General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[Stangstag]

He's a solid 5th but he is the worst of the five by projected FIP and ERA. Not a massive gap between him and Manoah.

 

Related point - Ryu might be at a talent inflection point that projections don't appreciate. He's been pretty s***** for a while. Is this him declining into a SP4 soft tosser for the rest of his contract?

 

Nah, he’ll bounce back next year. I don’t think he’ll put up 2020 numbers again but he’ll be a solid 2/3

[Laika]

Why should we care about what projections say when reality has been something completely different? Ryu has been torched for 7 runs in 3 of his last 7 starts totalling only 21 innings, whereas Matz has been pitching like a solid number 3 if not better.

 

You're smarter than this.

[max silver]

Wouldn't Yankees would be crazy to not sign Marcus? If he was LHH it would be better for that park, but he is exactly what they need for next 3 years on offense and defense and just seems like a total pro.

 

They already broke the bank on another older second baseman in LeMahieu. Although Semien would be a great fit to play short stop for the Yankees...

[max silver]

You're smarter than this.

 

Is looking at projections like they are set in stone while simultaneously ignoring what has actually happened on the field smart in your view? Matz is rolling right now and has thrown up 7 very solid consecutive starts, whereas Ryu is a total crapshoot and has had 3 awful starts out of his last 7. If this trend continues through the rest of September would you trust Ryu to get a playoff start assuming the club makes the playoffs this season?

[Laika]

Is looking at projections like they are set in stone while simultaneously ignoring what has actually happened on the field smart in your view? Matz is rolling right now and has thrown up 7 very solid consecutive starts, whereas Ryu is a total crapshoot and has had 3 awful starts out of his last 7. If this trend continues through the rest of September would you trust Ryu to get a playoff start assuming the club makes the playoffs this season?

 

So you legitimately think Matz is better than Ryu, on talent, and you would start Matz over Ryu in a playoff game?

 

Alright maybe you're not smarter than that. Carry on.

[max silver]

So you legitimately think Matz is better than Ryu, on talent, and you would start Matz over Ryu in a playoff game?

 

Alright maybe you're not smarter than that. Carry on.

 

Based on what I've seen this season and especially recently I would absolutely start Matz over Ryu. Have you already forgotten the stinker Ryu threw up against the Rays last playoffs? That's what Ryu has been pitching like recently a good chunk of the time. You can point at projections all you want like Ryu's past performance somehow erases how damn poorly he's been pitching lately, but I choose to actually pay attention to what's happening this season and more importantly recently when making my decision.

[Jimcanuck]

There is a lot more info that the Jays have that is more reliable than projections or recent outcomes.

 

Let's see how Ryu does in his next few starts. Could just be a blip, every player goes through peaks and valleys.

[Jonn]

Wouldn't Yankees would be crazy to not sign Marcus? If he was LHH it would be better for that park, but he is exactly what they need for next 3 years on offense and defense and just seems like a total pro.

 

They have a lot of money locked into some guys already. They say they want to stay below 200 million. Semien would surely take them over that. That’s the only question.

[Laika]

Based on what I've seen this season and especially recently I would absolutely start Matz over Ryu. Have you already forgotten the stinker Ryu threw up against the Rays last playoffs? That's what Ryu has been pitching like recently a good chunk of the time. You can point at projections all you want like Ryu's past performance somehow erases how damn poorly he's been pitching lately, but I choose to actually pay attention to what's happening this season and more importantly recently when making my decision.

 

wait, you actually watch the games?

 

that only allows bias to creep in, you know.

[John_Havok]

You're smarter than this.

 

ERA man, just look at the ERA….duh

[glory]

Related point - Ryu might be at a talent inflection point that projections don't appreciate. He's been pretty s***** for a while. Is this him declining into a SP4 soft tosser for the rest of his contract?

 

Since June, Ryu has a 4.98 ERA (4.34 FIP) and 6.61 K/9 in about 100 innings. This being the start of his decline is very possible. As long as he's healthy, then hopefully he can serve as a league average ish innings guy (think 2015 Buehrle/Dickey), which will have value, but we might be seeing why no other team wanted to go above 3 years for him.

[max silver]

ERA man, just look at the ERA….duh

 

Do you have a point here? Ryu's FIP for the second half is much better than his ERA but I hope you aren't going to point to that as an indication he's actually been pitching well. He's been getting his face pounded in basically every other start going back a month and a half. If that pattern continues it would be a very foolish move to start thean in a playoff game.

[John_Havok]

Ryu's FIP for the second half is much better than his ERA but I hope you aren't going to point to that as an indication he's actually been pitching well.

 

Well….when you understand what FIP is…naw. I won’t bother. It would be like talking to Buck Martinez about pitcher wins.

[max silver]

Well….when you understand what FIP is…naw. I won’t bother. It would be like talking to Buck Martinez about pitcher wins.

You can take your condescending tone and shove it up your ass for all I care. Who says I don't understand FIP? I just think there are far better metrics available as there are far too many outliers for FIP as compared to actual ERA, and Ryu's recent performance is a perfect example of this. My preferred pitching metric is actually xERA but I simply quoted ERA as it is perfectly indicative for how poorly Ryu has been pitching in the second half and how well Matz has been pitching by comparison.

 

Look at Robbie Ray for instance. He's a perfect example of the shortcomings of FIP for measuring pitcher performance. If a guy is consistently outperforming or underperforming compared to their FIP values then is it really that valuable in the instance for measuring their actual performance?

 

Bring on the debate, I get the feeling you would rather make lazy assumptions and tske the easy way out instead of actually carrying out an intelligent conversation.

[John_Havok]

You can take your condescending tone and shove it up your ass for all I care. Who says I don't understand FIP? I just think there are far better metrics available as there are far too many outliers for FIP as compared to actual ERA, and Ryu's recent performance is a perfect example of this. My preferred pitching metric is actually xERA but I simply quoted ERA as it is perfectly indicative for how poorly Ryu has been pitching in the second half and how well Matz has been pitching by comparison.

 

Look at Robbie Ray for instance. He's a perfect example of the shortcomings of FIP for measuring pitcher performance. If a guy is consistently outperforming or underperforming compared to their FIP values then is it really that valuable in the instance for measuring their actual performance?

 

Bring on the debate, I get the feeling you would rather make lazy assumptions and tske the easy way out instead of actually carrying out an intelligent conversation.

 

You’re not looking for debate, you’re looking at a few numbers, have a pre-formed bias, including a very healthy dose of recency bias and trying to somehow prove that Matz is a better pitcher than Ryu.

 

It’s laughable. It’s not worthy of debate.

 

Ryu is a better pitcher, currently getting worse results largely due to fluctuations in batted ball luck outside of his control. Matz is a worse pitcher, currently getting better results largely due to fluctuations in batter ball luck beyond his control.

[max silver]

You’re not looking for debate, you’re looking at a few numbers, have a pre-formed bias, including a very healthy dose of recency bias and trying to somehow prove that Matz is a better pitcher than Ryu.

 

It’s laughable. It’s not worthy of debate.

 

Ryu is a better pitcher, currently getting worse results largely due to fluctuations in batted ball luck outside of his control. Matz is a worse pitcher, currently getting better results largely due to fluctuations in batter ball luck beyond his control.

Taking the lazy dismissive stance again I see. I challenge you you to present statistical backup to prove that Ryu is pitching better than Matz is for the second half of the season. I don't care right now what each guy has done in the past. It's extremely lazy "analysis" to point to BABIP as a reason for poor performance for a pitcher who has given up 7 runs in 3 separate games. Are you are going to try to convince me that Ryu is the world's unluckiest man and not a soft tossing pitcher missing his spots contently and getting shelled as a result? Good luck.

[InvincibleTiger]

Biggest test of the season tomorrow. Against a team that historically owns us and our arch nemesis on the mound for them.

[InsideThePark]

Danny Jansen has a wRC+ of 103. Above average hitter Danny Jansen.

[G-Snarls]

Danny Jansen has a wRC+ of 103. Above average hitter Danny Jansen.

 

We have 3 legit MLB caliber catchers and a grade A cathcing prospect working his way up

 

Gotta love it

[Laika]

Danny Jansen has a wRC+ of 103. Above average hitter Danny Jansen.

 

Haha this is crazy

[InvincibleTiger]

Biggest test of the season tomorrow. Against a team that historically owns us and our arch nemesis on the mound for them.

 

Yarbrough scratched tomorrow according to theScore app. Mchugh starting..

[saskjayfan]

Yarbrough scratched tomorrow according to theScore app. Mchugh starting..

 

i heard he was just an opener for Yarbrough.

[Laika]

Have there been any injury updates on Biggio and Espinal? Looks like Biggio played yesterday in the minors.

 

Not that we need them. I'm just curious what the team will do when they are back.

[intentional wok]

The Blue Jays scored 44 times in the last three games (two of which were only 7-innings in length).

[John_Havok]

The Blue Jays scored 44 times in the last three games (two of which were only 7-innings in length).

 

And all 3 games played in 24 hours

[max silver]

The Blue Jays scored 44 times in the last three games (two of which were only 7-innings in length).

33 runs in their last 10 innings is even more impressive.

[saskjayfan]

Have there been any injury updates on Biggio and Espinal? Looks like Biggio played yesterday in the minors.

 

Not that we need them. I'm just curious what the team will do when they are back.

 

I just noticed Biggio played the last 2 games with Buffalo 1 for 6. He hit a double. He's been out for so long, it's going to take some at bats to get his timing down. I'm thinking he could be an option for the Twins series if there's no set backs.

[keggy]

Danny Jansen has a wRC+ of 103. Above average hitter Danny Jansen.

 

Also Danny Jansen is a better hitter than Randal Grichuk.

[Ray]

Haha this is crazy

 

He was one of the more unluckier hitters in baseball last season, so I expected him to have some positive regression this season. Statcast backs him up too:

 

89.6 mph avg exit velo

43% hard hit rate

 

Hopefully he can keep it up.

[bones10]

He was one of the more unluckier hitters in baseball last season, so I expected him to have some positive regression this season. Statcast backs him up too:

 

89.6 mph avg exit velo

43% hard hit rate

 

Hopefully he can keep it up.

 

Have you seen his swing? He's running into a few right now, don't expect it to continue.

 

He is the best defensive catcher on the team though, so its not a complete loss cause.