tell Kikuchi that himself.

[The Cats Ass]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/yusei-kikuchi-579328?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

Similar Pitchers to Yusei Kikuchi Based on Velocity and Movement: 2021 - Robbie Ray

[John_Havok]

It's pretty scary that Pete would have to tell Kikuchi that himself.

 

Sure, my post was more tongue in cheek than anything. I'm sure both Kikuchi and Jansen both realize his cutter got demolished last season, so whether he likes the pitch or not, there likely needs to be some changes.

 

Granted, it was only his second season using the pitch, as he only started using it in 2020 after dumping his horrible curveball.

[Terminator]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/yusei-kikuchi-579328?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

What are his Cy Young odds?

[John_Havok]

What are his Cy Young odds?

 

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2313942

 

Started at +5000 a few days ago.

[jerb]

 

Keegan Matheson

@KeeganMatheson

 

Pete Walker was happy with his first up-close look at Yusei Kikuchi.

 

As the #BlueJays typically do, Walker says they’ll try to focus on what Kikuchi likes and his own strengths, then add their own $0.02 down the line.

[Terminator]

Hilarious how Walker is seen as some sort of Horse Whisperer for pitchers

[Laika]

I wonder if he should just drop the cutter entirely?

 

Like do you really need a fastball variant without elite movement that is 92mph when you have a 4 seamer that is 95?

 

I wonder if the cutter just does not complement his 4 seamer slider combo well...

[L54]

 

Keegan Matheson

@KeeganMatheson

 

Pete Walker was happy with his first up-close look at Yusei Kikuchi.

 

As the #BlueJays typically do, Walker says they’ll try to focus on what Kikuchi likes and his own strengths, then add their own $0.02 down the line.

 

The common sense approach

[max silver]

I wonder if he should just drop the cutter entirely?

 

Like do you really need a fastball variant without elite movement that is 92mph when you have a 4 seamer that is 95?

 

I wonder if the cutter just does not complement his 4 seamer slider combo well...

 

Interestingly the cutter was his most effective pitch in 2020, but it was thrown 2 MPH slower and heat maps show most pitches located towards the edge of the plate. With some tweaks maybe it's worth keeping.

[John_Havok]

I wonder if he should just drop the cutter entirely?

 

Like do you really need a fastball variant without elite movement that is 92mph when you have a 4 seamer that is 95?

 

I wonder if the cutter just does not complement his 4 seamer slider combo well...

 

Probably, clearly im no pitching coach, but having both a cutter and a slider seems like it wouldnt be ideal. Both pitches move glove side, slider is slower with a bit more break, cutter is harder with less break. With his decent change, I would think shelving the cutter in favor of the slider would be a good place to start, or shelving the slider and keeping the cutter.

[jerb]

[Laika]

Probably, clearly im no pitching coach, but having both a cutter and a slider seems like it wouldnt be ideal. Both pitches move glove side, slider is slower with a bit more break, cutter is harder with less break. With his decent change, I would think shelving the cutter in favor of the slider would be a good place to start, or shelving the slider and keeping the cutter.

 

Yeah see Jon Lester is the lefty starter that I think of when I think of cutters. I don't think he even threw a slider.

[Brownie19]

Yeah see Jon Lester is the lefty starter that I think of when I think of cutters. I don't think he even threw a slider.

 

David Price too.

 

You'd think the 4 seam, slider, change/split combination would be a solid arsenal. I'm not sure he needs a 4th pitch - although it appears he never throws the change/split v. LHB

[Laika]

David Price too.

 

You'd think the 4 seam, slider, change/split combination would be a solid arsenal. I'm not sure he needs a 4th pitch - although it appears he never throws the change/split v. LHB

 

Yeah and sinker always works well with a slider.

 

Interesting thing with Price - also no slider. Looks like he had one as a rookie/sophomore but turned it into his cutter.

[Brownie19]

Yeah and sinker always works well with a slider.

 

Interesting thing with Price - also no slider. Looks like he had one as a rookie/sophomore but turned it into his cutter.

 

Is Price finished? Is he even going to get the opportunity to start at the MLB level again?