Around Baseball 2022

[G-Snarls]

Given the prices we've seen this offseason that doesn't sound like it would move the needle much.

 

480M

 

Final offer

[max silver]

https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/mlb/news/mookie-betts-trade-red-sox-dodgers/brejj3osof7l1lfsy0q1fi5xa

 

Mookie Betts trade details

 

Dodgers received: OF Mookie Betts, LHP David Price, cash

Red Sox received: OF Alex Verdugo, SS Jeter Downs, C Connor Wong

 

Note: An initial three-team trade involving the Twins was nixed, but the Dodgers and Twins agreed to a separate deal that brought Kenta Maeda and a prospect to Minnesota while sending Brusdar Graterol, a prospect and a draft pick to L.A.

 

The Red Sox really kneecapped themselves insisting that prospective buyers take back David Price as well.

[L54]

And turn him into an OF/RP. Imagine

 

Yup exactly. Start every 6 days and play the field like 3 or 4.

[G-Snarls]

Didn't see this coming

 

 

Syndergaard will make $13MM plus incentives, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Syndergaard can earn an extra $1.5MM via those incentives, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.

[BigCecil]

This offseason has made paying a 36 year old George Springer $25M seem not so bad.

 

And Gausman is an absolute bargain. He’s probably break $150M easy in this market.

 

Yep. Hell Kooch 3/36 might even be a bargain in this market. If you can put put fog on a mirror, have a pulse, and have gotten a MLB bat out as a SP before, the bidding starts at $10M AAV lol.

[Jonn]

Yep. Hell Kooch 3/36 might even be a bargain in this market. If you can put put fog on a mirror, have a pulse, and have gotten a MLB bat out as a SP before, the bidding starts at $10M AAV lol.

 

Lets not go that far.

[The Cats Ass]

Yep. Hell Kooch 3/36 might even be a bargain in this market. If you can put put fog on a mirror, have a pulse, and have gotten a MLB bat out as a SP before, the bidding starts at $10M AAV lol.

 

If he turns into a relief ace he’d also be worth it. Out of the pen the only guy with a higher K-rate then him was Edwin Diaz. This might be the Jays plan, everyone has been moving for a strike out arm in the pen. I read that they were looking into Cueto, this was after signing Bassit.

[connorp]

If he turns into a relief ace he’d also be worth it. Out of the pen the only guy with a higher K-rate then him was Edwin Diaz. This might be the Jays plan, everyone has been moving for a strike out arm in the pen. I read that they were looking into Cueto, this was after signing Bassit.

 

Still doubtful he’d be a reliever in the sense of 1 inning shutdown guy. He’d take Strip’s old role

 

They’d need him stretched out. No depth for SP.

[Krylian]

If he turns into a relief ace he’d also be worth it. Out of the pen the only guy with a higher K-rate then him was Edwin Diaz. This might be the Jays plan, everyone has been moving for a strike out arm in the pen. I read that they were looking into Cueto, this was after signing Bassit.

 

I'm not opposed to the idea of Kikuchi becoming a dominant member of the pen. If Tiedemann continues his utter domination of minor league hitters he'll be ready by July. Yes, it's a pipe dream, but it's mine.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Kikuchi with the 16.8 K/9 and 2.28 xFIP out of the pen last year could potentially be a weapon, especially if he can cut down on the walks just a hair.

 

It'd be a smart move to bring in a steady #5 like Cueto and then let Kooch work 1-2 innings at a time in middle relief and fine tune things. By mid season he might be a legit high leverage lefty if he can build up his confidence.

 

I still would like to see Taylor Rogers brought in too. Could end up with a pretty killer back end of the pen with Romano/Pearson/Rogers/Kikuchi if everything clicked.

[Laika]

Kikuchi had some good numbers in relief but he still got hit around and had major baserunner problems in those 18.1 innings.

 

He'd probably be a reliever that performs like this guy, year over year:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-alvarado/17780/stats?position=P

 

I dunno. I want to see him start again. But I'd have a shorter leash on him this year.

[Dick_Pole]

I'm not nearly as pessimistic on the Vlad and Bo extensions as others are around here. This free agent frenzy seems to go in ebbs and flows. The last round ended with guys like Pujols, Howard and Fielder absolutely s***ing the bed and teams were gun shy for years afterwards. To the point the players and agents were foaming at the mouth during the 2020 negotiations and last year's CBA. This offseason has very much the same feel to that. It'll probably reach its pinnacle next year with Ohtani. After that, all the teams that can afford to blow their loads have already done so and will likely be regretting it.

 

The baseball offseason feels like how society has been for the last year or so with inflation. With the economy turning downwards and prices stabilizing, I'm not so sure MLB owners are going to see the revenue they want this year to justify these contracts.

 

In the situation the Jays find themselves in right now, you DO NOT offer these two an extension this offseason. Maybe in the next two years you consider it when prices have levelled off a bit. But now I'm in the camp where you let these guys test free agency. I bet by the time they hit the market, the market will have dried up and they can be had at better prices to return.

 

One thing I can say about this front office, they seem excellent at threading the needle when it comes to spending. Not sure if they are good at economics, or just lucky. But so far the worst mistakes they have made are Morales, Ryu, Roark and Grichuk. Which in the grand scheme of things is nothing. Meanwhile Springer and Gausman are looking excellent and even Berrios and Kikuchi aren't looking terrible and may even look great by November 2023 if they turn it around a bit. You're looking at an extra $100 million or more to sign these same four guys versus what the Jays paid for them.

[Spanky99]

Why are you looking down your nose at Cristian Javier?

 

I'm not, just Bat > SP.

[wamco]

I'm not opposed to the idea of Kikuchi becoming a dominant member of the pen. If Tiedemann continues his utter domination of minor league hitters he'll be ready by July. Yes, it's a pipe dream, but it's mine.

 

I hope you are right about the dragon. With prospects, I always try to project about 1/2 a season longer for them to arrive due to potential challenges or injury. So if he reaches b4 playoffs I’ll be happy. Innings would need managed for that though.

[Spanky99]

Dodgers are sitting out this year to hand out the biggest contract in league history to Ohtani next year

 

Yes, yes they are.

[John_Havok]

Yes, yes they are.

 

Risky to wait, they might have to trade for him at the deadline first, which wouldnt be cheap in the way of prospect capital.

 

If he does go to FA though, I would anticipate a 500million dollar deal. If 9 years of Judge at 31 is worth 360... someone 2 years younger who's a unicorn... and will have multiple billionaire fighting over him. Dude is going to get paaaaaaaaid. He could buy the Japanese league when he's done.

[Deadpool]

[connorp]

Big contacts will continue. The market has been established. One major factor is more teams being in the playoff hunt. That means more casuals, more revenue.. higher franchise values.

 

Teams like SD and Tex aren’t even big market teams and were pretty ho hum 10 years ago. Besides the major markets, you may see another team enter the fray.

 

I don’t really remember Det going for it as BTS said other than one off season where they spent a little and people were like what’s this. This is not like Tex and SD who had some big contracts not look good this year and they were right back at it.

 

Yes, it would be great if entry franchise was like the Houston Astros and did it the “right way”.. but that’s just not how it goes

[BTS]

Big contacts will continue. The market has been established. One major factor is more teams being in the playoff hunt. That means more casuals, more revenue.. higher franchise values.

 

Teams like SD and Tex aren’t even big market teams and were pretty ho hum 10 years ago. Besides the major markets, you may see another team enter the fray.

 

I don’t really remember Det going for it as BTS said other than one off season where they spent a little and people were like what’s this. This is not like Tex and SD who had some big contracts not look good this year and they were right back at it.

 

Yes, it would be great if entry franchise was like the Houston Astros and did it the “right way”.. but that’s just not how it goes

 

8/248 for Miguel Cabrera in 2014

5/110 for Jordan Zimmermann in 2016

9/214 for Prince Fielder in 2012

4/68 for Victor Martinez in 2014

 

Looks a lot like what Texas and Philly are doing. 'Assemble a team by outbidding the rest of the league for old free agents' is not a new strategy. It has typically not been a path to success.

[Laika]

Man, Victor Martinez. Haven't read his name in a while.

[connorp]

8/248 for Miguel Cabrera in 2014

5/110 for Jordan Zimmermann in 2016

9/214 for Prince Fielder in 2012

4/68 for Victor Martinez in 2014

 

Looks a lot like what Texas and Philly are doing. 'Assemble a team by outbidding the rest of the league for old free agents' is not a new strategy. It has typically not been a path to success.

 

Not much there man. They extended their guy in Miggy. Fielder was a big contract and some bad luck. The others in there but doesn’t seem anything like SD, Mets, and Tex have been doing

[BigCecil]

I'm not nearly as pessimistic on the Vlad and Bo extensions as others are around here. This free agent frenzy seems to go in ebbs and flows. The last round ended with guys like Pujols, Howard and Fielder absolutely s***ing the bed and teams were gun shy for years afterwards. To the point the players and agents were foaming at the mouth during the 2020 negotiations and last year's CBA. This offseason has very much the same feel to that. It'll probably reach its pinnacle next year with Ohtani. After that, all the teams that can afford to blow their loads have already done so and will likely be regretting it.

 

The baseball offseason feels like how society has been for the last year or so with inflation. With the economy turning downwards and prices stabilizing, I'm not so sure MLB owners are going to see the revenue they want this year to justify these contracts.

 

In the situation the Jays find themselves in right now, you DO NOT offer these two an extension this offseason. Maybe in the next two years you consider it when prices have levelled off a bit. But now I'm in the camp where you let these guys test free agency. I bet by the time they hit the market, the market will have dried up and they can be had at better prices to return.

 

One thing I can say about this front office, they seem excellent at threading the needle when it comes to spending. Not sure if they are good at economics, or just lucky. But so far the worst mistakes they have made are Morales, Ryu, Roark and Grichuk. Which in the grand scheme of things is nothing. Meanwhile Springer and Gausman are looking excellent and even Berrios and Kikuchi aren't looking terrible and may even look great by November 2023 if they turn it around a bit. You're looking at an extra $100 million or more to sign these same four guys versus what the Jays paid for them.

 

Thats all fair. Whats now market wise could easily change a year or two out. Even without the spending frenzy this off season I still think its a long shot. Just wiht the way the FO operates and what Bo/Vlad and as importantly their Agents think they can command deal wise. Will be interesting regardless.

[Laika]

2016 was a bit of a bump year

 

look at some of these. I don't think many of these worked out for the teams.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-aav__sort_direction-0

[John_Havok]

Not much there man. They extended their guy in Miggy. Fielder was a big contract and some bad luck. The others in there but doesn’t seem anything like SD, Mets, and Tex have been doing

 

10 years ago those deals set the market though. The deals for Prince and Miggy are basically the 10-year-ago equivalent to what the big guys are getting this offseason.

[BTS]

Not much there man. They extended their guy in Miggy. Fielder was a big contract and some bad luck. The others in there but doesn’t seem anything like SD, Mets, and Tex have been doing

 

What? Those 4 contracts are almost 90% of the total payout to Semien, Seager, DeGrom and Gray and they were signed 8-10 years ago. Cabrera, Zimmermann, and Fielder are 85% of the payout to Machado, Bogaerts, and Musgrove. SD doesn't have a 4th expensive long-term contract on the books.

 

Do you just post things without thinking about whether they make sense?

[BTS]

2016 was a bit of a bump year

 

look at some of these. I don't think many of these worked out for the teams.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-aav__sort_direction-0

 

Of the top 15 in total value, I think only Greinke wasn't a disaster? Haven't looked any actual numbers up. Maybe Zobrist?

[Laika]

Of the top 15 in total value, I think only Greinke wasn't a disaster? Haven't looked any actual numbers up. Maybe Zobrist?

 

Yeah I clicked through a few. Greinke had several rock solid years and earned his money. And then they handed off most of the bag to the Astros and got Josh Rojas in the process.

[connorp]

What? Those 4 contracts are almost 90% of the total payout to Semien, Seager, DeGrom and Gray and they were signed 8-10 years ago. Cabrera, Zimmermann, and Fielder are 85% of the payout to Machado, Bogaerts, and Musgrove. SD doesn't have a 4th expensive long-term contract on the books.

 

Do you just post things without thinking about whether they make sense?

 

Well, Miggy was an extension of their own guy. So I wasn’t really thinking of it as FA move but I agree probably I should’ve considered it for the overall picture.

 

Anyways, my beliefs are the same

[Jonn]

Adames is gonna have fun hitting at Fenway.

[Laika]

Red Sox just DFA'd Jeter Downs.

 

WTF happened to him? Had really good numbers before the trade and looked like a polished hitter but has been horrendous in the Boston system.

 

lmao