The Jays can only afford 8-10 more losses in 2021 | Basic schedule analysis update

[TwistedLogic]

One loss burned.

 

15-7.

 

Two losses burned.

 

11-6.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Another 4 game win streak now would be awesome.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Eight wins down.

 

15-8.

 

Nine wins down.

 

14-7.

 

10 wins down.

 

13-7.

 

11 wins down.

 

12-7.

 

12 wins down.

 

11-7.

 

13 wins down.

 

10-6.

[TwistedLogic]

One loss burned.

 

15-7.

 

Two losses burned.

 

11-6.

 

Three losses burned.

 

10-5.

[G-Snarls]

Three losses burned.

 

10-5.

 

Ryu on the mound vs the Twins

 

Earlier this year you could have written that W in stone

[Spanky99]

Ryu on the mound vs the Twins

 

Earlier this year you could have written that W in stone

 

Why not now? Birds git bombs!

[RobinThicc]

Why not now? Birds git bombs!

Because he is pitching poorly.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Eight wins down.

 

15-8.

 

Nine wins down.

 

14-7.

 

10 wins down.

 

13-7.

 

11 wins down.

 

12-7.

 

12 wins down.

 

11-7.

 

13 wins down.

 

10-6.

 

14 wins down.

 

9-5.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Eight wins down.

 

15-8.

 

Nine wins down.

 

14-7.

 

10 wins down.

 

13-7.

 

11 wins down.

 

12-7.

 

12 wins down.

 

11-7.

 

13 wins down.

 

10-6.

 

14 wins down.

 

9-5.

 

15 wins down.

 

8-5.

[Solaxys]

Sweet. Lets sweep the rays so we can all take a breather playing .500 ball the rest of the way.

[Hipfan]

Sweet. Lets sweep the rays so we can all take a breather playing .500 ball the rest of the way.

 

I don’t see that happening; another 2/3 from them would be great. As much as I hate any time the Jays lose this month, realistically, if they take 2/3 on each series left (not unreasonable as they play Min, NYY and Bal) they will be in great shape. They could lose 2/3 against TB and still be in line for the wild card. The really just need to take care of NY, and play .500 ball otherwise.

[Abomination]

Sweeping Tampa could make things very interesting. I mean, the chances of us running the table and Tampa only winning 2 of 6 from the Marlins and Astros is remote, but non-zero.

[InvincibleTiger]

Sweeping Tampa is like winning the lottery. Not happening. 2/3 would be great

[Ryu In My House]

Sweeping Tampa is like winning the lottery. Not happening. 2/3 would be great

 

2/3 would be f***ing awesome.

 

Sweep? I can't even think that way...it would be just too beautiful.

[Dick_Pole]

To get to the 92-70 mark:

Jays 8-5

Red Sox 6-5

Yankees 9-3

A's 10-3

Mariners 12-1

 

This is an easy path for Boston. It's pretty much a guarantee for them unless they s*** the bed and lose the next 5 games. The problem is they hold the tie breaker over the Jays so even if the teams tie for the two WC spots, it won't make a difference. On the bright side the teams below these two have a massive uphill battle and the Jays hold both the tie breaker against the Yankees and A's. So if the Jays can just get to their 8-5, it should be highly likely they at least get a game #163 at home.

 

If the Jays sweep the Rays, I'm cheering for the A's over Houston because #1 in the division and in the league is still within reach. Any other outcome and the division is likely out of reach and I'd just want the A's gone.

[Spanky99]

Jays just have to take care of their own business, f*** these other teams starting with this upcoming 7 game road trip.

[Abomination]

To get to the 92-70 mark:

Jays 8-5

Red Sox 6-5

Yankees 9-3

A's 10-3

Mariners 12-1

 

This is an easy path for Boston. It's pretty much a guarantee for them unless they s*** the bed and lose the next 5 games. The problem is they hold the tie breaker over the Jays so even if the teams tie for the two WC spots, it won't make a difference. On the bright side the teams below these two have a massive uphill battle and the Jays hold both the tie breaker against the Yankees and A's. So if the Jays can just get to their 8-5, it should be highly likely they at least get a game #163 at home.

 

If the Jays sweep the Rays, I'm cheering for the A's over Houston because #1 in the division and in the league is still within reach. Any other outcome and the division is likely out of reach and I'd just want the A's gone.

 

You might want to read how the tie break rules work again.

[Dick_Pole]

You might want to read how the tie break rules work again.

 

Not sure where you think I went wrong? Tie breaker games apply to divisions but not wild card seeds.

[Abomination]

Not sure where you think I went wrong? Tie breaker games apply to divisions but not wild card seeds.

 

Wild card seeds mean nothing except hosting the wild card game. Getting to the playoffs is all that's important with the remaining schedules right now. There is no massive uphill battle because of tie breakers.

[Spanky99]

Explained in laymen terms...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2021-postseason-tiebreaker-scenarios

[Dick_Pole]

Wild card seeds mean nothing except hosting the wild card game. Getting to the playoffs is all that's important with the remaining schedules right now. There is no massive uphill battle because of tie breakers.

 

What in the hell are you talking about? The massive uphill battle rests with the Yankees and A's. Maybe read my message again. IF one of these teams were to tie the Jays for WC2, that would at least mean the Jays get game #163 at home. That's the minimum bar to think about right now if the team goes that reasonable 8-5.

[Abomination]

What in the hell are you talking about? The massive uphill battle rests with the Yankees and A's. Maybe read my message again. IF one of these teams were to tie the Jays for WC2, that would at least mean the Jays get game #163 at home. That's the minimum bar to think about right now if the team goes that reasonable 8-5.

 

Home field doesn't seem to matter that much in the playoffs (in baseball), at least assuming you aren't hiding video cameras around the stadium and banging trash cans. The last article I saw seemed to suggest approximately a 5% advantage or something. Guys are locked into the game in the playoffs much more than the regular season. It would be nice for the fans for it to be in Toronto, but from a practical point of view capturing one of the two slots is really the only thing that matters. Not worrying about which, but rather lining up the right pitcher, etc, would be a far bigger benefit. What I'm trying to say is, going into the final game of the season, if we have a spot locked up but whether it's the first or second wild card is still on the line, we should focus on having rested players and especially a rested pen over whether or not we host the wild card game.

[Spanky99]

Home field doesn't seem to matter that much in the playoffs (in baseball), at least assuming you aren't hiding video cameras around the stadium and banging trash cans. The last article I saw seemed to suggest approximately a 5% advantage or something. Guys are locked into the game in the playoffs much more than the regular season. It would be nice for the fans for it to be in Toronto, but from a practical point of view capturing one of the two slots is really the only thing that matters. Not worrying about which, but rather lining up the right pitcher, etc, would be a far bigger benefit. What I'm trying to say is, going into the final game of the season, if we have a spot locked up but whether it's the first or second wild card is still on the line, we should focus on having rested players and especially a rested pen over whether or not we host the wild card game.

 

What if it's this scenario... Also, I'd rather play in Toronto, bro! HAHA...

 

Scenario: Three-team tie for two Wild Card spots

 

If the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox were all tied, with no other non-division winners in the AL ahead of them, the three teams would choose/receive A, B and C designations. Club A would host Club B. The winner of that game would be one Wild Card club, while the loser would then play Club C on the road to determine the other. The winners of the two games would face each other in the Wild Card Game.

 

The three designations are decided by head-to-head records. The Red Sox went 10-9 against the Blue Jays and, as of this writing, are 10-6 against the Yankees, so they would have the first pick of designation. The Blue Jays are also 10-6 against the Yanks, as of this writing, so they would pick second. The Yankees would get whichever designation is left over. The first selection comes down to a choice of playing up to two games (Club A) or taking your chances as the home team in a single elimination game (Club C).

[G-Snarls]

Jays 18-4 in their last 22

 

Woot!!

[The Cats Ass]

What if it's this scenario... Also, I'd rather play in Toronto, bro! HAHA...

Scenario: Three-team tie for two Wild Card spots

 

If the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox were all tied, with no other non-division winners in the AL ahead of them, the three teams would choose/receive A, B and C designations. Club A would host Club B. The winner of that game would be one Wild Card club, while the loser would then play Club C on the road to determine the other. The winners of the two games would face each other in the Wild Card Game.

 

The three designations are decided by head-to-head records. The Red Sox went 10-9 against the Blue Jays and, as of this writing, are 10-6 against the Yankees, so they would have the first pick of designation. The Blue Jays are also 10-6 against the Yanks, as of this writing, so they would pick second. The Yankees would get whichever designation is left over. The first selection comes down to a choice of playing up to two games (Club A) or taking your chances as the home team in a single elimination game (Club C).

 

That would be a fun way to end the regular season. I imagine the Sox would take A, Jays would take B, Yankees would end up with C. Who would choose to play in a single elimination game instead of having to lose twice?

[TheHurl]

Home field doesn't seem to matter that much in the playoffs (in baseball), at least assuming you aren't hiding video cameras around the stadium and banging trash cans. The last article I saw seemed to suggest approximately a 5% advantage or something. Guys are locked into the game in the playoffs much more than the regular season. It would be nice for the fans for it to be in Toronto, but from a practical point of view capturing one of the two slots is really the only thing that matters. Not worrying about which, but rather lining up the right pitcher, etc, would be a far bigger benefit. What I'm trying to say is, going into the final game of the season, if we have a spot locked up but whether it's the first or second wild card is still on the line, we should focus on having rested players and especially a rested pen over whether or not we host the wild card game.

 

From a 2020 SI article.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/09/14/baseball-playoffs-myths

 

There is some recency bias associated with this myth, seeing that the home team lost all seven World Series games last year. But don’t be fooled by that small sample.

 

Home field in the postseason from 2010-19 returned a win percentage of .539—that’s better than the regular-season rate during the decade, .535.

 

And as the playoffs expanded and as ballparks grew louder, home-field has become a bigger advantage. It returned a win percentage of .527 in the first five decades of the live ball era (1920-69), but a .553 win percentage in the next five decades.

 

(For some reason, the 1980s were the glory years for the home teams. They won 63% of the time. The Dodgers, Cardinals and Twins went 35-9 at home in the postseason that decade.)

[TwistedLogic]

One loss burned.

 

15-7.

 

Two losses burned.

 

11-6.

 

Three losses burned.

 

10-5.

 

Four losses burned.

 

8-4.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Eight wins down.

 

15-8.

 

Nine wins down.

 

14-7.

 

10 wins down.

 

13-7.

 

11 wins down.

 

12-7.

 

12 wins down.

 

11-7.

 

13 wins down.

 

10-6.

 

14 wins down.

 

9-5.

 

15 wins down.

 

8-5.

 

16 wins down.

 

7-4.

[Signal]

Just want to say that I love this thread. While many may have thought it unnecessary at the time - it has turned out to be gold. No matter how this thing plays out.

[LeafsSuck1967]

It was fun while it lasted.

 

Yankee$ will just bring too much viewership for this crooked league.