General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[Brownie19]

I think I was just mentioning on the ST training thread that I was going to the game and he was too and we PMd and met up. Game was in Sarasota IIRC

 

Yeah I think that's all correct. It was a great day. 2nd year in a row I won't be at STing. I'll miss it. My kids are at a great age to go - we've been touring around to check out all the different stadiums. I want to check out Atlanta's new one in North Port once we're able to travel again.

 

I really do seem myself retiring in Florida or Arizona - and I'd love to be close to a few different STing stadiums. Hopefully take my grandkids to it one day.

[jaysguy44]

Ironic.

 

Not sure why you're so upset that Toronto will never get a team, it's just reality.

 

I'm a big NFL guy, so it's not like I don't want it to me. It's just weird how rattled some of you guys are.

[G-Snarls]

Ironic.

 

Not sure why you're so upset that Toronto will never get a team, it's just reality.

 

I'm a big NFL guy, so it's not like I don't want it to me. It's just weird how rattled some of you guys are.

 

Would prefer a new expansion team rather than a relocation of the Bills. Even though they're having a good year.

[Spanky__99]

Ironic.

 

Not sure why you're so upset that Toronto will never get a team, it's just reality.

 

I'm a big NFL guy, so it's not like I don't want it to me. It's just weird how rattled some of you guys are.

 

I'm not rattled at all, you're spewing verbal diarrhea, not me. Toronto will get a NFL team... you seem to miss the point I made as they're a Major Sports City haven, NLL gets sold out, TFC gets sold out, Even the Marlie's get 5,000 fans, I don't/can't understand what your point is?

[Virgil_Hiltz]

If Rogers or Bell owned the team...

 

I know you said "Rogers or Bell"..I heard a few yrs ago that its in the NFL constitution that a club owner needs to be an individual and not multiple. Not sure of corporation ownership but I can't

think of one corporation owner in the NFL. Yes, the packers are community owned but they may have been grandfathered in.

 

^someone can correct me...going by memory

[Spanky__99]

I know you said "Rogers or Bell"..I heard a few yrs ago that its in the NFL constitution that a club owner needs to be an individual and not multiple. Not sure of corporation ownership but I can't

think of one corporation owner in the NFL. Yes, the packers are community owned but they may have been grandfathered in.

 

^someone can correct me...going by memory

 

Correct.

[G-Snarls]

I know you said "Rogers or Bell"..I heard a few yrs ago that its in the NFL constitution that a club owner needs to be an individual and not multiple. Not sure of corporation ownership but I can't

think of one corporation owner in the NFL. Yes, the packers are community owned but they may have been grandfathered in.

 

^someone can correct me...going by memory

 

TY

 

Didn't know that

[Brownie19]

Ironic.

 

Not sure why you're so upset that Toronto will never get a team, it's just reality.

 

I'm a big NFL guy, so it's not like I don't want it to me. It's just weird how rattled some of you guys are.

 

You seem to talk a lot in absolutes. You should reconsider that approach.

[Spanky__99]

Ironic.

 

Not sure why you're so upset that Toronto will never get a team, it's just reality.

 

I'm a big NFL guy, so it's not like I don't want it to me. It's just weird how rattled some of you guys are.

 

If you were a big NFL guy, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

 

They're looking for franchises in Mexico and Puerto Rico for expansion, it's going to happen.

[Spanky__99]

No. She was a few seats over

 

Gibby told me he didn't want to make me look bad in the photo LOL

 

I said yeah weren't you recently named one of the sexiest managers in baseball

 

You've met up with fellow EC men of man, lol. Big Cecil, I've met him a couple times, great guy, so passionate. Like many of us.

[jaysguy44]

I'm not rattled at all, you're spewing verbal diarrhea, not me. Toronto will get a NFL team... you seem to miss the point I made as they're a Major Sports City haven, NLL gets sold out, TFC gets sold out, Even the Marlie's get 5,000 fans, I don't/can't understand what your point is?

When will they get a NFL team Spanky, tell me.

 

5 years? 10? 20?

[jaysguy44]

You seem to talk a lot in absolutes. You should reconsider that approach.

Nah, I'm good

[Spanky__99]

When will they get a NFL team Spanky, tell me.

 

5 years? 10? 20?

 

Likely 10 as they can't represent again till then.

[Spanky__99]

Nah, I'm good

 

You do though? lol

[connorp]

NFL expansion fee alone would be prob $2b at least.

[Spanky__99]

NFL expansion fee alone would be prob $2b at least.

 

So what?

[jaysguy44]

You do though? lol

 

Because I'm confident it will never happen.

 

Pretty straightforward, just as you are confident in a lot of your beliefs on here.

[Spanky__99]

Because I'm confident it will never happen.

 

Pretty straightforward, just as you are confident in a lot of your beliefs on here.

 

My beliefs, Springer, Yates, Tanaka/Paxton or Bauer.... confident.

[Krylian]

NFL expansion fee alone would be prob $2b at least.

 

So is that it? You don't think there's any money in Toronto?

[Brownie19]

When will they get a NFL team Spanky, tell me.

 

5 years? 10? 20?

 

Toronto will have an NFL team in exactly 12 years.

 

 

see how stupid that sounds? I mean will Toronto get an NFL team? I think one day they will yes. Is that a guarantee? no. There's a massive range of potential outcomes based on the information we currently have. I'd estimate it's a better than 50% chance we get an NFL team within the next 20 years.

[connorp]

So is that it? You don't think there's any money in Toronto?

 

Well that’d just be the franchise fee but it’s conceivable. Won’t be for the faint of heart though. Someone from up yonder would have to be passionate for it/along with the billions needed. I think US based owners/groups would look at internal possibilities first

[TwistedLogic]

It probably has little to do with the city itself, at least for baseball. The Jays are Canada's team.

 

While you have a point, in that the Blue Jays and Raptors have the benefit of no Canadian competition from coast-to-coast, your argument is also not necessarily strong.

 

There are a massive amount of people in Canada that root for teams like the Red Sox or the Mariners, and just as many bandwagoners that root for the Yankees.

 

Similarly, before the Raptors got good, I knew more Lakers fans in Toronto than I did Raptors fans.

 

You'd have a more convincing argument if the Leafs didn't also have one of the largest online fanbases of any team in the NHL.

[JFD]

Tanaka/Paxton isn't close to good enough. We need Bauer and then trade for Castillo or Hendricks

[connorp]

Tanaka/Paxton isn't close to good enough. We need Bauer and then trade for Castillo or Hendricks

 

I think if healthy Paxton is definitely good enough. Not as good as other guys mentioned but definitely a legit playoff SP. however I wouldn’t bet a $1 he’d be healthy come playoff time

[JFD]

I think if healthy Paxton is definitely good enough. Not as good as other guys mentioned but definitely a legit playoff SP. however I wouldn’t bet a $1 he’d be healthy come playoff time

 

it would be pretty much guaranteed disappointment come playoff time if he lasts that long

[vaff]

Paxton has been a better pitcher than Bauer in his career.

 

I would rather have him on a one year deal, than give Bauer a ridiculous contract based on half a season where he was basically openly cheating.

[max silver]

Paxton has been a better pitcher than Bauer in his career.

 

I would rather have him on a one year deal, than give Bauer a ridiculous contract based on half a season where he was basically openly cheating.

 

At this point of their respective careers they are nowhere close in value, regardless of how you view their careers up until now.

 

Bauer is more than a one hit wonder, he had an elite season in 2018 with the Indians. He produced 5.8 FWAR/BWAR in only 27 starts. Let's surmise that he was able to make the full 32 starts that season , that extrapolates to 6.9 WAR. That is a pretty similar pace to his results in 2020, which would extrapolate to 7.3 WAR over a full season. The elite results in 2018 were attained without the suspicious spin rate increases as well, so it's not like he needs to use whatever grip enhancing substance(s) he was likely utilizing in 2020 for elite production. For what it's worth his spin rates look to have been improving every year since the Statcast era began.

 

Bauer looks to have broken out in 2018 and hit new levels of performance. In 2019 he has gone on record saying that he was dealing with injuries for much of the year, as he was negatively affected by partially torn ankle ligaments and back spasms which affected his mechanics. Despite that he battled through the season and still managed a very respectable 3.3 FWAR in 213 innings. Looking at the fangraphs pitching leaderboard for the last three seasons he ranks 6th among starting pitchers. This is a pitcher that induces soft contact, piles up strikeouts and has typically been pretty healthy throughout his career. The man is in the upper echelon of MLB starters, and he is going to be paid accordingly.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

[Krylian]

Paxton has been a better pitcher than Bauer in his career.

 

I would rather have him on a one year deal, than give Bauer a ridiculous contract based on half a season where he was basically openly cheating.

 

Walter Johnson has a career 164.5 career WAR. Dig up his corpse and get him signed.

 

Exaggeration? Yes. But Paxton of today is not Paxton of prime. Doesn't matter what he was before... He's not that now.

[vaff]

Paxton has been just fine outside of 20 innings last year. You’re banking on the same thing you’re banking on with Kirby Yates. And you’re likely only looking at giving him a 1 year contract, as well.

 

Bauer on the other hand is going to command a huge contract, and has several red flags both on and off the field. He has basically been openly cheating, which the MLB will likely eventually put a stop to, because it’s it’s been hurting the aesthetics of the sport. And then there are things like this:

 

[max silver]

Paxton has been just fine outside of 20 innings last year. You’re banking on the same thing you’re banking on with Kirby Yates. And you’re likely only looking at giving him a 1 year contract, as well.

 

Bauer on the other hand is going to command a huge contract, and has several red flags both on and off the field. He has basically been openly cheating, which the MLB will likely eventually put a stop to, because it’s it’s been hurting the aesthetics of the sport. And then there are things like this:

 

 

Trevor Bauer has no performance related red flags. Pretty much every pitcher in baseball is using something to enhance their grip, so unless MLB decides to fully crack down on everybody Bauer is going to be perfectly fine to continue doing what he's doing. Besides the alleged cheating (we have no proof, only suspicions at this point) he's produced elite results with spin rates within his typical career norms before 2020. He typically stays healthy, limits walks, provides plenty of innings, induces weak contact and racks up strikeouts. This is an elite pitcher by any measure that you want to look at.

 

James Paxton is a broken down oft injured starter who you can bank on missing several starts every season. He is coming off of back surgery and a forearm injury in 2020, and his results on the field were terrible. There is a good chance with a full off season to strengthen up that he will bounce back, but he is several tiers behind Trevor Bauer in the ranks of starting pitchers.

 

There is no denying that Bauer is a prick off of the field (sometimes on the field too, thinking of the ball tossed into the center field stands episode) but he's one of baseballs best starters. Signing this guy instantly elevates the Jays into true contender status. Paxton would be a nice fallback option banking on a bounceback season, but he's far from a sure thing to provide value on whatever contract he obtains. Bauer has a potential ceiling of 7 WAR with a good season by his standards, and a poor season by his recent standards would be 3 WAR. A good season for Paxton places him in the 3-3.5 WAR range, which is the lower range you could reasonably expect for Bauer.