GDT: NY Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays: Game 2 - Sept 22 2020

[Spanky99]

Well, Grichuk has been playing like a bench player since the start of 2019. Yeah they should bench him. Sad!

 

You'd rather Davis in the lineup?

[Laika]

You'd rather Davis in the lineup?

 

It's too late in 2020 to make any drastic changes but going into 2021, I think a guy like Davis has earned the chance to push Grichuk. If this was 60 games into a 162 game season then yeah, I think Davis should get a crack at regular starts.

 

Ideally someone better than either, though. Jackie Bradley Jr. is an interesting FA target to me. Everything depends on cost but a true CF and a left handed hitter is really the ideal complement to a Gurriel-Grichuk-Teoscar incumbent outfield.

 

Kevin Pillar is a similar player to JBJ and he really struggled to get a job this offseason so maybe there is a chance JBJ won't cost Tanner Roark overpay money.

[Spanky99]

It's too late in 2020 to make any drastic changes but going into 2021, I think a guy like Davis has earned the chance to push Grichuk.

 

Ideally someone better than either, though. Jackie Bradley Jr. is an interesting FA target to me. Everything depends on cost but a true CF and a left handed hitter is really the ideal complement to a Gurriel-Grichuk-Teoscar incumbent outfield.

 

I'd be down with JBJ, no doubt. I agree with the former as well, as that's what I was asking. No way Davis see's time other than a late defensive upgrade or injury.

[glory]

If the Jays are willing to use Grichuk as a 4th OF, then JBJ would be a great target. LH, an actual CF, and can be platooned if necessary. If Grichuk would cry about being a bench player, then try to trade him (for nothing because he has no value), and use Davis as the 4th OF in that scenario. I just don't see Grich as a starting CF on a good team, and he doesn't hit enough for RF. Ideal 4th outfielder if both team and player are ok with it, but my hatred of Grich in general makes me prefer Davis as the 4th OF.

[Brownie19]

If the Jays are willing to use Grichuk as a 4th OF, then JBJ would be a great target. LH, an actual CF, and can be platooned if necessary. If Grichuk would cry about being a bench player, then try to trade him (for nothing because he has no value), and use Davis as the 4th OF in that scenario. I just don't see Grich as a starting CF on a good team, and he doesn't hit enough for RF. Ideal 4th outfielder if both team and player are ok with it, but my hatred of Grich in general makes me prefer Davis as the 4th OF.

 

Grich was team captain for the intersquad games. He's gonna get butt hurt if he's the 4th OFer with Derek Fisher.

[Jimcanuck]

Nah you don't dump Roark and eat his salary. Next year with hopefully a full spring training, etc, let's see how he does in a contract year. At worst, abuse his arm out of the bullpen as the mop up guy.

[max silver]

I'd rather the club aim higher and make a push to sign George Springer to play center field.

[Orgfiller]

It's too late in 2020 to make any drastic changes but going into 2021, I think a guy like Davis has earned the chance to push Grichuk. If this was 60 games into a 162 game season then yeah, I think Davis should get a crack at regular starts.

 

Ideally someone better than either, though. Jackie Bradley Jr. is an interesting FA target to me. Everything depends on cost but a true CF and a left handed hitter is really the ideal complement to a Gurriel-Grichuk-Teoscar incumbent outfield.

 

Kevin Pillar is a similar player to JBJ and he really struggled to get a job this offseason so maybe there is a chance JBJ won't cost Tanner Roark overpay money.

 

Not saying we shouldn't explore an upgrade on Grichuk, but is JBJ really that guy? He's a better defender than Grichuk - 99th percentile vs 81st percentile in the latter's case, but a worse hitter so it's pretty much a wash. I don't think a league average hitter Grichuk with ~80th percentile CF defense is a bench player, he's just not necessarily a "first division regular" to use a bit of an old term, but that's probably fine? If he's a boring 2 WAR player over a full season with stretches where he carries the team offensively and others where he can't put the bat on the ball we can probably live with that. Albeit, it comes at a higher cost than most teams would pay for such a player, but not franchise crippling by any means.

[Brownie19]

We had JBJ in CF...his name was Pillar and everyone wanted the Jays to move on before he reached the age of 30. Now people want to sign JBJ at age 30? f*** that.

[Jimcanuck]

Not saying we shouldn't explore an upgrade on Grichuk, but is JBJ really that guy? He's a better defender than Grichuk - 99th percentile vs 81st percentile in the latter's case, but a worse hitter so it's pretty much a wash. I don't think a league average hitter Grichuk with ~80th percentile CF defense is a bench player, he's just not necessarily a "first division regular" to use a bit of an old term, but that's probably fine? If he's a boring 2 WAR player over a full season with stretches where he carries the team offensively and others where he can't put the bat on the ball we can probably live with that. Albeit, it comes at a higher cost than most teams would pay for such a player, but not franchise crippling by any means.

 

I think Laika is referring to JBJ as primarily a bench guy. He can bring speed on the basepaths, late inning defense, injury insurance, and spot starter duties. A useful player.

[Deadpool]

We had JBJ in CF...his name was Pillar and everyone wanted the Jays to move on before he reached the age of 30. Now people want to sign JBJ at age 30? f*** that.

 

I'm not super interested in JBJ, frankly.

[Orgfiller]

I think Laika is referring to JBJ as primarily a bench guy. He can bring speed on the basepaths, late inning defense, injury insurance, and spot starter duties. A useful player.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to that at a reasonable price, but I don't think JBJ is signing to a reasonable contract if he's going to be a bench player. His obvious comp in Pillar signed to be a starter and was even traded for (lol @ the Rockies) to be a team's starter in a playoff push.

[Spanky99]

I'd rather the club aim higher and make a push to sign George Springer to play center field.

 

Hells Yeah!

[glory]

Grich was team captain for the intersquad games. He's gonna get butt hurt if he's the 4th OFer with Derek Fisher.

 

Probably, but other than 3B, the biggest upgrade the team can probably make right now is CF. Grichuk has been a replacement level player now for two seasons (small sample in 2020 but still). Nothing seems to be trending up for him. I'm not sure the Jays can keep sticking him in a starting role and hoping for better results. He'd actually a really good 4th OF, though. Streaky enough to start whenever he's hot (July/August every single year), and can cover multiple OF positions. But yeah, he'll likely complain if he were moved to the bench.

 

If George Springer is possible, then Grichuk can either enjoy the bench or pack his bags.

[Spanky99]

Probably, but other than 3B, the biggest upgrade the team can probably make right now is CF. Grichuk has been a replacement level player now for two seasons (small sample in 2020 but still). Nothing seems to be trending up for him. I'm not sure the Jays can keep sticking him in a starting role and hoping for better results. He'd actually a really good 4th OF, though. Streaky enough to start whenever he's hot (July/August every single year), and can cover multiple OF positions. But yeah, he'll likely complain if he were moved to the bench.

 

If George Springer is possible, then Grichuk can either enjoy the bench or pack his bags.

 

Why would he want to leave this team whilst getting paid, there's plenty of AB's for a 4th OF'er. And this team's on the rise. Oh yeah, Grichuk isn't replacement level.

Edited September 25, 2020 by Spanky99

[Laika]

Not saying we shouldn't explore an upgrade on Grichuk, but is JBJ really that guy? He's a better defender than Grichuk - 99th percentile vs 81st percentile in the latter's case, but a worse hitter so it's pretty much a wash. I don't think a league average hitter Grichuk with ~80th percentile CF defense is a bench player, he's just not necessarily a "first division regular" to use a bit of an old term, but that's probably fine? If he's a boring 2 WAR player over a full season with stretches where he carries the team offensively and others where he can't put the bat on the ball we can probably live with that. Albeit, it comes at a higher cost than most teams would pay for such a player, but not franchise crippling by any means.

 

1) I don't really buy the statcast defense reading on Grichuk. Just doesn't pass the sniff test so far. Not sure what is going on there.

2) I'm thinking of JBJ as essentially a platoon player. You could platoon him in CF with Grichuk but if Grichuk is on a heater you could just spell Lourdes and Teoscar against some righties, let them DH or whatever. I don't know how you sell the player on it but a "4th OF" who hits opposite of the three incumbents and is a clear defensive upgrade is going to play a lot.

 

I just looked for a solid LH CF option in the 2021 free agent pile and saw exactly one of them. Trade might have better options.

[Spanky99]

What would JBJ ask, I have no clue considering this f***ed up season? 8-9 AAV... maybe?

[Laika]

What would JBJ ask, I have no clue considering this f***ed up season? 8-9 AAV... maybe?

 

Hard to say. The FA market has not been friendly to average-ish players like him in the last couple of years.

[Spanky99]

Hard to say. The FA market has not been friendly to average-ish players like him in the last couple of years.

 

Yeah, that and this year, he might be cheaper. The FA will be interesting with guys like him across all positions. Studs will get paid. I think JBJ with Grichuk would be a subtle upgrade at minimal cost. Unless they swing for the fences with a Springer. Sexy!

[Boxcar]

Probably, but other than 3B, the biggest upgrade the team can probably make right now is CF. Grichuk has been a replacement level player now for two seasons (small sample in 2020 but still). Nothing seems to be trending up for him. I'm not sure the Jays can keep sticking him in a starting role and hoping for better results. He'd actually a really good 4th OF, though. Streaky enough to start whenever he's hot (July/August every single year), and can cover multiple OF positions. But yeah, he'll likely complain if he were moved to the bench.

 

If George Springer is possible, then Grichuk can either enjoy the bench or pack his bags.

 

The small sample in 2020 has him decidedly above replacement level. The MVP this year will have like 3 WAR. That's a weak point to make.

[connorp]

Yeah if you can’t get more than 1 high quality or just at least “legit” quality SP (if you even get that), might as well make it up with more offense. Springer would be sweet. Gri would still get plenty of ABs

 

“The best defense is more offense” philosophy

[Orgfiller]

Yeah if you can’t get more than 1 high quality or just at least “legit” quality SP (if you even get that), might as well make it up with more offense. Springer would be sweet. Gri would still get plenty of ABs

 

“The best defense is more offense” philosophy

 

This implies that Springer isn't also a solid defender, which is far from the case. DRS and OAA think he's firmly above average, and UZR thinks he's roughly average/slightly above. He'll be average at worst for probably 2-3 more years barring injuries. He's an excellent player.

[glory]

The small sample in 2020 has him decidedly above replacement level. The MVP this year will have like 3 WAR. That's a weak point to make.

 

He has a 0.9 WAR in his last 844 plate appearances (2019-20). He has a 0.4 WAR now, which fluctuates a lot due to small sample, but defensive metrics on FG do not like him in CF, he's been a negative base runner since joining the Jays, and whatever adjustment he made in 2019 to lower his strike outs has lessened his biggest strength (power/exit velo/hard hit%). Since 2016, which 2226 plate appearances, he has a .290 OBP and 100 wRC+. Not sure what type of performance you'd be expecting out of him if 2020 were 162 games, but he looks every bit the sub 1 WAR player he was last season, and that's with most of this season happening in August which is like the only month (along with July) that he usually does anything every year. I was cautiously optimistic that the lower K% might lead to something, but he's the same guy. He's a good 4th OF given a starting OF's contract and responsibility. Replacement level or slightly above is semantics. It's not good either way.

Edited September 24, 2020 by glory

[connorp]

This implies that Springer isn't also a solid defender, which is far from the case. DRS and OAA think he's firmly above average, and UZR thinks he's roughly average/slightly above. He'll be average at worst for probably 2-3 more years barring injuries. He's an excellent player.

 

Yeah I muddled that. I meant more offense for lack of pitching. But that didn’t come with the catchphrase