General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[Spanky99]

Paxton has been just fine outside of 20 innings last year. You’re banking on the same thing you’re banking on with Kirby Yates. And you’re likely only looking at giving him a 1 year contract, as well.

 

Bauer on the other hand is going to command a huge contract, and has several red flags both on and off the field. He has basically been openly cheating, which the MLB will likely eventually put a stop to, because it’s it’s been hurting the aesthetics of the sport. And then there are things like this:

 

 

Yeah, she's a miserable bitch, right? Yates and Paxton are hardly similar, lol

[vaff]

Trevor Bauer has no performance related red flags. Pretty much every pitcher in baseball is using something to enhance their grip, so unless MLB decides to fully crack down on everybody Bauer is going to be perfectly fine to continue doing what he's doing. Besides the alleged cheating (we have no proof, only suspicions at this point) he's produced elite results with spin rates within his typical career norms before 2020. He typically stays healthy, limits walks, provides plenty of innings, induces weak contact and racks up strikeouts. This is an elite pitcher by any measure that you want to look at.

 

James Paxton is a broken down oft injured starter who you can bank on missing several starts every season. He is coming off of back surgery and a forearm injury in 2020, and his results on the field were terrible. There is a good chance with a full off season to strengthen up that he will bounce back, but he is several tiers behind Trevor Bauer in the ranks of starting pitchers.

 

There is no denying that Bauer is a prick off of the field (sometimes on the field too, thinking of the ball tossed into the center field stands episode) but he's one of baseballs best starters. Signing this guy instantly elevates the Jays into true contender status. Paxton would be a nice fallback option banking on a bounceback season, but he's far from a sure thing to provide value on whatever contract he obtains. Bauer has a potential ceiling of 7 WAR with a good season by his standards, and a poor season by his recent standards would be 3 WAR. A good season for Paxton places him in the 3-3.5 WAR range, which is the lower range you could reasonably expect for Bauer.

 

I don’t think Paxton is the better pitcher. Mind you I did say he’s had the better career to this date. I would just feel more comfortable signing him for one year as a reclamation project, than giving Bauer the contract he will command. Giving any pitcher a mega contract that extends into their mid-late 30s is incredibly risky, imo.

 

Also, it’s not like we have an unlimited budget. Giving Bauer a contract like that could cut into our resources that we need to keep our core players, when the time comes.

[vaff]

Yeah, she's a miserable bitch, right? Yates and Paxton are hardly similar, lol

 

Saying what you said is pretty low.

 

And yeah, they’re not similar — Paxton has a much longer track record. And relievers are very fickle.

[max silver]

I don’t think Paxton is the better pitcher. Mind you I did say he’s had the better career to this date. I would just feel more comfortable signing him for one year as a reclamation project, than giving Bauer the contract he will command. Giving any pitcher a mega contract that extends into their mid-late 30s is incredibly risky, imo.

 

Also, it’s not like we have an unlimited budget. Giving Bauer a contract like that could cut into our resources that we need to keep our core players, when the time comes.

 

There's no point in even comparing who has had a better career up to this point in discussing which pitcher is a better target. Bauer has recently found another level of performance which is more indicative of his potential going forward. I'm on the fence as well about handing out a mega contract to Bauer as well, but provided ownership is willing to provide the necessary funds to continue building the roster around the addition of Bauer then I say get it done. Similar to what was done with Springer, the Jays could front load Bauer's contract as well so as not to interfere with a ability to extend the young core. Adding an elite starter to a weak starting rotation is the biggest single upgrade that's available to the club right now, with where they fall on the win curve every potential added win is massive.

 

The Jays have several very high quality potential reinforcements in the minor leagues as well, so it's no given that all of the players on the current roster are going to be kept long term. With prospects like Martin, Groshans, Martinez, Moreno etc. there are cheap potential core players in the system which may be able to provide cheap production to the club in the future.

[saskjayfan]

Saying what you said is pretty low.

 

And yeah, they’re not similar — Paxton has a much longer track record. And relievers are very fickle.

 

Paxton has crazy good stuff. There's nothing wrong with saying his stuff was as good or better than Bauer. It's a health thing. Is he broken down enough that he never gets back to his previous form? He wouldn't be commanding 1 and 12 if people thought that it was likely he could get back to being the same pitcher. Still it's not out of the realm of possibility.

[vaff]

There's no point in even comparing who has had a better career up to this point in discussing which pitcher is a better target. Bauer has recently found another level of performance which is more indicative of his potential going forward. I'm on the fence as well about handing out a mega contract to Bauer as well, but provided ownership is willing to provide the necessary funds to continue building the roster around the addition of Bauer then I say get it done. Similar to what was done with Springer, the Jays could front load Bauer's contract as well so as not to interfere with a ability to extend the young core. Adding an elite starter to a weak starting rotation is the biggest single upgrade that's available to the club right now, with where they fall on the win curve every potential added win is massive.

 

The Jays have several very high quality potential reinforcements in the minor leagues as well, so it's no given that all of the players on the current roster are going to be kept long term. With prospects like Martin, Groshans, Martinez, Moreno etc. there are cheap potential core players in the system which may be able to provide cheap production to the club in the future.

 

He’s found another level by blatantly cheating. I know it’s very widespread amongst pitchers, I’m just of the belief that the MLB will put a stop to it soon. I don’t think that out of naïveté, “oh, they’re cheating, no way the wholesome MLB will let that stand.” I think they’ll put a stop to it because it’s hurting the product. It’s become so three true outcome heavy, that it’s turning people off. I mean, the strike out rate in the MLB has increased for 14 straight years.

 

[max silver]

He’s found another level by blatantly cheating. I know it’s very widespread amongst pitchers, I’m just of the belief that the MLB will put a stop to it soon. I don’t think that out of naïveté, “oh, they’re cheating, no way the wholesome MLB will let that stand.” I think they’ll put a stop to it because it’s hurting the product. It’s become so three true outcome heavy, that it’s turning people off. I mean, the strike out rate in the MLB has increased for 14 straight years.

 

 

Jesus man are you dense? Bauer provided almost the exact type of value in 2018 BEFORE the obvious increase in spin rates.

[vaff]

Jesus man are you dense? Bauer provided almost the exact type of value in 2018 BEFORE the obvious increase in spin rates.

 

I’m aware. He did it in a totally different way, though. Perhaps that’s a credit to him? Or maybe it was just an outlier? I mean outside of those two seasons he’s been pretty mediocre, and you’re not talking about a contract that can afford to go to a mediocre player.

[Spanky99]

I’m aware. He did it in a totally different way, though. Perhaps that’s a credit to him? Or maybe it was just an outlier? I mean outside of those two seasons he’s been pretty mediocre, and you’re not talking about a contract that can afford to go to a mediocre player.

 

What did Bauer do to you maam? Your posts rakim the man.

[Spanky99]

Saying what you said is pretty low.

 

And yeah, they’re not similar — Paxton has a much longer track record. And relievers are very fickle.

 

What's low... my bearing voice? Or the difference in value, Yates or Paxton?

[vaff]

What's low... my bearing voice? Or the difference in value, Yates or Paxton?

 

You calling a woman a miserable bitch because she has an issue with Bauer telling people to attack her.

[Spanky99]

You calling a woman a miserable bitch because she has an issue with Bauer telling people to attack her.

 

Yes.... "That's exactly what I'm doing, punk!" lol

[saskjayfan]

Yes.... "That's exactly what I'm doing, punk!" lol

 

Bauer's a great pitcher, but let's not ignore the fact that he can be a prick. He went after a 21 year old college girl on twitter a couple years ago too. He ended up apologizing for that one. He's generally very entertaining on twitter, but he's also easily set off.

[THANOS]

Bauer's a great pitcher, but let's not ignore the fact that he can be a prick. He went after a 21 year old college girl on twitter a couple years ago too. He ended up apologizing for that one. He's generally very entertaining on twitter, but he's also easily set off.

 

He's got thin skin, controversial opinions, and is irritable, but he's a helluva pitcher, and I'd he thrilled to have him.

[Jays24]

Bauer's a great pitcher, but let's not ignore the fact that he can be a prick. He went after a 21 year old college girl on twitter a couple years ago too. He ended up apologizing for that one. He's generally very entertaining on twitter, but he's also easily set off.

 

We can nitpick everyone's life if we really want to. I'm sure everyone now and again has mean or rude to randoms. If that's the worst you have towards him then you're pretty damn lucky...

[Spanky99]

His skin is thick, unlike you guys!'

[max silver]

I’m aware. He did it in a totally different way, though. Perhaps that’s a credit to him? Or maybe it was just an outlier? I mean outside of those two seasons he’s been pretty mediocre, and you’re not talking about a contract that can afford to go to a mediocre player.

 

I look Bauer as having produced elite seasons 2 of the last 3 years. I suspect 2019 was the outlier compared to his new true talent level. If he was hurt as he claims then he can have a pass for that season. I couldn't give half a f*** about what he did prior, that's not particularly important when players unlock new levels of performance in their career. Look at guys like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion etc. as very good Blue Jays examples of players who reached new heights after many seasons of mediocre performance, and sustained that performance for many years afterward as well.

 

There may be a bit of a chance for somebody to acquire an ace level pitcher on a relative bargain contract compared to years past. Look at Stephen Strasburg for example, he received a crazy 7 year $245 million contract from the Nationals despite being older at the time than Bauer is presently. If somebody can snag Bauer with the MLBTR predicted 4 year $128 million deal that's a steal in comparison (admittedly looks very unlikely at this point). Bauer's best seasons are comparable to the best that Strasburg has managed to produce, and Strasburg has historically missed a ton of time due to injury. Projection systems actually appear to like Bauer more in 2021.

[Spanky99]

I look Bauer as having produced elite seasons 2 of the last 3 years. I suspect 2019 was the outlier compared to his new true talent level. If he was hurt as he claims then he can have a pass for that season. I couldn't give half a f*** about what he did prior, that's not particularly important when players unlock new levels of performance in their career. Look at guys like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion etc. as very good Blue Jays examples of players who reached new heights after many seasons of mediocre performance, and sustained that performance for many years afterward as well.

 

There may be a bit of a chance for somebody to acquire an ace level pitcher on a relative bargain contract compared to years past. Look at Stephen Strasburg for example, he received a crazy 7 year $245 million contract from the Nationals despite being older at the time than Bauer is presently. If somebody can snag Bauer with the MLBTR predicted 4 year $128 million deal that's a steal in comparison (admittedly looks very unlikely at this point). Bauer's best seasons are comparable to the best that Strasburg has managed to produce, and Strasburg has historically missed a ton of time due to injury. Projection systems actually appear to like Bauer more in 2021.

 

Trash man...

[dineke]

I look Bauer as having produced elite seasons 2 of the last 3 years. I suspect 2019 was the outlier compared to his new true talent level. If he was hurt as he claims then he can have a pass for that season. I couldn't give half a f*** about what he did prior, that's not particularly important when players unlock new levels of performance in their career. Look at guys like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion etc. as very good Blue Jays examples of players who reached new heights after many seasons of mediocre performance, and sustained that performance for many years afterward as well.

 

There may be a bit of a chance for somebody to acquire an ace level pitcher on a relative bargain contract compared to years past. Look at Stephen Strasburg for example, he received a crazy 7 year $245 million contract from the Nationals despite being older at the time than Bauer is presently. If somebody can snag Bauer with the MLBTR predicted 4 year $128 million deal that's a steal in comparison (admittedly looks very unlikely at this point). Bauer's best seasons are comparable to the best that Strasburg has managed to produce, and Strasburg has historically missed a ton of time due to injury. Projection systems actually appear to like Bauer more in 2021.

 

I'd give Springer's contract to Bauer right now and be very comfortable with it.

[max silver]

Trash man...

 

Bag lady.

[max silver]

I'd give Springer's contract to Bauer right now and be very comfortable with it.

 

Yeah I would too without hesitation. I've had a hard time gauging what Bauer's market actually looks like. Who is competing for his services right now? Most of the typical big spenders look to be missing in action this year, and it appears as though San Diego and New York Mets may be close to finished adding to their clubs at this point. Would the Jays be willing to add two big contracts in one offseason? Mark Shapiro himself insinuated they could add two elite players this offseason, so it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. When they set somebody as a true target they look to do what it takes to bring them aboard. They've added extra years for both Ryu and Springer when other teams looked to be hesitant to do so. With an obvious hole in the starting rotation and the club having added nobody of note other than resigning Ray so far, I do find myself wondering if the front office is leaving budget space open for a possible Bauer addition. Once he's off the market I suspect the rest of the remaining free agent starters are going to sign rather quickly.

[THANOS]

Yeah I would too without hesitation. I've had a hard time gauging what Bauer's market actually looks like. Who is competing for his services right now? Most of the typical big spenders look to be missing in action this year, and it appears as though San Diego and New York Mets may be close to finished adding to their clubs at this point. Would the Jays be willing to add two big contracts in one offseason? Mark Shapiro himself insinuated they could add two elite players this offseason, so it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. When they set somebody as a true target they look to do what it takes to bring them aboard. They've added extra years for both Ryu and Springer when other teams looked to be hesitant to do so. With an obvious hole in the starting rotation and the club having added nobody of note other than resigning Ray so far, I do find myself wondering if the front office is leaving budget space open for a possible Bauer addition. Once he's off the market I suspect the rest of the remaining free agent starters are going to sign rather quickly.

 

Honestly man, same here. I looked into it a it more and a few of the reported teams (Dodgers & Mets) are very close to the Tax and need to extend their core as soon as next season, so I have my doubts they spend on him. Angels have been notorious silent, so not sure if that means they are our or negotiating privately. I'll consider them out for the lack of news we're hearing on them.

 

So, really, that only leaves the Jays & Giants. Both teams are far from the tax, and both have young cores ready for success. The Jays are much closer to that success than the Giants though, and the Giants have to contend with both the Padres & the Dodgers.

 

I honestly believe the Jays have a realistic shot at him if they beat SF's offer.

[Spanky99]

[jaysguy44]

He's got thin skin, controversial opinions, and is irritable, but he's a helluva pitcher, and I'd he thrilled to have him.

wE ArE aLl EqUaL.

 

Her gender is irrelevant

[Orgfiller]

Honestly man, same here. I looked into it a it more and a few of the reported teams (Dodgers & Mets) are very close to the Tax and need to extend their core as soon as next season, so I have my doubts they spend on him. Angels have been notorious silent, so not sure if that means they are our or negotiating privately. I'll consider them out for the lack of news we're hearing on them.

 

So, really, that only leaves the Jays & Giants. Both teams are far from the tax, and both have young cores ready for success. The Jays are much closer to that success than the Giants though, and the Giants have to contend with both the Padres & the Dodgers.

 

I honestly believe the Jays have a realistic shot at him if they beat SF's offer.

 

The Giants don't have a young core at all lol. Their best players are a 30 year old second year man and a post-post hype 30 year old starter who is once again a year away from free agency. Their farm has some intriguing prospects, most of which are teenagers or recently having lost that label and 2-3 years away. They're basically a year or two from beginning to clear some massive bad contracts and are in general completely loaded financially.

[Ray]

Honestly man, same here. I looked into it a it more and a few of the reported teams (Dodgers & Mets) are very close to the Tax and need to extend their core as soon as next season, so I have my doubts they spend on him. Angels have been notorious silent, so not sure if that means they are our or negotiating privately. I'll consider them out for the lack of news we're hearing on them.

 

So, really, that only leaves the Jays & Giants. Both teams are far from the tax, and both have young cores ready for success. The Jays are much closer to that success than the Giants though, and the Giants have to contend with both the Padres & the Dodgers.

 

I honestly believe the Jays have a realistic shot at him if they beat SF's offer.

 

The Giants are odd because their core is comprised of older, quad-A types who have seemingly broken out: Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Darin Ruf, almost all at least 30. This on top of Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford who are already on the older side. They definitely seemed like they overachieved this season, and it's not like they have a good farm system that is producing major league talent just yet. I don't think Bauer chooses SF if he sticks to his guns about wanting to be on team that is competitive.

 

I think the Jays have a good shot too, but I think most teams value him well below his absurd asking price.

[Ray]

I just noticed that we have the 7th best pitching staff according to Depth Charts which seems fairly optimistic. It projects our pitching for 15.9 fWAR, which is better than the Nationals, Braves, & Rays. Seems like their model expects Ray, Stripling, & Roark to bounce back, and it's still bullish on Pearson (2.5 fWAR). I'm confident that Ray and Stripling can bounce back. A little less so on Roark, but I can see him going out there and soaking up innings at a league average basis.

 

Fun fact: Signing Bauer would push us to 2nd best projected pitching staff in the majors!

[vaff]

I look Bauer as having produced elite seasons 2 of the last 3 years. I suspect 2019 was the outlier compared to his new true talent level. If he was hurt as he claims then he can have a pass for that season. I couldn't give half a f*** about what he did prior, that's not particularly important when players unlock new levels of performance in their career. Look at guys like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion etc. as very good Blue Jays examples of players who reached new heights after many seasons of mediocre performance, and sustained that performance for many years afterward as well.

 

There may be a bit of a chance for somebody to acquire an ace level pitcher on a relative bargain contract compared to years past. Look at Stephen Strasburg for example, he received a crazy 7 year $245 million contract from the Nationals despite being older at the time than Bauer is presently. If somebody can snag Bauer with the MLBTR predicted 4 year $128 million deal that's a steal in comparison (admittedly looks very unlikely at this point). Bauer's best seasons are comparable to the best that Strasburg has managed to produce, and Strasburg has historically missed a ton of time due to injury. Projection systems actually appear to like Bauer more in 2021.

 

But does the fact that he produced those two elite seasons in notably different ways cause you concern? That’s a genuine question, because the way I see it is you can look at it as a positive or a negative.

[THANOS]

The Giants don't have a young core at all lol. Their best players are a 30 year old second year man and a post-post hype 30 year old starter who is once again a year away from free agency. Their farm has some intriguing prospects, most of which are teenagers or recently having lost that label and 2-3 years away. They're basically a year or two from beginning to clear some massive bad contracts and are in general completely loaded financially.

 

I guess it depends how Bauer would look at their age, and the the proximity of their farm. If money is equal, from his own admission, he doesn't care about Geography, but does care about winning, so his best chance is with the Jays, if the other mentioned teams don't want to spend into the tax.

[max silver]

But does the fact that he produced those two elite seasons in notably different ways cause you concern? That’s a genuine question, because the way I see it is you can look at it as a positive or a negative.

 

No concern there for me. I would be far more skeptical of Bauer's chance at continued elite production if he had only produced elite seasons after the crazy spin rate increases.