Rosterbation Discussion Thread (2021)

[Deadpool]

I wouldn't say need but more so want after seeing how effective the lineup was when we were fully healthy. It was damn near dominant and covered up a lot of issues with our crappy bullpen. The lineup you posted makes me sad after seeing last year's lineup.

 

We just spent 12M a year on a 5th starter when that money should have been used for a 3B if the lineup you posted is indeed our opening day lineup. I'm more happy with Pearson/Stripling fighting for the 5th spot than I am seeing Espinal/Smith fight for the 3B spot.

 

Disagree. I think adding a decent 5th starter has more value than upgrading on Espinal/Smith. While I think Stripling/Pearson should be more than adequate, there's no way we're getting through a full season (with a short spring) only needing 5 starters.

 

Team is going to score enough runs to win (almost) every game as currently constructed, but as you rightly pointed out, the pitching (specifically bullpen) had issues and let us down in 2021.

[wamco]

Maybe Pearson should come in for the 6 and 7th after ryu throws 5 sharp innings

[Scion]

While it would be nice to replace Semien's bat, I don't actually think this team as currently constructed NEEDS to do that.

 

Springer

Bichette

Teo

Vladdy

Lourdes

Biggio

Jansen/Kirk

Espinal

Grichuk/Smith/Palacios

 

That's a lineup that will score some runs. I disagree with the idea that we won't be right in the thick of the playoff race if we don't get another bat.

 

Fair enough, but there has to be significant improvement somewhere to make up for Semien's lost WAR. Most of the moves to this point have been either lateral (Gausman) or marginal adds with upside (Kikuchi and Garcia). To keep pace in this division I think the Jays need at least one more significant acquisition, preferably in the infield. Hoping that Biggio and Espinal will be solid everyday contributors is poor roster construction IMO.

 

Matt Chapman is the target I hope the Jays acquire because I'm very skeptical about the teams ability to defend.

[Deadpool]

Fair enough, but there has to be significant improvement somewhere to make up for Semien's lost WAR. Most of the moves to this point have been either lateral (Gausman) or marginal adds with upside (Kikuchi and Garcia). To keep pace in this division I think the Jays need at least one more significant acquisition, preferably in the infield. Hoping that Biggio and Espinal will be solid everyday contributors is poor roster construction IMO.

 

Matt Chapman is the target I hope the Jays acquire because I'm very skeptical about the teams ability to defend.

 

Semien was great for the Jays last season, but losing 6.6 WAR isn't going to crush this team. A healthy Biggio likely puts up 3+ WAR over a full season at 2B.

 

The Jays missed the playoffs last season because of the bullpen. Full stop. They have improved on that by leaps and bounds (much of it during the season last year), they have also shored up starting pitching for good measure.

 

If we get someone like Chapman or Donaldson for prospects in the Van Eyk tier I'm good, but I'm really not interested in emptying the farm for Ramirez and his 2 years of control when we have a few promising MiLB guys who should be ready for a 3B job sooner rather than later, nor am I interested in signing someone to a monster 6 year deal when we have Vladdys and Bos to extend.

 

With the obvious caveat of health, the team as constructed right now is a World Series contender, so adding bigger pieces is a nice luxury, not a necessity.

[L54]

The team doesn’t need to replace the 7 (wow!) wins Semien provided through one player. The rotation now vs to start 2021 probably covers most of it already. You hopefully get 130 games from Springer, a better Biggio and bullpen and they should win 90+ relatively easily.

[L54]

I think at this point I’d be fine with Matt Chapman at third. His offensive profile is fairly redundant but the price should be moderate and like Scion said his defense would be welcome on the infield with the amount of GB’s the rotation is going to get.

[Spanky99]

I wouldn't say need but more so want after seeing how effective the lineup was when we were fully healthy. It was damn near dominant and covered up a lot of issues with our crappy bullpen. The lineup you posted makes me sad after seeing last year's lineup.

 

We just spent 12M a year on a 5th starter when that money should have been used for a 3B if the lineup you posted is indeed our opening day lineup. I'm more happy with Pearson/Stripling fighting for the 5th spot than I am seeing Espinal/Smith fight for the 3B spot.

 

Off-Season is not over, sky isn't falling, mate.

[Spanky99]

Fair enough, but there has to be significant improvement somewhere to make up for Semien's lost WAR. Most of the moves to this point have been either lateral (Gausman) or marginal adds with upside (Kikuchi and Garcia). To keep pace in this division I think the Jays need at least one more significant acquisition, preferably in the infield. Hoping that Biggio and Espinal will be solid everyday contributors is poor roster construction IMO.

 

Matt Chapman is the target I hope the Jays acquire because I'm very skeptical about the teams ability to defend.

 

We're forgetting the Berrios extension, I see.

[AdamGreenwood]

The team doesn’t need to replace the 7 (wow!) wins Semien provided through one player. The rotation now vs to start 2021 probably covers most of it already. You hopefully get 130 games from Springer, a better Biggio and bullpen and they should win 90+ relatively easily.

 

You think replacing the Cy Young winner with Gausman and replacing Matz with Kikuchi nets us close to 7 wins? I don't think so. Break even at best.

[Spanky99]

You think replacing the Cy Young winner with Gausman and replacing Matz with Kikuchi nets us close to 7 wins? I don't think so. Break even at best.

 

Full season with Berrios comes pretty close, a healthy Springer/Biggio not to mention who plays third and the pen upgrades. This team has improved quite noticeably.

[Grant77]

You think replacing the Cy Young winner with Gausman and replacing Matz with Kikuchi nets us close to 7 wins? I don't think so. Break even at best.

 

Our pythagorean record was 99-63 last season so a break even would be just fine.

[Scion]

Semien was great for the Jays last season, but losing 6.6 WAR isn't going to crush this team. A healthy Biggio likely puts up 3+ WAR over a full season at 2B.

 

The Jays missed the playoffs last season because of the bullpen. Full stop. They have improved on that by leaps and bounds (much of it during the season last year), they have also shored up starting pitching for good measure.

 

If we get someone like Chapman or Donaldson for prospects in the Van Eyk tier I'm good, but I'm really not interested in emptying the farm for Ramirez and his 2 years of control when we have a few promising MiLB guys who should be ready for a 3B job sooner rather than later, nor am I interested in signing someone to a monster 6 year deal when we have Vladdys and Bos to extend.

 

With the obvious caveat of health, the team as constructed right now is a World Series contender, so adding bigger pieces is a nice luxury, not a necessity.

 

Cavan could do that, but I wouldn't be planning my roster with that assumption because he could just as easily replicate last season's performance, and then we are f***ed. I'm also not as high on the pen as you seem to be, I think additional additions are needed there. It's certainly better than the start of last season, but where does it rank in the division? Third at best, and perhaps even lower depending on what you think about the Red Sox relievers.

[Scion]

We're forgetting the Berrios extension, I see.

 

You are right a full season of Berrios changes the projections, but if we get second half Ryu that may off-set the net benefit a little bit.

[Scion]

Our pythagorean record was 99-63 last season so a break even would be just fine.

 

Break-even is a pretty optimistic projection considering Ray won the Cy last year and Matz was worth just below 3 wins.

[Deadpool]

Cavan could do that, but I wouldn't be planning my roster with that assumption because he could just as easily replicate last season's performance, and then we are f***ed. I'm also not as high on the pen as you seem to be, I think additional additions are needed there. It's certainly better than the start of last season, but where does it rank in the division? Third at best, and perhaps even lower depending on what you think about the Red Sox relievers.

 

If Biggio was injured and out the whole season, we would most assuredly not be "f***ed". This is a very, very good team.

 

Obviously health could be a factor, it could be for any team, but this was out starting rotation for opening day 2021:

 

Hyun Jin Ryu, T.J. Zeuch, Steven Matz, Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling (Ray was on the IL).

 

This was the bullpen for opening day 2021:

 

Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Ryan Borucki, Tyler Chatwood, David Phelps, Julian Merryweather, Tim Mayza, Trent Thornton, Joel Payamps

 

So, we're down shitbags Zoinks and Roark from the rotation, and shittierbags Dolis, Chatwood, Payamps from the bullpen.

 

We also are not rostering Joe Panik, and I cannot stress enough how much better that makes the 2022 team.

 

There were a LOT more holes in the 2021 team than the 2022 team.

[Grant77]

Break-even is a pretty optimistic projection considering Ray won the Cy last year and Matz was worth just below 3 wins.

 

Awards aside, Gausman had 4.8 WAR and Ray had 3.9. I think Ray/Matz to Gausman/Kikuchi is pretty much a wash projection wise.

 

I'm optimistic that Springer and Berrios will cover some of the production lost when Semien left. There are still additions to be made as well. We'll have to see what the next couple of weeks bring before making any firm predictions.

[Scion]

If Biggio was injured and out the whole season, we would most assuredly not be "f***ed". This is a very, very good team.

 

Obviously health could be a factor, it could be for any team, but this was out starting rotation for opening day 2021:

 

Hyun Jin Ryu, T.J. Zeuch, Steven Matz, Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling (Ray was on the IL).

 

This was the bullpen for opening day 2021:

 

Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Ryan Borucki, Tyler Chatwood, David Phelps, Julian Merryweather, Tim Mayza, Trent Thornton, Joel Payamps

 

So, we're down shitbags Zoinks and Roark from the rotation, and shittierbags Dolis, Chatwood, Payamps from the bullpen.

 

We also are not rostering Joe Panik, and I cannot stress enough how much better that makes the 2022 team.

 

There were a LOT more holes in the 2021 team than the 2022 team.

 

Listing the opening day rotation is misleading. Ray missed two starts and Manoah was a mainstay by late May IIRC.

 

We aren't going to see eye to eye on the infield. I think if Biggio and Espinal revert to pumpkins that we are in alot of trouble. The team won't suck, but I don't see them replicating last season much less building on it like I anticipate.

[Spanky99]

Break-even is a pretty optimistic projection considering Ray won the Cy last year and Matz was worth just below 3 wins.

 

Pssttt... Gausman was better, well, unless we look at RA-9 WAR. And Matz/Kikuchi's a wash.

[Scion]

Awards aside, Gausman had 4.8 WAR and Ray had 3.9. I think Ray/Matz to Gausman/Kikuchi is pretty much a wash projection wise.

 

I'm optimistic that Springer and Berrios will cover some of the production lost when Semien left. There are still additions to be made as well. We'll have to see what the next couple of weeks bring before making any firm predictions.

 

Fangraphs WAR really seemed to undervalue Rays run prevention last year due to his HR and strand rate. I personally like Gausman more, but I'm not banking on either pitcher to replicate what Ray did last year. The rest of your post I agree with.

[Spanky99]

You are right a full season of Berrios changes the projections, but if we get second half Ryu that may off-set the net benefit a little bit.

 

Manoah? It's just internal transition, Ryu should be fine.

[Spanky99]

If Biggio was injured and out the whole season, we would most assuredly not be "f***ed". This is a very, very good team.

 

Obviously health could be a factor, it could be for any team, but this was out starting rotation for opening day 2021:

 

Hyun Jin Ryu, T.J. Zeuch, Steven Matz, Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling (Ray was on the IL).

 

This was the bullpen for opening day 2021:

 

Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Ryan Borucki, Tyler Chatwood, David Phelps, Julian Merryweather, Tim Mayza, Trent Thornton, Joel Payamps

 

So, we're down shitbags Zoinks and Roark from the rotation, and shittierbags Dolis, Chatwood, Payamps from the bullpen.

 

We also are not rostering Joe Panik, and I cannot stress enough how much better that makes the 2022 team.

 

There were a LOT more holes in the 2021 team than the 2022 team.

 

We also had pretty immaculate SP health, but we're doing a great job filling depth as well. I feel good going into this season and that's without adding more help, they will upgrade however.

[Deadpool]

Listing the opening day rotation is misleading. Ray missed two starts and Manoah was a mainstay by late May IIRC.

 

We aren't going to see eye to eye on the infield. I think if Biggio and Espinal revert to pumpkins that we are in alot of trouble. The team won't suck, but I don't see them replicating last season much less building on it like I anticipate.

 

Chatwood was tanking games for the Jays until early July; Dolis until August; Payamps until late June; Panik until late June; Zoinks last start was June 17th.

 

There was a LOT of dead weight on the 2021 Jays.

[Scion]

Pssttt... Gausman was better, well, unless we look at RA-9 WAR. And Matz/Kikuchi's a wash.

 

The thing about past performance is that it's already done. Whether you think Ray's performance is sustainable is irrelevant. He posted a 2.84 ERA with 193.1 IP last year and that is production the Jays will look to replace next year likely through multiple players.

[Scion]

Chatwood was tanking games for the Jays until early July; Dolis until August; Payamps until late June; Panik until late June; Zoinks last start was June 17th.

 

There was a LOT of dead weight on the 2021 Jays.

 

I'm not debating the pen pre ASB or the injuries to Springer.

[Deadpool]

We also had pretty immaculate SP health, but we're doing a great job filling depth as well. I feel good going into this season and that's without adding more help, they will upgrade however.

 

Like I've said, I think this team is a World Series contender as is, my concern is that they drain significant top-end prospect capital and/or spend enough that they cannot retain Vladdy/Bo.

 

I'd like to see a second tier acquisition for 3B (Better than Villar, cheaper than Ramirez or Bryant), some minor league signings for depth, and maybe another bullpen arm or two. Also, Shatkins did a great job making improvements during the season last year, so if something isn't working, I'm sure they'll be able to patch it up as needed.

[Spanky99]

The thing about past performance is that it's already done. Whether you think Ray's performance is sustainable is irrelevant. He posted a 2.84 ERA with 193.1 IP last year and that is production the Jays will look to replace next year likely through multiple players.

 

Uhmm... Gausman, we signed Gausman, man.

[Deadpool]

Uhmm... Gausman, we signed Gausman, man.

 

I know, it's not like Gausman pitched 192 innings with a 2.81 ERA or anything

[Spanky99]

Like I've said, I think this team is a World Series contender as is, my concern is that they drain significant top-end prospect capital and/or spend enough that they cannot retain Vladdy/Bo.

 

I'd like to see a second tier acquisition for 3B (Better than Villar, cheaper than Ramirez or Bryant), some minor league signings for depth, and maybe another bullpen arm or two. Also, Shatkins did a great job making improvements during the season last year, so if something isn't working, I'm sure they'll be able to patch it up as needed.

 

I'm sure they've already had discussions concerning those two or are an open book type of negotiations, I doubt they'll handcuff themselves.

[Deadpool]

I'm sure they've already had discussions concerning those two or are an open book type of negotiations, I doubt they'll handcuff themselves.

 

Shatkins have done a good enough job to earn my trust, so I'm sure you are correct.

[Spanky99]

The thing about past performance is that it's already done. Whether you think Ray's performance is sustainable is irrelevant. He posted a 2.84 ERA with 193.1 IP last year and that is production the Jays will look to replace next year likely through multiple players.

 

Also, why'd you ghost your Hockey Dynasty League... Booooo!!!